Price Transmission and Effects of Exchange Rates on Domestic Commodity Prices via Offshore and Currency Hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.

Activités professionnelles et qualité de l'air des parcs de stationnement couvert : rapport d'expertise collective

[Table des matières] 1. Contexte, objet et modalités de traitement de la saisine. - 2. Préambule. - 3. Caractérisation des parcs de stationnement couverts et de leurs activités professionnelles en France (enquête Afsset). - 4. Observations de terrain et analyse d'activités professionnelles exercées dans les parcs de stationnement couverts (étude Anact). - 5. Evaluation des risques sanitaires. - 6. Recommandations. - Bibliographie. - Annexe 1 : Lettre de saisine. - Annexe 2 : Présentation des positions divergentes. - Annexe 3 : Synthèse des déclarations publiques d'intérêts des experts par rapport au champ de la saisine. - Annexe 4 : Réglementation et recommandations institutionnelles concernant la qualité de l'air dans les parcs de stationnement couverts, et l'hygiène et la sécurité des travailleurs. - Annexe 5 : Etude de coparly sur la mesure de polluants atmosphériques dans les parcs de stationnement - Informations générales. - Annexe 6 : Dépassement des valeurs cibles Afsset" limitant les risques pour la santé des travailleurs dans les parcs de stationnement (Coparly, 2009). - Annexe 7 : Enquête Asset - Méthode d'identification du code NAF le plus adapté. - Annexe 8 : Enquête Afsset - Questionnaire d'enquête. - Annexe 9 : Enquête Afsset - Villes d'implantation des parcs inclus dans l'étude. - Annexe 10 : Rapport de l'Anact : Activité professionnelle et qualité de l'air dans les parcs couverts de stationnement. - Annexe 11 : Résultats de mesures de la campagne du LCPP utilisés pour les scénarios d'exposition. - Annexe 12 : Résultats issus de l'enquête Afsset sur les activités professionnelles exercées dans les parcs de stationnement couverts. - Annexe 13 : Concentrations ubiquitaires dans différents "micro-environnements" (Afsset, 2007). - Annexe 14 : Facteurs d'abattement entre concentrations dans le local d'exploitation et dans le parc. - Annexe 15 : Limites des valeurs toxicologiques de référence (Afsset, 2007). - Annexe 16 : Exemples de solutions pour améliorer la qualité de l'air et réduire l'exposition des travailleurs.

Money Cycles

Operating overheads are widespread and lead to concentrated bursts of activity. To transfer resources between active and idle spells, agents demand financial assets. Futures contracts and lotteries are unsuitable, as they have substantial overheads of their own.We show that money – under efficient monetary policy – is a liquid asset that leads to efficient allocations. Under all other policies, agents follow inefficient “money cycle” patterns of saving, activity, and inactivity. Agents spend their money too quickly – a “hot potato effect of inflation”. We show that inflation can stimulate inefficiently high aggregate output.

Primary Commodity Prices: Co-movements, Common Factors and Fundamentals

The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, we document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to a common factor. Within a Factor Augmented VAR approach, real interest rate and uncertainty, as postulated by a simple asset pricing model, are both found to be negatively related to this common factor. This evidence is robust to the inclusion of demand and supply shocks, which both positively impact on the co-movement of commodity prices.

Multiple Objectives in Monetary Policy: A de Facto Analysis for ‘Advanced’ Countries

A statistical methodology is developed by which realised outcomes can be used to identify, for calendar years between 1974 and 2012, when policy makers in ‘advanced’ economies have successfully pursued single objectives of different kinds, or multiple objectives. A simple criterion is then used to distinguish between multiple objectives pure and simple and multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint. The overall and individual country results which this methodology produces seem broadly plausible. Unconditional and conditional analyses of the inflation and growth associated with different types of objectives reveal that multiple objectives subject to a price stability constraint are associated with roughly as good economic performance as the single objective of inflation. A proposal is then made as to how the remit of an inflation-targeting central bank could be adjusted to allow it to pursue other objectives in extremis without losing the credibility effects associated with inflation targeting.

Remains of the day: Biliary complications related to single-port laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

AIM: To assesse the rate of bile duct injuries (BDI) and overall biliary complications during single-port laparoscopic cholecystectomy (SPLC) compared to conventional laparoscopic cholecystectomy (CLC). METHODS: SPLC has recently been proposed as an innovative surgical approach for gallbladder surgery. So far, its safety with respect to bile duct injuries has not been specifically evaluated. A systematic review of the literature published between January 1990 and November 2012 was performed. Randomized controlled trials (RCT) comparing SPLC versus CLC reporting BDI rate and overall biliary complications were included. The quality of RCT was assessed using the Jadad score. Analysis was made by performing a meta-analysis, using Review Manager 5.2. This study was based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. A retrospective study including all retrospective reports on SPLC was also performed alongside. RESULTS: From 496 publications, 11 RCT including 898 patients were selected for meta-analysis. No studies were rated as high quality (Jadad score ≥ 4). Operative indications included benign gallbladder disease operated in an elective setting in all studies, excluding all emergency cases and acute cholecystitis. The median follow-up was 1 mo (range 0.03-18 mo). The incidence of BDI was 0.4% for SPLC and 0% for CLC; the difference was not statistically different (P = 0.36). The incidence of overall biliary complication was 1.6% for SPLC and 0.5% for CLC, the difference did not reached statistically significance (P = 0.21, 95%CI: 0.66-15). Sixty non-randomized trials including 3599 patients were also analysed. The incidence of BDI reported then was 0.7%. CONCLUSION: The safety of SPLC cannot be assumed, based on the current evidence. Hence, this new technology cannot be recommended as standard technique for laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

Information Dispersion and Equilibrium Multiplicity

This paper studies the implications of correlation of private signals about the liquidation value of a risky asset in a variation of a standard noisy rational expectations model in which traders receive endowment shocks which are private information and have a common component. We …nd that a necessary condition to generate multiple linear partially revealing rational expectations equilibria is the existence of several sources of information dispersion. In this context equilibrium multiplicity tends to occur when information is more dispersed. A necessary condition to have strategic complementarity in information acquisition is to have mul- tiple equilibria. When the equilibrium is unique there is strategic substi- tutability in information acquisition, corroborating the result obtained in Grossman and Stiglitz (1980). JEL Classi…cation: D82, D83, G14 Keywords: Multiplicity of equilibria, strategic complementarity, asym- metric information.

Una explicación del conflicto social sobre energía eólica en la comarca de la Terra Alta en Cataluña

El estudio investiga las razones que explican un conflicto sobre la instalación de parques eólicos en Terra Alta, una comarca rural de Cataluña. Identificamos tres razones principales. Primero, y de acuerdo con el marco conceptual de ecología política, el conflicto eólico forma parte de un conflicto más generalizado sobre la ‘macro-concentración’ de instalaciones energéticas en el sur de Cataluña que generan energía y beneficios económicos principalmente para el centro del desarrollo económico catalán. Segundo, el impacto paisajístico de los proyectos eólicos choca con iniciativas locales que impulsan el paisaje como un activo valioso capaz de sustentar la vida en la comarca. Por último, desequilibrios de poder en el sistema formal de toma de decisiones sobre parques eólicos impiden la inclusión de valores locales como criterios en el proceso de toma de decisiones y eso también genera conflicto. Para un desarrollo sostenible de energía eólica, la importancia del potencial eólico como criterio principal de localización debe ser reevaluada, y la negociación de la distribución de beneficios debe hacerse en la forma más abierta posible.

Présentation de l'adaptation française de « l'échelle de coparentage » de McHale pour familles avec jeunes enfants [Presentation of the french adaptation of McHale's coparenting scale for families with young children.]

The aim of this paper is to present McHale's coparenting scale,a self-administered questionnaire enabling assessment of the quality of coparenting, and first steps in structural and construct validation of the French version. A total of 41 French speaking Swiss families and 84 US families completed this questionnaire and the Dyadic Adjustment Scale, a measure of marital satisfaction. The results of the Swiss families correspond to those of US families: first, items distributed into four factors (family integrity, conflict, affection and disparagement) and second, a partial link was found between quality of coparenting and marital adjustment. This finding supports the construct validity of the questionnaire, reflecting the established link between these two family sub-systems. Given that coparenting quality has a major influence on children's socio-affective development, the questionnaire will find great use in assessing not just negative features of coparenting, such as conflicts and disparagement, but also positive components such as warmth and support. This will be an important asset for research as well as clinical purposes.

Multi-level SLA-driven resource management on Cloud Providers

Nowadays, service providers in the Cloud offer complex services ready to be used as it was a commodity like water or electricity to their customers with any other extra effort for them. However, providing these services implies a high management effort which requires a lot of human interaction. Furthermore, an efficient resource management mechanism considering only provider's resources is, though necessary, not enough, because the provider's profit is limited by the amount of resources it owns. Dynamically outsourcing resources to other providers in response to demand variation avoids this problem and makes the provider to get more profit. A key technology for achieving these goals is virtualization which facilitates provider's management and provides on-demand virtual environments, which are isolated and consolidated in order to achieve a better utilization of the provider's resources. Nevertheless, dealing with some virtualization capabilities implies an effort for the user in order to take benefit from them. In order to avoid this problem, we are contributing the research community with a virtualized environment manager which aims to provide virtual machines that fulfils with the user requirements. Another challenge is sharing resources among different federated Cloud providers while exploiting the features of virtualization in a new approach for facilitating providers' management. This project aims for reducing provider's costs and at the same time fulfilling the quality of service agreed with the customers while maximizing the provider's revenue. It considers resource management at several layers, namely locally to each node in the provider, among different nodes in the provider, and among different federated providers. This latter layer supports the novel capabilities of outsourcing when the local resources are not enough to fulfil the users demand, and offering resources to other providers when the local resources are underused.

Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity

We study a general static noisy rational expectations model where investors have private information about asset payoffs, with common and private components, and about their own exposure to an aggregate risk factor, and derive conditions for existence and uniqueness (or multiplicity) of equilibria. We find that a main driver of the characterization of equilibria is whether the actions of investors are strategic substitutes or complements. This latter property in turn is driven by the strength of a private learning channel from prices, arising from the multidimensional sources of asymmetric information, in relation to the usual public learning channel. When the private learning channel is strong (weak) in relation to the public we have strong (weak) strategic complementarity in actions and potentially multiple (unique) equilibria. The results enable a precise characterization of whether information acquisition decisions are strategic substitutes or complements. We find that the strategic substitutability in information acquisition result obtained in Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) is robust. JEL Classification: D82, D83, G14 Keywords: Rational expectations equilibrium, asymmetric information, risk exposure, hedging, supply information, information acquisition.

Cronyism in Business, Public Sector and Politics

This paper contrasts the incentives for cronyism in business, the public sector and politics within an agency problem model with moral hazard. The analysis is focused on the institutional differences between private, public and political organizations. In business, when facing a residual claimant contract, a chief manager ends up with a relatively moderate …rst-best level of cronyism within a …firm. The institutional framework of the public sector does not allow explicit contracting, which leads to a more severe cronyism problem within public organizations. Finally, it is shown that the nature of political appointments (such that the subordinate's reappointment is conditioned on the chief's re-election) together with implicit contracting makes political cronyism the most extreme case. JEL classifi…cation: D72, D73, D86. Keywords: Cronyism; Meritocracy; Manager; Bureaucrat; Politician.

Inteligencia emocional: pequeñas virtudes del directivo

Aquest treball té com a objectiu analitzar la importància de la Intel·ligència Emocional en las funcions del manager. Veurem quines són les competències més importants que es requereixen en el lloc del directiu. Ens preguntarem si realment aspectes com la empatia, la iniciativa i el compromís són més valorats en aquestes posicions que les habilitats financeres, comercials o la capacitat d’anàlisi del negoci, pròpies de l’àmbit intel·lectual. En primer lloc, veurem els conceptes bàsics dels que està composta la Intel·ligència Emocional, els quals aniran apareixen durant el treball. A continuació contrastarem les competències més importants segons els experts en Recursos Humans d’avui dia amb les virtuts clàssiques dels filòsofs Aristòtil i Sant Tomàs d’Aquino. Como a part pràctica, analitzarem els resultats obtinguts de l’enquesta realitzada a vint directius de l’àrea de Recursos Humans sobre les competències i les virtuts que més aprecien en els seus empleats y quines troben a faltar en aquests. D’aquesta manera, comprovarem si la teoria vista anteriorment coincideix amb la realitat de les empreses existents. Per finalitzar, veurem alguns mètodes i vies per poder desenvolupar i ampliar la nostra Intel·ligència Emocional, tant a nivell professional com personal. Tècniques com la reflexió mental o el ioga ens poden ajudar a detectar aptituds latents en nosaltres i potenciar-les per a que es converteixin en competències o virtuts òptimes

Escritorio del gestor

El proyecto tiene por finalidad crear una aplicación multifunción que permita a un gestor visualizar la información más relevante e importante respecto al conjunto de colaboradores que tiene a su cargo y que puede ser útil en la toma de decisiones a corto y largo plazo. Dicho proyecto se ha desarrollado en la delegación de UNIT4 Ibérica de Barberà del Vallès.