Urbanization, population transition, and growth

This paper analyzes a dual economy consisting of urban market areas and less developed rural areas with or without local markets. Urban areas have better opportunities for earnings and education than rural areas. Rural families choose whether to move to urban areas at costs that differ from location to location. As per capita output grows relative to the moving cost, urbanization proceeds, leading to lower fertility, more investments in human and physical capital per child relative to output per worker, and faster economic growth. These impacts are stronger if rural areas have no access to markets.

Total Daily Energy Expenditure and Incidence of Upper Respiratory Tract Infection Symptoms in Young Females

A group of 31 young females, tennis players and non-athletes, aged 16 2 years (range: 14 - 21 years), with a wide range of physical activity levels was used to investigate the relationship between total daily energy expenditure and the incidence of upper respiratory tract infection symptoms. Methods: During a 12 week winter period, habitual daily activity (excluding training) was evaluated using a 3-day physical activity record. Tennis training was quantified using a validated method of estimating energy expenditure during play. Total daily energy expenditure was calculated from the sum of daily training plus mean habitual daily activity energy expenditures. The total group of subjects was divided in quartiles for total daily energy expenditure. A validated symptom checklist was used to assess the incidence and severity of upper respiratory tract infections, on a daily basis. Results: The girls in the highest quartile of total daily energy expenditure (greater than or equal to 17322 kJ/day) and in the lowest quartile (less than or equal to 10 047 kJ/day) had the greatest incidence of URTI symptomatology, although the moderately active girls in quartile three (12290-16410 kJ/day) presented the lowest incidence. Significant differences in number of upper respiratory tract infection episodes, sickness days and symptomatology index were found between quartiles three and one (p < 0.05) and quartiles three and four (p < 0.01). Peak severity of symptoms was significantly lower in quartile three compared with all other quartiles (p < 0.05).

Effects of paternal drinking, conduct disorder and childhood home environment on the development of alcohol use disorders in a Thai population

Aims To identify influences on the development of alcohol use disorders in a Thai population, particularly parental drinking and childhood environment. Design Case-control study. Setting A university hospital, a regional hospital and a community hospital in southern Thailand. Participants Ninety-one alcohol-dependents and 177 hazardous/harmful drinkers were recruited as cases and 144 non-or infrequent drinkers as controls. Measurements Data on parental drinking, family demographic characteristics, family activities, parental disciplinary practice, early religious life and conduct disorder were obtained using a structured interview questionnaire. The main outcome measure was the subject's classification as alcohol-dependent, hazardous/harmful drinker or non-/infrequent drinker. Findings A significant relationship was found between having a drinking father and the occurrence of hazardous/harmful drinking or alcohol dependence in the subjects. Childhood factors (conduct disorder and having been a temple boy, relative probability ratios, RPRs and 95% CI: 6.39, 2.81-14.55 and 2.21, 1.19-4.08, respectively) also significantly predicted alcohol dependence, while perceived poverty and ethnic alienation was reported less frequently by hazardous/harmful drinkers and alcohol-dependents (RPRS and 95% CIs = 0.34, 0.19-0.62 and 0.59, 0.38-0.93, respectively) than the controls. The relative probability ratio for the effect of the father's infrequent drinking on the son's alcohol dependence was 2.92 (95% CI = 1.42-6.02) and for the father's heavy or dependent drinking 2.84 (95% CI=1.31-6.15). Conclusions Being exposed to a light-drinking, father increases the risk of a son's alcohol use disorders exhibited either as hazardous-harmful or dependent drinking. However, exposure to a heavy- or dependent-drinking father is associated more uniquely with an increased risk of his son being alcohol-dependent. The extent to which this is seen in other cultures is worthy of exploration.

Population balance modelling of granulation with a physically based coalescence kernel

It was previously published by the authors that granules can either coalesce through Type I (when granules coalesce by viscous dissipation in the surface liquid layer before their surfaces touch) or Type II (when granules are slowed to a halt during rebound, after their surfaces have made contact) (AIChE J. 46 (3) (2000) 529). Based on this coalescence mechanism, a new coalescence kernel for population balance modelling of granule growth is presented. The kernel is constant such that only collisions satisfying the conditions for one of the two coalescence types are successful. One constant rate is assigned to each type of coalescence and zero is for the case of rebound. As the conditions for Types I and II coalescence are dependent on granule and binder properties, the coalescence kernel is thus physically based. Simulation results of a variety of binder and granule materials show good agreement with experimental data. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sex allocation in the sexually monomorphic fairy martin

Offspring sex ratios were examined at the population and family level in the sexually monomorphic, socially monogamous fairy martin Petrochelidon ariel at five colony sites over a 4-year period (1993 1996). The sex of 465 nestlings from 169 broods % as determined using sex-specific PCR at the CHD locus. In accordance with predicted sex allocation patterns, population sex ratios at hatching and fledging did not differ from parity in an), year and the variance in brood sex ratios did not deviate from the binomial distribution, Further, brood sex ratio did not vary with hatching date during the season, brood number, brood size or colony size, The sex ratio or broods with extra-pair young did not differ from those without, while the sex ratio of broods fathered by males that gained extra-pair fertilizations did not differ from broods fathered by other males. Extra-pair chicks were as likely to be male as female. Neither the total number of feeding visits to the brood nor the relative feeding contribution by the sexes varied significantly with brood sex ratio. Brood sex ratios were also unrelated to paternal size, condition and breeding experience or maternal condition and breeding experience, However, contrary to our prediction, brood sex ratio was negatively correlated with maternal size. Generally, these results were consistent with our expectations that brood sex ratios would not vary with environmental factors or parental characteristics, and would not influence the level of parental provisioning. However, the finding that females with longer tarsi produced an excess of daughters is difficult to reconcile with our current understanding or fairy martin life history and breeding ecology.

The influence of preparedness on rapid stepping in young and older adults

Objective: To investigate the influence of age and preparation level on postural muscle activation and step completion time during a rapid step task. Design: Postural muscle onset times (EMG) and ground reaction forces were recorded from healthy young (n = 20, age 21 +/- 3 years) and older (n = 25, age 71 +/- 5 years) female adults during a choice reaction-time stepping paradigm. Main outcome measures: Onset times of six trunk and hip muscles, reaction time and components of the step (weight shift time, step time and task time) were recorded. Results: Muscle activation was delayed and movement time was lengthened in both young and older adults when poorly prepared for a stepping task. While reduced preparation did not influence older adults to a greater extent than young adults, the slowest step response and completion time was evident in older adults when poorly prepared to move. Conclusions: A late postural response when poorly prepared to move may be a contributing factor to an increased risk of overbalancing in older adults. Future assessment of and intervention to improve postural stability in older adults should be expanded to incorporate tasks performed at various levels of preparation.

Comparison of two population pharmacokinetic programs, NONMEM and P-PHARM, for tacrolimus

Objectives: To compare the population modelling programs NONMEM and P-PHARM during investigation of the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in paediatric liver-transplant recipients. Methods: Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using NONMEM and P-PHARM on retrospective data from 35 paediatric liver-transplant patients receiving tacrolimus therapy. The same data were presented to both programs. Maximum likelihood estimates were sought for apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F). Covariates screened for influence on these parameters were weight, age, gender, post-operative day, days of tacrolimus therapy, transplant type, biliary reconstructive procedure, liver function tests, creatinine clearance, haematocrit, corticosteroid dose, and potential interacting drugs. Results: A satisfactory model was developed in both programs with a single categorical covariate - transplant type - providing stable parameter estimates and small, normally distributed (weighted) residuals. In NONMEM, the continuous covariates - age and liver function tests - improved modelling further. Mean parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 16.3 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.5 1/h and V/F = 565 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F = 8.3 1/h and V/F = 155 1 in P-PHARM. Individual Bayesian parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 17.9 +/- 8.8 1/h, CL/F (cutdown liver) = 11.6 +/- 18.8 1/h and V/F = 712 792 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F (whole liver) = 12.8 +/- 3.5 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.2 +/- 3.4 1/h and V/F = 221 1641 in P-PHARM. Marked interindividual kinetic variability (38-108%) and residual random error (approximately 3 ng/ml) were observed. P-PHARM was more user friendly and readily provided informative graphical presentation of results. NONMEM allowed a wider choice of errors for statistical modelling and coped better with complex covariate data sets. Conclusion: Results from parametric modelling programs can vary due to different algorithms employed to estimate parameters, alternative methods of covariate analysis and variations and limitations in the software itself.

Young children's performance on the balance scale: The influence of relational complexity

Three experiments investigated the effect of complexity on children's understanding of a beam balance. In nonconflict problems, weights or distances varied, while the other was held constant. In conflict items, both weight and distance varied, and items were of three kinds: weight dominant, distance dominant, or balance (in which neither was dominant). In Experiment 1, 2-year-old children succeeded on nonconflict-weight and nonconflict-distance problems. This result was replicated in Experiment 2, but performance on conflict items did not exceed chance. In Experiment 3, 3- and 4-year-olds succeeded on all except conflict balance problems, while 5- and 6-year-olds succeeded on all problem types. The results were interpreted in terms of relational complexity theory. Children aged 2 to 4 years succeeded on problems that entailed binary relations, but 5- and 6-year-olds also succeeded on problems that entailed ternary relations. Ternary relations tasks from other domains-transitivity and class inclusion-accounted for 93% of the age-related variance in balance scale scores. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Fate of N-15-labelled nitrate in a wet summer under different residue management regimes in young hoop pine plantations

A field study was conducted to investigate the fate of N-15-labelled nitrate applied at 20 kg N ha(-1) in a wet summer to microplots installed in areas under different residue management regimes in second-rotation hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii) plantations aged 1-3 years in south-east Queensland, Australia. PVC microplots of 235 mm diameter and 300 mm long were driven into 250 mm soil. There were three replications of each of eight treatments. These were areas just under and between 1-year-old windrows (ca. 2-3 m in width) of harvesting residues spaced 15 m apart, and with and without incorporated foliage residues (20 t DM ha(-1)); the areas just under and between 2- or 3-year-old windrows spaced 10 m apart. Only 7-29% of the added N-15 was recovered from the top 750 mm of the soil profile with the leaching loss estimated to be 70-86% over the 34-day period. The N-15 loss via denitrification was 3.7-6.3% by directly measuring the N-15 gases emitted. The microplots with the incorporated residues at the 1-year-old site had the highest N-15 loss (6.3%) as compared with the other treatments. The N-15 mass balance method together with the use of bromide (Br) tracer applied at 100 kg Br ha(-1) failed to obtain a reliable estimate of the denitrification loss. The microplots at the 1-year-old site had higher N-15 immobilisation rate (7.5-24.7%) compared with those at 2- and 3-year-old sites (2.1-3.6%). Incorporating the residues resulted in an increase in N-15 immobilisation rate (24.5-24.7%) compared with the control without the incorporated residues (8.4-14.3%). These findings suggest that climatic conditions played important roles in controlling the N-15 transformations in the wet summer season and that the residue management regimes could also significantly influence the N-15 transformations. Most of the N-15 loss occurred through leaching, but a considerable amount of the N-15 was lost through denitrification. Bromide proved to be an unsuitable tracer for monitoring the N-15 leaching and movement under the wet summer conditions. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.