935 resultados para and biological systems with sources of variability
Resumo:
There is increasing concern that the intensification of dairy production reduces the concentrations of nutritionally desirable compounds in milk. This study therefore compared important quality parameters (protein and fatty acid profiles; α-tocopherol and carotenoid concentrations) in milk from four dairy systems with contrasting production intensities (in terms of feeding regimens and milking systems). The concentrations of several nutritionally desirable compounds (β-lactoglobulin, omega-3 fatty acids, omega-3/omega-6 ratio, conjugated linoleic acid c9t11, and/or carotenoids) decreased with increasing feeding intensity (organic outdoor ≥ conventional outdoor ≥ conventional indoors). Milking system intensification (use of robotic milking parlors) had a more limited effect on milk composition, but increased mastitis incidence. Multivariate analyses indicated that differences in milk quality were mainly linked to contrasting feeding regimens and that milking system and breed choice also contributed to differences in milk composition between production systems.
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Clustering methods are increasingly being applied to residential smart meter data, providing a number of important opportunities for distribution network operators (DNOs) to manage and plan the low voltage networks. Clustering has a number of potential advantages for DNOs including, identifying suitable candidates for demand response and improving energy profile modelling. However, due to the high stochasticity and irregularity of household level demand, detailed analytics are required to define appropriate attributes to cluster. In this paper we present in-depth analysis of customer smart meter data to better understand peak demand and major sources of variability in their behaviour. We find four key time periods in which the data should be analysed and use this to form relevant attributes for our clustering. We present a finite mixture model based clustering where we discover 10 distinct behaviour groups describing customers based on their demand and their variability. Finally, using an existing bootstrapping technique we show that the clustering is reliable. To the authors knowledge this is the first time in the power systems literature that the sample robustness of the clustering has been tested.
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Recent temperature extremes have highlighted the importance of assessing projected changes in the variability of temperature as well as the mean. A large fraction of present day temperature variance is associated with thermal advection, as anomalous winds blow across the land-sea temperature contrast for instance. Models project robust heterogeneity in the 21st century warming pattern under greenhouse gas forcing, resulting in land-sea temperature contrasts increasing in summer and decreasing in winter, and the pole-to-equator temperature gradient weakening in winter. In this study, future monthly variability changes in the 17 member ensemble ESSENCE are assessed. In winter, variability in midlatitudes decreases while in very high latitudes and the tropics it increases. In summer, variability increases over most land areas and in the tropics, with decreasing variability in high latitude oceans. Multiple regression analysis is used to determine the contributions to variability changes from changing temperature gradients and circulation patterns. Thermal advection is found to be of particular importance in the northern hemisphere winter midlatitudes, where the change in mean state temperature gradients alone could account for over half the projected changes. Changes in thermal advection are also found to be important in summer in Europe and coastal areas, although less so than in winter. Comparison with CMIP5 data shows that the midlatitude changes in variability are robust across large regions, particularly high northern latitudes in winter and mid northern latitudes in summer.
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A theoretically expected consequence of the intensification of the hydrological cycle under global warming is that on average, wet regions get wetter and dry regions get drier (WWDD). Recent studies, however, have found significant discrepancies between the expected pattern of change and observed changes over land. We assess the WWDD theory in four climate models. We find that the reported discrepancy can be traced to two main issues: (1) unforced internal climate variability strongly affects local wetness and dryness trends and can obscure underlying agreement with WWDD, and (2) dry land regions are not constrained to become drier by enhanced moisture divergence since evaporation cannot exceed precipitation over multiannual time scales. Over land, where the available water does not limit evaporation, a “wet gets wetter” signal predominates. On seasonal time scales, where evaporation can exceed precipitation, trends in wet season becoming wetter and dry season becoming drier are also found.
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Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0–300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993–2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997–2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997–2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0–700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization ‘shock’ over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean (±1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady heat uptake of approximately 0.9 ± 0.8 W m−2 (expressed relative to Earth’s surface area) between 1995 and 2002, which reduces to about 0.2 ± 0.6 W m−2 between 2004 and 2006, in qualitative agreement with recent analysis of Earth’s energy imbalance. There is a marked reduction in the ensemble spread of OHC trends below 300 m as the Argo profiling float observations become available in the early 2000s. In general, we suggest that ORAs should be treated with caution when employed to understand past ocean warming trends—especially when considering the deeper ocean where there is little in the way of observational constraints. The current work emphasizes the need to better observe the deep ocean, both for providing observational constraints for future ocean state estimation efforts and also to develop improved models and data assimilation methods.
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This paper assesses the impact of the location and configuration of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) on Low-Voltage (LV) feeders. BESS are now being deployed on LV networks by Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) as an alternative to conventional reinforcement (e.g. upgrading cables and transformers) in response to increased electricity demand from new technologies such as electric vehicles. By storing energy during periods of low demand and then releasing that energy at times of high demand, the peak demand of a given LV substation on the grid can be reduced therefore mitigating or at least delaying the need for replacement and upgrade. However, existing research into this application of BESS tends to evaluate the aggregated impact of such systems at the substation level and does not systematically consider the impact of the location and configuration of BESS on the voltage profiles, losses and utilisation within a given feeder. In this paper, four configurations of BESS are considered: single-phase, unlinked three-phase, linked three-phase without storage for phase-balancing only, and linked three-phase with storage. These four configurations are then assessed based on models of two real LV networks. In each case, the impact of the BESS is systematically evaluated at every node in the LV network using Matlab linked with OpenDSS. The location and configuration of a BESS is shown to be critical when seeking the best overall network impact or when considering specific impacts on voltage, losses, or utilisation separately. Furthermore, the paper also demonstrates that phase-balancing without energy storage can provide much of the gains on unbalanced networks compared to systems with energy storage.
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Intense extra-tropical cyclones are often associated with strong winds, heavy precipitation and socio-economic impacts. Over southwestern Europe, such storms occur less often, but still cause high economic losses. We characterise the largescale atmospheric conditions and cyclone tracks during the top-100 potential losses over Iberia associated with wind events. Based on 65 years of reanalysis data,events are classified into four groups: (i) cyclone tracks crossing over Iberia on the event day (“Iberia”), (ii) cyclones crossing further north, typically southwest of the British Isles (“North”), (iii) cyclones crossing southwest to northeast near the northwest tip of Iberia (“West”), and (iv) so called “Hybrids”, characterised by a strong pressure gradient over Iberia due to the juxtaposition of low and high pressure centres. Generally, “Iberia” events are the most frequent (31% to 45% for top-100 vs.top-20), while “West” events are rare (10% to 12%). 70% of the events were primarily associated with a cyclone. Multi-decadal variability in the number of events is identified. While the peak in recent years is quite prominent, other comparably stormy periods occurred in the 1960s and 1980s. This study documents that damaging wind storms over Iberia are not rare events, and their frequency of occurrence undergoes strong multi-decadal variability.
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To develop targeted methods for treating bacterial infections, the feasibility of using glycoside derivatives of the antibacterial compound L-R-aminoethylphosphonic acid (L-AEP) has been investigated. These derivatives are hypothesized to be taken up by bacterial cells via carbohydrate uptake mechanisms, and then hydrolysed in situ by bacterial borne glycosidase enzymes, to selectively afford L-AEP. Therefore the synthesis and analysis of ten glycoside derivatives of L-AEP, for selective targeting of specific bacteria, is reported. The ability of these derivatives to inhibit the growth of a panel of Gram-negative bacteria in two different media is discussed. β-Glycosides (12a) and (12b) that contained L-AEP linked to glucose or galactose via a carbamate linkage inhibited growth of a range of organisms with the best MICs being <0.75 mg/ml; for most species the inhibition was closely related to the hydrolysis of the equivalent chromogenic glycosides. This suggests that for (12a) and (12b), release of L-AEP was indeed dependent upon the presence of the respective glycosidase enzyme.
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Emission of fine particles by mobile sources has been a matter of great concern due to its potential risk both to human health and the environment. Although there is no evidence that one sole component may be responsible for the adverse health outcomes, it is postulated that the metal particle content is one of the most important factors, mainly in relation to oxidative stress. Data concerning the amount and type of metal particles emitted by automotive vehicles using Brazilian fuels are limited. The aim of this study was to identify inhalable particles (PM10) and their trace metal content in two light-duty vehicles where one was fueled with ethanol while the other was fueled with gasoline mixed with 22% of anhydrous ethanol (gasohol); these engines were tested on a chassis dynamometer. The elementary composition of the samples was evaluated by the particle-induced x-ray emission technique. The experiment showed that total emission factors ranged from 2.5 to 11.8 mg/km in the gasohol vehicle, and from 1.2 to 3 mg/km in the ethanol vehicle. The majority of particles emitted were in the fine fraction (PM2.5), in which Al, Si, Ca, and Fe corresponded to 80% of the total weight. PM10 emissions from the ethanol vehicle were about threefold lower than those of gasohol. The elevated amount of fine particulate matter is an aggravating factor, considering that these particles, and consequently associated metals, readily penetrate deeply into the respiratory tract, producing damage to lungs and other tissues.
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We analyse the global structure of the phase space of the planar planetary 2/1 mean-motion resonance in cases where the outer planet is more massive than its inner companion. Inside the resonant domain, we show the existence of two families of periodic orbits, one associated to the librational motion of resonant angle (sigma-family) and the other related to the circulatory motion of the difference in longitudes of pericentre (Delta pi-family). The well-known apsidal corotation resonances (ACR) appear as intersections between both families. A complex web of secondary resonances is also detected for low eccentricities, whose strengths and positions are dependent on the individual masses and spatial scale of the system. The construction of dynamical maps for various values of the total angular momentum shows the evolution of the families of stable motion with the eccentricities, identifying possible configurations suitable for exoplanetary systems. For low-moderate eccentricities, several different stable modes exist outside the ACR. For larger eccentricities, however, all stable solutions are associated to oscillations around the stationary solutions. Finally, we present a possible link between these stable families and the process of resonance capture, identifying the most probable routes from the secular region to the resonant domain, and discussing how the final resonant configuration may be affected by the extension of the chaotic layer around the resonance region.
Resumo:
This paper presents the second part in our study of the global structure of the planar phase space of the planetary three-body problem, when both planets lie in the vicinity of a 2/1 mean-motion resonance. While Paper I was devoted to cases where the outer planet is the more massive body, the present work is devoted to the cases where the more massive body is the inner planet. As before, outside the well-known Apsidal Corotation Resonances (ACR), the phase space shows a complex picture marked by the presence of several distinct regimes of resonant and non-resonant motion, crossed by families of periodic orbits and separated by chaotic zones. When the chosen values of the integrals of motion lead to symmetric ACR, the global dynamics are generally similar to the structure presented in Paper I. However, for asymmetric ACR the resonant phase space is strikingly different and shows a galore of distinct dynamical states. This structure is shown with the help of dynamical maps constructed on two different representative planes, one centred on the unstable symmetric ACR and the other on the stable asymmetric equilibrium solution. Although the study described in the work may be applied to any mass ratio, we present a detailed analysis for mass values similar to the Jupiter-Saturn case. Results give a global view of the different dynamical states available to resonant planets with these characteristics. Some of these dynamical paths could have marked the evolution of the giant planets of our Solar system, assuming they suffered a temporary capture in the 2/1 resonance during the latest stages of the formation of our Solar system.
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Duplication at the Xq28 band including the MECP2 gene is one of the most common genomic rearrangements identified in neurodevelopmentally delayed males. Such duplications are non-recurrent and can be generated by a non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) mechanism. We investigated the potential mechanisms for MECP2 duplication and examined whether genomic architectural features may play a role in their origin using a custom designed 4-Mb tiling-path oligonucleotide array CGH assay. Each of the 30 patients analyzed showed a unique duplication varying in size from similar to 250 kb to similar to 2.6 Mb. Interestingly, in 77% of these non-recurrent duplications, the distal breakpoints grouped within a 215 kb genomic interval, located 47 kb telomeric to the MECP2 gene. The genomic architecture of this region contains both direct and inverted low-copy repeat (LCR) sequences; this same region undergoes polymorphic structural variation in the general population. Array CGH revealed complex rearrangements in eight patients; in six patients the duplication contained an embedded triplicated segment, and in the other two, stretches of non-duplicated sequences occurred within the duplicated region. Breakpoint junction sequencing was achieved in four duplications and identified an inversion in one patient, demonstrating further complexity. We propose that the presence of LCRs in the vicinity of the MECP2 gene may generate an unstable DNA structure that can induce DNA strand lesions, such as a collapsed fork, and facilitate a Fork Stalling and Template Switching event producing the complex rearrangements involving MECP2.
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The genetic diversity and phylogeographical patterns of Trypanosoma species that infect Brazilian bats were evaluated by examining 1043 bats from 63 species of seven families captured in Amazonia, the Pantanal, Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biomes of Brazil. The prevalence of trypanosonne-infected bats, as estimated by haemoculture, was 12.9%, resulting in 77 Cultures of isolates, most morphologically identified as Trypanosoma cf. cruzi, classified by barcoding using partial sequences from ssrRNA gene into the subgenus Schizotrypanum and identified as T. cruzi (15), T cruzi marinkellei (37) or T. cf. dionisii (25). Phylogenetic analyses using nuclear ssrRNA, glycosomal glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase (gGAPDH) and mitochondrial cytochrome b (Cyt b) gene sequences generated three clades, which clustered together forming the subgenus Schizotrypanum. In addition to vector association, bat trypanosomes were related by the evolutionary history, ecology and phylogeography of the bats. Tryponosoma cf. dionisii trypanosomes (32.4%) infected 12 species from four bat families captured in all biomes, from North to South Brazil, and clustered with T. dionisii from Europe despite being separated by some genetic distance. Trypanosoma cruzi marinkellei (49.3%) was restricted to phyllostomid bats from Amazonia to the Pantanal (North to Central). Trypanosoma cruzi (18.2%) was found mainly in vespertilionid and phyllostomid bats from the Pantanal/Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest (Central to Southeast), with a few isolates from Amazonia. (C) 2009 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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[1] Iron is hypothesized to be an important micronutrient for ocean biota, thus modulating carbon dioxide uptake by the ocean biological pump. Studies have assumed that atmospheric deposition of iron to the open ocean is predominantly from mineral aerosols. For the first time we model the source, transport, and deposition of iron from combustion sources. Iron is produced in small quantities during fossil fuel burning, incinerator use, and biomass burning. The sources of combustion iron are concentrated in the industrialized regions and biomass burning regions, largely in the tropics. Model results suggest that combustion iron can represent up to 50% of the total iron deposited, but over open ocean regions it is usually less than 5% of the total iron, with the highest values (< 30%) close to the East Asian continent in the North Pacific. For ocean biogeochemistry the bioavailability of the iron is important, and this is often estimated by the fraction which is soluble ( Fe(II)). Previous studies have argued that atmospheric processing of the relatively insoluble Fe(III) occurs to make it more soluble ( Fe( II)). Modeled estimates of soluble iron amounts based solely on atmospheric processing as simulated here cannot match the variability in daily averaged in situ concentration measurements in Korea, which is located close to both combustion and dust sources. The best match to the observations is that there are substantial direct emissions of soluble iron from combustion processes. If we assume observed soluble Fe/black carbon ratios in Korea are representative of the whole globe, we obtain the result that deposition of soluble iron from combustion contributes 20-100% of the soluble iron deposition over many ocean regions. This implies that more work should be done refining the emissions and deposition of combustion sources of soluble iron globally.
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We present the first results of a study investigating the processes that control concentrations and sources of Pb and particulate matter in the atmosphere of Sao Paulo City Brazil Aerosols were collected with high temporal resolution (3 hours) during a four-day period in July 2005 The highest Pb concentrations measured coincided with large fireworks during celebration events and associated to high traffic occurrence Our high-resolution data highlights the impact that a singular transient event can have on air quality even in a megacity Under meteorological conditions non-conducive to pollutant dispersion Pb and particulate matter concentrations accumulated during the night leading to the highest concentrations in aerosols collected early in the morning of the following day The stable isotopes of Pb suggest that emissions from traffic remain an Important source of Pb in Sao Paulo City due to the large traffic fleet despite low Pb concentrations in fuels (C) 2010 Elsevier BV All rights reserved