Model projections for household energy use in India

Energy use in developing countries is heterogeneous across households. Present day global energy models are mostly too aggregate to account for this heterogeneity. Here, a bottom-up model for residential energy use that starts from key dynamic concepts on energy use in developing countries is presented and applied to India. Energy use and fuel choice is determined for five end-use functions (cooking, water heating, space heating, lighting and appliances) and for five different income quintiles in rural and urban areas. The paper specifically explores the consequences of different assumptions for income distribution and rural electrification on residential sector energy use and CO(2) emissions, finding that results are clearly sensitive to variations in these parameters. As a result of population and economic growth, total Indian residential energy use is expected to increase by around 65-75% in 2050 compared to 2005, but residential carbon emissions may increase by up to 9-10 times the 2005 level. While a more equal income distribution and rural electrification enhance the transition to commercial fuels and reduce poverty, there is a trade-off in terms of higher CO(2) emissions via increased electricity use. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon(1-3). With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses(4-9). As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world's major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve `health': about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.

Proactive control of sequential saccades in the human supplementary eye field

Our ability to regulate behavior based on past experience has thus far been examined using single movements. However, natural behavior typically involves a sequence of movements. Here, we examined the effect of previous trial type on the concurrent planning of sequential saccades using a unique paradigm. The task consisted of two trial types: no-shift trials, which implicitly encouraged the concurrent preparation of the second saccade in a subsequent trial; and target-shift trials, which implicitly discouraged the same in the next trial. Using the intersaccadic interval as an index of concurrent planning, we found evidence for context-based preparation of sequential saccades. We also used functional MRI-guided, single-pulse, transcranial magnetic stimulation on human subjects to test the role of the supplementary eye field (SEF) in the proactive control of sequential eye movements. Results showed that (i) stimulating the SEF in the previous trial disrupted the previous trial type-based preparation of the second saccade in the nonstimulated current trial, (ii) stimulating the SEF in the current trial rectified the disruptive effect caused by stimulation in the previous trial, and (iii) stimulating the SEF facilitated the preparation of second saccades based on previous trial type even when the previous trial was not stimulated. Taken together, we show how the human SEF is causally involved in proactive preparation of sequential saccades.

Antiguo Oriente: Cuadernos del Centro de Estudios de Historia del Antiguo Oriente, 2006, n° 4 (número completo)

How old is the Kingdom of Edom? A review of new evidence and recent discussion / Eveline Van Der Steen ; Piotr Bienkowski -- A problem of pedubasts? / Dan´El Kahn -- Le ciel selon l´Hymne Orphique à Ouranos et selon des textes funéraires égyptiens (PT, CT, BD): une brève comparaison préliminaire / Amanda–Alice Marvelia -- An epigraphic reanalysis of Two Stelae from Firs Intermediate Period Dendera in the Cairo Museum / Tracy Musacchio -- Mass production in Mesopotamia / Morris Silver -- Iron Age “negative” pottery: a reassessment / Juan Manuel Tebes -- The Cordage from the 2001- Season of the excavations at Berenike (Egyptian Red Sea Coast): preliminary results / André J. Veldmeijer -- Article review. Carr, David M., Writing of the Tablet of the Heart: origins of scripture and literature / Itamar Singer -- Reseñas bibliográficas -- Política editorial

High Aspect Ratio (L/D) Riser Viv Prediction Using Wake Oscillator Model

A two-dimensional (2-D) vortex-induced vibration (VIV) prediction model for high aspect ratio (LID) riser subjected to uniform and sheared flow is studied in this paper. The nonlinear structure equations are considered. The near wake dynamics describing the fluctuating nature of vortex shedding is modeled using classical van der Pol equation. A new approach was applied to calibrate the empirical parameters in the wake oscillator model. Compared the predicted results with the experimental data and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) results. Good agreements are observed. It can be concluded that the present model can be used as simple computational tool in predicting some aspects of VIV of long flexible structures. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lmlk seal impressions once again : a second rejoinder to Oded Lipschits

Abstract: This article deals in the main with claims made by Lipschits et al. that the lmlk stamps were partly manufactured after Sennacherib’s campaign in 701 BCE. It forms specifically a rejoinder to Lipschits’ claims published recently. Finally, in the epilogue, are presented the data dealing with the suggestions of Lipschits, which have already been published by Stern, Grena and Van der Veen.

Caracterización de patrones de crecimiento agrícola y su relación con la degradación de la tierra en agricultura de laderas: estudios de caso en Masaya sur

El presente trabajo se realizó con el objetivo de identificar loa diferentes patrones de crecimiento agrícola que caracterizan las comunidades de Quebrada Honda y Pacayita en la zona sur del Departamento de Masaya, así como la relación de estos patrones con la degradación de la tierra. La metodología usada fue una combinación de pistas metodológicas recomendadas por el marco teórico de Diagnóstico Rural Rápido (Rietbergen Mckraken, Jenifer, 1991) y de Estilos para hacer agricultura (Van der Ploeg, 1992). Las principales variables que diferencian los patrones son el mercados, la tecnología y la degradación de la tierra. Los principales indicadores de degradación encontrados fueren el índice de complejidad del agroecosistema (Holdrige, 1965) el número de huellas de erosión/ha y la capacidad de conversión energética del sistema. (Pimentel, 1980) Se identificaron 5 Patrones de crecimiento Agrícola, los que fueron identificados y caracterizados como: Tradicional, conservacionista, moderno, floricultor y Combinado. El Patrón de crecimiento combinado no se estudió por considerarse que está poco relacionado con la agricultura. Se encontró una diferencia en aspectos socio-económicos, biofísicos, agrotécnicos y de degradación de tierras. Por un lado, caso representativo del Patrón de crecimiento consevacionista presenta los índices más altos relativos a la Sostenibilidad ecológica y por otro, el caso representativo del Patrón de crecimiento floricultor presenta los menores índices de sostenibilidad ecológica. Los casos del Patrón de crecimiento moderno y floricultor son los más dependientes de la variables mercado y tecnología. En términos de económicos, los casos que alcanzan mayor rentabilidad son aquellos que hacen mayor uso de los recursos internos de la finca 3.4%. El 48% de la población es menor de 15 años de edad. Se estima que el total de la población será duplicado en 20 años. La misma fuente indica que el 57% de la población rural de Nicaragua esta en pobreza absoluta. El presente trabajo tiene como propósito identificar y caracterizar los Patrones de crecimiento Agrícola existentes en las comunidades de Quebrada Honda y Pacayita. También presentar de forma general un diagnóstico de la relación de estos patrones de crecimiento agrícola con la degradación de la tierra a través de los siguientes parámetros: Eficiencia de conversión energética del sistema, huellas de erosión, biodiversidad, porcentaje de energía contaminante y no contaminante que ingresa al sistema. El problema creciente de la degradación de tierras, la necesidad de aumento de la productividad y el nivel de pobreza de la gente de las tierra de laderas, justifica la necesidad de investigar las diferentes estrategias de producci6n (Patrones de crecimiento agrícola) que los agricultores de estas zonas están desarrollando, su sostenibilidad y el efecto que están ejerciendo sobre la degradación de la tierra. El estudio y diferenciación de los patrones de crecimiento agrícola en estas zonas y su efecto sobre la degradación de la tierra facilitaría la implementación de programas que promuevan prácticas agrícolas locales o externas que puedan garantizar un desarrollo ecológicamente sostenible.

一类非线性振动系统的渐近解

本文提出分析一类强非线性振子的一种渐近方法,导出了用振幅和相位表示的二阶近似解,给出了振幅和相位所满足的方程,借此可以确定极限环的振幅和性态。作为实例,还研究了修正的van der Pol振子,给出了相应的极限环的二阶近似解析解,与数值解的比较表明,两者非常相符。

Asymptotic solutions to a class of nonlinear oscillation systems

In this paper, we present an asymptotic method for the analysis of a class of strongly nonlinear oscillators, derive second-order approximate solutions to them expressed in terms of their amplitudes and phases, and obtain the equations governing the amplitudes and phases, by which the amplitudes of the corresponding limit cycles and their behaviour can be determined. As an example, we investigate the modified van der Pol oscillator and give the second-order approximate analytical solution of its limit cycle. The comparison with the numerical solutions shows that the two results agree well with each other.