How to parametrize urban-canopy drag to reproduce wind-direction effects within the canopy

The mean wind direction within an urban canopy changes with height when the incoming flow is not orthogonal to obstacle faces. This wind-turning effect is induced by complex processes and its modelling in urban-canopy (UC) parametrizations is difficult. Here we focus on the analysis of the spatially-averaged flow properties over an aligned array of cubes and their variation with incoming wind direction. For this purpose, Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulations previously compared, for a reduced number of incident wind directions, against direct numerical simulation results are used. The drag formulation of a UCparametrization ismodified and different drag coefficients are tested in order to reproduce the wind-turning effect within the canopy for oblique wind directions. The simulations carried out for a UC parametrization in one-dimensional mode indicate that a height-dependent drag coefficient is needed to capture this effect.

The effect of a new drag-law parameterization on ice shelf water plume dynamics

A drag law accounting for Ekman rotation adjacent to a flat, horizontal bou ndary is proposed for use in a plume model that is written in terms of the depth-mean velocity. The drag l aw contains a variable turning angle between the mean velocity and the drag imposed by the turbulent bound ary layer. The effect of the variable turning angle in the drag law is studied for a plume of ice shelf wat er (ISW) ascending and turning beneath an Antarctic ice shelf with draft decreasing away from the groundi ng line. As the ISW plume ascends the sloping ice shelf–ocean boundary, it can melt the ice shelf, wh ich alters the buoyancy forcing driving the plume motion. Under these conditions, the typical turning ang le is of order 10° over most of the plume area for a range of drag coefficients (the minus sign arises for th e Southern Hemisphere). The rotation of the drag with respect to the mean velocity is found to be signifi cant if the drag coefficient exceeds 0.003; in this case the plume body propagates farther along and across the b ase of the ice shelf than a plume with the standard quadratic drag law with no turning angle.

Healing the wounds of war: memories of violence and the making of history in Zimbabwe's most recent past.

How does a society less than two decades after a liberation war which involved large sections of the population come to terms with the memories of violence and war — a war in which there was no clear distinction between insurgent and counter‐insurgent, liberator and oppressor and in which the majority of the casualties can be found among the rural civilian population? This was a predicament not exclusive to Zimbabwe, but one which also applies to Mozambique, South Africa and, more recently, to Rwanda. Since its independence Zimbabwe has been a prime example of successful reconciliation. Ranger has argued that spiritual healing has contributed importantly to coming to terms with the trauma of war through turning violence into history. Here it will be argued that an analysis of the intersections between memories of violence, healing, and history reveals a twofold process. Social healing is made possible by a shift from conviction and compensation to revealing without convicting. At the same time healing provides an arena for communities in which competing and contesting memories of violence are renegotiated. Through these processes sense is being made of the past; history is being made.

'Penetrating' foreign lands: contestations over African landscape. A case study from Eastern Zimbabwe

While it was happening, European expansion was often legitimised by evoking frontier images: pioneers setting off from the metropolis, penetrating wilderness in order to open access to resources, like minerals, living-space, and fertile lands. Central to the ideology of the frontier is the notion of 'no-man's land'. These 'pioneers', however, often had to face local inhabitants and their interpretations and uses of this land. Thus it will be argued that contestations over landscape were at the same time battles over the legitimation of European expansion, as well as over local perceptions of this process. Ideologically, contestations by Europeans and Africans become apparent in the sexualisation of landscape. This paper is based on the case study of a Valley in eastern Zimbabwe on the border with Mozambique, and more specifically of two tea estates which were established in the rainforest. Unusually late for the region, European influence in this remote area only began to become significant in the 1950s which were an important turning point regarding land and landscape in the area. These years of great change will be analysed in order to map out different strands of interest by the main parties involved. It will be demonstrated that their readings of landscape translated into contestations over land. A recent example of such a conflict will be given.

Measuring European property investment performance: comparing different approaches

Purpose – Price indices for commercial real estate markets are difficult to construct because assets are heterogeneous, they are spatially dispersed and they are infrequently traded. Appraisal-based indices are one response to these problems, but may understate volatility or fail to capture turning points in a timely manner. This paper estimates “transaction linked indices” for major European markets to see whether these offer a different perspective on market performance. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The assessed value method is used to construct the indices. This has been recently applied to commercial real estate datasets in the USA and UK. The underlying data comprise appraisals and sale prices for assets monitored by Investment Property Databank (IPD). The indices are compared to appraisal-based series for the countries concerned for Q4 2001 to Q4 2012. Findings – Transaction linked indices show stronger growth and sharper declines over the course of the cycle, but they do not notably lead their appraisal-based counterparts. They are typically two to four times more volatile. Research limitations/implications – Only country-level indicators can be constructed in many cases owing to low trading volumes in the period studied, and this same issue prevented sample selection bias from being analysed in depth. Originality/value – Discussion of the utility of transaction-based price indicators is extended to European commercial real estate markets. The indicators offer alternative estimates of real estate market volatility that may be useful in asset allocation and risk modelling, including in a regulatory context.

Challenges of operational river forecasting

Skillful and timely streamflow forecasts are critically important to water managers and emergency protection services. To provide these forecasts, hydrologists must predict the behavior of complex coupled human–natural systems using incomplete and uncertain information and imperfect models. Moreover, operational predictions often integrate anecdotal information and unmodeled factors. Forecasting agencies face four key challenges: 1) making the most of available data, 2) making accurate predictions using models, 3) turning hydrometeorological forecasts into effective warnings, and 4) administering an operational service. Each challenge presents a variety of research opportunities, including the development of automated quality-control algorithms for the myriad of data used in operational streamflow forecasts, data assimilation, and ensemble forecasting techniques that allow for forecaster input, methods for using human-generated weather forecasts quantitatively, and quantification of human interference in the hydrologic cycle. Furthermore, much can be done to improve the communication of probabilistic forecasts and to design a forecasting paradigm that effectively combines increasingly sophisticated forecasting technology with subjective forecaster expertise. These areas are described in detail to share a real-world perspective and focus for ongoing research endeavors.

IMF control of cusp proton emission intensity and dayside convection: implications for component and anti-parallel reconnection

We study a brightening of the Lyman-alpha emission in the cusp which occurred in response to a short-lived southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) during a period of strongly enhanced solar wind plasma concentration. The cusp proton emission is detected using the SI-12 channel of the FUV imager on the IMAGE spacecraft. Analysis of the IMF observations recorded by the ACE and Wind spacecraft reveals that the assumption of a constant propagation lag from the upstream spacecraft to the Earth is not adequate for these high time-resolution studies. The variations of the southward IMF component observed by ACE and Wind allow for the calculation of the ACE-to-Earth lag as a function of time. Application of the derived propagation delays reveals that the intensity of the cusp emission varied systematically with the IMF clock angle, the relationship being particularly striking when the intensity is normalised to allow for the variation in the upstream solar wind proton concentration. The latitude of the cusp migrated equatorward while the lagged IMF pointed southward, confirming the lag calculation and indicating ongoing magnetopause reconnection. Dayside convection, as monitored by the SuperDARN network of radars, responded rapidly to the IMF changes but lagged behind the cusp proton emission response: this is shown to be as predicted by the model of flow excitation by Cowley and Lockwood (1992). We use the numerical cusp ion precipitation model of Lockwood and Davis (1996), along with modelled Lyman-_ emission efficiency and the SI-12 instrument response, to investigate the effect of the sheath field clock angle on the acceleration of ions on crossing the dayside magnetopause. This modelling reveals that the emission commences on each reconnected field line 2–2.5min after it is opened and peaks 3–5 min after it is opened. We discuss how comparison of the Lyman-alpha intensities with oxygen emissions observed simultaneously by the SI-13 channel of the FUV instrument offers an opportunity to test whether or not the clock angle dependence is consistent with the “component” or the “anti-parallel” reconnection hypothesis.

Coordinated Cluster and ground-based instrument observations of transient changes in the magnetopause boundary layer during an interval of predominantly northward IMF: relation to reconnection pulses and FTE signatures

We study a series of transient entries into the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) of all four Cluster spacecraft during an outbound pass through the mid-afternoon magnetopause ([X(GSM), Y(GSM), Z(GSM)] approximate to [2, 7, 9] R(E)). The events take place during an interval of northward IMF, as seen in the data from the ACE satellite and lagged by a propagation delay of 75 min that is well-defined by two separate studies: (1) the magnetospheric variations prior to the northward turning (Lockwood et al., 2001, this issue) and (2) the field clock angle seen by Cluster after it had emerged into the magnetosheath (Opgenoorth et al., 2001, this issue). With an additional lag of 16.5 min, the transient LLBL events cor-relate well with swings of the IMF clock angle (in GSM) to near 90degrees. Most of this additional lag is explained by ground-based observations, which reveal signatures of transient reconnection in the pre-noon sector that then take 10-15 min to propagate eastward to 15 MLT, where they are observed by Cluster. The eastward phase speed of these signatures agrees very well with the motion deduced by the cross-correlation of the signatures seen on the four Cluster spacecraft. The evidence that these events are reconnection pulses includes: transient erosion of the noon 630 nm (cusp/cleft) aurora to lower latitudes; transient and travelling enhancements of the flow into the polar cap, imaged by the AMIE technique; and poleward-moving events moving into the polar cap, seen by the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR). A pass of the DMSP-F15 satellite reveals that the open field lines near noon have been opened for some time: the more recently opened field lines were found closer to dusk where the flow transient and the poleward-moving event intersected the satellite pass. The events at Cluster have ion and electron characteristics predicted and observed by Lockwood and Hapgood (1998) for a Flux Transfer Event (FTE), with allowance for magnetospheric ion reflection at Alfvenic disturbances in the magnetopause reconnection layer. Like FTEs, the events are about 1 R(E) in their direction of motion and show a rise in the magnetic field strength, but unlike FTEs, in general, they show no pressure excess in their core and hence, no characteristic bipolar signature in the boundary-normal component. However, most of the events were observed when the magnetic field was southward, i.e. on the edge of the interior magnetic cusp, or when the field was parallel to the magnetic equatorial plane. Only when the satellite begins to emerge from the exterior boundary (when the field was northward), do the events start to show a pressure excess in their core and the consequent bipolar signature. We identify the events as the first observations of FTEs at middle altitudes.

Solar wind control of magnetospheric energy content: substorm quenching and multiple onsets

In this paper we report coordinated multispacecraft and ground-based observations of a double substorm onset close to Scandinavia on November 17, 1996. The Wind and the Geotail spacecraft, which were located in the solar wind and the subsolar magnetosheath, respectively, recorded two periods of southward directed interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). These periods were separated by a short northward IMF excursion associated with a solar wind pressure pulse, which compressed the magnetosphere to such a degree that Geotail for a short period was located outside the bow shock. The first period of southward IMF initiated a substorm growth. phase, which was clearly detected by an array of ground-based instrumentation and by Interball in the northern tail lobe. A first substorm onset occurred in close relation to the solar wind pressure pulse impinging on the magnetopause and almost simultaneously with the northward turning of the IMF. However, this substorm did not fully develop. In clear association with the expansion of the magnetosphere at the end of the pressure pulse, the auroral expansion was stopped, and the northern sky cleared. We will present evidence that the change in the solar wind dynamic pressure actively quenched the energy available for any further substorm expansion. Directly after this period, the magnetometer network detected signatures of a renewed substorm growth phase, which was initiated by the second southward turning of the IMF and which finally lead to a second, and this time complete, substorm intensification. We have used our multipoint observations in order to understand the solar wind control of the substorm onset and substorm quenching. The relative timings between the observations on the various satellites and on the ground were used to infer a possible causal relationship between the solar wind pressure variations and consequent substorm development. Furthermore, using a relatively simple algorithm to model the tail lobe field and the total tail flux, we show that there indeed exists a close relationship between the relaxation of a solar wind pressure pulse, the reduction of the tail lobe field, and the quenching of the initial substorm.

ESR and EISCAT observations of the response of the cusp and cleft to IMF orientation changes

We report observations of the cusp/cleft ionosphere made on December 16th 1998 by the EISCAT (European incoherent scatter) VHF radar at Tromso and the EISCAT Svalbard radar (ESR). We compare them with observations of the dayside auroral luminosity, as seen by meridian scanning photometers at Ny Alesund and of HF radar backscatter, as observed by the CUTLASS radar. We study the response to an interval of about one hour when the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), monitored by the WIND and ACE spacecraft, was southward. The cusp/cleft aurora is shown to correspond to a spatially extended region of elevated electron temperatures in the VHF radar data. Initial conditions were characterised by a northward-directed IMF and cusp/cleft aurora poleward of the ESR. A strong southward turning then occurred, causing an equatorward motion of the cusp/cleft aurora. Within the equatorward expanding, southward-IMF cusp/cleft, the ESR observed structured and elevated plasma densities and ion and electron temperatures. Cleft ion fountain upflows were seen in association with elevated ion temperatures and rapid eastward convection, consistent with the magnetic curvature force on newly opened held lines for the observed negative IMF B-y. Subsequently, the ESR beam remained immediately poleward of the main cusp/cleft and a sequence of poleward-moving auroral transients passed over it. After the last of these, the ESR was in the polar cap and the radar observations were characterised by extremely low ionospheric densities and downward field-aligned flows. The IMF then turned northward again and the auroral oval contracted such that the ESR moved back into the cusp/cleft region. For the poleward-retreating northward-IMF cusp/cleft, the convection flows were slower, upflows were weaker and the electron density and temperature enhancements were less structured. Following the northward turning, the bands of high electron temperature and cusp/cleft aurora bifurcated, consistent with both subsolar and lobe reconnection taking place simultaneously. The present paper describes the large-scale behaviour of the ionosphere during this interval, as observed by a powerful combination of instruments. Two companion papers, by Lockwood et al. (2000) and Thorolfsson et al. (2000), both in this issue, describe the detailed behaviour of the poleward-moving transients observed during the interval of southward B-z, and explain their morphology in the context of previous theoretical work.

Reconfiguration and closure of lobe flux by reconnection during northward IMF: possible evidence for signatures in cusp/cleft auroral emissions

Observations are presented of the response of the dayside cusp/cleft aurora to changes in both the clock and elevation angles of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) vector, as monitored by the WIND spacecraft. The auroral observations are made in 630 nm light at the winter solstice near magnetic noon, using an all-sky camera and a meridian-scanning photometer on the island of Spitsbergen. The dominant change was the response to a northward turning of the IMF which caused a poleward retreat of the dayside aurora. A second, higher-latitude band of aurora was seen to form following the northward turning, which is interpreted as the effect of lobe reconnection which reconfigures open flux. We suggest that this was made possible in the winter hemisphere, despite the effect of the Earth's dipole tilt, by a relatively large negative X component of the IMF. A series of five events then formed in the poleward band and these propagated in a southwestward direction and faded at the equatorward edge of the lower-latitude band as it migrated poleward. It is shown that the auroral observations are consistent with overdraped lobe flux being generated by lobe reconnection in the winter hemisphere and subsequently being re-closed by lobe reconnection in the summer hemisphere. We propose that the balance between the reconnection rates at these two sites is modulated by the IMF elevation angle, such that when the IMF points more directly northward, the summer lobe reconnection site dominates, re-closing all overdraped lobe flux and eventually becoming disconnected from the Northern Hemisphere.

Ionospheric and geomagnetic responses to changes in IMF B_Z: a superposed epoch study

Superposed epoch studies have been carried out in order to determine the ionospheric response at mid-latitudes to southward turnings of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). This is compared with the geomagnetic response, as seen in the indices K p, AE and Dst. The solar wind, IMF and geomagnetic data used were hourly averages from the years 1967–1989 and thus cover a full 22-year cycle in the solar magnetic field. These data were divided into subsets, determined by the magnitudes of the southward turnings and the concomitant increase in solar wind pressure. The superposed epoch studies were carried out using the time of the southward turning as time zero. The response of the mid-latitude ionosphere is studied by looking at the F-layer critical frequencies, f o F2, from hourly soundings by the Slough ionosonde and their deviation from the monthly median values, δf o F2. For the southward turnings with a change in B z of δB z > 11.5 nT accompanied by a solar wind dynamic pressure P exceeding 5 nPa, the F region critical frequency, f o F2, shows a marked decrease, reaching a minimum value about 20 h after the southward turning. This recovers to pre-event values over the subsequent 24 h, on average. The Dst index shows the classic storm-time decrease to about −60 nT. Four days later, the index has still to fully recover and is at about −25 nT. Both the K p and AE indices show rises before the southward turnings, when the IMF is strongly northward but the solar wind dynamic pressure is enhanced. The average AE index does register a clear isolated pulse (averaging 650 nT for 2 h, compared with a background peak level of near 450 nT at these times) showing enhanced energy deposition at high latitudes in substorms but, like K p, remains somewhat enhanced for several days, even after the average IMF has returned to zero after 1 day. This AE background decays away over several days as the Dst index recovers, indicating that there is some contamination of the currents observed at the AE stations by the continuing enhanced equatorial ring current. For data averaged over all seasons, the critical frequencies are depressed at Slough by 1.3 MHz, which is close to the lower decile of the overall distribution of δf o Fl values. Taking 30-day periods around summer and winter solstice, the largest depression is 1.6 and 1.2 MHz, respectively. This seasonal dependence is confirmed by a similar study for a Southern Hemisphere station, Argentine Island, giving peak depressions of 1.8 MHz and 0.5 MHz for summer and winter. For the subset of turnings where δB z > 11.5 nT and P ≤ 5 nPa, the response of the geomagnetic indices is similar but smaller, while the change in δf o F2 has all but disappeared. This confirms that the energy deposited at high latitudes, which leads to the geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances following a southward turning of the IMF, increases with the energy density (dynamic pressure) of the solar wind flow. The magnitude of all responses are shown to depend on δB z . At Slough, the peak depression always occurs when Slough rotates into the noon sector. The largest ionospheric response is for southward turnings seen between 15–21 UT.

The response of ionospheric convection in the polar cap to substorm activity

We report multi-instrument observations during an isolated substorm on 17 October 1989. The EISCAT radar operated in the SP-UK-POLI mode measuring ionospheric convection at latitudes 71°-78°. SAMNET and the EISCAT Magnetometer Cross provide information on the timing of substorm expansion phase onset and subsequent intensifications, as well as the location of the field aligned and ionospheric currents associated with the substorm current wedge. IMP-8 magnetic field data are also included. Evidence of a substorm growth phase is provided by the equatorward motion of a flow reversal boundary across the EISCAT radar field of view at 2130 MLT, following a southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We infer that the polar cap expanded as a result of the addition of open magnetic flux to the tail lobes during this interval. The flow reversal boundary, which is a lower limit to the polar cap boundary, reached an invariant latitude equatorward of 71° by the time of the expansion phase onset. A westward electrojet, centred at 65.4°, occurred at the onset of the expansion phase. This electrojet subsequently moved poleward to a maximum of 68.1° at 2000 UT and also widened. During the expansion phase, there is evidence of bursts of plasma flow which are spatially localised at longitudes within the substorm current wedge and which occurred well poleward of the westward electrojet. We conclude that the substorm onset region in the ionosphere, defined by the westward electrojet, mapped to a part of the tail radially earthward of the boundary between open and closed magnetic flux, the “distant” neutral line. Thus the substorm was not initiated at the distant neutral line, although there is evidence that it remained active during the expansion phase. It is not obvious whether the electrojet mapped to a near-Earth neutral line, but at its most poleward, the expanded electrojet does not reach the estimated latitude of the polar cap boundary.

A survey of simultaneous observations of the high-latitude ionosphere and interplanetary magnetic field with EISCAT and AMPTE-UKS

This paper surveys the results of simultaneous observations by the EISCAT incoherent scatter radar and the AMPTE-UKS satellite, made during three periods in September and October 1984, when AMPTE-UKS was in the solar wind on the dayside of the Earth and the UK-POLAR EISCAT experiment was measuring ionospheric parameters at invariant latitudes 70.8–75.0°. A total of 42 h of EISCAT convection velocity data, with 2.5 min resolution, were obtained, together with 28 h of simultaneous 5 s resolution AMPTE-UKS observations of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The general features of the AMPTE-UKS data are described in Section 2 and those of the EISCAT data are described in Sections 3 and 4. The main subjects discussed are the form of the plasma convection patterns and their dependence on all three components of the IMF (Section 5), the ionospheric response to abrupt changes in the IMF (Section 6), in particular a sharp ‘southward turning’ of the IMF on 27 October 1984, and a crossing of an IMF sector boundary. Section 7 describes ‘short lived rapid flow burst’, which are believed to be related to flux transfer events at the magnetopause.

HESS Opinions: On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?

Flood forecasting increasingly relies on numerical weather prediction forecasts to achieve longer lead times. One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is what to dowhen consecutive forecasts are so different that they lead to different conclusions regarding the issuing of warnings or triggering other action. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "Jumpiness", "Turning points", "Continuity" or number of "Swings"). In thsi opinion paper we define forecast inconsistency; discuss the reasons why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse inconsistency; and what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments.