Changes in size and age at maturity of the northern stock of Tilefish (Lopholatilus chamaeleonticeps) after a period of overfishing

The modern fishery for Tilefish (Lopholatilus chamaeleonticeps) developed during the 1970s, offshore of southern New England, in the western North Atlantic Ocean. The population quickly became over exploited, with documented declines in catch rates and changes in demographic traits. In an earlier study, median size at maturity (L50) of males declined from 62.6 to 38.6 cm fork length (FL) and median age at maturity (A50) of males declined from 7.1 to 4.6 years between 1978 and 1982. As part of a cooperative research effort to improve the data-limited Tilefish assessment, we updated maturity parameter estimates through the use of an otolith aging method and macroscopic and microscopic evaluations of gonads. The vital rates for this species have continued to change, particularly for males. By 2008, male L50 and A50 had largely rebounded, to 54.1 cm FL and 5.9 years. Changes in female reproductive schedules were less variable among years, but the smallest L50 and youngest A50 were recorded in 2008. Tilefish are dimorphic, where the largest fish are male, and male spawning success is postulated to be socially mediated. These traits may explain the initial rapid decline and the subsequent rebound in male L50 and A50 and less dramatic effects on females. Other factors that likely contribute to the dynamics of maturity parameter estimates are the relatively short period of overfishing and the amount of time since efforts to rebuild this fishery began, as measured in numbers of generations. This study also confirms the gonochoristic sexual pattern of the northern stock, and it reveals evidence of age truncation and relatively high proportions of immature Tilefish in the recent catch.

Changes of mind in decision-making.

A decision is a commitment to a proposition or plan of action based on evidence and the expected costs and benefits associated with the outcome. Progress in a variety of fields has led to a quantitative understanding of the mechanisms that evaluate evidence and reach a decision. Several formalisms propose that a representation of noisy evidence is evaluated against a criterion to produce a decision. Without additional evidence, however, these formalisms fail to explain why a decision-maker would change their mind. Here we extend a model, developed to account for both the timing and the accuracy of the initial decision, to explain subsequent changes of mind. Subjects made decisions about a noisy visual stimulus, which they indicated by moving a handle. Although they received no additional information after initiating their movement, their hand trajectories betrayed a change of mind in some trials. We propose that noisy evidence is accumulated over time until it reaches a criterion level, or bound, which determines the initial decision, and that the brain exploits information that is in the processing pipeline when the initial decision is made to subsequently either reverse or reaffirm the initial decision. The model explains both the frequency of changes of mind as well as their dependence on both task difficulty and whether the initial decision was accurate or erroneous. The theoretical and experimental findings advance the understanding of decision-making to the highly flexible and cognitive acts of vacillation and self-correction.

Year-to-year changes of vertical temperature distribution in the California Current region: 1954 to 1986

Studies by Enfield and Allen (1980), McLain et al (1985), and others have shown that anomalously warm years in the northern coastal California Current correspond to El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Ocean model studies suggest a mechanical link between the northern coastal California Current and the equatorial ocean through long waves that propagate cyclonically along the ocean boundary (McCreary 1976; Clarke 1983; Shriver et al 1991). However, distinct observational evidence of such an oceanic connection is not extensive. Much of the supposed El Niño variation in temperature and sea level data from the coastal California Current region can be associated with the effects of anomalously intense north Pacific atmospheric cyclogenesis, which is frequently augmented during El Niño years (Wallace and Gutzler 1981; Simpson 1983; Emery and Hamilton 1984). This study uses time series of ocean temperature data to distinguish between locally forced effects, initiated by north Pacific atmospheric changes, and remotely forced effects, initiated by equatorial Pacific atmospheric changes related to El Niño events.

Changes in frost frequency and desert vegetation assemblages in Grand Canyon, Arizona

The effect of decreasing frost frequency on desert vegetation was documented in Grand Canyon by replication of historical photographs. Although views by numerous photographers of Grand Canyon have been examined, 400 Robert Brewster Stanton and Franklin A. Nims views taken in the winter of 1889-1890 provide the best information on recent plant distribution. In Grand Canyon, where grazing is limited by the rugged topography, vegetation dynamics are controlled by climate and by demographic processes such as seed productivity, recruitment, longevity and mortality. The replicated photographs show distribution and abundance of several species were limited by severe frost before 1889. Two of these, brittlebush (Encelia farinosa) and barrel cactus (Ferocactus cylindraceus), have clearly expanded their ranges up-canyon and have increased their densities at sites where they were present in 1890. In 1890, brittlebush was present in warm microhabitats that provided refugia from frost damage. Views showing desert vegetation in 1923 indicate that Encelia expanded rapidly to near its current distribution between 1890 and 1923, whereas the expansion of Ferocactus occurred more slowly. The higher frequency of frost was probably related to an anomalous increase in winter storms between 1878 (and possibly 1862) and 1891 in the southwestern United States.

The design, construction, operation, and maintenance of the Replicated Modular Estuarine Mesocosm

Perhaps the most difficult job of the ecotoxicologist is extrapolating data calculated from laboratory experiments with high precision and accuracy into the real world of highly-dynamics aquatic environments. The establishment of baseline laboratory toxicity testing data for individual compounds and ecologically important and field studies serve as a precursor to ecosystem level studies needed for ecological risk assessment. The first stage in the field portion of risk assessment is the determination of actual environmental concentrations of the contaminant being studied and matching those concentrations with laboratory toxicity tests. Risk estimates can be produced via risk quotients that would determine the probability that adverse effects may occur. In this first stage of risk assessment, environmental realism is often not achieved. This is due, in part, to the fact that single-species laboratory toxicity tests, while highly controlled, do not account for the complex interactions (Chemical, physical, and biological) that take place in the natural environment. By controlling as many variables in the laboratory as possible, an experiment can be produced in such a fashion that real effects from a compound can be determined for a particular test organism. This type of approach obviously makes comparison with real world data most difficult. Conversely, field oriented studies fall short in the interpretation of ecological risk assessment because of low statistical power, lack of adequate replicaiton, and the enormous amount of time and money needed to perform such studies. Unlike a controlled laboratory bioassay, many other stressors other than the chemical compound in question affect organisms in the environment. These stressors range from natural occurrences (such as changes in temperature, salinity, and community interactions) to other confounding anthropogenic inputs. Therefore, an improved aquatic toxicity test that will enhance environmental realism and increase the accuracy of future ecotoxicological risk assessments is needed.