An appraisal of employment problems and policies at the micro-economic level

This study has concentrated on the development of an impact simulation model for use at the sub-national level. The necessity for the development of this model was demonstrated by the growth of local economic initiatives during the 1970's, and the lack of monitoring and evaluation exercise to assess their success and cost-effectiveness. The first stage of research involved the confirmation that the potential for micro-economic and spatial initiatives existed. This was done by identifying the existence of involuntary structural unemployment. The second stage examined the range of employment policy options from the macroeconomic, micro-economic and spatial perspectives, and focused on the need for evaluation of those policies. The need for spatial impact evaluation exercise in respect of other exogenous shocks, and structural changes was also recognised. The final stage involved the investigation of current techniques of evaluation and their adaptation for the purpose in hand. This led to a recognition of a gap in the armoury of techniques. The employment-dependency model has been developed to fill that gap, providing a low-budget model, capable of implementation at the small area level and generating a vast array of industrially disaggregate data, in terms of employment, employment-income, profits, value-added and gross income, related to levels of United Kingdom final demand. Thus providing scope for a variety of impact simulation exercises.

Risk and structural instability in US house prices

This paper employs a Component GARCH in Mean model to show that house prices across a number of major US cities between 1987 and 2009 have displayed asset market properties in terms of both risk-return relationships and asymmetric adjustment to shocks. In addition, tests for structural breaks in the mean and variance indicate structural instability across the data range. Multiple breaks are identified across all cities, particularly for the early 1990s and during the post-2007 financial crisis as housing has become an increasingly risky asset. Estimating the models over the individual sub-samples suggests that over the last 20 years the financial sector has increasingly failed to account for the levels of risk associated with real estate markets. This result has possible implications for the way in which financial institutions should be regulated in the future.

Appropriate wage rate and estimate of labour availability for a public works based safety net in Cambodia

Employment generating public works (EGPW) are an important part of Royal Government of Cambodia’s (RGC’s) strategy being developed through Council for Agriculture and Rural Development (CARD) to develop a comprehensive social safety net (SSN) to provide a measure of protection from shocks for the poor and vulnerable and to contribute to poverty alleviation through short-term unskilled employment.

Inherited labour hoarding, insiders and employment growth:panel data results : Poland, 1996-2002

Using panel data pertaining to large Polish (non-financial) firms this paper examines the determinants of employment change during the period 1996-2002. Paying particular attention to the asymmetry hypothesis we investigate the impact of own wages, outside wages, output growth, regional characteristics and sectoral affiliation on the evolution of employment. In keeping with the 'right to manage' model we find that employment dynamics are not affected negatively by alternative wages. Furthermore, in contrast to the early transition period, we find evidence that employment levels respond to positive sales growth (in all but state firms). The early literature, (e.g. Kollo, 1998) found that labour hoarding lowered employment elasticities in the presence of positive demand shocks. Our findings suggest that inherited labour hoarding may no longer be a factor. We argue that the present pattern of employment adjustment is better explained by the role of insiders. This tentative conclusion is hinged on the contrasting behaviour of state and privatised companies and the similar behaviour of privatised and new private companies. We conclude that lower responsiveness of employment to both positive and negative changes in revenue in state firms is consistent with the proposition that rent sharing by insiders is stronger in the state sector.

Wage and employment decisions of enterprises in downsized industries:deliverable No. 11 to 13

The 5th framework programme research project ACCESSLAB researches the capability of candidate countries’ regions to deal with asymmetric shocks. Its goal is to provide analysts and policy makers with research results relevant to the process of enlargement. The project takes a broad and comparative view of labour market adjustments to address these issues. It examines the topic from both a macroeconomic and microeconomic viewpoint. It considers different adjustment mechanisms in depth and compares results with the European Union. It draws on a) the experiences in transition countries in the last decade, b) the experience of German integration and c) the experiences of border regions to gain insights on the likely regional labour market effects of accession of the candidate countries.

Postcolonial transitions in Africa:Decolonization in West Africa and present day South Africa

Black Economic Empowerment is a highly debated issue in contemporary South Africa. Yet few South Africans realize that they are following a postcolonial trajectory already experienced by other countries. This paper presents a case study of British firms during decolonization in Ghana and Nigeria in the 1950s and 1960s, which saw a parallel development in business and society to that which occurred in South Africa in the 1990s and 2000s. Despite fundamental differences between these states, all have had to empower a majority of black citizens who had previously suffered discrimination on the basis of race. The paper employs concepts from social capital theory to show that the process of postcolonial transition in African economies has been more politically and socially disruptive than empowerment in Western countries. Historical research contributes to our understanding of the nature of institutional shocks in emerging economies.

Regional responses to recession:the role of the West Midlands regional taskforce

Bailey D. and Berkeley N. Regional responses to recession: the role of the West Midlands Regional Taskforce, Regional Studies. Regional taskforces were set up across the English regions in late 2008 in response to the most severe recession since the Second World War. This paper examines the role of one such body, the West Midlands Regional Taskforce, as an example of regional response to recession, and offers potential lessons for the future in dealing with such situations. In so doing it reflects on the contested concept of regional 'resilience' and its relevance for policy actions at the regional level. Understanding how the region responded in this way could help in maintaining a 'permanent capacity' to deal with shocks, especially in the context of the abolition of regional development agencies (RDAs) in England from 2012 and their replacement with local enterprise partnerships (LEPs). © 2014 © 2014 The Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis.

Threat-evoked anxiety disrupts spatial working memory performance:an attentional account

It is proposed that threat-evoked anxiety and spatial Working Memory (WM) rely on a common visuospatial attention mechanism. A prediction of this hypothesis is that spatial but not verbal WM should be disrupted in conditions of threat anxiety. Participants performed verbal and spatial n-back WM tasks in the presence or absence of threat of shock (shocks were not delivered). The presence of anxiety was assessed via heart rate recordings and self-report. Both measures clearly distinguished between WM blocks associated with threat of shock (Threat) and blocks, in which threat was absent (Safety). Performance on the spatial WM task was impaired in Threat relative to Safety. Furthermore, the more anxiety participants reported and the higher their heart rate in Threat compared to Safety, the more impaired was their spatial WM performance. This effect was not observed for verbal WM. The results indicate selective disruption of spatial WM performance by threat-evoked anxiety, interpreted in terms of more overlap in visuospatial attention between anxiety and spatial WM vs. anxiety and verbal WM.

Multivariate FIAPARCH modelling of financial markets with dynamic correlations in times of crisis

This paper applies the vector AR-DCC-FIAPARCH model to eight national stock market indices' daily returns from 1988 to 2010, taking into account the structural breaks of each time series linked to the Asian and the recent Global financial crisis. We find significant cross effects, as well as long range volatility dependence, asymmetric volatility response to positive and negative shocks, and the power of returns that best fits the volatility pattern. One of the main findings of the model analysis is the higher dynamic correlations of the stock markets after a crisis event, which means increased contagion effects between the markets. The fact that during the crisis the conditional correlations remain on a high level indicates a continuous herding behaviour during these periods of increased market volatility. Finally, during the recent Global financial crisis the correlations remain on a much higher level than during the Asian financial crisis.

Nonlinear Waves: An Introduction

This book deals with equations of mathematical physics as the different modifications of the KdV equation, the Camassa-Holm type equations, several modifications of Burger's equation, the Hunter-Saxton equation, conservation laws equations and others. The equations originate from physics but are proposed here for their investigation via purely mathematical methods in the frames of university courses. More precisely, we propose classification theorems for the traveling wave solutions for a sufficiently large class of third order nonlinear PDE when the corresponding profiles develop different kind of singularities (cusps, peaks), existence and uniqueness results, etc. The orbital stability of the periodic solutions of traveling type for mKdV equations are also studied. Of great interest too is the interaction of peakon type solutions of the Camassa-Holm equation and the solvability of the classical and generalized Cauchy problem for the Hunter-Saxton equation. The Riemann problem for special systems of conservation laws and the corresponding -shocks are also considered. As it concerns numerical methods we apply the CNN approach. The book is addressed to a broader audience including graduate students, Ph.D. students, mathematicians, physicist, engineers and specialists in the domain of PDE.

Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic

Using a panel of 21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systematically associated with more synchronized business cycles. We also find evidence that reduced fiscal deficits increase business cycle synchronization. The Maastricht "convergence criteria," used to determine eligibility for EMU, encouraged fiscal convergence and deficit reduction. They may thus have indirectly moved Europe closer to an optimum currency area, by reducing countries’ abilities to create idiosyncratic fiscal shocks. Our empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.

A fiskális divergencia és a konjunktúraciklusok együttmozgása - a felelőtlen fiskális politika az aszimmetrikus sokkok forrása (Fiscal divergence and business cycle synchronization: irresponsibility is idiosyncratic)

A világ 115 országának - köztük 21 OECD-tagország - 40 évnyi adatait vizsgálva, arra a következtetésre jutottunk, hogy a hasonló állami költségvetési pozíciójú országok konjunktúraciklusai között szorosabb együttmozgás mutatható ki. Azaz, a fiskális konvergenciát (amelyet a költségvetési egyenleg GDP-hez viszonyt arányának konvergenciájaként definiáltunk) összehangoltabb konjunktúraciklusokkal lehet összefüggésbe hozni. Kutatásaink során arra is találtunk bizonyítékot, hogy a kisebb mértékű költségvetési deficitek növelik a konjunktúraciklusok együttmozgását. A maastrichti konvergenciakritériumok - amelyek az európai monetáris unió követelményeinek való megfelelést hivatottak meghatározni - a fiskális konvergenciát és a költségvetési deficit csökkentését ösztönözték, s ezzel közvetett módon hozzásegítették Európát egy optimális valutaövezet létrehozásához azáltal, hogy csökkent az egyes országok lehetősége a felelőtlen fiskális politika által gerjesztett sokkhatások létrehozására. Az általunk feltárt empirikus eredmények gazdasági és statisztikai szempontból is szignifikánsak és robusztusak. _____ Using panels of 115 countries of world – including 21 OECD countries – and 40 years of annual data, the authors find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. Thus fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP) is systemati-cally associated with more strongly synchronized business cycles. Evidence is also found that reduced fiscal deficits increase business-cycle synchronization. The Maastricht "con-vergence criteria", used to determine eligibility for EMU, encouraged fiscal convergence and deficit reduction. So they may, indirectly, have moved Europe closer to an optimum currency area, by reducing countries abilities to create idiosyncratic fiscal shocks. The empirical results of the study are economically and statistically significant, and robust.

Az átalakuló globális pénzügyi szabályozórendszer kérdései = Dilemmas of the changing global financial regulation system

Erősődő igény van a jelenlegi sokoldalú nemzetközi felügyeleti rendszer reformjára úgy, hogy az a nemzeti gazdaságpolitikák nemzetközi hatásait is figyelembe vegye. Ehhez át kell reformálni a jelenlegi globális pénzügyi szabályozási rendszert, de ki kell alakítani a nemzeti gazdaságpolitikák egymásra hatásának koordinációját is. Ide tartozik a globális külső sokkok csillapítására szolgáló anti-ciklikus finanszírozás, a nemzetközi adózási együttműködés fokozása, a nemzetközi adósságfinanszírozás tökéletesítése, vagy a globális fizetésieszköz-tartalékok és a fizetési rendszer viszonya. Ez utóbbi területen az SDR kiterjedtebb használatának feltételeit kell kimunkálni. A jelenlegi globális intézmények – WTO, Nemzetközi Valutaalap, Világbank – alapos megújítása elkerülhetetlen. A globális gazdasági koordináció intézményi kereteinek kidolgozása viszont még várat magára. A G20-ak csoportja – bár fontos reformokat kezdeményezett –, nem tekinthető a világgazdasági egyensúlytalanságok megoldása letéteményesének. A cél csak olyan globális intézményi struktúra lehet, amely egyaránt képes a világ nagy számú gazdaságai közötti koordinációs feladatok megoldására, s a döntések végrehajtásának kikényszerítésére. / === / The present multilateral international surveillance system needs to be reformed with an eye on international repercussions of national economic policies. The present global financial architecture, the coordination of interplays of national economic policies must be modified. An anti-cyclical financing capable of absorbing global external shocks, strengthening of international tax cooperation, improving international debt financing or the relations between global financial reserves and the global payment system might be part and parcel of this process. A more extended use of SDR could be worked out. Reforms of the present global institutions – the WTO, the IMF, the World Bank – cannot be avoided any further. Institutional frameworks of global economic coordination mechanism have still not been worked out. The Group of 20 (G-20) cannot be seen as the sole player in fighting world economic disequlibria. A global institutional system is envisaged, which is able to implement economic coordination among national economic units and to enforce the implementation of decisions taken. At present there is no global institution dealing with coherence and consistency of global issues. Reforming present institutions and/or designing new ones are possible options. The basis for such an international coordination must involve general acceptance of principles, transparent implementation, and enforcement of decisions taken.

Bródy András gazdaságiciklus-elmélete (András Bródy's theory of economic cycles)

Bródy András kutatásainak egyik központi témaköre a gazdasági mozgás vizsgálata volt. Írásunkban Bródy elméletét kívánjuk röviden áttekinteni és összefoglalni. A termelés sokszektoros leírása egyben árelméletét (értékelméletét, méréselméletét) is keretbe foglalja. Ebben a keretben a gazdasági mozgás összetett ingadozása technológiai alapon elemezhető. Bródy megközelítésében a gazdasági ciklust nem külső megrázkódások magyarázzák, hanem a termelési rendszer belső arányai és kapcsolatai. A termelési struktúrát az árak és a volumenek egyformán alakítják, ezek között nincsen kitüntetett vagy domináns tényező. Az árak és a volumenek a köztük lévő duális kapcsolatban alakulnak ki. A gazdaság mozgásegyenleteit technológiai mérlegösszefüggések, valamint a piaci csere útján a gazdaságban újraelosztásra (újratermelésre) kerülő termékek felhasználása és az eszközlekötés változása írja le. Az így meghatározott mozgásegyenletek a gazdaság természetes mozgását ciklusmozgás alakjában írják le. A technológia vagy az értékviszonyok megváltozása (sokkok) a gazdaság ciklikus mozgásának megváltozásában tükröződik. Bródy munkáiban technológiai megalapozást nyer a történelemből ismert számos jellegzetes gazdasági ciklus. / === / Economic motion and dynamics are at the heart of Andras Brody's creative output. This paper attempts a bird's-eye view of his theory of economic cycles. Brody's multi-sector modelling of production has provided a framework for price theory (the theory of value and measurement). His theory of economic motion with cyclical characteristics is technology driven. It argues that the complex web of economic cycles is determined by the proportions and interrelationships of the system of production, not by arbitrary external shocks. The structure's behaviour are driven by prices and proportions, with the duality of prices and proportions as a dominant feature. These are features in common with the Leontief models, which Brody extended to economic cycles. Brody saw economic cycles as natural motions of economic systems with accumulated assets (time lags) and market exchange of goods (demand and supply adjustment). Changes in technology or valuations (shocks) are reflected in changing patterns of motion. His model of the economy is a fine instrument that enabled him to show how the technological parameters of its system determine the frequency and other characteristics of various economic cycles identified in economic history.

Post Crisis Lessons for Open Economies: Are They All New?

This paper will argue that the American economy could and will absorb the recent shocks, and that in the longer run (within a matter of years), it will somehow convert the revealed weaknesses to its advantage. America has a long record of learning from its excesses to improve the working of its particular brand of capitalism, dating back to the imposition of antitrust controls on the robber barons in the late 1800s and the enhancement of investor protection after the 1929 crash. The American economy has experienced market imperfections of all kinds but it almost always has found, true, not perfect, but fairly reliable regulatory answers and has managed to adapt to change, (e. g. Dodd-Frank Act on financial stability). The U.S. has many times pioneered in the elaboration of both theoretical and policy oriented solutions for conflicts between markets and government to increase economic welfare (Bernanke, 2008, p. 425). There is no single reason why it should not turn the latest financial calamities to its advantage. At the same time, to regain confidence in capitalism as a global system, global efforts are indispensable. To identify some of the global economic conflicts that have a lot to do with U.S. markets in particular, we seek answers to global systemic questions.