929 resultados para area under the curve
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OBJECTIVES: To prospectively assess the stiffness of incidentally discovered focal liver lesions (FLL) with no history of chronic liver disease or extrahepatic cancer using shearwave elastography (SWE). METHODS: Between June 2011 and May 2012, all FLL fortuitously discovered on ultrasound examination were prospectively included. For each lesion, stiffness was measured (kPa). Characterization of the lesion relied on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and/or contrast-enhanced ultrasound, or biopsy. Tumour stiffness was analysed using ANOVA and non-parametric Mann-Whitney tests. RESULTS: 105 lesions were successfully evaluated in 73 patients (61 women, 84%) with a mean age of 44.8 (range: 20‒75). The mean stiffness was 33.3 ± 12.7 kPa for the 60 focal nodular hyperplasia (FNH), 19.7 ± 9.8 k Pa for the 17 hepatocellular adenomas (HCA), 17.1 ± 7 kPa for the 20 haemangiomas, 11.3 ± 4.3 kPa for the five focal fatty sparing, 34.1 ± 7.3 kPa for the two cholangiocarcinomas, and 19.6 kPa for one hepatocellular carcinoma (p < 0.0001). There was no difference between the benign and the malignant groups (p = 0.64). FNHs were significantly stiffer than HCAs (p < 0.0001). Telangiectatic/inflammatory HCAs were significantly stiffer than the steatotic HCAs (p = 0.014). The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) for differentiating FNH from other lesions was 0.86 ± 0.04. CONCLUSION: SWE may provide additional information for the characterization of FFL, and may help in differentiating FNH from HCAs, and in subtyping HCAs. KEY POINTS: ? SWE might be helpful for the characterization of solid focal liver lesions ? SWE cannot differentiate benign from malignant liver lesions ? FNHs are significantly stiffer than other benign lesions ? Telangiectatic/inflammatory HCA are significantly stiffer than steatotic ones.
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Maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) is a widely used algorithm for predicting species distributions across space and time. Properly assessing the uncertainty in such predictions is non-trivial and requires validation with independent datasets. Notably, model complexity (number of model parameters) remains a major concern in relation to overfitting and, hence, transferability of Maxent models. An emerging approach is to validate the cross-temporal transferability of model predictions using paleoecological data. In this study, we assess the effect of model complexity on the performance of Maxent projections across time using two European plant species (Alnus giutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Corylus avellana L) with an extensive late Quaternary fossil record in Spain as a study case. We fit 110 models with different levels of complexity under present time and tested model performance using AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and AlCc (corrected Akaike Information Criterion) through the standard procedure of randomly partitioning current occurrence data. We then compared these results to an independent validation by projecting the models to mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climatic conditions in Spain to assess their ability to predict fossil pollen presence-absence and abundance. We find that calibrating Maxent models with default settings result in the generation of overly complex models. While model performance increased with model complexity when predicting current distributions, it was higher with intermediate complexity when predicting mid-Holocene distributions. Hence, models of intermediate complexity resulted in the best trade-off to predict species distributions across time. Reliable temporal model transferability is especially relevant for forecasting species distributions under future climate change. Consequently, species-specific model tuning should be used to find the best modeling settings to control for complexity, notably with paleoecological data to independently validate model projections. For cross-temporal projections of species distributions for which paleoecological data is not available, models of intermediate complexity should be selected.
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BACKGROUND: High interindividual variability in plasma concentrations of risperidone and its active metabolite, 9-hydroxyrisperidone, may lead to suboptimal drug concentration. OBJECTIVE: Using a population pharmacokinetic approach, we aimed to characterize the genetic and non-genetic sources of variability affecting risperidone and 9-hydroxyrisperidone pharmacokinetics, and relate them to common side effects. METHODS: Overall, 150 psychiatric patients (178 observations) treated with risperidone were genotyped for common polymorphisms in NR1/2, POR, PPARα, ABCB1, CYP2D6 and CYP3A genes. Plasma risperidone and 9-hydroxyrisperidone were measured, and clinical data and common clinical chemistry parameters were collected. Drug and metabolite concentrations were analyzed using non-linear mixed effect modeling (NONMEM(®)). Correlations between trough concentrations of the active moiety (risperidone plus 9-hydroxyrisperidone) and common side effects were assessed using logistic regression and linear mixed modeling. RESULTS: The cytochrome P450 (CYP) 2D6 phenotype explained 52 % of interindividual variability in risperidone pharmacokinetics. The area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) of the active moiety was found to be 28 % higher in CYP2D6 poor metabolizers compared with intermediate, extensive and ultrarapid metabolizers. No other genetic markers were found to significantly affect risperidone concentrations. 9-hydroxyrisperidone elimination was decreased by 26 % with doubling of age. A correlation between trough predicted concentration of the active moiety and neurologic symptoms was found (p = 0.03), suggesting that a concentration >40 ng/mL should be targeted only in cases of insufficient, or absence of, response. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic polymorphisms of CYP2D6 play an important role in risperidone, 9-hydroxyrisperidone and active moiety plasma concentration variability, which were associated with common side effects. These results highlight the importance of a personalized dosage adjustment during risperidone treatment.
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BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to confirm the prognostic value of pancreatic stone protein (PSP) in patients with severe infections requiring ICU management and to develop and validate a model to enhance mortality prediction by combining severity scores with biomarkers. METHODS: We enrolled prospectively patients with severe sepsis or septic shock in mixed tertiary ICUs in Switzerland (derivation cohort) and Brazil (validation cohort). Severity scores (APACHE [Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation] II or Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS] II) were combined with biomarkers obtained at the time of diagnosis of sepsis, including C-reactive-protein, procalcitonin (PCT), and PSP. Logistic regression models with the lowest prediction errors were selected to predict in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Mortality rates of patients with septic shock enrolled in the derivation cohort (103 out of 158) and the validation cohort (53 out of 91) were 37% and 57%, respectively. APACHE II and PSP were significantly higher in dying patients. In the derivation cohort, the models combining either APACHE II, PCT, and PSP (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.721; 95% CI, 0.632-0.812) or SAPS II, PCT, and PSP (AUC, 0.710; 95% CI, 0.617-0.802) performed better than each individual biomarker (AUC PCT, 0.534; 95% CI, 0.433-0.636; AUC PSP, 0.665; 95% CI, 0.572-0.758) or severity score (AUC APACHE II, 0.638; 95% CI, 0.543-0.733; AUC SAPS II, 0.598; 95% CI, 0.499-0.698). These models were externally confirmed in the independent validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed the prognostic value of PSP in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock requiring ICU management. A model combining severity scores with PCT and PSP improves mortality prediction in these patients.
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Objective To compare the capacity of mammography, sonoelastography, B-mode ultrasonography and histological analysis to differentiate benign from malignant breast lesions. Materials and Methods A total of 12 histopathologically confirmed breast lesions were documented. The lesions were assessed by means of mammography, B-mode ultrasonography and sonoelastography, and histopathological analysis was utilized as a gold standard. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the mentioned techniques. Results Sensitivity and specificity in the differentiation between benign and malignant lesions were respectively 100% and 50% for mammography, 100% and 71% for B-mode ultrasonography, and 67% and 83% for sonoelastography. The area under the ROC curve was calculated for the three imaging modalities and corresponded to 0.792 for mammography, 0.847 for B-mode ultrasonography, and 0.806 for sonoelastography. Conclusion Sonoelastography demonstrated higher specificity and lower sensitivity as compared with mammography and B-mode ultrasonography. On the other hand, B-mode ultrasonography had the largest area under the ROC curve. Sonoelastography has demonstrated to be a promising technique to detect and evaluate breast lesions, and could potentially reduce the number of unnecessary biopsies.
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JXTA is a peer-to-peer (P2P) middleware whichhas undergone successive iterations through its 10 years of history, slowly incorporating a security baseline that may cater to different applications and services. However, in order to appeal to a broader set of secure scenarios, it would be interesting to take into consideration more advanced capabilities, such as anonymity.There are several proposals on anonymous protocols that can be applied in the context of a P2P network, but it is necessary to be able to choose the right one given each application¿s needs. In this paper, we provide an experimental evaluation of two relevant protocols, each one belonging to a different category of approaches to anonymity: unimessage and split message. Webase our analysis on two scenarios, with stable and non-stable peers, and three metrics: round trip-time (RTT), node processing time and reliability.
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I reconsider the short-term effects of fiscal policy when both government spending and taxes are allowed to respond to the level of public debt. I embed the long-term government budget constraint in a VAR, and apply this common trends model to US quarterly data. The results overturn some widely held beliefs on fiscal policy effects. The main finding is that expansionary fiscal policy has contractionary effects on output and inflation. Ricardian effects may dominate when fiscal expansions are expected to be adjusted by future tax rises or spending cuts. The evidence supports RBC models with distortionary taxation. We can discard some alternative interpretations that are based on monetary policy reactions or supply-side effects.
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The annual elimination of large numbers of Argentine ant queens near the advance front of an invasion could be a useful tool for weakening the species’ dispersion and, therefore, limiting its establishment in non-invaded areas. However, before carrying out trials to test the effectiveness of this method it would be essential to have sufficient knowledge of the effect of seasonal dynamics acting on the queens’ densities of the species in order to determine the most favourable period of the year to act. We analyzed the seasonal densities and nest dynamics of Argentine ant queens in an invaded Mediterranean natural ecosystem. We observed that the queens’ density varied depending on the season of the year and that this variation was mainly due to the seasonal dynamics of nest aggregations in winter and ant dispersions in summer. The greatest densities per litre of nest soil were observed in winter (December to March, approximately) and the lowest densities were observed in summer ( June to July). This information is essential for improving current knowledge of the Argentine ant’s biology and developing control methods based on the elimination of queens in invaded natural areas
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Objectives: The objectives of this study is to review the set of criteria of the Institute of Medicine (IOM) for priority-setting in research with addition of new criteria if necessary, and to develop and evaluate the reliability and validity of the final priority score. Methods: Based on the evaluation of 199 research topics, forty-five experts identified additional criteria for priority-setting, rated their relevance, and ranked and weighted them in a three-round modified Delphi technique. A final priority score was developed and evaluated. Internal consistency, test–retest and inter-rater reliability were assessed. Correlation with experts’ overall qualitative topic ratings were assessed as an approximation to validity. Results: All seven original IOM criteria were considered relevant and two new criteria were added (“potential for translation into practice”, and “need for knowledge”). Final ranks and relative weights differed from those of the original IOM criteria: “research impact on health outcomes” was considered the most important criterion (4.23), as opposed to “burden of disease” (3.92). Cronbach’s alpha (0.75) and test–retest stability (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.66) for the final set of criteria were acceptable. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for overall assessment of priority was 0.66. Conclusions: A reliable instrument for prioritizing topics in clinical and health services research has been developed. Further evaluation of its validity and impact on selecting research topics is required
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Volatiles produced by plantlets of Alpinia zerumbet were obtained by means of simultaneous distillation-extraction (SDE). The effects of indole-3-acetic acid, kinetin, thidiazuron and 6-benzylaminopurine on leaf and root volatile composition obtained by tissue cultures were investigated. A higher content of b-pinene and a lower content of sabinene were observed in leaf volatile of plantlets cultured in control, IAA and IAA+ TDZ media, as compared with those of donor plants. In vitro conditions were favorable to increase caryophyllene content. Volatile compounds from the root were characterized mainly by camphene, fenchyl-acetate and bornyl acetate; which constitute about 60% of total volatile.
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Gray mold of roses (Rosa hibrida) caused by Botrytis cinerea requires many management strategies for its control. The effect of pulsing rose cv. Kiss with solutions of citric acid, salicylic acid, sucrose, calcium sulfate, and silver thiosulfate (STS) on disease severity and vase life of the flowers was evaluated. The solutions were applied to cut stems at different stages of harvest, the variation in the opening stage of harvest did not affect the results. Pulsing with STS reduced the values of area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) and of severity of disease by 15% and 55%, respectively, and increased the vase life of the flowers by 20%. Calcium sulfate consistently reduced AUDPC by 66% and maximum severity by 88%, and increased vase life of the flowers by 37%. Therefore, pulsing rose buds with solutions of STS and calcium sulfate is potentially useful in reducing losses due to gray mold after harvest and in extending the vase life.