Probabilistic classification of acute myocardial infarction from multiple cardiac markers

Logistic regression and Gaussian mixture model (GMM) classifiers have been trained to estimate the probability of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in patients based upon the concentrations of a panel of cardiac markers. The panel consists of two new markers, fatty acid binding protein (FABP) and glycogen phosphorylase BB (GPBB), in addition to the traditional cardiac troponin I (cTnI), creatine kinase MB (CKMB) and myoglobin. The effect of using principal component analysis (PCA) and Fisher discriminant analysis (FDA) to preprocess the marker concentrations was also investigated. The need for classifiers to give an accurate estimate of the probability of AMI is argued and three categories of performance measure are described, namely discriminatory ability, sharpness, and reliability. Numerical performance measures for each category are given and applied. The optimum classifier, based solely upon the samples take on admission, was the logistic regression classifier using FDA preprocessing. This gave an accuracy of 0.85 (95% confidence interval: 0.78-0.91) and a normalised Brier score of 0.89. When samples at both admission and a further time, 1-6 h later, were included, the performance increased significantly, showing that logistic regression classifiers can indeed use the information from the five cardiac markers to accurately and reliably estimate the probability AMI. © Springer-Verlag London Limited 2008.

Vegetation and climate c. 12 300-9000 cal. yr BP at Andoya, NW Norway

Owing to proximity of the North Atlantic Stream and the shelf, the And circle divide ya biota are assumed to have responded rapidly to climatic changes taking place after the Weichselian glaciation. Palynological, macrofossil, loss-on-ignition, tephra and C-14 data from three sites at the northern part of the island of And circle divide ya were studied. The period 12 300-11 950 cal. yr BP was characterized by polar desert vegetation, and 11 950-11 050 cal. yr BP by a moisture-demanding predominantly low-arctic Oxyria vegetation. During the period 11 050-10 650 cal. yr BP, there was a climatic amelioration towards a sub-arctic climate and heaths dominated by Empetrum. After 10 650 cal. yr BP the Oxyria vegetation disappeared. As early as about 10 800 cal. yr BP the bryozoan Cristatella mucedo indicated a climate sufficient for Betula woodland. However, tree birch did not establish until 10 420-10 250 cal. yr BP, indicating a time-lag for the formation of Betula ecotypes adapted to the oceanic climate of And circle divide ya. From about 10 150 to 9400 cal. yr BP the summers were dry and warm. There was a change towards moister, though comparatively warm, climatic conditions about 9400 cal. yr BP. The present data are compared with evidence from marine sediments and the deglaciation history in the region. It is suggested that during most of the period 11 500-10 250 cal. yr BP a similar situation as in present southern Greenland existed, with birch woodland in the inner fjords near the ice sheet and low-arctic heath vegetation along the outer coast.

Efficacy of sod removal in regenerating fen vegetation for the conservation of the marsh fritillary butterfly Euphydryas aurinia, Montiaghs Moss Nature Reserve, County Antrim, Northern Ireland.

The efficacy of ‘sod removal’ as a fenland restoration technique was tested using an experimental approach at Montiaghs Moss Nature Reserve, Northern Ireland, from 2006 to 2008. The site suffered from rank growth of purple moor-grass Molinia caerulea which was out-competing herbaceous species. Soil was removed up to a depth of 15 cm completely denuding vegetation in the experimental plot exposing bare peat. By July 2007, 15.2% of sod-removal areas were revegetated; by October 2008 cover had risen to 64.6%. Of this cover, purple moor-grass accounted for only 9-11% compared to 78- 79% on control plots. Cover of other rank-forming grass species was also significantly reduced. Sod removal significantly increased the cover of species characteristic of fenlands including sedges Carex spp., rushes Juncus spp., marsh pennywort Hydrocotyle vulgaris and lesser spearwort Ranunculus flammula. It seems likely that sod removal, which lowered the surface of the peat, restored minerotrophic conditions and exposed the historical seed bank stimulating regeneration of some fenland specialists and pioneer species; this resulted in significantly higher species richness on sod removal plots than control plots two years after treatment. There was no demonstrable effect of sod removal on abundance of devil’s-bit scabious Succisa pratensis, the larval food plant of the Annex II listed marsh fritillary butterfly Euphydryas aurinia. We recommend that consideration should be given to artificially seeding devil’s-bit scabious soon after sod removal treatment to promote early recolonisation and to increase plant abundance on the site.