The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.

100 years on: a century of genetics

In 2006 we celebrated the centenary of a remarkable year that saw the birth of genetics as a scientific discipline. This birth had its origins in horticulture and was supervised by a remarkable Cambridge academic, accompanied by a loyal group of female colleagues who worked together in underfunded conditions with little institutional support. Despite this deprivation, they established the foundations of an ongoing revolution, with huge academic and commercial consequences that we can recognize today in the shape of genomics and its application to biomedicine.

Challenges and opportunities for intelligent buildings in the 21st Century

Intelligent buildings should be sustainable, healthy, technologically aware, meet the needs of occupants and business, and should be flexible and adaptable to deal with change. This means the processes of design, construction, commissioning and facilities management including post occupancy evaluation are all equally important. Buildings comprise many systems devised by many people and yet the relationship between buildings and people can only work satisfactorily if there is integrated team with a holistic vision. The address will discuss some trends in the design and management of intelligent buildings for this century.

Preliterate phonological awareness and early literacy skills in Turkish

The role of preschool phonological awareness in early reading and spelling skills was investigated in the transparent orthography of Turkish. Fifty-six preschool children (mean age=5.6 years) were followed into Grade 2 (mean age=7.6 years). While preschool phonological awareness failed to make any reliable contribution to future reading skills, it was the strongest longitudinal correlate of spelling skills measured at the end of Grades 1 and 2. Overall findings suggested that phonological awareness may be differentially related to reading and spelling, and that spelling is a more sensitive index of phonological processing skills. In this study, verbal short-term memory emerged as the most powerful and consistent longitudinal correlate of reading speed. This finding raised important questions about the component processes of reading speed, and the role of memory and morphosyntactic skills in an agglutinative and transparent orthography such as Turkish.

Textural and microstructural properties of urfa cheese (a white-brined Turkish cheese)

The texture and microstructure of white-brined cheeses similar to urfa (a traditional Turkish cheese) were studied. One batch of cheeses was made in the traditional manner and one batch was made from ultrafiltered (UF) milk. Samples from each batch were either ripened in brine after production or scalded in whey for 3 min at 90degreesC prior to ripening. The results showed only marginal differences in the ripening profiles of both batches of unscalded cheeses, but scalding slowed down the extent of proteolysis in both batches. The scalded cheeses had a firmer texture than the unscalded ones, and the unscalded UF cheese had a more 'springy' body than the unscalded traditional cheese. Overall, scalding resulted in a more homogeneous structure, but the unscalded UF cheese had a close texture that resembled the scalded samples. It was concluded that, with respect to texture and structure, cheeses made with UF milk do not need to be scalded after production.

Component processes of early reading, spelling, and narrative writing skills in Turkish: a longitudinal study

The study examined: (a) the role of phonological, grammatical, and rapid automatized naming (RAN) skills in reading and spelling development; and (b) the component processes of early narrative writing skills. Fifty-seven Turkish-speaking children were followed from Grade 1 to Grade 2. RAN was the most powerful longitudinal predictor of reading speed and its effect was evident even when previous reading skills were taken into account. Broadly, the phonological and grammatical skills made reliable contributions to spelling performance but their effects were completely mediated by previous spelling skills. Different aspects of the narrative writing skills were related to different processing skills. While handwriting speed predicted writing fluency, spelling accuracy predicted spelling error rate. Vocabulary and working memory were the only reliable longitudinal predictors of the quality of composition content. The overall model, however, failed to explain any reliable variance in the structural quality of the compositions