'John James' and 'The White Stones' p. 71: Music, rhyme, and home

An essay relating 'The Dragon House' by John James to 'Thoughts on the Esterhazy Court Uniform' by J. H. Prynne

The death of John Stuart Mill

This article surveys the fiercely contested posthumous assessments of John Stuart Mill in the newspaper and periodical press, in the months following his death in May 1873, and elicits the broader intellectual context. Judgements made in the immediate wake of Mill's death influence biographers and historians to this day and provide an illuminating aperture into the politics and shifting ideological forces of the period. The article considers how Mill's failure to control his posthumous reputation demonstrates both the inextricable intertwining of politics and character in the 1870s, and the difficulties his allies faced. In particular, it shows the sharp division between Mill's middle and working class admirers; the use of James Mill's name as a rebuke to his son; the redefinition of Malthusianism in the 1870s; and how publication of Mill's Autobiography damaged his reputation. Finally, the article considers the relative absence of both theological and Darwinian critiques of Mill.

The 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa in ECMWF reanalysis and seasonal forecast products

This study evaluates the use of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) products in monitoring and forecasting drought conditions during the recent 2010–2011 drought in the Horn of Africa (HoA). The region was affected by a precipitation deficit in both the October–December 2010 and March–May 2011 rainy seasons. These anomalies were captured by the ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI), despite its limitations in representing the March–May interannual variability. Soil moisture anomalies of ERAI also identified the onset of the drought condition early in October 2010 with a persistent drought still present in September 2011. This signal was also evident in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) remote sensing data. The precipitation deficit in October–December 2010 was associated with a strong La Niña event. The ECMWF seasonal forecasts for the October–December 2010 season predicted the La Niña event from June 2010 onwards. The forecasts also predicted a below-average October–December rainfall, from July 2010 onwards. The subsequent March–May rainfall anomaly was only captured by the new ECWMF seasonal forecast system in the forecasts starting in March 2011. Our analysis shows that a recent (since 1999) drying in the region during the March–May season is captured by the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system and is consistent with recently published results. The HoA region and its population are highly vulnerable to future droughts, thus global monitoring and forecasting of drought, such as that presented here, will become increasingly important in the future. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society