THE quest for alpha : can artificial neural networks help?

The application of artificial neural networks (ANN) in finance is relatively new area of research. We employed ANNs that used both fundamental and technical inputs to predict future prices of widely held Australian stocks and used these predicted prices for stock portfolio selection over a 10-year period (2001-2011). We found that the ANNs generally do well in predicting the direction of stock price movements. The stock portfolios selected by the ANNs with median accuracy are able to generate positive alpha over the 10-year period. More importantly, we found that a portfolio based on randomly selected network configuration had zero chance of resulting in a significantly negative alpha but a 27% chance of yielding a significantly positive alpha. This is in stark contrast to the findings of the research on mutual fund performance where active fund managers with negative alphas outnumber those with positive alphas.

Understanding the abnormal brain activity in epilepsy as a potential predictor of the onset of an epileptic seizure

The Brain Research Institute (BRI) uses various types of indirect measurements, including EEG and fMRI, to understand and assess brain activity and function. As well as the recovery of generic information about brain function, research also focuses on the utilisation of such data and understanding to study the initiation, dynamics, spread and suppression of epileptic seizures. To assist with the future focussing of this aspect of their research, the BRI asked the MISG 2010 participants to examine how the available EEG and fMRI data and current knowledge about epilepsy should be analysed and interpreted to yield an enhanced understanding about brain activity occurring before, at commencement of, during, and after a seizure. Though the deliberations of the study group were wide ranging in terms of the related matters considered and discussed, considerable progress was made with the following three aspects. (1) The science behind brain activity investigations depends crucially on the quality of the analysis and interpretation of, as well as the recovery of information from, EEG and fMRI measurements. A number of specific methodologies were discussed and formalised, including independent component analysis, principal component analysis, profile monitoring and change point analysis (hidden Markov modelling, time series analysis, discontinuity identification). (2) Even though EEG measurements accurately and very sensitively record the onset of an epileptic event or seizure, they are, from the perspective of understanding the internal initiation and localisation, of limited utility. They only record neuronal activity in the cortical (surface layer) neurons of the brain, which is a direct reflection of the type of electrical activity they have been designed to record. Because fMRI records, through the monitoring of blood flow activity, the location of localised brain activity within the brain, the possibility of combining fMRI measurements with EEG, as a joint inversion activity, was discussed and examined in detail. (3) A major goal for the BRI is to improve understanding about ``when'' (at what time) an epileptic seizure actually commenced before it is identified on an eeg recording, ``where'' the source of this initiation is located in the brain, and ``what'' is the initiator. Because of the general agreement in the literature that, in one way or another, epileptic events and seizures represent abnormal synchronisations of localised and/or global brain activity the modelling of synchronisations was examined in some detail. References C. M. Michel, G. Thut, S. Morand, A. Khateb, A. J. Pegna, R. Grave de Peralta, S. Gonzalez, M. Seeck and T. Landis, Electric source imaging of human brain functions, Brain Res. 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Winning the phishing war : a strategy for Australia

Phishing, a form of on-line identity theft, is a major problem worldwide, accounting for more than $7.5 Billion in losses in the US alone between 2005 and 2008. Australia was the first country to be targeted by Internet bank phishing in 2003 and continues to have a significant problem in this area. The major cyber crime groups responsible for phishing are based in Eastern Europe. They operate with a large degree of freedom due to the inherent difficulties in cross border law enforcement and the current situation in Eastern Europe, particularly in Russia and the Ukraine. They employ highly sophisticated and efficient technical tools to compromise victims and subvert bank authentication systems. However because it is difficult for them to repatriate the fraudulently obtained funds directly they employ Internet money mules in Australia to transfer the money via Western Union or Money gram. It is proposed a strategy, which firstly places more focus by Australian law enforcement upon transactions via Western Union and Money gram to detect this money laundering, would significantly impact the success of the Phishing attack model. This combined with a technical monitoring of Trojan technology and education of potential Internet money mules to avoid being duped would provide a winning strategy for the war on phishing for Australia.

State of Energy Efficiency Education in Australian Technical & Further Education (TAFE) : A Report to the Australian Government Skills for the Carbon Challenge Initiative, The Natural Edge Project (TNEP), Queensland University of Technology

The Australian Government’s Skills for the Carbon Challenge (SCC) initiative aims to accelerate industry and the education sectors response to climate change. As part of the SCC initiative, the Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education (DIICCSRTE) provided funding to investigate the state of energy efficiency education in engineering-related Australian Technical and Further Education (TAFE) Programs. The following document reports on the outcomes of a multi-stage consultation project that engaged with participants from over 80% of TAFE institutions across Australia with the aim of supporting and enhancing future critical skills development in this area. Specifically, this report presents the findings of a national survey, based on a series of TAFE educator focus groups, conducted in May 2013 aimed at understanding the experiences and insights of Australian TAFE educators teaching engineering-related courses. Responses were received from 224 TAFE Educators across 50 of the 61 TAFE institutions in Australia (82% response rate).

Predicting freeway pavement construction cost using a back-propagation neural network : a case study in Henan, China

The objective of this research was to develop a model to estimate future freeway pavement construction costs in Henan Province, China. A comprehensive set of factors contributing to the cost of freeway pavement construction were included in the model formulation. These factors comprehensively reflect the characteristics of region and topography and altitude variation, the cost of labour, material, and equipment, and time-related variables such as index numbers of labour prices, material prices and equipment prices. An Artificial Neural Network model using the Back-Propagation learning algorithm was developed to estimate the cost of freeway pavement construction. A total of 88 valid freeway cases were obtained from freeway construction projects let by the Henan Transportation Department during the period 1994−2007. Data from a random selection of 81 freeway cases were used to train the Neural Network model and the remaining data were used to test the performance of the Neural Network model. The tested model was used to predict freeway pavement construction costs in 2010 based on predictions of input values. In addition, this paper provides a suggested correction for the prediction of the value for the future freeway pavement construction costs. Since the change in future freeway pavement construction cost is affected by many factors, the predictions obtained by the proposed method, and therefore the model, will need to be tested once actual data are obtained.

From impact assessment to user-friendly risk management decision-making

In earlier cultures and societies, hazards and risks to human health were dealt with by methods derived from myth, metaphor and ritual. In modem society however, notions of hazard and risk have been transformed from the level of a folk discourse to that of an expert centred concept (Plough & Krimsky, 1987). With the professionalization of risk and hazard analysis came a preferred framework for decision making based on a range of 'technical' methodologies (Giere, 1991 ). This is especially true for decision processes relating to risk assessment and management, and impact assessment. Such approaches however, often entail narrow technical-based theoretical assumptions about human behaviour and the natural world, and the· methods used. They therefore carry 'in-built' error factors that contribute considerable uncertainty to the results.

Conflicting notions of risk : the chasm of conflict between institutions and the public

The trust and credibility gap between institutional regulators and the public is based on fundamental social and cultural differences related to power and authority. It is also associated with the 'distance' of a bureaucracies from those whom they serve. The nature of public concern about risk may be investigated by considering specific cognitive decision making 'rules' such as 'familiarity' of a hazard or 'voluntariness' of exposure. A more complete appreciation of the 'how' and 'why' of public response to danger from industrial hazards can be gained by appreciating these 'rules' within the broader context of mis-communication between 'elite' regulators and a highly diverse public. If the results of risk assessments are expressed in technical terms alone, it is unlikely that any real communication will occur. Further, if issues related to the 'remote' nature of much institutional decision making are not addressed, closure of the 'gap' may be difficult to bring about.

Beyond BIM: It’s not the end of the road!

Over several decades, academics around the world have investigated the necessary tools, techniques, and conditions which would allow BIM (building information modeling) to become a positive force in the world of construction. As the research results matured, BIM started to become commercially available. Researchers and many in industry soon realized that BIM, as a technological innovation, was, in and of itself, not the end point in the journey. The technical adoption of BIM has to be supported by process and culture change within organizations to make a real impact on a project (for example, see AECbytes Viewpoint #35 by Chuck Eastman, Paul Teicholz, Rafael Sacks and Kathleen Liston). Current academic research aims to understand the steps beyond BIM, which will help chart the future of our industry over the coming decades. This article describes an international research effort in this area, coordinated by the Integrated Design and Delivery Solutions (IDDS) initiative of the CIB (International Council for Research and Innovation in Building and Construction). We hope that it responds to and extends the discussion initiated by Brian Lighthart in AECbytes Viewpoint #56, which asked about who is charting future BIM directions.

A systematic review and meta-analysis : tailoring asthma treatment on eosinophilic markers (exhaled nitric oxide or sputum eosinophils)

Asthma severity and control can be measured both subjectively and objectively. Traditionally asthma treatments have been individualised using symptoms and spirometry/peak flow. Increasingly treatment tailored in accordance with inflammatory markers (sputum eosinophil counts or fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) data) is advocated as an alternative strategy. The objective of this review was to evaluate the efficacy of tailoring asthma interventions based on inflammatory markers (sputum analysis and FeNO) in comparison with clinical symptoms (with or without spirometry/peak flow) for asthma-related outcomes in children and adults. Cochrane Airways Group Specialised Register of Trials, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE and reference lists of articles were searched. The last searches were in February 2009. All randomised controlled comparisons of adjustment of asthma treatment based on sputum analysis or FeNO compared with traditional methods (primarily clinical symptoms and spirometry/peak flow) were selected. Results of searches were reviewed against predetermined criteria for inclusion. Relevant studies were selected, assessed and data extracted independently by at least two people. The trial authors were contacted for further information. Data were analysed as 'intervention received' and sensitivity analyses performed. Six (2 adults and 4 children/adolescent) studies utilising FeNO and three adult studies utilising sputum eosinophils were included. These studies had a degree of clinical heterogeneity including definition of asthma exacerbations, duration of study and variations in cut-off levels for percentage of sputum eosinophils and FeNO to alter management in each study. Adults who had treatment adjusted according to sputum eosinophils had a reduced number of exacerbations compared with the control group (52 vs. 77 patients with >=1 exacerbation in the study period; p=0.0006). There was no significant difference in exacerbations between groups for FeNO compared with controls. The daily dose of inhaled corticosteroids at the end of the study was decreased in adults whose treatment was based on FeNO in comparison with the control group (mean difference -450.03 mug, 95% CI -676.73 to -223.34; p<0.0001). However, children who had treatment adjusted according to FeNO had an increase in their mean daily dose of inhaled corticosteroids (mean difference 140.18 mug, 95% CI 28.94 to 251.42; p=0.014). It was concluded that tailoring of asthma treatment based on sputum eosinophils is effective in decreasing asthma exacerbations. However, tailoring of asthma treatment based on FeNO levels has not been shown to be effective in improving asthma outcomes in children and adults. At present, there is insufficient justification to advocate the routine use of either sputum analysis (due to technical expertise required) or FeNO in everyday clinical practice.

Measuring Online user engagement : the limitations of Web analytics

The ability to identify and assess user engagement with transmedia productions is vital to the success of individual projects and the sustainability of this mode of media production as a whole. It is essential that industry players have access to tools and methodologies that offer the most complete and accurate picture of how audiences/users engage with their productions and which assets generate the most valuable returns of investment. Drawing upon research conducted with Hoodlum Entertainment, a Brisbane-based transmedia producer, this chapter outlines an initial assessment of the way engagement tends to be understood, why standard web analytics tools are ill-suited to measuring it, how a customised tool could offer solutions, and why this question of measuring engagement is so vital to the future of transmedia as a sustainable industry.

Design of a least-cost battery-supercapacitor energy storage system for realizing dispatchable wind power

A statistical approach is used in the design of a battery-supercapacitor energy storage system for a wind farm. The design exploits the technical merits of the two energy storage mediums, in terms of the differences in their specific power and energy densities, and their ability to accommodate different rates of change in the charging/discharging powers. By treating the input wind power as random and using a proposed coordinated power flows control strategy for the battery and the supercapacitor, the approach evaluates the energy storage capacities, the corresponding expected life cycle cost/year of the storage mediums, and the expected cost/year of unmet power dispatch. A computational procedure is then developed for the design of a least-cost/year hybrid energy storage system to realize wind power dispatch at a specified confidence level.

Barriers to implementing eHealth : a multi-dimensional perspective

This paper strives to identify barriers that hamper eHealth implementation from different perspectives. The benefits offered by eHealth and the need for eHealth preparedness is first discussed. This is followed by a discussion on the integral components of a robust eHealth infrastructure. Then, the barriers to eHealth such as technical interoperability issues, lack of holistic approach and technology disconnect are explained in detail. Finally, solutions to promote better adoption of eHealth through government policies, standardisation and training are also discussed.

Exploring subscription renewal intention of operational cloud enterprise systems-a socio-technical approach

Despite the fact that customer retention is crucial for providers of cloud enterprise systems, only little attention has been directed towards investigating the antecedents of subscription renewal in an organizational context. This is even more surprising, as cloud services are usually offered as subscription-based pricing models with the (theoretical) possibility of immediate service cancellation, strongly opposing classical long-term IT-Outsourcing contracts or license-based payment plans of on premise enterprise systems. To close this research gap an empirical study was undertaken. Firstly, a conceptual model was drawn from theories of social psychology, organizational system continuance and IS success. The model was subsequently tested using survey responses of senior management within companies which adopted cloud enterprise systems. Gathered data was then analysed using PLS. The results indicate that subscription renewal intention is influenced by both – social-related and technology-specific factors – which are able to explain 50.4% of the variance in the dependent variable. Beneath the cloud enterprise systems specific contributions, the work advances knowledge in the area of organizational system continuance, as well as IS success.

Systematic integration of human factors in the specification of requirements for new railway technologies

Engineering design processes are necessary to attain the requisite standards of integrity for high-assurance safety-related systems. Additionally, human factors design initiatives can provide critical insights that parameterise their development. Unfortunately, the popular perception of human factors as a “forced marriage” between engineering and psychology often provokes views where the ‘human factor’ is perceived as a threat to systems design. Some popular performance-based standards for developing safety-related systems advocate identifying and managing human factors throughout the system lifecycle. However, they also have a tendency to fall short in their guidance on the application of human factors methods and tools, let alone how the outputs generated can be integrated in to various stages of the design process. This case study describes a project that converged engineering with human factors to develop a safety argument for new low-cost railway level crossing technology for system-wide implementation in Australia. The paper enjoins the perspectives of a software engineer and cognitive psychologist and their involvement in the project over two years of collaborative work to develop a safety argument for low-cost level crossing technology. Safety and reliability requirements were informed by applying human factors analytical tools that supported the evaluation and quantification of human reliability where users interfaced with the technology. The project team was confronted with significant challenges in cross-disciplinary engagement, particularly with the complexities of dealing with incongruences in disciplinary language. They were also encouraged to think ‘outside the box’ as to how users of a system interpreted system states and ehaviour. Importantly, some of these states, while considered safe within the boundary of the constituent systems that implemented safety-related functions, could actually lead the users to engage in deviant behaviour. Psychology explained how user compliance could be eroded to levels that effectively undermined levels of risk reduction afforded by systems. Linking the engineering and psychology disciplines intuitively, overall safety performance was improved by introducing technical requirements and making design decisions that minimized the system states and behaviours that led to user deviancy. As a commentary on the utility of transdisciplinary collaboration for technical specification, the processes used to bridge the two disciplines are conceptualised in a graphical model.

MiniOrb : a sensor interaction platform for indoor climate preferences [Extended Abstract]

We introduce the MiniOrb platform, a combined sensor and interaction platform built to understand and encourage the gathering of data around personal indoor climate preferences in office environments. The platform consists of a sensor device, gathering localised environmental data and an attached tangible interaction and ambient display device. This device allows users to understand their local environment and record preferences with regards to their preferred level of office comfort. In addition to the tangible device we built a web-based mobile application that allowed users to record comfort preferences through a different interface. This paper describes the design goals and technical setup of the MiniOrb platform.