Uncertainty Management in Acquisitions: What Scenario Analysis Could Offer

This study answers to How scenario analysis could help acquiring companies to reduce uncertainty in the acquisition process? It is due to the mismatch between academic world’s caveat emptor and business world’s eagerness to pursue acquisitions that motivated this study. Acquisitions are as popular as ever, thus, managing the uncertainty surrounding these transactions is relevant. This study creates a generic theoretical model with a strategy-level scope. Thus, the study does not discuss nor does it seek answers to operational issues related in both fields. This study is explorative and constructivist in nature. It discusses briefly the concepts and relatedness of risk and uncertainty and establishes a hierarchy between these two: Risks being a “sub-section” of uncertainty, although not with clear boundaries. Acquisition theory follows the process view that understands acquisitions as a process with various levels – some strategic, some operational. Scenario analysis is presented as tool for management to enrich their strategic discussion and understand their future options. The empirical data collection is done through interviewing. The results are reflected on literature on strategic management, scenario literature, and on a consultancy’s report picturing firm’s strategies in accordance with their acquisition processes. The study has an abductive approach as it tries to combine multiple views and generates discussion between literature review, interviews, the report, and second round of literature. The model suggests three propositions: First, at the strategic decision making level, when the decision whether or not to pursue an acquisition growth strategy has been made, it provides firms new data and enriches the strategic discussion. Second, when the acquisition strategy has been created, it can be applied as a tool to measure possible acquisition targets against the backdrop of the first set of scenarios. Third, due to the scenario analysis’ requirement to include people with various backgrounds and from multiple levels of the corporate hierarchy, it could help managers to avoid biases stemming from hubris.

Wind turbine indirect ice detection and operational analysis

Wind energy is one of the most promising and fast growing sector of energy production. Wind is ecologically friendly and relatively cheap energy resource available for development in practically all corners of the world (where only the wind blows). Today wind power gained broad development in the Scandinavian countries. Three important challenges concerning sustainable development, i.e. energy security, climate change and energy access make a compelling case for large-scale utilization of wind energy. In Finland, according to the climate and energy strategy, accepted in 2008, the total consumption of electricity generated by means of wind farms by 2020, should reach 6 - 7% of total consumption in the country [1]. The main challenges associated with wind energy production are harsh operational conditions that often accompany the turbine operation in the climatic conditions of the north and poor accessibility for maintenance and service. One of the major problems that require a solution is the icing of turbine structures. Icing reduces the performance of wind turbines, which in the conditions of a long cold period, can significantly affect the reliability of power supply. In order to predict and control power performance, the process of ice accretion has to be carefully tracked. There are two ways to detect icing – directly or indirectly. The first way applies to the special ice detection instruments. The second one is using indirect characteristics of turbine performance. One of such indirect methods for ice detection and power loss estimation has been proposed and used in this paper. The results were compared to the results directly gained from the ice sensors. The data used was measured in Muukko wind farm, southeast Finland during a project 'Wind power in cold climate and complex terrain'. The project was carried out in 9/2013 - 8/2015 with the partners Lappeenranta university of technology, Alstom renovables España S.L., TuuliMuukko, and TuuliSaimaa.

Emerging trends in the sea state of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas

The sea state of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas is controlled by the wind forcing and the amount of ice-free water available to generate surface waves. Clear trends in the annual duration of the open water season and in the extent of the seasonal sea ice minimum suggest that the sea state should be increasing, independent of changes in the wind forcing. Wave model hindcasts from four selected years spanning recent conditions are consistent with this expectation. In particular, larger waves are more common in years with less summer sea ice and/or a longer open water season, and peak wave periods are generally longer. The increase in wave energy may affect both the coastal zones and the remaining summer ice pack, as well as delay the autumn ice-edge advance. However, trends in the amount of wave energy impinging on the ice-edge are inconclusive, and the associated processes, especially in the autumn period of new ice formation, have yet to be well-described by in situ observations. There is an implicit trend and evidence for increasing wave energy along the coast of northern Alaska, and this coastal signal is corroborated by satellite altimeter estimates of wave energy.

Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model

Knowledge of the efficacy of an intervention for disease control on an individual farm is essential to make good decisions on preventive healthcare, but the uncertainty in outcome associated with undertaking a specific control strategy has rarely been considered in veterinary medicine. The purpose of this research was to explore the uncertainty in change in disease incidence and financial benefit that could occur on different farms, when two effective farm management interventions are undertaken. Bovine mastitis was used as an example disease and the research was conducted using data from an intervention study as prior information within an integrated Bayesian simulation model. Predictions were made of the reduction in clinical mastitis within 30 days of calving on 52 farms, attributable to the application of two herd interventions previously reported as effective; rotation of dry cow pasture and differential dry cow therapy. Results indicated that there were important degrees of uncertainty in the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis for individual farms when either intervention was undertaken; the magnitude of the 95% credible intervals for reduced clinical mastitis incidence were substantial and of clinical relevance. The large uncertainty associated with the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis attributable to the interventions resulted in important variability in possible financial outcomes for each farm. The uncertainty in outcome associated with farm control measures illustrates the difficulty facing a veterinary clinician when making an on-farm decision and highlights the importance of iterative herd health procedures (continual evaluation, reassessment and adjusted interventions) to optimise health in an individual herd.

The temporal evolution of the energy flux across scales in homogeneous turbulence

A temporal study of energy transfer across length scales is performed in 3D numerical simulations of homogeneous shear flow and isotropic turbulence. The average time taken by perturbations in the energy flux to travel between scales is measured and shown to be additive. Our data suggests that the propagation of disturbances in the energy flux is independent of the forcing and that it defines a ‘velocity’ that determines the energy flux itself. These results support that the cascade is, on average, a scale-local process where energy is continuously transmitted from one scale to the next in order of decreasing size.

A review on the recent history of wind power ramp forecasting.

Forecasting large and fast variations of wind power (the so called ramps) helps achieve the integration of large amounts of wind energy. This paper presents a survey on wind power ramp forecasting, reflecting the increasing interest on this topic observed since 2007. Three main aspects were identified from the literature: wind power ramp definition, ramp underlying meteorological causes and experi-ences in predicting ramps. In this framework, we additionally outline a number of recommendations and potential lines of research.

Roof region dependent wind potential assessment with different RANS turbulence models.

The analysis of the wind flow around buildings has a great interest from the point of view of the wind energy assessment, pollutant dispersion control, natural ventilation and pedestrians wind comfort and safety. Since LES turbulence models are computationally time consuming when applied to real geometries, RANS models are still widely used. However, RANS models are very sensitive to the chosen turbulence parametrisation and the results can vary according to the application. In this investigation, the simulation of the wind flow around an isolated building is performed using various types of RANS turbulence models in the open source code OpenFOAM, and the results are compared with benchmark experimental data. In order to confirm the numerical accuracy of the simulations, a grid dependency analysis is performed and the convergence index and rate are calculated. Hit rates are calculated for all the cases and the models that successfully pass a validation criterion are analysed at different regions of the building roof, and the most accurate RANS models for the modelling of the flow at each region are identified. The characteristics of the wind flow at each region are also analysed from the point of view of the wind energy generation, and the most adequate wind turbine model for the wind energy exploitation at each region of the building roof is chosen.

Influence of combined fundamental potentials in a nonlinear vibration energy harvester

Ambient mechanical vibrations have emerged as a viable energy source for low-power wireless sensor nodes aiming the upcoming era of the ‘Internet of Things’. Recently, purposefully induced dynamical nonlinearities have been exploited to widen the frequency spectrum of vibration energy harvesters. Here we investigate some critical inconsistencies between the theoretical formulation and applications of the bistable Duffing nonlinearity in vibration energy harvesting. A novel nonlinear vibration energy harvesting device with the capability to switch amidst individually tunable bistable-quadratic, monostable-quartic and bistable-quartic potentials has been designed and characterized. Our study highlights the fundamentally different large deflection behaviors of the theoretical bistable-quartic Duffing oscillator and the experimentally adapted bistable-quadratic systems, and underlines their implications in the respective spectral responses. The results suggest enhanced performance in the bistable-quartic potential in comparison to others, primarily due to lower potential barrier and higher restoring forces facilitating large amplitude inter-well motion at relatively lower accelerations.

Near-infrared polarimetry in the galactic center. On properties of Sagittarius A* and a dusty S-cluster object

Near-infrared polarimetry observation is a powerful tool to study the central sources at the center of the Milky Way. My aim of this thesis is to analyze the polarized emission present in the central few light years of the Galactic Center region, in particular the non-thermal polarized emission of Sagittarius~A* (Sgr~A*), the electromagnetic manifestation of the super-massive black hole, and the polarized emission of an infrared-excess source in the literature referred to as DSO/G2. This source is in orbit about Sgr~A*. In this thesis I focus onto the Galactic Center observations at $\lambda=2.2~\mu m$ ($K_\mathrm{s}$-band) in polarimetry mode during several epochs from 2004 to 2012. The near-infrared polarized observations have been carried out using the adaptive optics instrument NAOS/CONICA and Wollaston prism at the Very Large Telescope of ESO (European Southern Observatory). Linear polarization at 2.2 $\mu m$, its flux statistics and time variation, can be used to constrain the physical conditions of the accretion process onto the central super-massive black hole. I present a statistical analysis of polarized $K_\mathrm{s}$-band emission from Sgr~A* and investigate the most comprehensive sample of near-infrared polarimetric light curves of this source up to now. I find several polarized flux excursions during the years and obtain an exponent of about 4 for the power-law fitted to polarized flux density distribution of fluxes above 5~mJy. Therefore, this distribution is closely linked to the single state power-law distribution of the total $K_\mathrm{s}$-band flux densities reported earlier by us. I find polarization degrees of the order of 20\%$\pm$10\% and a preferred polarization angle of $13^o\pm15^o$. Based on simulations of polarimetric measurements given the observed flux density and its uncertainty in orthogonal polarimetry channels, I find that the uncertainties of polarization parameters under a total flux density of $\sim 2\,{\mathrm{mJy}}$ are probably dominated by observational uncertainties. At higher flux densities there are intrinsic variations of polarization degree and angle within rather well constrained ranges. Since the emission is most likely due to optically thin synchrotron radiation, the obtained preferred polarization angle is very likely reflecting the intrinsic orientation of the Sgr~A* system i.e. an accretion disk or jet/wind scenario coupled to the super-massive black hole. Our polarization statistics show that Sgr~A* must be a stable system, both in terms of geometry, and the accretion process. I also investigate an infrared-excess source called G2 or Dusty S-cluster Object (DSO) moving on a highly eccentric orbit around the Galaxy's central black hole, Sgr~A*. I use for the first time the near-infrared polarimetric imaging data to determine the nature and the properties of DSO and obtain an improved $K_\mathrm{s}$-band identification of this source in median polarimetry images of different observing years. The source starts to deviate from the stellar confusion in 2008 data and it does not show a flux density variability based on our data set. Furthermore, I measure the polarization degree and angle of this source and conclude based on the simulations on polarization parameters that it is an intrinsically polarized source with a varying polarization angle as it approaches Sgr~A* position. I use the interpretation of the DSO polarimetry measurements to assess its possible properties.

Sensible use of primary energy in organic greenhouse production.

This document addresses the direct and indirect use of energy in European organic greenhouse horticulture (OGH) with the aim of reviewing available means for making it more environmental friendly and identifying knowledge gaps that should be addressed to attain this aim. The first observation is that there is no common regulation for energy use in OGH, which is not unexpected, since the need for climatisation is not uniformly distributed in the EU (and outside). Accordingly, the EU directive on organic agriculture does not set limitations on the use of energy, but rather promotes the responsible use of energy and of natural resources. The restrictions and rules of most private standards are slightly more stringent. Some standards have specific restrictions on the amount and sources of energy and/or on the seasonal use of energy for heating. Some standards also address processes that may affect (in)direct energy use, such as cultivation methods, mulching, lighting and growing media or substrates. However, most private standards have no or little restrictions or regulations on energy use. Accordingly, it should not surprise that very little quantitative information is available about energy use in OGH. In the present document we have filled the gaps with data with estimates drawn on energy use in conventional greenhouses. With respect to ongoing research, whereas many of the present research results about energy use and saving in conventional greenhouses are relevant (and also applied) in OGH, little research is devoted to address the energy use that is peculiar to OGH, particularly energy use for humidity control. In short, there are still a lot of knowledge gaps to improve quality and to lower energy use in organic greenhouses. The purpose of this document is a summary of present relevant knowledge about energy use and energy saving and of the perspective for improvement. In particular, the goal is to make an overview on the methods and technologies which can be used to reduce the energy use in OGH. We start from the assumption that methods and technologies that are used for reducing direct and indirect energy in conventional greenhouses can also be applied in organic greenhouses. Research on reducing energy use in conventional greenhouses is also more widely available because the area of conventional greenhouse horticulture is much larger than the area of OGH. When implementing these methods and techniques we should take into account the specific characteristics of organic agriculture like soil-based cultivation, use of organic fertilizers and the limited use of crop protection products. This document is organised as follows: first we report the results of a survey about energy use and relevant standards in the countries participating to the COST action (chapter 1); then we review the energy use for climatisation: heating (chapter 2) and humidity (chapter 3). In chapter 4 we review the available design and management means that would either reduce energy use and/or increase energy use efficiency by increasing productivity of OGH. In chapter 5 we present a short summary of existing information on indirect energy use, that is the energy required to manufacture production means (greenhouse structure and cover, fertilisers, equipment etc.) and for crop protection, particularly steaming, and briefly discuss possible savings. Finally (chapter 6) we review briefly the potential for application of renewable energy sources in OGH.

HVDC Power Transmission Simulation for Offshore Wind System with Three-Level Converter

An integrated mathematical model for the simulation of an offshore wind system performance is presented in this paper. The mathematical model considers an offshore variable-speed turbine in deep water equipped with a permanent magnet synchronous generator using multiple point full-power clamped three-level converter, converting the energy of a variable frequency source in injected energy into the electric network with constant frequency, through a HVDC transmission submarine cable. The mathematical model for the drive train is a concentrate two mass model which incorporates the dynamic for the blades of the wind turbine, tower and generator due to the need to emulate the effects of the wind and the floating motion. Controller strategy considered is a proportional integral one. Also, pulse width modulation using space vector modulation supplemented with sliding mode is used for trigger the transistors of the converter. Finally, a case study is presented to access the system performance.

Does Final Energy Demand in Portugal Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis

In this paper, we measure the degree of fractional integration in final energy demand in Portugal using an ARFIMA model with and without adjustments for seasonality. We consider aggregate energy demand as well as final demand for petroleum, electricity, coal, and natural gas. Our findings suggest the presence of long memory in all of the components of energy demand. All fractional-difference parameters are positive and lower than 0.5 indicating that the series are stationary, although with mean reversion patterns slower than in the typical short-run processes. These results have important implications for the design of energy policies. As a result of the long-memory in final energy demand, the effects of temporary policy shocks will tend to disappear slowly. This means that even transitory shocks have long lasting effects. Given the temporary nature of these effects, however, permanent effects on final energy demand require permanent policies. This is unlike what would be suggested by the more standard, but much more limited, unit root approach, which would incorrectly indicate that even transitory policies would have permanent effects

Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

The role of natural ventilation in building sustainable subdivisions in south east Queensland

The objective of the consultative phase is to examine the role that natural ventilation has and can play in the subdivision planning process in SEQ. The Centre for Subtropical Design at QUT coordinated the consultative phase and has conducted a workshop, and interviews, with stakeholders including developers, land development consultants, land surveyors, urban designers and regulators, to identify current understanding of the impact of urban subdivision on natural ventilation, and the role of natural ventilation in achieving energy efficiency for dwellings. This report details the findings.

Low-fat oxidation may be a factor in obesity among men with schizophrenia

Objective: Obesity associated with atypical antipsychotic medications is an important clinical issue for people with schizophrenia. The purpose of this project was to determine whether there were any differences in resting energy expenditure (REE) and respiratory quotient (RQ) between men with schizophrenia and controls. Method: Thirty-one men with schizophrenia were individually matched for age and relative body weight with healthy, sedentary controls. Deuterium dilution was used to determine total body water and subsequently fat-free mass (FFM). Indirect calorimetry using a Deltatrac metabolic cart was used to determine REE and RQ. Results: When corrected for FFM, there was no significant difference in REE between the groups. However, fasting RQ was significantly higher in the men with schizophrenia than the controls. Conclusion: Men with schizophrenia oxidised proportionally less fat and more carbohydrate under resting conditions than healthy controls. These differences in substrate utilisation at rest may be an important consideration in obesity in this clinical group.