The role of regret minimisation in lifestyle choices affecting the risk of coronary heart disease

This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimisation (RRM) to the field of health economics. The RRM is a regret-based model that explores a driver of choice different from the traditional utility-based Random Utility Maximisation (RUM). The RRM approach is based on the idea that, when choosing, individuals aim to minimise their regret–regret being defined as what one experiences when a non-chosen alternative in a choice set performs better than a chosen one in relation to one or more attributes. Analysing data from a discrete choice experiment on diet, physical activity and risk of a fatal heart attack in the next ten years administered to a sample of the Northern Ireland population, we find that the combined use of RUM and RRM models offer additional information, providing useful behavioural insights for better informed policy appraisal.

Application of a mechanobiological simulation technique to stents used clinically

Many cardiovascular diseases are characterised by the restriction of blood flow through arteries. Stents can be expanded within arteries to remove such restrictions; however, tissue in-growth into the stent can lead to restenosis. In order to predict the long-term efficacy of stenting, a mechanobiological model of the arterial tissue reaction to stress is required. In this study, a computational model of arterial tissue response to stenting is applied to three clinically relevant stent designs. We ask the question whether such a mechanobiological model can differentiate between stents used clinically, and we compare these predictions to a purely mechanical analysis. In doing so, we are testing the hypothesis that a mechanobiological model of arterial tissue response to injury could predict the long-term outcomes of stent design. Finite element analysis of the expansion of three different stent types was performed in an idealised, 3D artery. Injury was calculated in the arterial tissue using a remaining-life damage mechanics approach. The inflammatory response to this initial injury was modelled using equations governing variables which represented tissue-degrading species and growth factors. Three levels of inflammation response were modelled to account for inter-patient variability. A lattice-based model of smooth muscle cell behaviour was implemented, treating cells as discrete agents governed by local rules. The simulations predicted differences between stent designs similar to those found in vivo. It showed that the volume of neointima produced could be quantified, providing a quantitative comparison of stents. In contrast, the differences between stents based on stress alone were highly dependent on the choice of comparison criteria. These results show that the choice of stress criteria for stent comparisons is critical. This study shows that mechanobiological modelling may provide a valuable tool in stent design, allowing predictions of their long-term efficacy. The level of inflammation was shown to affect the sensitivity of the model to stent design. If this finding was verified in patients, this could suggest that high-inflammation patients may require alternative treatments to stenting.

Emerging asymmetric interactions between forage and predator fisheries impose management trade-offs

A size and trait-based marine community model was used to investigate interactions, with potential implications for yields, when a fishery targeting forage fish species (whose main adult diet is zooplankton) co-occurs with a fishery targeting larger-sized predator species. Predicted effects on the size structure of the fish community, growth and recruitment of fishes, and yield from the fisheries were used to identify management trade-offs among the different fisheries. Results showed that moderate fishing on forage fishes imposed only small effects on predator fisheries, whereas predator fisheries could enhance yield from forage fisheries under some circumstances.

Discriminating Taxonomic Categories and Domains in Mental Simulations of Concepts of Varying Concreteness

Most studies of conceptual knowledge in the brain focus on a narrow range of concrete conceptual categories, rely on the researchers' intuitions about which object belongs to these categories, and assume a broadly taxonomic organization of knowledge. In this fMRI study, we focus on concepts with a variety of concreteness levels; we use a state of the art lexical resource (WordNet 3.1) as the source for a relatively large number of category distinctions and compare a taxonomic style of organization with a domain-based model (associating concepts with scenarios). Participants mentally simulated situations associated with concepts when cued by text stimuli. Using multivariate pattern analysis, we find evidence that all Taxonomic categories and Domains can be distinguished from fMRI data and also observe a clear concreteness effect: Tools and Locations can be reliably predicted for unseen participants, but less concrete categories (e.g., Attributes, Communications, Events, Social Roles) can only be reliably discriminated within participants. A second concreteness effect relates to the interaction of Domain and Taxonomic category membership: Domain (e.g., relation to Law vs. Music) can be better predicted for less concrete categories. We repeated the analysis within anatomical regions, observing discrimination between all/most categories in the left middle occipital and temporal gyri, and more specialized discrimination for concrete categories Tool and Location in the left precentral and fusiform gyri, respectively. Highly concrete/abstract Taxonomic categories and Domain were segregated in frontal regions. We conclude that both Taxonomic and Domain class distinctions are relevant for interpreting neural structuring of concrete and abstract concepts.

AgentSpeak+: AgentSpeak with Probabilistic Planning

AgentSpeak is a logic-based programming language, based on the Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) paradigm, suitable for building complex agent-based systems. To limit the computational complexity, agents in AgentSpeak rely on a plan library to reduce the planning problem to the much simpler problem of plan selection. However, such a plan library is often inadequate when an agent is situated in an uncertain environment. In this paper, we propose the AgentSpeak+ framework, which extends AgentSpeak with a mechanism for probabilistic planning. The beliefs of an AgentSpeak+ agent are represented using epistemic states to allow an agent to reason about its uncertain observations and the uncertain effects of its actions. Each epistemic state consists of a POMDP, used to encode the agent’s knowledge of the environment, and its associated probability distribution (or belief state). In addition, the POMDP is used to select the optimal actions for achieving a given goal, even when facing uncertainty.

A Syntactic Approach to Revising Epistemic States with Uncertain Inputs

Revising its beliefs when receiving new information is an important ability of any intelligent system. However, in realistic settings the new input is not always certain. A compelling way of dealing with uncertain input in an agent-based setting is to treat it as unreliable input, which may strengthen or weaken the beliefs of the agent. Recent work focused on the postulates associated with this form of belief change and on finding semantical operators that satisfy these postulates. In this paper we propose a new syntactic approach for this form of belief change and show that it agrees with the semantical definition. This makes it feasible to develop complex agent systems capable of efficiently dealing with unreliable input in a semantically meaningful way. Additionally, we show that imposing restrictions on the input and the beliefs that are entailed allows us to devise a tractable approach suitable for resource-bounded agents or agents where reactiveness is of paramount importance.

Emotional insecurity in the family and community and youth delinquency in Northern Ireland: A person-oriented analysis across five-waves

Background: Over one billion children are exposed worldwide to political violence and armed conflict. Currently, conclusions about bases for adjustment problems are qualified by limited longitudinal research from a process-oriented, social-ecological perspective. In this study, we examined a theoretically-based model for the impact of multiple levels of the social ecology (family, community) on adolescent delinquency. Specifically, this study explored the impact of children’s emotional insecurity about both the family and community on youth delinquency in Northern Ireland. Methods: In the context of a five-wave longitudinal research design, participants included 999 mother-child dyads in Belfast (482 boys, 517 girls), drawn from socially-deprived, ethnically-homogenous areas that had experienced political violence. Youth ranged in age from 10 to 20 and were 12.18 (SD = 1.82) years old on average at Time 1. Findings: The longitudinal analyses were conducted in hierarchical linear modeling (HLM), allowing for the modeling of inter-individual differences in intra-individual change. Intra-individual trajectories of emotional insecurity about the family related to children’s delinquency. Greater insecurity about the community worsened the impact of family conflict on youth’s insecurity about the family, consistent with the notion that youth’s insecurity about the community sensitizes them to exposure to family conflict in the home. Conclusions: The results suggest that ameliorating children’s insecurity about family and community in contexts of political violence is an important goal toward improving adolescents’ well-being, including reduced risk for delinquency.

Probabilistic Planning in AgentSpeak using the POMDP framework.

AgentSpeak is a logic-based programming language, based on the Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) paradigm, suitable for building complex agent-based systems. To limit the computational complexity, agents in AgentSpeak rely on a plan library to reduce the planning problem to the much simpler problem of plan selection. However, such a plan library is often inadequate when an agent is situated in an uncertain environment. In this paper, we propose the AgentSpeak+ framework, which extends AgentSpeak with a mechanism for probabilistic planning. The beliefs of an AgentSpeak+ agent are represented using epistemic states to allow an agent to reason about its uncertain observations and the uncertain effects of its actions. Each epistemic state consists of a POMDP, used to encode the agent’s knowledge of the environment, and its associated probability distribution (or belief state). In addition, the POMDP is used to select the optimal actions for achieving a given goal, even when facing uncertainty.

Additionality of Incubator Support on Networks of University Spin-Out Firms

The formation rate of university spin-out firms has increased markedly over the past decade. While this is seen as an important channel for the commercialisation of academic research, concerns have centred around high failure rates and no-to-low growth among those which survive compared to other new technology based firms. Universities have responded to this by investing in incubators to assist spin-outs to overcome their liability of newness. Yet how effective are incubators in supporting these firms? Here we examine this in terms of the structural networks that spin-out firms form, the role of the incubator in this and the effect of this on the spin-out process.

An aggregated fridge-freezer peak shaving and valley filling control strategy for enhanced grid operations

The need for fast response demand side participation (DSP) has never been greater due to increased wind power penetration. White domestic goods suppliers are currently developing a `smart' chip for a range of domestic appliances (e.g. refrigeration units, tumble dryers and storage heaters) to support the home as a DSP unit in future power systems. This paper presents an aggregated population-based model of a single compressor fridge-freezer. Two scenarios (i.e. energy efficiency class and size) for valley filling and peak shaving are examined to quantify and value DSP savings in 2020. The analysis shows potential peak reductions of 40 MW to 55 MW are achievable in the Single wholesale Electricity Market of Ireland (i.e. the test system), and valley demand increases of up to 30 MW. The study also shows the importance of the control strategy start time and the staggering of the devices to obtain the desired filling or shaving effect.

Adapting to time: duration channels do not mediate human time perception

Accurately encoding the duration and temporal order of events is essential for survival and important to everyday activities, from holding conversations to driving in fast flowing traffic. Although there is a growing body of evidence that the timing of brief events (< 1s) is encoded by modality-specific mechanisms, it is not clear how such mechanisms register event duration. One approach gaining traction is a channel-based model; this envisages narrowly-tuned, overlapping timing mechanisms that respond preferentially to different durations. The channel-based model predicts that adapting to a given event duration will result in overestimating and underestimating the duration of longer and shorter events, respectively. We tested the model by having observers judge the duration of a brief (600ms) visual test stimulus following adaptation to longer (860ms) and shorter (340ms) stimulus durations. The channel-based model predicts perceived duration compression of the test stimulus in the former condition and perceived duration expansion in the latter condition. Duration compression occurred in both conditions, suggesting that the channel-based model does not adequately account for perceived duration of visual events.

A compendium of modelling techniques

This Integration Insight provides a brief overview of the most popular modelling techniques used to analyse complex real-world problems, as well as some less popular but highly relevant techniques. The modelling methods are divided into three categories, with each encompassing a number of methods, as follows: 1) Qualitative Aggregate Models (Soft Systems Methodology, Concept Maps and Mind Mapping, Scenario Planning, Causal (Loop) Diagrams), 2) Quantitative Aggregate Models (Function fitting and Regression, Bayesian Nets, System of differential equations / Dynamical systems, System Dynamics, Evolutionary Algorithms) and 3) Individual Oriented Models (Cellular Automata, Microsimulation, Agent Based Models, Discrete Event Simulation, Social Network
Analysis). Each technique is broadly described with example uses, key attributes and reference material.

Mercury (II) removal from aqueous solutions by microporous materials

O Mercúrio é um dos metais pesados mais tóxicos existentes no meio ambiente, é persistente e caracteriza-se por bioamplificar e bioacumular ao longo da cadeia trófica. A poluição com mercúrio é um problema à escala global devido à combinação de emissões naturais e emissões antropogénicas, o que obriga a políticas ambientais mais restritivas sobre a descarga de metais pesados. Consequentemente o desenvolvimento de novos e eficientes materiais e de novas tecnologias para remover mercúrio de efluentes é necessário e urgente. Neste contexto, alguns materiais microporosos provenientes de duas famílias, titanossilicatos e zirconossilicatos, foram investigados com o objectivo de avaliar a sua capacidade para remover iões Hg2+ de soluções aquosas. De um modo geral, quase todos os materiais estudados apresentaram elevadas percentagens de remoção, confirmando que são bons permutadores iónicos e que têm capacidade para serem utilizados como agentes descontaminantes. O titanossilicato ETS-4 foi o material mais estudado devido à sua elevada eficiência de remoção (>98%), aliada à pequena quantidade de massa necessária para atingir essa elevada percentagem de remoção. Com apenas 4 mg⋅dm-3 de ETS-4 foi possível tratar uma solução com uma concentração igual ao valor máximo admissível para descargas de efluentes em cursos de água (50 μg⋅dm-3) e obter água com qualidade para consumo humano (<1.0 μg⋅dm-3), de acordo com a legislação Portuguesa (DL 236/98). Tal como para outros adsorbentes, a capacidade de remoção de Hg2+ do ETS- 4 depende de várias condições experimentais, tais como o tempo de contacto, a massa, a concentração inicial de mercúrio, o pH e a temperatura. Do ponto de vista industrial as condições óptimas para a aplicação do ETS-4 são bastante atractivas, uma vez que não requerem grandes quantidades de material e o tratamento da solução pode ser feito à temperatura ambiente. A aplicação do ETS-4 torna-se ainda mais interessante no caso de efluentes hospitalares, de processos de electro-deposição com níquel, metalúrgica, extracção de minérios, especialmente ouro, e indústrias de fabrico de cloro e soda cáustica, uma vez que estes efluentes apresentam valores de pH semelhantes ao valor de pH óptimo para a aplicação do ETS-4. A cinética do processo de troca iónica é bem descrita pelo modelo Nernst-Planck, enquanto que os dados de equilíbrio são bem ajustados pelas isotérmicas de Langmuir e de Freundlich. Os parâmetros termodinâmicos, ΔG° and ΔH° indicam que a remoção de Hg2+ pelo ETS-4 é um processo espontâneo e exotérmico. A elevada eficiência do ETS-4 é confirmada pelos valores da capacidade de remoção de outros materiais para os iões Hg2+, descritos na literatura. A utilização de coluna de ETS-4 preparada no nosso laboratório, para a remoção em contínuo de Hg2+ confirma que este material apresenta um grande potencial para ser utilizado no tratamento de águas. ABSTRACT: Mercury is one of the most toxic heavy metals, exhibiting a persistent character in the environment and biota as well as bioamplification and bioaccumulation along the food chain. Natural inputs combined with the global anthropogenic sources make mercury pollution a planetary-scale problem, and strict environmental policies on metal discharges have been enforced. The development of efficient new materials and clean-up technologies for removing mercury from effluents is, thus, timely. In this context, in my study, several microporous materials from two families, titanosilicates and zirconosilicates were investigated in order to assess their Hg2+ sorption capacity and removal efficiency, under different operating conditions. In general, almost all microporous materials studied exhibited high removal efficiencies, confirming that they are good ion exchangers and have potential to be used as Hg2+ decontaminant agents. Titanosilicate ETS-4 was the material most studied here, by its highest removal efficiency (>98%) and lowest mass necessary to attain it. Moreover, according with the Portuguese legislation (DL 236/98) it is possible to attain drinking water quality (i.e. [Hg2+]< 1.0 μg⋅dm-3) by treating a solution with a Hg2+ concentration equal to the maximum value admissible for effluents discharges into water bodies (50 μg⋅dm-3), using only 4 mg⋅dm-3 of ETS-4. Even in the presence of major freshwater cations, ETS-4 removal efficiency remains high. Like for other adsorbents, the sorption capacity of ETS-4 for Hg2+ ions is strongly dependent on the operating conditions, such as contact time, mass, initial Hg2+ concentration and solution pH and, to a lesser extent, temperature. The optimum operating conditions found for ETS-4 are very attractive from the industrial point of view because the application of ETS-4 for the treatment of wastewater and/or industrial effluents will not require larges amounts of adsorbent, neither energy supply for temperature adjustments becoming the removal process economically competitive. These conditions become even more interesting in the case of medical institutions liquid, nickel electroplating process, copper smelter, gold ore tailings and chlor-alkali effluents, since no significant pH adjustments to the effluent are necessary. The ion exchange kinetics of Hg2+ uptake is successfully described by the Nernst-Planck based model, while the ion exchange equilibrium is well fitted by both Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms. Moreover, the feasibility of the removal process was confirmed by the thermodynamic parameters (ΔG° and ΔH°) which indicate that the Hg2+ sorption by ETS-4 is spontaneous and exothermic. The higher efficiency of ETS-4 for Hg2+ ions is corroborate by the values reported in literature for the sorption capacity of other adsorbents for Hg2+ ions. The use of an ETS-4 fixed-bed ion exchange column, manufactured in our laboratory, in the continuous removal of Hg2+ ions from solutions confirms that this titanosilicate has potential to be used in industrial water treatment.

Caracterização de novas membranas de titanossilicatos microporosos por ensaios de permeabilidade

O interesse crescente das membranas inorgânicas deve-se à potencial aplicação em novas áreas de investigação e da indústria, e em alternativa a operações mais convencionais. Em particular, as membranas de titanossilicatos oferecem vantagens importantes sobre as de zeólitos, pois podem ser sintetizadas sem agentes estruturantes orgânicos, para evitar a calcinação subsequente usualmente responsável por defeitos irreversíveis, exibem novas possibilidades de substituição isomórfica da matriz, permitindo um ajuste mais fino das propriedades catalíticas e de adsorção, e são capazes de separar misturas com base em diferenças de afinidade e tamanho molecular (efeito de peneiro). Os objectivos principais deste trabalho foram: i) a caracterização dinâmica de membranas do tipo zeolítico sintetizadas no Laboratório Associado CICECO, realizando-se experiências de permeação com gases puros e misturas; ii) o desenvolvimento e validação de novos modelos para a transferência de massa multicomponente através de membranas porosas pela abordagem de Maxwell-Stefan, tendo em conta os mecanismos específicos encontrados, particularmente a contribuição por difusão superficial; e iii) a modelação dos pontos experimentais medidos, bem como dados compilados da literatura. De forma a realizar os ensaios de permeação, desenhou-se, montou-se e testou-se uma instalação experimental. Para gases puros, os objectivos principais foram a medição de permeâncias a temperatura constante, por variação da pressão transmembranar r ( ΔP ), e de permeâncias a temperatura programada, conduzidas a ΔP constante. Seguidamente, calcularam-se as selectividades ideais. Em relação a misturas, a determinação de selectividades reais requer as fracções molares no permeado e no retido. Na globalidade, estudaram-se três suportes diferentes (aço inoxidável e α − alumina) e dezanove membranas de AM-3, ETS-10, ZSM-5 e zeólito 4A, utilizando-se H2, He, N2, CO2, e O2. A primeira avaliação exploratória da qualidade das membranas foi feita permeando azoto à temperatura ambiente. Assim, permeâncias superiores a 10−6 mol/m2s.Pa evidenciavam defeitos grosseiros, levando-nos a efectuar cristalizações adicionais sobre as primeiras camadas. Este procedimento foi implementado com oito membranas. Um trabalho experimental mais detalhado foi conduzido com cinco membranas. Membranas com curvas permeância-temperatura ( Π −T ) decrescentes indicam tipicamente transporte viscoso e de Knudsen, i.e. meso e macrodefeitos. Por exemplo, a membrana nº 3 de AM-3 exibiu este comportamento com H2, He, N2 e CO2 puros. A contribuição de Knudsen foi confirmada pela relação linear encontrada entre as permeâncias e o inverso da raiz quadrada da massa molar. O mecanismo viscoso foi também identificado, pois as permeâncias eram inversamente proporcionais à viscosidade do gás ou, atendendo a equações do tipo de Chapman-Enskog, directamente proporcionais a 2 0.5 k d M (onde k d é o diâmetro cinético e M a massa molar). Um comportamento de permeação distinto observou-se com a membrana nº 5 de AM-3. As permeâncias registadas a temperatura programada eram aproximadamente constantes para o N2, CO2 e O2, enquanto com o H2 cresciam significativamente. Conjuntamente elas evidenciam a ocorrência de macro, meso e microdefeitos intercristalinos. O transporte gasoso activado através dos microporos compensa o impacto diminuidor dos meso e macroporos. Ao contrário do N2, CO2 e O2, o pequeno diâmetro do hidrogénio torna-lhe possível permear através dos microporos intracristalinos, o que lhe adiciona um mecanismo de transferência responsável por esse crescimento. No que respeita à difusão superficial, o sistema CO2/ZSM-5 pode ser tomado como um exemplo paradigmático. Uma vez que este zeólito adsorve o CO2, as permeâncias diminuem com o crescimento de ΔP , em virtude de as concentrações no sólido aumentarem de forma não linear e tenderem para a saturação. Os resultados contrastantes obtidos com azoto realçam ainda mais o mecanismo superficial, pois o N2 não é adsorvido e as permeâncias medidas são constantes. Globalmente, as selectividades ideais calculadas ( α* ) variam de cerca de 1 a 4.2. Este parâmetro foi também utilizado para discriminar as melhores membranas, uma vez que baixos valores de α* denotam o escoamento viscoso não-selectivo típico de macrodefeitos. Por exemplo, o H2/CO2 na membrana nº 3 de AM-3 apresentou α* = 3.6 − 4.2 para 40–120ºC, enquanto que na membrana nº 5 de AM-3 originou α* = 2.6 − 3.1. Estes resultados corroboraram as observações anteriores, segundo as quais a membrana nº 5 era melhor do que a nº 3. Alguns ensaios foram realizados com membranas saturadas com água para aumentar a selectividade: as medições mostraram claramente uma melhoria inicial seguida de uma redução consistente de α* com o aumento da temperatura, devido à remoção das moléculas de água responsáveis pela obstrução de alguns poros. Em relação às selectividades reais de misturas contendo hidrogénio, devem ser realizadas mais experiências e a quantificação do hidrogénio deve ser melhorada. No que concerne à modelação, novos factores termodinâmicos de Maxwell- Stefan foram derivados para as isotérmicas mono e multicomponente de Nitta, Langmuir-Freundlich e Toth, tendo sido testadas com dados de equilíbrio e de permeação da literatura. (É importante realçar que só estão publicadas equações para Langmuir e Dual-Site Langmuir de componentes puros e misturas). O procedimento de validação adoptado foi exigente: i) as isotérmicas multicomponente foram previstas a partir das de gás puro; ii) os parâmetros de difusão dos componentes puros foram ajustados a dados de permeação de cada gás; iii) depois, as difusividades cruzadas de Maxwell- Stefan foram estimadas pela relação de Vignes; finalmente, v) as novas equações foram testadas usando-se estes parâmetros, tendo sido capazes de estimar com sucesso fluxos binários. Paralelamente ao enfoque principal do trabalho, derivou-se um novo modelo para permuta iónica em materiais microporosos baseado nas equações de Maxwell-Stefan. Este foi validado com dados experimentais de remoção de Hg2+ e Cd2+ de soluções aquosas usando ETS-4. A sua capacidade preditiva foi também avaliada, sendo possível concluir que se comporta muito bem. Com efeito, conseguiram-se boas previsões com parâmetros optimizados a partir de conjuntos de dados independentes. Este comportamento pode ser atribuído aos princípios físicos sólidos da teoria de Maxwell-Stefan.

Interacting agents on complex networks and stochastic processes in them

Nas últimas décadas, um grande número de processos têm sido descritos em termos de redes complexas. A teoria de redes complexas vem sendo utilizada com sucesso para descrever, modelar e caracterizar sistemas naturais, artificias e sociais, tais como ecossistemas, interações entre proteínas, a Internet, WWW, até mesmo as relações interpessoais na sociedade. Nesta tese de doutoramento apresentamos alguns modelos de agentes interagentes em redes complexas. Inicialmente, apresentamos uma breve introdução histórica (Capítulo 1), seguida de algumas noções básicas sobre redes complexas (Capítulo 2) e de alguns trabalhos e modelos mais relevantes a esta tese de doutoramento (Capítulo 3). Apresentamos, no Capítulo 4, o estudo de um modelo de dinâmica de opiniões, onde busca-se o consenso entre os agentes em uma população, seguido do estudo da evolução de agentes interagentes em um processo de ramificação espacialmente definido (Capítulo 5). No Capítulo 6 apresentamos um modelo de otimização de fluxos em rede e um estudo do surgimento de redes livres de escala a partir de um processo de otimização . Finalmente, no Capítulo 7, apresentamos nossas conclusões e perspectivas futuras.