L1 transfer in the acquisition of manner and path in Spanish by native speakers of English

In this article the authors argue that L1 transfer from English is not only important in the early stages of L2 acquisition of Spanish, but remains influential in later stages if there is not enough positive evidence for the learners to progress in their development (Lefebvre, White, & Jourdan, 2006). The findings are based on analyses of path and manner of movement in stories told by British students of Spanish (N = 68) of three different proficiency levels. Verbs that conflate motion and path, on the one hand, are mastered early, possibly because the existence of Latinate path verbs, such as enter and ascend in English, facilitate their early acquisition by British learners of Spanish. Contrary to the findings of Cadierno (2004) and Cadierno and Ruiz (2006), the encoding of manner, in particular in boundary crossing contexts, seems to pose enormous difficulties, even among students who had been abroad on a placement in a Spanish-speaking country prior to the data collection. An analysis of the frequency of manner verbs in Spanish corpora shows that one of the key reasons why students struggle with manner is that manner verbs are so infrequent in Spanish. The authors claim that scarce positive evidence in the language exposed to and little or no negative evidence are responsible for the long-lasting effect of transfer on the expression of manner.

Spatial and temporal effects of free-air CO2 enrichment (POPFACE) on leaf growth, cell expansion and cell production in a closed canopy of poplar

Leaf expansion in the fast-growing tree,Populus × euramericana was stimulated by elevated [CO2] in a closed-canopy forest plantation, exposed using a free air CO2 enrichment technique enabling long-term experimentation in field conditions. The effects of elevated [CO2] over time were characterized and related to the leaf plastochron index (LPI), and showed that leaf expansion was stimulated at very early (LPI, 0–3) and late (LPI, 6–8) stages in development. Early and late effects of elevated [CO2] were largely the result of increased cell expansion and increased cell production, respectively. Spatial effects of elevated [CO2] were also marked and increased final leaf size resulted from an effect on leaf area, but not leaf length, demonstrating changed leaf shape in response to [CO2]. Leaves exhibited a basipetal gradient of leaf development, investigated by defining seven interveinal areas, with growth ceasing first at the leaf tip. Interestingly, and in contrast to other reports, no spatial differences in epidermal cell size were apparent across the lamina, whereas a clear basipetal gradient in cell production rate was found. These data suggest that the rate and timing of cell production was more important in determining leaf shape, given the constant cell size across the leaf lamina. The effect of elevated [CO2] imposed on this developmental gradient suggested that leaf cell production continued longer in elevated [CO2] and that basal increases in cell production rate were also more important than altered cell expansion for increased final leaf size and altered leaf shape in elevated [CO2].

Rational expectations? Developer behaviour and development cycles in the central London office market

Purpose – Expectations of future market conditions are acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. The purpose of this paper is to study the central London office market from 1987 to 2009 and test for evidence of rational, adaptive and naive expectations. Design/methodology/approach – Two parallel approaches are applied to test for either rational or adaptive/naive expectations: vector auto-regressive (VAR) approach with Granger causality tests and recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts. Findings – Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, the authors do not find evidence of adaptive and naïve expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags between market signal and construction starts vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developer decisions are explained, to a large extent, by contemporaneous and historic conditions in both the City and the West End, but this is more likely to stem from the lengthy design, financing and planning permission processes rather than adaptive or naive expectations. Research limitations/implications – More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of large demand shocks and/or irrational behaviour. Practical implications – Developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. Originality/value – This paper focuses the scholarly debate of real estate cycles on the role of expectations. It is also one of very few spatially disaggregate studies of the subject matter.

Solar cycle 24: implications for energetic particles and long-term space climate change

The recent solar minimum was the longest and deepest of the space age, with the lowest average sunspot numbers for nearly a century. The Sun appears to be exiting a grand solar maximum (GSM) of activity which has persisted throughout the space age, and is headed into a significantly quieter period. Indeed, initial observations of solar cycle 24 (SC24) continue to show a relatively low heliospheric magnetic field strength and sunspot number (R), despite the average latitude of sunspots and the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet showing the rise to solar maximum is well underway. We extrapolate the available SC24 observations forward in time by assuming R will continue to follow a similar form to previous cycles, despite the end of the GSM, and predict a very weak cycle 24, with R peaking at ∼65–75 around the middle/end of 2012. Similarly, we estimate the heliospheric magnetic field strength will peak around 6nT. We estimate that average galactic cosmic ray fluxes above 1GV rigidity will be ∼10% higher in SC24 than SC23 and that the probability of a large SEP event during this cycle is 0.8, compared to 0.5 for SC23. Comparison of the SC24 R estimates with previous ends of GSMs inferred from 9300 years of cosmogenic isotope data places the current evolution of the Sun and heliosphere in the lowest 5% of cases, suggesting Maunder Minimum conditions are likely within the next 40 years.

Validation of the GRAPE single view aerosol retrieval for ATSR-2 and insights into the long term global AOD trend over the ocean

The Global Retrieval of ATSR Cloud Parameters and Evaluation (GRAPE) project has produced a global data-set of cloud and aerosol properties from the Along Track Scanning Radiometer-2 (ATSR-2) instrument, covering the time period 1995�2001. This paper presents the validation of aerosol optical depths (AODs) over the ocean from this product against AERONET sun-photometer measurements, as well as a comparison to the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) optical depth product produced by the Global Aerosol Climatology Project (GACP). The GRAPE AOD over ocean is found to be in good agreement with AERONET measurements, with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.79 and a best-fit slope of 1.0±0.1, but with a positive bias of 0.08±0.04. Although the GRAPE and GACP datasets show reasonable agreement, there are significant differences. These discrepancies are explored, and suggest that the downward trend in AOD reported by GACP may arise from changes in sampling due to the orbital drift of the AVHRR instruments.

The effect of the spacer length on the nature of coupling in side chain liquid crystals polymers and elastomers

Side chain liquid crystal polymers and elastomers exhibit a rich phase behaviour which arises from the antagonistic influences of the entropically disordered polymer chain configuration and the long range orientational ordering of the mesogenic units. This competition arises since the natural macroscopic phase separation is inhibited by the inherent chemical connectivity of the system. At the heart of this connectivity is the spacer link and we consider here its influence on the phase behaviour. In particular we consider a series of elastomers in which the number of alkyl units in the spacer is systematically varied from 2 to 6. The lengthening of the coupling spacer is accompanied by an alternation of the sign of coupling between the polymer chain and the mesogenic unit. These results demonstrate the dominating influence of the so-called hinge effect in determining the phase behaviour. In addition to the alternation of the sign there is some decrease in the magnitude of the coupling with increasing spacer length.

Long-distance dispersal and its influence on adaptation to host resistance in a heterogeneous landscape

Small propagules like pollen or fungal spores may be dispersed by the wind over distances of hundreds or thousands of kilometres,even though the median dispersal may be only a few metres. Such long-distance dispersal is a stochastic event which may be exceptionally important in shaping a population. It has been found repeatedly in field studies that subpopulations of wind-dispersed fungal pathogens virulent on cultivars with newly introduced, effective resistance genes are dominated by one or very few genotypes. The role of propagule dispersal distributions with distinct behaviour at long distances in generating this characteristic population structure was studied by computer simulation of dispersal of clonal organisms in a heterogeneous environment with fields of unselective and selective hosts. Power-law distributions generated founder events in which new, virulent genotypes rapidly colonized fields of resistant crop varieties and subsequently dominated the pathogen population on both selective and unselective varieties, in agreement with data on rust and powdery mildew fungi. An exponential dispersal function, with extremely rare dispersal over long distances, resulted in slower colonization of resistant varieties by virulent pathogens or even no colonization if the distance between susceptible source and resistant target fields was sufficiently large. The founder events resulting from long-distance dispersal were highly stochastic and exact quantitative prediction of genotype frequencies will therefore always be difficult.

The sample autocorrelation function and the detection of long-memory processes

The detection of long-range dependence in time series analysis is an important task to which this paper contributes by showing that whilst the theoretical definition of a long-memory (or long-range dependent) process is based on the autocorrelation function, it is not possible for long memory to be identified using the sum of the sample autocorrelations, as usually defined. The reason for this is that the sample sum is a predetermined constant for any stationary time series; a result that is independent of the sample size. Diagnostic or estimation procedures, such as those in the frequency domain, that embed this sum are equally open to this criticism. We develop this result in the context of long memory, extending it to the implications for the spectral density function and the variance of partial sums of a stationary stochastic process. The results are further extended to higher order sample autocorrelations and the bispectral density. The corresponding result is that the sum of the third order sample (auto) bicorrelations at lags h,k≥1, is also a predetermined constant, different from that in the second order case, for any stationary time series of arbitrary length.

Realism of rainfall in a very high-resolution regional climate model

The realistic representation of rainfall on the local scale in climate models remains a key challenge. Realism encompasses the full spatial and temporal structure of rainfall, and is a key indicator of model skill in representing the underlying processes. In particular, if rainfall is more realistic in a climate model, there is greater confidence in its projections of future change. In this study, the realism of rainfall in a very high-resolution (1.5 km) regional climate model (RCM) is compared to a coarser-resolution 12-km RCM. This is the first time a convection-permitting model has been run for an extended period (1989–2008) over a region of the United Kingdom, allowing the characteristics of rainfall to be evaluated in a climatological sense. In particular, the duration and spatial extent of hourly rainfall across the southern United Kingdom is examined, with a key focus on heavy rainfall. Rainfall in the 1.5-km RCM is found to be much more realistic than in the 12-km RCM. In the 12-km RCM, heavy rain events are not heavy enough, and tend to be too persistent and widespread. While the 1.5-km model does have a tendency for heavy rain to be too intense, it still gives a much better representation of its duration and spatial extent. Long-standing problems in climate models, such as the tendency for too much persistent light rain and errors in the diurnal cycle, are also considerably reduced in the 1.5-km RCM. Biases in the 12-km RCM appear to be linked to deficiencies in the representation of convection.

SANS/WANS time-resolving neutron scattering studies of polymer phase transitions using NIMROD

We use new neutron scattering instrumentation to follow in a single quantitative time-resolving experiment, the three key scales of structural development which accompany the crystallisation of synthetic polymers. These length scales span 3 orders of magnitude of the scattering vector. The study of polymer crystallisation dates back to the pioneering experiments of Keller and others who discovered the chain-folded nature of the thin lamellae crystals which are normally found in synthetic polymers. The inherent connectivity of polymers makes their crystallisation a multiscale transformation. Much understanding has developed over the intervening fifty years but the process has remained something of a mystery. There are three key length scales. The chain folded lamellar thickness is ~ 10nm, the crystal unit cell is ~ 1nm and the detail of the chain conformation is ~ 0.1nm. In previous work these length scales have been addressed using different instrumention or were coupled using compromised geometries. More recently researchers have attempted to exploit coupled time-resolved small-angle and wide-angle x-ray experiments. These turned out to be challenging experiments much related to the challenge of placing the scattering intensity on an absolute scale. However, they did stimulate the possibility of new phenomena in the very early stages of crystallisation. Although there is now considerable doubt on such experiments, they drew attention to the basic question as to the process of crystallisation in long chain molecules. We have used NIMROD on the second target station at ISIS to follow all three length scales in a time-resolving manner for poly(e-caprolactone). The technique can provide a single set of data from 0.01 to 100Å-1 on the same vertical scale. We present the results using a multiple scale model of the crystallisation process in polymers to analyse the results.

The formation of ice in a long-lived supercooled layer cloud

This article focuses on the characteristics of persistent thin single-layer mixed-phase clouds. We seek to answer two important questions: (i) how does ice continually nucleate and precipitate from these clouds, without the available ice nuclei becoming depleted? (ii) how do the supercooled liquid droplets persist in spite of the net flux of water vapour to the growing ice crystals? These questions are answered quantitatively using in situ and radar observations of a long-lived mixed-phase cloud layer over the Chilbolton Observatory. Doppler radar measurements show that the top 500 m of cloud (the top 250 m of which is mixed-phase, with ice virga beneath) is turbulent and well-mixed, and the liquid water content is adiabatic. This well-mixed layer is bounded above and below by stable layers. This inhibits entrainment of fresh ice nuclei into the cloud layer, yet our in situ and radar observations show that a steady flux of ≈100 m−2s−1 ice crystals fell from the cloud over the course of ∼1 day. Comparing this flux to the concentration of conventional ice nuclei expected to be present within the well-mixed layer, we find that these nuclei would be depleted within less than 1 h. We therefore argue that nucleation in these persistent supercooled clouds is strongly time-dependent in nature, with droplets freezing slowly over many hours, significantly longer than the few seconds residence time of an ice nucleus counter. Once nucleated, the ice crystals are observed to grow primarily by vapour deposition, because of the low liquid water path (21 g m−2) yet vapour-rich environment. Evidence for this comes from high differential reflectivity in the radar observations, and in situ imaging of the crystals. The flux of vapour from liquid to ice is quantified from in situ measurements, and we show that this modest flux (3.3 g m−2h−1) can be readily offset by slow radiative cooling of the layer to space.

A 27 day persistence model of near-Earth solar wind conditions: a long lead-time forecast and a benchmark for dynamical models

Geomagnetic activity has long been known to exhibit approximately 27 day periodicity, resulting from solar wind structures repeating each solar rotation. Thus a very simple near-Earth solar wind forecast is 27 day persistence, wherein the near-Earth solar wind conditions today are assumed to be identical to those 27 days previously. Effective use of such a persistence model as a forecast tool, however, requires the performance and uncertainty to be fully characterized. The first half of this study determines which solar wind parameters can be reliably forecast by persistence and how the forecast skill varies with the solar cycle. The second half of the study shows how persistence can provide a useful benchmark for more sophisticated forecast schemes, namely physics-based numerical models. Point-by-point assessment methods, such as correlation and mean-square error, find persistence skill comparable to numerical models during solar minimum, despite the 27 day lead time of persistence forecasts, versus 2–5 days for numerical schemes. At solar maximum, however, the dynamic nature of the corona means 27 day persistence is no longer a good approximation and skill scores suggest persistence is out-performed by numerical models for almost all solar wind parameters. But point-by-point assessment techniques are not always a reliable indicator of usefulness as a forecast tool. An event-based assessment method, which focusses key solar wind structures, finds persistence to be the most valuable forecast throughout the solar cycle. This reiterates the fact that the means of assessing the “best” forecast model must be specifically tailored to its intended use.

Energy exchange in a dense urban environment – part I: temporal variability of long-term observations in central London

Though anthropogenic impacts on boundary layer climates are expected to be large in dense urban areas, to date very few studies of energy flux observations are available. We report on 3.5 years of measurements gathered in central London, UK. Radiometer and eddy covariance observations at two adjacent sites, at different heights, were analysed at various temporal scales and with respect to meteorological conditions, such as cloud cover. Although the evaporative flux is generally small due to low moisture availability and a predominately impervious surface, the enhancement following rainfall usually lasts for 12–18 h. As both the latent and sensible heat fluxes are larger in the afternoon, they maintain a relatively consistent Bowen ratio throughout the middle of the day. Strong storage and anthropogenic heat fluxes sustain high and persistently positive sensible heat fluxes. At the monthly time scale, the urban surface often loses more energy by this turbulent heat flux than is gained from net all-wave radiation. Auxiliary anthropogenic heat flux information suggest human activities in the study area are sufficient to provide this energy.

Learning to think in a second language: effects of proficiency and length of exposure in English learners of German

The aim of the current study is to investigate motion event cognition in second language learners in a higher education learning context. Based on recent findings showing that speakers of grammatical aspect languages like English attend less to the endpoint (goal) of events than speakers of non-aspect languages like Swedish in a nonverbal categorization task involving working memory (Athanasopoulos & Bylund, 2013; Bylund & Athanasopoulos, this issue), the current study asks whether native speakers of an aspect language start paying more attention to event endpoints when learning a non-aspect language. Native English and German (a non-aspect language) speakers, and English learners of L2 German, who were pursuing studies in German language and literature at an English university, were asked to match a target scene with intermediate degree of endpoint orientation with two alternate scenes with low and high degree of endpoint orientation, respectively. Results showed that, when compared to the native English speakers, the learners of German were more prone to base their similarity judgements on endpoint saliency, rather than ongoingness, primarily as a function of increasing L2 proficiency and year of university study. Further analyses revealed a non-linear relationship between length of L2 exposure and categorization patterns, subserved by a progressive strengthening of the relationship between L2 proficiency and categorization as length of exposure increased. These findings present evidence that cognitive restructuring may occur through increasing experience with an L2, but also suggest that this relationship may be complex, and unfold over a long period of time.

The population dynamics of disease on short and long time-scales

Observational evidence is scarce concerning the distribution of plant pathogen population sizes or densities as a function of time-scale or spatial scale. For wild pathosystems we can only get indirect evidence from evolutionary patterns and the consequences of biological invasions.We have little or no evidence bearing on extermination of hosts by pathogens, or successful escape of a host from a pathogen. Evidence over the last couple of centuries from crops suggest that the abundance of particular pathogens in the spectrum affecting a given host can vary hugely on decadal timescales. However, this may be an artefact of domestication and intensive cultivation. Host-pathogen dynamics can be formulated mathematically fairly easily–for example as SIR-type differential equation or difference equation models, and this has been the (successful) focus of recent work in crops. “Long-term” is then discussed in terms of the time taken to relax from a perturbation to the asymptotic state. However, both host and pathogen dynamics are driven by environmental factors as well as their mutual interactions, and both host and pathogen co-evolve, and evolve in response to external factors. We have virtually no information about the importance and natural role of higher trophic levels (hyperpathogens) and competitors, but they could also induce long-scale fluctuations in the abundance of pathogens on particular hosts. In wild pathosystems the host distribution cannot be modelled as either a uniform density or even a uniform distribution of fields (which could then be treated as individuals). Patterns of short term density-dependence and the detail of host distribution are therefore critical to long-term dynamics. Host density distributions are not usually scale-free, but are rarely uniform or clearly structured on a single scale. In a (multiply structured) metapopulation with coevolution and external disturbances it could well be the case that the time required to attain equilibrium (if it exists) based on conditions stable over a specified time-scale is longer than that time-scale. Alternatively, local equilibria may be reached fairly rapidly following perturbations but the meta-population equilibrium be attained very slowly. In either case, meta-stability on various time-scales is a more relevant than equilibrium concepts in explaining observed patterns.