Validation of the Swiss methane emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse modelling

Atmospheric inverse modelling has the potential to provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at the country scale, thereby allowing for an independent validation of national emission inventories. Here, we present a regional-scale inverse modelling study to quantify the emissions of methane (CH₄) from Switzerland, making use of the newly established CarboCount-CH measurement network and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model. In our reference inversion, prior emissions were taken from the "bottom-up" Swiss Greenhouse Gas Inventory (SGHGI) as published by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment in 2014 for the year 2012. Overall we estimate national CH₄ emissions to be 196 ± 18 Gg yr⁻¹ for the year 2013 (1σ uncertainty). This result is in close agreement with the recently revised SGHGI estimate of 206 ± 33 Gg yr⁻¹ as reported in 2015 for the year 2012. Results from sensitivity inversions using alternative prior emissions, uncertainty covariance settings, large-scale background mole fractions, two different inverse algorithms (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter), and two different transport models confirm the robustness and independent character of our estimate. According to the latest SGHGI estimate the main CH₄ source categories in Switzerland are agriculture (78 %), waste handling (15 %) and natural gas distribution and combustion (6 %). The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of our posterior emissions suggest an overestimation of agricultural CH₄ emissions by 10 to 20 % in the most recent SGHGI, which is likely due to an overestimation of emissions from manure handling. Urban areas do not appear as emission hotspots in our posterior results, suggesting that leakages from natural gas distribution are only a minor source of CH₄ in Switzerland. This is consistent with rather low emissions of 8.4 Gg yr⁻¹ reported by the SGHGI but inconsistent with the much higher value of 32 Gg yr⁻¹ implied by the EDGARv4.2 inventory for this sector. Increased CH₄ emissions (up to 30 % compared to the prior) were deduced for the north-eastern parts of Switzerland. This feature was common to most sensitivity inversions, which is a strong indicator that it is a real feature and not an artefact of the transport model and the inversion system. However, it was not possible to assign an unambiguous source process to the region. The observations of the CarboCount-CH network provided invaluable and independent information for the validation of the national bottom-up inventory. Similar systems need to be sustained to provide independent monitoring of future climate agreements.

Sea surface temperature calculated from UK37 and UK'37 in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean

In spite of the important role played by the Southern Ocean in global climate, the few existing paleoceanographic records in the east Pacific sector do not extend beyond one glacial-interglacial cycle, hindering circumpolar comparison of past sea surface temperature (SST) evolution in the Southern Ocean. Here we present three alkenone-based Pleistocene SST records from the subantarctic and subtropical Pacific. We use a regional core top calibration data set to constrain the choice of calibrations for paleo SST estimation. Our core top data confirm that the alkenone-based UK37 and UK'37 values correlate linearly with the SST, in a similar fashion as the most commonly used laboratory culture-based calibrations even at low temperatures (down to ~1°C), rendering these calibrations appropriate for application in the subantarctic Pacific. However, these alkenone indices yield diverging temporal trends in the Pleistocene SST records. On the basis of the better agreement with d18O records and other SST records in the subantarctic Southern Ocean, we propose that the UK37 is a better index for SST reconstruction in this region than the more commonly used UK'37 index. The UK37-derived SST records suggest glacial cooling of ~8°C and ~4°C in the subantarctic and subtropical Pacific, respectively. Such extent of subantarctic glacial cooling is comparable to that in other sectors of the Southern Ocean, indicating a uniform circumpolar cooling during the Pleistocene. Furthermore, our SST records also imply massive equatorward migrations of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) frontal systems and an enhanced transport of ACC water to lower latitudes during glacials by the Peru-Chile Current.

Developing freeway and incident management systems using the national ITS architecture.

Performing organizations: Mitretek Systems and PB Farradyne, Inc.

An analysis of the distinction between deep and shallow expert systems /

This paper analyzes the relationship between the techniques used to build expert systems and the behaviors they exhibit to show that there is not sufficient evidence to link the behavioral shortcomings of first-generation expert systems to the shallow methods of representation and inference they employ. There is only evidence that the shortcomings are a consequence of a general lack of knowledge. Moreover, the paper shows that the first-generation of expert systems employ both shallow methods and most of the so-called deep methods. Lastly, we show that deeper methods augment but do not replace shallow reasoning methods; most expert systems should possess both."

Carload waybill statistics; territorial distribution, traffic and revenue by commodity classes.

Vols. for 1947-52 called also Statement no. 495 [etc.]; 1953- called also Statement TD-1.

Mixed-Member Electoral Systems in Constitutional Context : Taiwan, Japan, and Beyond /

After the electoral reform in 1994, Japan saw a gradual evolution from a multi-party system toward a two-party system over the course of five House of Representatives election cycles. In contrast, after Taiwan’s constitutional amendment in 2005, a two-party system emerged in the first post-reform legislative election in 2008. Critically, however, Taiwan’s president is directly elected while Japan’s prime minister is indirectly elected. The contributors conclude that the higher the payoffs of holding the executive office and the greater degree of cross-district coordination required to win it, the stronger the incentives for elites to form and stay in the major parties. In such a context, a country will move rapidly toward a two-party system. In Part II, the contributors apply this theoretical logic to other countries with mixed-member systems to demonstrate its generality. They find the effect of executive competition on legislative electoral rules in countries as disparate as Thailand, the Philippines, New Zealand, Bolivia, and Russia. The findings presented in this book have important implications for political reform. Often, reformers are motivated by high hopes of solving some political problems and enhancing the quality of democracy. But, as this group of scholars demonstrates, electoral reform alone is not a panacea. Whether and to what extent it achieves the advocated goals depends not only on the specification of new electoral rules per se but also on the political context—and especially the constitutional framework—within which such rules are embedded.

Travel behaviour change in old age : the role of critical incidents in public transport

Older people’s travel behaviour is affected by negative or positive critical incidents in the public transport environment. With the objective of identifying such inci- dents during whole trips and examining how travel beha- viour had changed, we have conducted in-depth interviews with 30 participants aged 65–91 years in the County of Stockholm, Sweden. Out of 469 incidents identified, 77 were reported to have resulted in travel behaviour change, 67 of them in a negative way. Most critical incidents were encountered in the physical environment on-board vehicles and at stations/stops as well as in pricing/ticketing. The findings show that more personal assistance, better driving behaviour, and swift maintenance of elevators and escala- tors are key facilitators that would improve predictability in travelling and enhance vulnerable older travellers’ feeling of security. The results demonstrate the benefit of involving different groups of end users in future planning and design, such that transport systems would meet the various needs of its end users.

Aspects of Markov Chains and Particle Systems

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

An evolutionary economic perspective on technical change and adjustment in cane harvesting systems in the Australian sugar industry

Australian sugar-producing regions have differed in terms of the extent and rate of incorporation of new technology into harvesting systems. The Mackay sugar industry has lagged behind most other sugar-producing regions in this regard. The reasons for this are addressed by invoking an evolutionary economics perspective. The development of harvesting systems, and the role of technology in shaping them, is mapped and interpreted using the concept of path dependency. Key events in the evolution of harvesting systems are identified, which show how the past has shaped the regional development of harvesting systems. From an evolutionary economics perspective, the outcomes observed are the end result of a specific history.

Gelatinisation of starch in mixtures of sugars. I. Dynamic rheological properties and behaviours of starch-honey systems

Dynamic rheological behaviour of starch-honey systems was studied using a strain-controlled rheometer. A dynamic temperature (30-130 degreesC) ramp test was used at 10 rad s(-1) frequency, 1% strain, 2 degreesC min(-1) ramp rate, 25 mm parallel plate, and 1.5 min gap, using Wheaten cornflour(TM) and five honeys to generate 25 formulations (0.34-0.80 g water/g dry starch). G', G, and eta* increased upon gelatinisation, and they reduced as the honey content was increased. For all the formulations, G' was higher than G, and tan 6 was generally less than 1.0. Key gelatinisation characterising temperatures (onset, peak and end) ranged from 96.0 to 122.3 degreesC, but did not vary much (CV < 5%) for each honey irrespective of the concentration. The influence of water, fructose and glucose, singly and in combination, on gelatinisation indices (temperature and rheological parameters) was investigated. An exponential equation was employed to describe the relationship, and relevant parameters were obtained. The consequences of the observations in the study are discussed particularly as they relate to extrusion of such systems, and possible interactions between fructose and glucose in the starch-honey systems. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On systems thinking, systems biology and the in Silico Plant

The recent summary report of a Department of Energy Workshop on Plant Systems Biology (P.V. Minorsky [2003] Plant Physiol 132: 404-409) offered a welcomed advocacy for systems analysis as essential in understanding plant development, growth, and production. The goal of the Workshop was to consider methods for relating the results of molecular research to real-world challenges in plant production for increased food supplies, alternative energy sources, and environmental improvement. The rather surprising feature of this report, however, was that the Workshop largely overlooked the rich history of plant systems analysis extending over nearly 40 years (Sinclair and Seligman, 1996) that has considered exactly those challenges targeted by the Workshop. Past systems research has explored and incorporated biochemical and physiological knowledge into plant simulation models from a number of perspectives. The research has resulted in considerable understanding and insight about how to simulate plant systems and the relative contribution of various factors in influencing plant production. These past activities have contributed directly to research focused on solving the problems of increasing biomass production and crop yields. These modeling approaches are also now providing an avenue to enhance integration of molecular genetic technologies in plant improvement (Hammer et al., 2002).

Modelling, nitrogen dynamics in sugarcane systems: Recent advances and applications

Substantial amounts of nitrogen (N) fertiliser are necessary for commercial sugarcane production because of the large biomass produced by sugarcane crops. Since this fertiliser is a substantial input cost and has implications if N is lost to the environment, there are pressing needs to optimise the supply of N to the crops' requirements. The complexity of the N cycle and the strong influence of climate, through its moderation of N transformation processes in the soil and its impact on N uptake by crops, make simulation-based approaches to this N management problem attractive. In this paper we describe the processes to be captured in modelling soil and plant N dynamics in sugarcane systems, and review the capability for modelling these processes. We then illustrate insights gained into improved management of N through simulation-based studies for the issues of crop residue management, irrigation management and greenhouse gas emissions. We conclude by identifying processes not currently represented in the models used for simulating N cycling in sugarcane production systems, and illustrate ways in which these can be partially overcome in the short term. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heterogeneity of physico-chemical properties in structured soils and its consequences

Structured soils are characterized by the presence of inter- and intra-aggregate pore systems and aggregates, which show varying chemical, physical, and biological properties depending on the aggregate type and land use system. How far these aspects also affect the ion exchange processes and to what extent the interaction between the carbon distribution and kind of organic substances affect the internal soil strength as well as hydraulic properties like wettability are still under discussion. Thus, the objective of this research was to clarify the effect of soil aggregation on physical and chemical properties of structured soils at two scales: homogenized material and single aggregates. Data obtained by sequentially peeling off soil aggregates layers revealed gradients in the chemical composition from the aggregate surface to the aggregate core. In aggregates from long term untreated forest soils we found lower amounts of carbon in the external layer, while in arable soils the differentiation was not pronounced. However, soil aggregates originating from these sites exhibited a higher concentration of microbial activity in the outer aggregate layer and declined towards the interior. Furthermore, soil depth and the vegetation type affected the wettability. Aggregate strength depended. on water suction and differences in tillage treatments.

Postnatal developmental expression of the PDZ scaffolds Na+-H+ exchanger regulatory factors 1 and 2 in the rat cochlea

Sensory transduction in the mammalian cochlea requires the maintenance of specialized fluid compartments with distinct ionic compositions. This is achieved by the concerted action of diverse ion channels and transporters, some of which can interact with the PDZ scaffolds, Na+-H+ exchanger regulatory factors 1 and 2 (NHERF-1, NHERF-2). Here, we report that NHERF-1 and NHERF-2 are widely expressed in the rat cochlea, and that their expression is developmentally regulated. Reverse transcription/polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and Western blotting initially confirmed the RNA and protein expression of NHERFs. We then performed immunohistochemistry on cochlea during various stages of postnatal development. Prior to the onset of hearing (P8), NHERF-1 immunolabeling was prominently polarized to the apical membrane of cells lining the endolymphatic compartment, including the stereocilia and cuticular plates of the inner and outer hair cells, marginal cells of the stria vascularis, Reissner's epithelia, and tectorial membrane. With maturation (P21, P70), NHERF-1 immunolabeling was reduced in the above structures, whereas labeling increased in the apical membrane of the interdental cells of the spiral limbus and the inner and outer sulcus cells, Hensen's cells, the inner and outer pillar cells, Deiters cells, the inner border cells, spiral ligament fibrocytes, and spiral ganglion neurons (particularly type II). NHERF-1 expression in strial basal and intermediate cells was persistent. NHERF-2 immunolabeling was similar to that for NHERF-1 during postnatal development, with the exception of expression in the synaptic regions beneath the outer hair cells. NHERF-1 and NHERF-2 co-localized with glial fibrillary acidic protein and vimentin in glia. The cochlear localization of NHERF scaffolds suggests that they play important roles in the developmental regulation of ion transport, homeostasis, and auditory neurotransmission.

Transport of simple fluids in nanopores: Theory and simulation

A theory is discussed of single-component transport in nanopores, recently developed by Bhatia and coworkers. The theory considers the oscillatory motion of molecules between diffuse wall collisions, arising from the fluid-wall interaction, along with superimposed viscous flow due to fluid-fluid interaction. The theory is tested against molecular dynamics simulations for hydrogen, methane, and carbon tetrafluoride flow in cylindrical nanopores in silica. Although exact at low densities, the theory performs well even at high densities, with the density dependency of the transport coefficient arising from viscous effects. Such viscous effects are reduced at high densities because of the large increase in viscosity, which explains the maximum in the transport coefficient with increase in density. Further, it is seen that in narrow pore sizes of less than two molecular diameters, where a complete monolayer cannot form on the surface, the mutual interference of molecules on opposite sides of the cross section can reduce the transport coefficient, and lead to a maximum in the transport coefficient with increasing density. The theory is also tested for the case of partially diffuse reflection and shows the viscous contribution to be negligible when the reflection is nearly specular. (c) 2005 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 52: 29-38, 2006.