Estudo das forças capilar, viscosa e gravitacional através de grupos adimensionais na simulação da drenagem gravitacional assistida por gás (GAGD)

The distribution and mobilization of fluid in a porous medium depend on the capillary, gravity, and viscous forces. In oil field, the processes of enhanced oil recovery involve change and importance of these forces to increase the oil recovery factor. In the case of gas assisted gravity drainage (GAGD) process is important to understand the physical mechanisms to mobilize oil through the interaction of these forces. For this reason, several authors have developed physical models in laboratory and core floods of GAGD to study the performance of these forces through dimensionless groups. These models showed conclusive results. However, numerical simulation models have not been used for this type of study. Therefore, the objective of this work is to study the performance of capillary, viscous and gravity forces on GAGD process and its influence on the oil recovery factor through a 2D numerical simulation model. To analyze the interplay of these forces, dimensionless groups reported in the literature have been used such as Capillary Number (Nc), Bond number (Nb) and Gravity Number (Ng). This was done to determine the effectiveness of each force related to the other one. A comparison of the results obtained from the numerical simulation was also carried out with the results reported in the literature. The results showed that before breakthrough time, the lower is the injection flow rate, oil recovery is increased by capillary force, and after breakthrough time, the higher is the injection flow rate, oil recovery is increased by gravity force. A good relationship was found between the results obtained in this research with those published in the literature. The simulation results indicated that before the gas breakthrough, higher oil recoveries were obtained at lower Nc and Nb and, after the gas breakthrough, higher oil recoveries were obtained at lower Ng. The numerical models are consistent with the reported results in the literature

Influência de eventos hidrológicos extremos na qualidade da água de reservatórios na região tropical semiárida

Reservoirs are artificial ecosystems, intermediate between rivers and lakes, with diferent morphological and hydrological characteristics that can provide many important benefits to society. However, the use of this water for human consumption, watering livestock, leisure, irrigated agricultural production and pisciculture development, directly influence the increase loading of nutrients to aquatic environments and contribute to acceleration of eutrophication. Furthermore, global climate models are predicting a higher occurrence of extreme events such as floods and severe droughts, which will create hydrological stresses in lakes. In the semiarid northeast we can see the occurrence of these events, the drought of the years 2012, 2013 and 2014 was the worst drought in 60 years, according to the National Water Agency (ANA). Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the quality of the semiarid tropical water sources, identifying temporal patterns in periods with extreme hydrological events (floods and severe droughts). The study results showed that Gargalheiras and Cruzeta reservoirs presented significative changes in the limnological variables between rain and severe drought periods, with better appearance and in the most of the water quality variables in the rainy season and higher nutrientes concentrations and high electrical conductivity values in severe season, indicating decay of its quality. However, we found diferent behaviors between the reservoirs in severe drought. While Gargalheiras showed a typical behavior of the region, with high concentrations of algal biomass, indicating the worsening eutrophication, Cruzeta demonstrated a colapse in the total phytoplankton biomass, evidenced by the decrease in chla concentrations. This fact occurred because the low depth and proximity with the sediment facilited the inorganic solids resuspension and, consequently, resulted in turbid water column and light by limitation. In addition, the different behaviors between the reservoirs indicate that the responses of these environments problems such as extreme events must take into account factors such the region climate, size, depth of the reservoir and the basin characteristics.

Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Avaliação do controle da diagênese na qualidade de reservatório siliciclástico do cenomaniano superior da formação Açu, sudoeste da bacia potiguar

The distribution of diagenetic alterations in Late Cenomanian siliciclastic reservoirs from Potiguar Basin was influenced by the stratigraphic framework and the depositional system. Seismic sections and geophysical logs of two wells drilled in the SW portion of the mentioned basin above register regional stratigraphic surfaces representing maximum floods related to a transgressive event. The sequential analysis of 80 m of drill core (~450 m deep) recognized nine depositional facies with an upwards granodecrescent standard piling that limits cycles with an erosional conglomeratic base (lag) overlain by intercalations of medium to very fine sandstones showing cross bedding (channel, planar and low angled) and horizontal bedding (plane-parallel , wave and flaser). The top of the cycles is marked by the deposition of pelites and the development of paleosoils and lagoons. The correlation of genetically related facies reveals associations of channel fillings, crevasse, and flood plains deposited in a transgressive system. Detailed descriptions of seventy nine thin sections aided by MEV-EBSD/EDS, DRX and stable isotope analyses in sandstones revealed an arcosian composition and complex textural arrays with abundant smectite fringes continuously covering primary components, mechanically infiltrated cuticles and moldic and intragrain pores. K-feldspar epitaxial overgrowth covers microcline and orthoclase grains before any other phase. Abundant pseudomatrix due to the compactation of mud intraclasts concentrate along the stratification planes, locally replaced by macrocristalline calcite and microcrystalline and framboidal pyrite. Kaolinite (booklets and vermicular), microcrystalline smectite, microcrystalline titanium minerals and pyrite replace the primary components. The intergrain porosity prevails over the moldic, intragrain and contraction porosities. The pores are poorly connected due to the presence of intergranular smectite, k-feldspar overgrowth, infiltrated mud and pseudomatrix. The sandstones were subjected to eodiagenetic conditions next to the surface and shallow burial mesodiagenetic conditions. The diagenetic alterations reduced the porosity and the permeability mainly due to the precipitation of smectite fringes, compactation of mud intraclasts onto the pseudomatrix and cementing by poikilotopic calcite characterizing different reservoir petrofacies. These diagenetic products acted as barriers and detours to the flow of fluids thus reducing the quality of the reservoir.

Desempenho de uma lagoa de infiltração na absorção de cheias e na recarga de aquífero

A type of macro drainage solution widely used in urban areas with predomi-nance of closed catchments (basins without outlet) is the implementation of detention and infiltration reservoirs (DIR). This type of solution has the main function of storing surface runoff and to promote soil infiltration and, consequently, aquifer recharge. The practice is to avoid floods in the drainage basin low-lying areas. The catchment waterproofing reduces the distributed groundwater recharge in urban areas, as is the case of Natal city, RN. However, the advantage of DIR is to concentrate the runoff and to promote aquifer recharge to an amount that can surpass the distributed natu-ral recharge. In this paper, we proposed studying a small urban drainage catchment, named Experimental Mirassol Watershed (EMW) in Natal, RN, whose outlet is a DIR. The rainfall-runoff transformation processes, water accumulation in DIR and the pro-cess of infiltration and percolation in the soil profile until the free aquifer were mod-eled and, from rainfall event observations, water levels in DIR and free aquifer water level measurements, and also, parameter values determination, it is was enabled to calibrate and modeling these combined processes. The mathematical modeling was carried out from two numerical models. We used the rainfall-runoff model developed by RIGHETTO (2014), and besides, we developed a one-dimensional model to simu-late the soil infiltration, percolation, redistribution soil water and groundwater in a combined system to the reservoir water balance. Continuous simulation was run over a period of eighteen months in time intervals of one minute. The drainage basin was discretized in blocks units as well as street reaches and the soil profile in vertical cells of 2 cm deep to a total depth of 30 m. The generated hydrographs were transformed into inlet volumes to the DIR and then, it was carried out water balance in these time intervals, considering infiltration and percolation of water in the soil profile. As a re-sult, we get to evaluate the storage water process in DIR as well as the infiltration of water, redistribution into the soil and the groundwater aquifer recharge, in continuous temporal simulation. We found that the DIR has good performance to storage excess water drainage and to contribute to the local aquifer recharge process (Aquifer Dunas / Barreiras).

Event layer chronology from Lake Suigetsu (Japan, SG06 Project) for the last 40 kyr

Event layers in lake sediments are indicators of past extreme events, mostly the results of floods or earthquakes. Detailed characterisation of the layers allows the discrimination of the sedimentation processes involved, such as surface runoff, landslides or subaqueous slope failures. These processes can then be interpreted in terms of their triggering mechanisms. Here we present a 40 kyr event layer chronology from Lake Suigetsu, Japan. The event layers were characterised using a multi-proxy approach, employing light microscopy and µXRF for microfacies analysis. The vast majority of event layers in Lake Suigetsu was produced by flood events (362 out of 369), allowing the construction of the first long-term, quantitative (with respect to recurrence) and well dated flood chronology from the region. The flood layer frequency shows a high variability over the last 40 kyr, and it appears that extreme precipitation events were decoupled from the average long-term precipitation. For instance, the flood layer frequency is highest in the Glacial at around 25 kyr BP, at which time Japan was experiencing a generally cold and dry climate. Other cold episodes, such as Heinrich Event 1 or the Late Glacial stadial, show a low flood layer frequency. Both observations together exclude a simple, straightforward relationship with average precipitation and temperature. We argue that, especially during Glacial times, changes in typhoon genesis/typhoon tracks are the most likely control on the flood layer frequency, rather than changes in the monsoon front or snow melts. Spectral analysis of the flood chronology revealed periodic variations on centennial and millennial time scales, with 220 yr, 450 yr and a 2000 yr cyclicity most pronounced. However, the flood layer frequency appears to have not only been influenced by climate changes, but also by changes in erosion rates due to, for instance, earthquakes.

(Table 2) Radiocarbon content and 14C AMS ages of planktonic foraminifera from sediment cores Louis_1900 and Louis_2023

North American freshwater runoff records have been used to support the case that climate flickers were caused by shutdowns of the ocean thermohaline circulation (THC) resulting from reversals of meltwater discharges. Inconsistencies in the documentation of these meltwater switches, however, continue to fuel the debate on the cause/s of the oscillatory nature of the deglacial climate. New oxygen and carbon isotope records from the northern Gulf of Mexico depict in exceptional detail the succession of meltwater floods and pauses through the southern routing during the interval 16 to 8.9 ka (14C years BP; ka, kiloannum). The records underscore the bimodal role played by the Gulf of Mexico as a destination of meltwater discharges from the receding Laurentide Ice Sheet. The evidence indicates that the Gulf of Mexico acted as the principal source of superfloods at 13.4, 12.6, and 11.9 ka that reached the North Atlantic and contributed significantly to density stratification, disruption of ocean ventilation, and cold reversals. Gulf of Mexico lapsed into a "relief valve" position in post-Younger Dryas time, when meltwater discharges were rerouted south at 9.9, 9.7, 9.4, and 9.1 ka, thus temporarily interrupting North Atlantic-bound freshwater discharges from Lake Agassiz. The history of meltwater events in the Gulf of Mexico contradicts the model that meltwater flow via the eastern outlets into the North Atlantic disrupted the ocean THC, causing cooling, while diversions to the Gulf of Mexico via the Mississippi River enhanced THC and warming.

Detrital layer thickness in 12 varved sediment cores in Lake Mondsee and related flood events AD1976-2005

A succession of 23 sub-millimetre to maximum 12-mm-thick, mostly flood-triggered detrital layers, deposited between 1976 and 2005, was analysed in 12 varved surface sediment cores from meso-scale peri-alpine Lake Mondsee applying microfacies and high-resolution micro X-ray fluorescence analyses. Detailed intrabasin comparison of these layers enabled identification of (i) different source areas of detrital sediments, (ii) flood-triggered sediment flux and local erosion events, and (iii) seasonal differences of suspended flood sediment distribution within the lake basin. Additional calibration of the detrital layer record with river discharge and precipitation data reveals different empirical thresholds for flood layer deposition for different parts of the basin. At proximal locations detrital layer deposition requires floods exceeding a daily discharge of 40 m**3/s, whereas at a location 2 km more distal an hourly discharge of 80 m**3/s and at least 2 days of discharge above 40 m**3/s are necessary. Furthermore, we observe a better correlation between layer thickness and flood amplitude in the depocentre than in distal and proximal areas of the basin. Although our results are partly site-specific, the applied dual calibration approach is suitable to precisely decipher flood layer formation processes and, thereby, improve the interpretation of long flood time series from lake sediments.

Spring snowmelt and midwinter thaw and refreeze north of 60°N based on Seawinds QuikScat 2000-2009

The scatterometer SeaWinds on QuikSCAT provided regular measurements at Ku-band from 1999 to 2009. Although it was designed for ocean applications, it has been frequently used for the assessment of seasonal snowmelt patterns aside from other terrestrial applications such as ice cap monitoring, phenology and urban mapping. This paper discusses general data characteristics of SeaWinds and reviews relevant change detection algorithms. Depending on the complexity of the method, parameters such as long-term noise and multiple event analyses were incorporated. Temporal averaging is a commonly accepted preprocessing step with consideration of diurnal, multi-day or seasonal averages.

Core scans and lithologic analysis of Subglacial Lake Whillans sediment cores

The hydrologic system beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet is thought to influence both the dynamics and distribution of fast flowing ice streams, which discharge most of the ice lost by the ice sheet. Despite considerable interest in understanding this subglacial network and its affect on ice flow, in situ observations from the ice sheet bed are exceedingly rare. Here we describe the first sediment cores recovered from an active subglacial lake. The lake, known as Subglacial Lake Whillans, is part of a broader, dynamic hydrologic network beneath the Whillans Ice Stream in West Antarctica. Even though "floods" pass through the lake, the lake floor shows no evidence of erosion or deposition by flowing water. By inference, these floods must have insufficient energy to erode or transport significant volumes of sediment coarser than silt. Consequently, water flow beneath the region is probably incapable of incising continuous channels into the bed and instead follows preexisting subglacial topography and surface slope. Sediment on the lake floor consists of till deposited during intermittent grounding of the ice stream following flood events. The fabrics within the till are weaker than those thought to develop in thick deforming beds suggesting subglacial sediment fluxes across the ice plain are currently low and unlikely to have a large stabilizing effect on the ice stream's grounding zone.

Activity concentrations of radionuclides in 5 short cores taken in 2007-2008 measured by ICP-MS and HPGe gamma spectrometry

Natural radionuclides and man-made 137Cs were analyzed in five short sediment cores taken in northern part of the Gulf of Eilat (Gulf of Aqaba) in order to provide information on sedimentation and mixing rates and sediment sources. The maximum estimates of sedimentation rates based on excess 210Pb were found to vary between 0.105 ± 0.020 and 0.35 ± 0.23 cm · year**-1. Even the lowest estimates are significantly higher than those expected from dust deposition, suggesting other sources and processes being responsible for most of the allochthonous material accumulation, including periodical floods following heavy rain events, internal erosion or triggers, like earthquakes. In 137Cs depth profiles no 1963 related nuclear weapon test maxima were found; instead, the activities decrease monotonically, suggesting that a major process leading to radionuclides' depth distribution might be mixing. The mixing rates calculated from 137Cs, excess 210Pb and excess 228Th reach values up to 2.18 ± 0.69 cm**2 · year**-1.

Is there really "nothing you can do"? Pathways to enhanced flood-risk preparedness

Whilst policy makers have tended to adopt an ‘information-deficit model’ to bolster levels of flood-risk preparedness primarily though communication strategies promoting awareness, the assumed causal relation between awareness and preparedness is empirically weak. As such, there is a growing interest amongst scholars and policy makers alike to better understand why at-risk individuals are underprepared. In this vein, empirical studies, typically employing quantitative methods, have tended to focus on exploring the extent to which flood-risk preparedness levels vary depending not only on socio-demographic variables, but also (and increasingly so) the perceptual factors that influence flood risk preparedness. This study builds upon and extends this body of research by offering a more solution-focused approach that seeks to identify how pathways to flood-risk preparedness can be opened up. Specifically, through application of a qualitative methodology, we seek to explore how the factors that negatively influence flood-risk preparedness can be addressed to foster a shift towards greater levels of mitigation behaviour. In doing so, we focus our analysis on an urban community in Ireland that is identified as ‘at risk’ of flash flooding and is currently undergoing significant flood relief works. In this regard, the case study offers an interesting laboratory to explore how attitudes towards flood-risk preparedness at the individual level are being influenced within the context of a flood relief scheme that is only partially constructed. In order to redress the dearth of theoretically informed qualitative studies in this field, we draw on Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to help guide our analysis and make sense of our results. Our findings demonstrate that flood-risk preparedness can be undermined by low levels of efficacy amongst individuals in terms of the preparedness measures available to them and their own personal capacity to implement them. We also elucidate that the ‘levee effect’ can occur before engineered flood defences are fully constructed as the flood relief works within our case study are beginning to affect people’s perception of flood risk in the case study area. We conclude by arguing that 1) individuals’ coping appraisals need to be enhanced through communication strategies and other interventions which highlight that future floods may not replicate past events; and 2) the concept of residual risk needs to be communicated at all stages of a flood relief scheme, not just upon completion.

Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013

Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders.

Dealing with flood damages: will prevention, mitigation, and ex post compensation provide for a resilient triangle?

There is a wealth of literature on the design of ex post compensation mechanisms for natural disasters. However, more research needs to be done on the manner in which these mechanisms could steer citizens toward adopting individual-level preventive and protection measures in the face of flood risks. We have provided a comparative legal analysis of the financial compensation mechanisms following floods, be it through insurance, public funds, or a combination of both, with an empirical focus on Belgium, the Netherlands, England, and France. Similarities and differences between the methods in which these compensation mechanisms for flood damages enhance resilience were analyzed. The comparative analysis especially focused on the link between the recovery strategy on the one hand and prevention and mitigation strategies on the other. There is great potential within the recovery strategy for promoting preventive action, for example in terms of discouraging citizens from living in high-risk areas, or encouraging the uptake of mitigation measures, such as adaptive building. However, this large potential has yet to be realized, in part because of insufficient consideration and promotion of these connections within existing legal frameworks. We have made recommendations about how the linkages between strategies can be further improved. These recommendations relate to, among others, the promotion of resilient reinstatement through recovery mechanisms and the removal of legal barriers preventing the establishment of link-inducing measures.

Disaster preparedness, adaptive politics and lifelong learning: a case of Japan

Preparedness for disaster scenarios is progressively becoming an educational agenda for governments because of diversifying risks and threats worldwide. In disaster-prone Japan, disaster preparedness has been a prioritised national agenda, and preparedness education has been undertaken in both formal schooling and lifelong learning settings. This article examines the politics behind one prevailing policy discourse in the field of disaster preparedness referred to as ‘the four forms of aid’ – ‘kojo [public aid]’, ‘jijo [self-help]’, ‘gojo/kyojo [mutual aid]’. The study looks at the Japanese case, however, the significance is global, given that neo-liberal governments are increasingly having to deal with a range of disaster situations whether floods or terrorism, while implementing austerity measures. Drawing on the theory of the adaptiveness of neo-liberalism, the article sheds light on the hybridity of the current Abe government’s politics: a ‘dominant’ neo-liberal economic approach – public aid and self-help – and a ‘subordinate’ moral conservative agenda – mutual aid. It is argued that the four forms of aid are an effective ‘balancing act’, and that kyojo in particular is a powerful legitimator in the hybrid politics. The article concludes that a lifelong and life-wide preparedness model could be developed in Japan which has taken a social approach to lifelong learning. © 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group