Effectively Selecting a Target Population for a Future Comparative Study

When comparing a new treatment with a control in a randomized clinical study, the treatment effect is generally assessed by evaluating a summary measure over a specific study population. The success of the trial heavily depends on the choice of such a population. In this paper, we show a systematic, effective way to identify a promising population, for which the new treatment is expected to have a desired benefit, using the data from a current study involving similar comparator treatments. Specifically, with the existing data we first create a parametric scoring system using multiple covariates to estimate subject-specific treatment differences. Using this system, we specify a desired level of treatment difference and create a subgroup of patients, defined as those whose estimated scores exceed this threshold. An empirically calibrated group-specific treatment difference curve across a range of threshold values is constructed. The population of patients with any desired level of treatment benefit can then be identified accordingly. To avoid any ``self-serving'' bias, we utilize a cross-training-evaluation method for implementing the above two-step procedure. Lastly, we show how to select the best scoring system among all competing models. The proposals are illustrated with the data from two clinical trials in treating AIDS and cardiovascular diseases. Note that if we are not interested in designing a new study for comparing similar treatments, the new procedure can also be quite useful for the management of future patients who would receive nontrivial benefits to compensate for the risk or cost of the new treatment.

Effects of butorphanol on the withdrawal reflex using threshold, suprathreshold and repeated subthreshold electrical stimuli in conscious horses

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects of a single intravenous dose of butorphanol (0.1 mg kg(-1)) on the nociceptive withdrawal reflex (NWR) using threshold, suprathreshold and repeated subthreshold electrical stimuli in conscious horses. STUDY DESIGN: 'Unblinded', prospective experimental study. ANIMALS: Ten adult horses, five geldings and five mares, mean body mass 517 kg (range 487-569 kg). METHODS: The NWR was elicited using single transcutaneous electrical stimulation of the palmar digital nerve. Repeated stimulations were applied to evoke temporal summation. Surface electromyography was performed to record and quantify the responses of the common digital extensor muscle to stimulation and behavioural reactions were scored. Before butorphanol administration and at fixed time points up to 2 hours after injection, baseline threshold intensities for NWR and temporal summation were defined and single suprathreshold stimulations applied. Friedman repeated-measures analysis of variance on ranks and Wilcoxon signed-rank test were used with the Student-Newman-Keul's method applied post-hoc. The level of significance (alpha) was set at 0.05. RESULTS: Butorphanol did not modify either the thresholds for NWR and temporal summation or the reaction scores, but the difference between suprathreshold and threshold reflex amplitudes was reduced when single stimulation was applied. Upon repeated stimulation after butorphanol administration, a significant decrease in the relative amplitude was calculated for both the 30-80 and the 80-200 millisecond intervals after each stimulus, and for the whole post-stimulation interval in the right thoracic limb. In the left thoracic limb a decrease in the relative amplitude was found only in the 30-80 millisecond epoch. CONCLUSION: Butorphanol at 0.1 mg kg(-1) has no direct action on spinal Adelta nociceptive activity but may have some supraspinal effects that reduce the gain of the nociceptive system. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Butorphanol has minimal effect on sharp immediate Adelta-mediated pain but may alter spinal processing and decrease the delayed sensations of pain.

Meperidine and skin surface warming additively reduce the shivering threshold: a volunteer study

INTRODUCTION: Mild therapeutic hypothermia has been shown to improve outcome for patients after cardiac arrest and may be beneficial for ischaemic stroke and myocardial ischaemia patients. However, in the awake patient, even a small decrease of core temperature provokes vigorous autonomic reactions-vasoconstriction and shivering-which both inhibit efficient core cooling. Meperidine and skin warming each linearly lower vasoconstriction and shivering thresholds. We tested whether a combination of skin warming and a medium dose of meperidine additively would reduce the shivering threshold to below 34 degrees C without producing significant sedation or respiratory depression. METHODS: Eight healthy volunteers participated on four study days: (1) control, (2) skin warming (with forced air and warming mattress), (3) meperidine (target plasma level: 0.9 mug/ml), and (4) skin warming plus meperidine (target plasma level: 0.9 mug/ml). Volunteers were cooled with 4 degrees C cold Ringer lactate infused over a central venous catheter (rate asymptotically equal to 2.4 degrees C/hour core temperature drop). Shivering threshold was identified by an increase of oxygen consumption (+20% of baseline). Sedation was assessed with the Observer's Assessment of Alertness/Sedation scale. RESULTS: Control shivering threshold was 35.5 degrees C +/- 0.2 degrees C. Skin warming reduced the shivering threshold to 34.9 degrees C +/- 0.5 degrees C (p = 0.01). Meperidine reduced the shivering threshold to 34.2 degrees C +/- 0.3 degrees C (p < 0.01). The combination of meperidine and skin warming reduced the shivering threshold to 33.8 degrees C +/- 0.2 degrees C (p < 0.01). There were no synergistic or antagonistic effects of meperidine and skin warming (p = 0.59). Only very mild sedation occurred on meperidine days. CONCLUSION: A combination of meperidine and skin surface warming reduced the shivering threshold to 33.8 degrees C +/- 0.2 degrees C via an additive interaction and produced only very mild sedation and no respiratory toxicity.

Variation in habitat choice and delayed reproduction: Adaptive queuing strategies or individual quality differences?

In most species, some individuals delay reproduction or occupy inferior breeding positions. The queue hypothesis tries to explain both patterns by proposing that individuals strategically delay breeding (queue) to acquire better breeding or social positions. In 1995, Ens, Weissing, and Drent addressed evolutionarily stable queuing strategies in situations with habitat heterogeneity. However, their model did not consider the non - mutually exclusive individual quality hypothesis, which suggests that some individuals delay breeding or occupy inferior breeding positions because they are poor competitors. Here we extend their model with individual differences in competitive abilities, which are probably plentiful in nature. We show that including even the smallest competitive asymmetries will result in individuals using queuing strategies completely different from those in models that assume equal competitors. Subsequently, we investigate how well our models can explain settlement patterns in the wild, using a long-term study on oystercatchers. This long-lived shorebird exhibits strong variation in age of first reproduction and territory quality. We show that only models that include competitive asymmetries can explain why oystercatchers' settlement patterns depend on natal origin. We conclude that predictions from queuing models are very sensitive to assumptions about competitive asymmetries, while detecting such differences in the wild is often problematic.

Lipid-poor adenomas on unenhanced CT: does histogram analysis increase sensitivity compared with a mean attenuation threshold?

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of our study was to evaluate the efficacy of CT histogram analysis for further characterization of lipid-poor adenomas on unenhanced CT. MATERIALS AND METHODS: One hundred thirty-two adrenal nodules were identified in 104 patients with lung cancer who underwent PET/CT. Sixty-five nodules were classified as lipid-rich adenomas if they had an unenhanced CT attenuation of less than or equal to 10 H. Thirty-one masses were classified as lipid-poor adenomas if they had an unenhanced CT attenuation greater than 10 H and stability for more than 1 year. Thirty-six masses were classified as lung cancer metastases if they showed rapid growth in 1 year (n = 27) or were biopsy-proven (n = 9). Histogram analysis was performed for all lesions to provide the mean attenuation value and percentage of negative pixels. RESULTS: All lipid-rich adenomas had more than 10% negative pixels; 51.6% of lipid-poor adenomas had more than 10% negative pixels and would have been classified as indeterminate nodules on the basis of mean attenuation alone. None of the metastases had more than 10% negative pixels. Using an unenhanced CT mean attenuation threshold of less than 10 H yielded a sensitivity of 68% and specificity of 100% for the diagnosis of an adenoma. Using an unenhanced CT threshold of more than 10% negative pixels yielded a sensitivity of 84% and specificity of 100% for the diagnosis of an adenoma. CONCLUSION: CT histogram analysis is superior to mean CT attenuation analysis for the evaluation of adrenal nodules and may help decrease referrals for additional imaging or biopsy.

Psychologic factors are related to some sensory pain thresholds but not nociceptive flexion reflex threshold in chronic whiplash

OBJECTIVES: Sensory hypersensitivity, central hyperexcitability [lowered nociceptive flexion reflex (NFR) thresholds], and psychologic distress are features of chronic whiplash. However, relationships between these substrates are not clear. This study tested the hypothesis that psychologic distress and catastrophization are correlated with sensory hypersensitivity and NFR responses in chronic whiplash. METHODS: Pressure and thermal pain thresholds (mean values across 3 body sites), NFR threshold, and pain at threshold Visual Analog Scale were measured in 30 participants with chronic whiplash and 30 asymptomatic controls. Pain and disability levels Neck Disability Index, psychologic distress (GHQ-28), and catastrophization (PCS) were also measured in the whiplash group. RESULTS: Whiplash injured participants demonstrated lowered pain thresholds to pressure and cold (P<0.05); lowered NFR thresholds (P=0.003), and demonstrated above threshold levels of psychologic distress (GHQ-28) and levels of catastrophization comparable with other musculoskeletal conditions. There were no group differences for heat pain thresholds or pain at NFR threshold. In the whiplash group, PCS scores correlated moderately with cold pain threshold (r=0.51, P=0.01). In contrast, there were no significant correlations between GHQ-28 scores and pain threshold measures or between psychologic factors and NFR responses in whiplash participants. There were no significant correlations between psychologic factors and pain thresholds or NFR responses in controls. DISCUSSION: We have demonstrated that psychologic factors have some association with sensory hypersensitivity (cold pain threshold measures) in chronic whiplash but do not seem to influence spinal cord excitability. This suggests that psychologic disorders are important, but not the only, determinants of central hypersensitivity in whiplash patients.

Methodological approach to the first and second lactate threshold in incremental cardiopulmonary exercise testing

Determination of an 'anaerobic threshold' plays an important role in the appreciation of an incremental cardiopulmonary exercise test and describes prominent changes of blood lactate accumulation with increasing workload. Two lactate thresholds are discerned during cardiopulmonary exercise testing and used for physical fitness estimation or training prescription. A multitude of different terms are, however, found in the literature describing the two thresholds. Furthermore, the term 'anaerobic threshold' is synonymously used for both, the 'first' and the 'second' lactate threshold, bearing a great potential of confusion. The aim of this review is therefore to order terms, present threshold concepts, and describe methods for lactate threshold determination using a three-phase model with reference to the historical and physiological background to facilitate the practical application of the term 'anaerobic threshold'.

Are full or empty beer bottles sturdier and does their fracture-threshold suffice to break the human skull?

Beer bottles are often used in physical disputes. If the bottles break, they may give rise to sharp trauma. However, if the bottles remain intact, they may cause blunt injuries. In order to investigate whether full or empty standard half-litre beer bottles are sturdier and if the necessary breaking energy surpasses the minimum fracture-threshold of the human skull, we tested the fracture properties of such beer bottles in a drop-tower. Full bottles broke at 30 J impact energy, empty bottles at 40 J. These breaking energies surpass the minimum fracture-threshold of the human neurocranium. Beer bottles may therefore fracture the human skull and therefore serve as dangerous instruments in a physical dispute.

Income Insecurity and Youth Emancipation: A Theoretical Approach

n this paper, we propose a theoretical model to study the effect of income insecurity of parents and offspring on the child's residential choice. Parents are partially altruistic toward their children and will provide financial help to an independent child when her income is low relative to the parents'. We find that children of more altruistic parents are more likely to become independent. However, first-order stochastic dominance (FOSD) shifts in the distribution of the child's future income (or her parents') have ambiguous effects on the child's residential choice. Parental altruism is the very source of ambiguity in the results. If parents are selfish or the joint income distribution of parents and child places no mass on the region where transfers are provided, a FOSD shift in the distribution of the child's (parents') future income will reduce (raise) the child's current income threshold for independence.