DESARROLLO DE APLICACIONES ESTADÍSTICAS PARA LA AGRICULTURA DE PRECISIÓN. STATISTICAL APPLICATIONS FOR PRECISION AGRICULTURE

A partir de las últimas décadas se ha impulsado el desarrollo y la utilización de los Sistemas de Información Geográficos (SIG) y los Sistemas de Posicionamiento Satelital (GPS) orientados a mejorar la eficiencia productiva de distintos sistemas de cultivos extensivos en términos agronómicos, económicos y ambientales. Estas nuevas tecnologías permiten medir variabilidad espacial de propiedades del sitio como conductividad eléctrica aparente y otros atributos del terreno así como el efecto de las mismas sobre la distribución espacial de los rendimientos. Luego, es posible aplicar el manejo sitio-específico en los lotes para mejorar la eficiencia en el uso de los insumos agroquímicos, la protección del medio ambiente y la sustentabilidad de la vida rural. En la actualidad, existe una oferta amplia de recursos tecnológicos propios de la agricultura de precisión para capturar variación espacial a través de los sitios dentro del terreno. El óptimo uso del gran volumen de datos derivado de maquinarias de agricultura de precisión depende fuertemente de las capacidades para explorar la información relativa a las complejas interacciones que subyacen los resultados productivos. La covariación espacial de las propiedades del sitio y el rendimiento de los cultivos ha sido estudiada a través de modelos geoestadísticos clásicos que se basan en la teoría de variables regionalizadas. Nuevos desarrollos de modelos estadísticos contemporáneos, entre los que se destacan los modelos lineales mixtos, constituyen herramientas prometedoras para el tratamiento de datos correlacionados espacialmente. Más aún, debido a la naturaleza multivariada de las múltiples variables registradas en cada sitio, las técnicas de análisis multivariado podrían aportar valiosa información para la visualización y explotación de datos georreferenciados. La comprensión de las bases agronómicas de las complejas interacciones que se producen a la escala de lotes en producción, es hoy posible con el uso de éstas nuevas tecnologías. Los objetivos del presente proyecto son: (l) desarrollar estrategias metodológicas basadas en la complementación de técnicas de análisis multivariados y geoestadísticas, para la clasificación de sitios intralotes y el estudio de interdependencias entre variables de sitio y rendimiento; (ll) proponer modelos mixtos alternativos, basados en funciones de correlación espacial de los términos de error que permitan explorar patrones de correlación espacial de los rendimientos intralotes y las propiedades del suelo en los sitios delimitados. From the last decades the use and development of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Satellite Positioning Systems (GPS) is highly promoted in cropping systems. Such technologies allow measuring spatial variability of site properties including electrical conductivity and others soil features as well as their impact on the spatial variability of yields. Therefore, site-specific management could be applied to improve the efficiency in the use of agrochemicals, the environmental protection, and the sustainability of the rural life. Currently, there is a wide offer of technological resources to capture spatial variation across sites within field. However, the optimum use of data coming from the precision agriculture machineries strongly depends on the capabilities to explore the information about the complex interactions underlying the productive outputs. The covariation between spatial soil properties and yields from georeferenced data has been treated in a graphical manner or with standard geostatistical approaches. New statistical modeling capabilities from the Mixed Linear Model framework are promising to deal with correlated data such those produced by the precision agriculture. Moreover, rescuing the multivariate nature of the multiple data collected at each site, several multivariate statistical approaches could be crucial tools for data analysis with georeferenced data. Understanding the basis of complex interactions at the scale of production field is now within reach the use of these new techniques. Our main objectives are: (1) to develop new statistical strategies, based on the complementarities of geostatistics and multivariate methods, useful to classify sites within field grown with grain crops and analyze the interrelationships of several soil and yield variables, (2) to propose mixed linear models to predict yield according spatial soil variability and to build contour maps to promote a more sustainable agriculture.

Estrategias reproductivas de lagartos del género tupinambis en distintos contextos ecológicos de la Provincia de Córdoba. Reproductive strategies of lizards of genus tupinambis in different ecological contexts of the Cordoba province.

Los caracteres de historia de vida son sensibles a la variación histórica o actual de los factores ambientales. Estudiar dicha variabilidad mediante la realización de estudios comparativos permite obtener evidencias sobre las causas de la evolución de ciertos caracteres. Los lagartos son excelentes modelos para el estudio de selección sexual y evolución del comportamiento social y reproductivo debido a que su relativa baja dispersión podría tener consecuencias evolutivas profundas en el desarrollo de distintas estrategias, ya que las poblaciones, al encontrarse más aisladas, podrían verse influenciadas por las fuerzas selectivas locales, mostrando una alta heterogeneidad espacial y temporal. Por eso nos propusimos realizar este trabajo para evaluar si existen diferentes estrategias reproductivas en los lagartos del género Tupinambis en distintos contextos ecológicos de la provincia de Córdoba. Para ello analizaremos distintas características de la historia de vida en poblaciones de estas especies tales como estructura de tamaño, sexo operativo, frecuencia reproductiva, tamaño de camada, condición corporal reproductiva, tamaño de madurez sexual, características espermáticas, elección de sitios de nidificación, etc. Además analizaremos la estructura genética de las poblaciones para inferir procesos demográficos históricos y patrones actuales de flujo génico y conectividad. The life history traits are sensitive to historical or current variation of environmental factors. Studying this variability by performing comparative studies allows obtaining evidence on the causes of the evolution of certain characters. Lizards are excellent models for studying sexual selection and evolution of social and reproductive behavior because their relatively low dispersal capabilities could have profound evolutionary consequences in the development of different strategies, since isolated populations may be stronger influenced by local selective forces, showing a high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. We decided to perform this study to assess whether there are different reproductive strategies in lizards of the genus Tupinambis in different ecological contexts of the Cordoba province. We will analyze different life history traits in populations of these species such as size structure, operational sex ratio, reproductive frequency, litter size, body condition, size at sexual maturity, sperm characteristics, choice of nesting sites, etc.. We also analyzed the genetic structure of populations to infer historical demographic processes and current patterns of gene flow and connectivity.

Defining habitat characteristics influencing the distribution, density and growth of Plaice (Pleuronectes Platessa) and Dab (Limanda Limanda) on west of Ireland nursery grounds

Plaice (Pleuronectes platessa, L.) and dab (Limanda limanda, L.) are among the most abundant flatfishes in the north-eastern Atlantic region and the dominant species in shallow coastal nursery grounds. With increasing pressures on commercial flatfish stocks in combination with changing coastal environments, better knowledge of population dynamics during all life stages is needed to evaluate variability in year-class strength and recruitment to the fishery. The aim of this research was to investigate the complex interplay of biotic and abiotic habitat components influencing the distribution, density and growth of plaice and dab during the vulnerable juvenile life stage and to gain insight in spatial and temporal differences in nursery habitat quality along the west coast of Ireland. Intraspecific variability in plaice diet was observed at different spatial scales and showed a link with condition, recent growth and morphology. This highlights the effect of food availability on habitat quality and the need to consider small scale variation when attempting to link habitat quality to feeding, growth and condition of juvenile flatfish. There was evidence of trophic, spatial and temporal resource partitioning between juvenile plaice and dab allowing the co-existence of morphologically similar species in nursery grounds. In the limited survey years there was no evidence that the carrying capacity of the studied nursery grounds was reached but spatial and interannual variations in fish growth indicated fluctuating environments in terms of food availability, predator densities, sediment features and physico-chemical conditions. Predation was the most important factor affecting habitat quality for juvenile plaice and dab with crab densities negatively correlated to fish condition whereas shrimp densities were negatively associated with densities of small-sized juveniles in spring. A comparison of proxies for fish growth showed the advantage of Fulton’s K for routine use whereas RNA:DNA ratios proved less powerful when short-term environmental fluctuations are lacking. This study illustrated how distinct sets of habitat features can drive spatial variation in density and condition of juvenile flatfish highlighting the value of studying both variables when modeling habitat requirements. The habitat models generated in this study also provide a powerful tool to predict potential climate and anthropogenic impacts on the distribution and condition of juveniles in flatfish nurseries. The need for effective coastal zone management was emphasized to ensure a sustainable use of coastal resources and successful flatfish recruitment to the fishery.

Data mining with graphical models

Data Mining, Learning from data, graphical models, possibility theory

Data-driven system identification via evolutionary retrieval of Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models

Systemidentification, evolutionary automatic, data-driven model, fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno grammar, genotype interpretability, toxicity-prediction

Models and methods for supporting lot sizing decisions in product recovery systems

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Wirtschaftswiss., Diss., 2011

Approximations of the Fisher information for the construction of efficient experimental designs in nonlinear mixed effects models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2012

Effects of Exercise Training on Heart Rate Variability in Chagas Heart Disease

Background: Heart rate variability (HRV) is a marker of autonomic dysfunction severity. The effects of physical training on HRV indexes in Chagas heart disease (CHD) are not well established. Objective: To evaluate the changes in HRV indexes in response to physical training in CHD. Methods: Patients with CHD and left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, physically inactive, were randomized either to the intervention (IG, N = 18) or control group (CG, N = 19). The IG participated in a 12-week exercise program consisting of 3 sessions/week. Results: Mean age was 49.5 ± 8 years, 59% males, mean LVEF was 36.3 ± 7.8%. Baseline HRV indexes were similar between groups. From baseline to follow-up, total power (TP): 1653 (IQ 625 - 3418) to 2794 (1617 - 4452) ms, p = 0.02) and very low frequency power: 586 (290 - 1565) to 815 (610 - 1425) ms, p = 0.047) increased in the IG, but not in the CG. The delta (post - pre) HRV indexes were similar: SDNN 11.5 ± 30.0 vs. 3.7 ± 25.1 ms. p = 0.10; rMSSD 2 (6 - 17) vs. 1 (21 - 9) ms. p = 0.43; TP 943 (731 - 3130) vs. 1780 (921 - 2743) Hz. p = 0.46; low frequency power (LFP) 1.0 (150 - 197) vs. 60 (111 - 146) Hz. p = 0.85; except for high frequency power, which tended to increase in the IG: 42 (133 - 92) vs. 79 (61 - 328) Hz. p = 0.08). Conclusion: In the studied population, the variation of HRV indexes was similar between the active and inactive groups. Clinical improvement with physical activity seems to be independent from autonomic dysfunction markers in CHD.

Ivabradine Improves Heart Rate Variability in Patients with Nonischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Background: Ivabradine is a novel specific heart rate (HR)-lowering agent that improves event-free survival in patients with heart failure (HF). Objectives: We aimed to evaluate the effect of ivabradine on time domain indices of heart rate variability (HRV) in patients with HF. Methods: Forty-eight patients with compensated HF of nonischemic origin were included. Ivabradine treatment was initiated according to the latest HF guidelines. For HRV analysis, 24-h Holter recording was obtained from each patient before and after 8 weeks of treatment with ivabradine. Results: The mean RR interval, standard deviation of all normal to normal RR intervals (SDNN), the standard deviation of 5-min mean RR intervals (SDANN), the mean of the standard deviation of all normal-to-normal RR intervals for all 5-min segments (SDNN index), the percentage of successive normal RR intervals exceeding 50 ms (pNN50), and the square root of the mean of the squares of the differences between successive normal to normal RR intervals (RMSSD) were low at baseline before treatment with ivabradine. After 8 weeks of treatment with ivabradine, the mean HR (83.6 ± 8.0 and 64.6 ± 5.8, p < 0.0001), mean RR interval (713 ± 74 and 943 ± 101 ms, p < 0.0001), SDNN (56.2 ± 15.7 and 87.9 ± 19.4 ms, p < 0.0001), SDANN (49.5 ± 14.7 and 76.4 ± 19.5 ms, p < 0.0001), SDNN index (24.7 ± 8.8 and 38.3 ± 13.1 ms, p < 0.0001), pNN50 (2.4 ± 1.6 and 3.2 ± 2.2 %, p < 0.0001), and RMSSD (13.5 ± 4.6 and 17.8 ± 5.4 ms, p < 0.0001) substantially improved, which sustained during both when awake and while asleep. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that treatment with ivabradine improves HRV in nonischemic patients with HF.

Experimental design for mixed models with application to population pharmacokinetic studies

experimental design, mixed model, random coefficient regression model, population pharmacokinetics, approximate design

Heart Rate Variability Correlates to Functional Aerobic Impairment in Hemodialysis Patients

Background:Autonomic dysfunction (AD) is highly prevalent in hemodialysis (HD) patients and has been implicated in their increased risk of cardiovascular mortality.Objective:To correlate heart rate variability (HRV) during exercise treadmill test (ETT) with the values obtained when measuring functional aerobic impairment (FAI) in HD patients and controls.Methods:Cross-sectional study involving HD patients and a control group. Clinical examination, blood sampling, transthoracic echocardiogram, 24-hour Holter, and ETT were performed. A symptom-limited ramp treadmill protocol with active recovery was employed. Heart rate variability was evaluated in time domain at exercise and recovery periods.Results:Forty-one HD patients and 41 controls concluded the study. HD patients had higher FAI and lower HRV than controls (p<0.001 for both). A correlation was found between exercise HRV (SDNN) and FAI in both groups. This association was independent of age, sex, smoking, body mass index, diabetes, and clonidine or beta-blocker use, but not of hemoglobin levels.Conclusion:No association was found between FAI and HRV on 24-hour Holter or at the recovery period of ETT. Of note, exercise HRV was inversely correlated with FAI in HD patients and controls. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2015; [online]. ahead print, PP.0-0)

Heart Rate and Systolic Blood Pressure Variability on Recently Diagnosed Diabetics

Background:Diabetes affects approximately 250 million people in the world. Cardiovascular autonomic neuropathy is a common complication of diabetes that leads to severe postural hypotension, exercise intolerance, and increased incidence of silent myocardial infarction.Objective:To determine the variability of heart rate (HR) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) in recently diagnosed diabetic patients.Methods:The study included 30 patients with a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes of less than 2 years and 30 healthy controls. We used a Finapres® device to measure during five minutes beat-to-beat HR and blood pressure in three experimental conditions: supine position, standing position, and rhythmic breathing at 0.1 Hz. The results were analyzed in the time and frequency domains.Results:In the HR analysis, statistically significant differences were found in the time domain, specifically on short-term values such as standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN), root mean square of successive differences (RMSSD), and number of pairs of successive NNs that differ by more than 50 ms (pNN50). In the BP analysis, there were no significant differences, but there was a sympathetic dominance in all three conditions. The baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) decreased in patients with early diabetes compared with healthy subjects during the standing maneuver.Conclusions:There is a decrease in HR variability in patients with early type 2 diabetes. No changes were observed in the BP analysis in the supine position, but there were changes in BRS with the standing maneuver, probably due to sympathetic hyperactivity.

Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

Optimal designs for mixed effects poisson regression models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2010