Using Bayesian methods for the estimation of uncertainty in complex statistical models

The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

Importance of soil ecology in vegetation rehabilitation on a North Stradbroke Island sand mine

Sibelco Australia Limited (SAL), a mineral sand mining operation on North Stradbroke Island, undertakes progressive rehabilitation of mined areas. Initial investigations have found that some areas at SAL’s Yarraman Mine have failed to redevelop towards approved criteria. This study, undertaken in 2010, examined ground cover rehabilitation of different aged plots at the Yarraman Mine to determine if there was a relationship between key soil and vegetation attributes. Vegetation and soil data were collected from five plots rehabilitated in 2003, 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2010, and one unmined plot. Cluster (PATN) analysis revealed that vegetation species composition, species richness and ground cover differed between plots. Principal component analysis (PCA) extracted ten soil attributes that were then correlated with vegetation data. The attributes extracted by PCA, in order of most common variance, were: water content, pH, terrolas depth, elevation, slope angle, leaf litter depth, total organic carbon, and counts of macrofauna, fungi and bacteria. All extracted attributes differed between plots, and all except bacteria correlated with at least one vegetation attribute. Water content and pH correlated most strongly with vegetation cover suggesting an increase in soil moisture and a reduction in pH are required in order to improve vegetation rehabilitation at Yarraman Mine. Further study is recommended to confirm these results using controlled experiments and to test potential solutions, such as organic amendments.

Brisbane Airport Atelier : Team Delta

This architectural and urban design project was conducted as part of the Brisbane Airport Corporations master-planning Atelier, run in conjunction with City Lab. This creation and innovation event brought together approximately 80 designers, associated professionals, and both local and state government representatives to research concepts for future development and planning of the Brisbane airport site. The Team Delta research project explored the development of a new precinct cluster around the existing international terminal building; with a view of reinforcing the sense of place and arrival. The development zone explores the options of developing a subtropical character through landscape elements such as open plazas, tourist attractions, links to existing adjacent waterways, and localised rapid transport options. The proposal tests the possibilities of developing a cultural hub in conjunction with transport infrastructure and the airport terminal(s).

Russian wheat aphids (Diuraphis noxia) in China : native range expansion or recent introduction?

In this study, we explore the population genetics of the Russian wheat aphid (RWA) (Diuraphis noxia), one of the world’s most invasive agricultural pests, in north-western China. We have analysed the data of 10 microsatellite loci and mitochondrial sequences from 27 populations sampled over 2 years in China. The results confirm that the RWAs are holocyclic in China with high genetic diversity indicating widespread sexual reproduction. Distinct differences in microsatellite genetic diversity and distribution revealed clear geographic isolation between RWA populations in northern and southern Xinjiang, China, with gene flow interrupted across extensive desert regions. Despite frequent grain transportation from north to south in this region, little evidence for RWA translocation as a result of human agricultural activities was found. Consequently, frequent gene flow among northern populations most likely resulted from natural dispersal, potentially facilitated by wind currents. We also found evidence for the longterm existence and expansion of RWAs in China, despite local opinion that it is an exotic species only present in China since 1975. Our estimated date of RWA expansion throughout China coincides with the debut of wheat domestication and cultivation practices in western Asia in the Holocene. We conclude that western China represents the limit of the far eastern native range of this species. This study is the most comprehensive molecular genetic investigation of the RWA in its native range undertaken to date and provides valuable insights into the history of the association of this aphid with domesticated cereals and wild grasses.

Fashion, the body and technology : tracing early 20th century techno-utopian ideas, aesthetics and impulses in 21st century wearable technology

‘Wearable technology’, or the use of specialist technology in garments, is promoted by the electronics industry as the next frontier of fashion. However the story of wearable technology’s relationship with fashion begins neither with the development of miniaturised computers in the 1970s nor with sophisticated ‘smart textiles’ of the twenty-first century, despite what much of the rhetoric suggests. This study examines wearable technology against a longer history of fashion, highlighted by the influential techno-sartorial experiments of a group of early twentieth century avant-gardes including Italian Futurists Giacomo Balla and F.T. Marinetti, Russian Constructivists Varvara Stepanova and Liubov Popova, and Paris-based Cubist, Sonia Delaunay. Through the interdisciplinary framework of fashion studies, the thesis provides a fuller picture of wearable technology framed by the idea of utopia. Using comparative analysis, and applying the theoretical formulations of Fredric Jameson, Louis Marin and Michael Carter, the thesis traces the appearance of three techno-utopian themes from their origins in the machine age experiments of Balla, Marinetti, Stepanova, Popova and Delaunay to their twenty-first century reappearance in a dozen wearable technology projects. By exploring the central thesis that contemporary wearable technology resurrects the techno-utopian ideas and expressions of the early twentieth century, the study concludes that the abiding utopian impetus to embed technology in the aesthetics (prints, silhouettes, and fabrication) and functionality of fashion is to unify subject, society and environment under a totalising technological order.

Managing Work, Hedonism and 'the Borderline' Between the Legal and Illegal Markets: Two Case Studies of Recreational Heavy Drug Users

In the context of cultural and/or differential ‘normalisation’ of certain forms of drug use, this article describes two case-studies of heavy recreational drug users. The daily lives of these users blur the line between the legal and the illegal; their drug trading is generally as a consumer and ‘friend of a friend’ small dealer in the low-level market. In the first case, problems with management of employment, time and financial budgeting are described; in the second case, such management is accomplished. Discussion refers to: differences between the two in relation to resources and vulnerability to risks, and to leisure/pleasure cultures of hedonism. The research agenda should pay more attention to users who seek to maintain a legitimate lifestyle but who develop problems managing work and their drug-related leisure. Understanding the consumer demand and dealing activity of such users is important in trying to develop a fuller understanding of drug markets.

The Reading lesson

Drawing on the work of Ian Hunter the authors argue that literary education continues a tradition of circularity of argument derived from the humanities. They propose that the school subject, English in all of its apparently different historical manifestations focuses on the ideals of self-discovery and freedom of expression through literary study. The idea that literary interpretation or the production of specific readings is a skill that is taught in English classrooms challenges traditional understandings of literary study as a means for uncovering or revealing that which is hidden – be it the secrets of the text (or society or culture) or the secrets of the self – in order to come to a fuller realisation of culture and the self. Using examples from their previous work in developing activities for use with students in English classrooms the authors explore what it means to produce one’s ‘own reading’ of a text.

Phantom Scatter and the A-SI EPID

Introduction: The use of amorphous-silicon electronic portal imaging devices (a-Si EPIDs) for dosimetry is complicated by the effects of scattered radiation. In photon radiotherapy, primary signal at the detector can be accompanied by photons scattered from linear accelerator components, detector materials, intervening air, treatment room surfaces (floor, walls, etc) and from the patient/phantom being irradiated. Consequently, EPID measurements which presume to take scatter into account are highly sensitive to the identification of these contributions. One example of this susceptibility is the process of calibrating an EPID for use as a gauge of (radiological) thickness, where specific allowance must be made for the effect of phantom-scatter on the intensity of radiation measured through different thicknesses of phantom. This is usually done via a theoretical calculation which assumes that phantom scatter is linearly related to thickness and field-size. We have, however, undertaken a more detailed study of the scattering effects of fields of different dimensions when applied to phantoms of various thicknesses in order to derive scattered-primary ratios (SPRs) directly from simulation results. This allows us to make a more-accurate calibration of the EPID, and to qualify the appositeness of the theoretical SPR calculations. Methods: This study uses a full MC model of the entire linac-phantom-detector system simulated using EGSnrc/BEAMnrc codes. The Elekta linac and EPID are modelled according to specifications from the manufacturer and the intervening phantoms are modelled as rectilinear blocks of water or plastic, with their densities set to a range of physically realistic and unrealistic values. Transmissions through these various phantoms are calculated using the dose detected in the model EPID and used in an evaluation of the field-size-dependence of SPR, in different media, applying a method suggested for experimental systems by Swindell and Evans [1]. These results are compared firstly with SPRs calculated using the theoretical, linear relationship between SPR and irradiated volume, and secondly with SPRs evaluated from our own experimental data. An alternate evaluation of the SPR in each simulated system is also made by modifying the BEAMnrc user code READPHSP, to identify and count those particles in a given plane of the system that have undergone a scattering event. In addition to these simulations, which are designed to closely replicate the experimental setup, we also used MC models to examine the effects of varying the setup in experimentally challenging ways (changing the size of the air gap between the phantom and the EPID, changing the longitudinal position of the EPID itself). Experimental measurements used in this study were made using an Elekta Precise linear accelerator, operating at 6MV, with an Elekta iView GT a-Si EPID. Results and Discussion: 1. Comparison with theory: With the Elekta iView EPID fixed at 160 cm from the photon source, the phantoms, when positioned isocentrically, are located 41 to 55 cm from the surface of the panel. At this geometry, a close but imperfect agreement (differing by up to 5%) can be identified between the results of the simulations and the theoretical calculations. However, this agreement can be totally disrupted by shifting the phantom out of the isocentric position. Evidently, the allowance made for source-phantom-detector geometry by the theoretical expression for SPR is inadequate to describe the effect that phantom proximity can have on measurements made using an (infamously low-energy sensitive) a-Si EPID. 2. Comparison with experiment: For various square field sizes and across the range of phantom thicknesses, there is good agreement between simulation data and experimental measurements of the transmissions and the derived values of the primary intensities. However, the values of SPR obtained through these simulations and measurements seem to be much more sensitive to slight differences between the simulated and real systems, leading to difficulties in producing a simulated system which adequately replicates the experimental data. (For instance, small changes to simulated phantom density make large differences to resulting SPR.) 3. Comparison with direct calculation: By developing a method for directly counting the number scattered particles reaching the detector after passing through the various isocentric phantom thicknesses, we show that the experimental method discussed above is providing a good measure of the actual degree of scattering produced by the phantom. This calculation also permits the analysis of the scattering sources/sinks within the linac and EPID, as well as the phantom and intervening air. Conclusions: This work challenges the assumption that scatter to and within an EPID can be accounted for using a simple, linear model. Simulations discussed here are intended to contribute to a fuller understanding of the contribution of scattered radiation to the EPID images that are used in dosimetry calculations. Acknowledgements: This work is funded by the NHMRC, through a project grant, and supported by the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) and the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia. The authors are also grateful to Elekta for the provision of manufacturing specifications which permitted the detailed simulation of their linear accelerators and amorphous-silicon electronic portal imaging devices. Computational resources and services used in this work were provided by the HPC and Research Support Group, QUT, Brisbane, Australia.

Semi-parametric forecasting of spikes in electricity prices

The occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price of electricity represents a significant source of risk to retailers. A range of approaches have been considered with respect to modelling electricity prices; these models, however, have relied on time-series approaches, which typically use restrictive decay schemes placing greater weight on more recent observations. This study develops an alternative, semi-parametric method for forecasting, which uses state-dependent weights derived from a kernel function. The forecasts that are obtained using this method are accurate and therefore potentially useful to electricity retailers in terms of risk management.

Toward understanding social engineering

There is no doubt that social engineering plays a vital role in compromising most security defenses, and in attacks on people, organizations, companies, or even governments. It is the art of deceiving and tricking people to reveal critical information or to perform an action that benefits the attacker in some way. Fraudulent and deceptive people have been using social engineering traps and tactics using information technology such as e-mails, social networks, web sites, and applications to trick victims into obeying them, accepting threats, and falling victim to various crimes and attacks such as phishing, sexual abuse, financial abuse, identity theft, impersonation, physical crime, and many other forms of attack. Although organizations, researchers, practitioners, and lawyers recognize the severe risk of social engineering-based threats, there is a severe lack of understanding and controlling of such threats. One side of the problem is perhaps the unclear concept of social engineering as well as the complexity of understand human behaviors in behaving toward, approaching, accepting, and failing to recognize threats or the deception behind them. The aim of this paper is to explain the definition of social engineering based on the related theories of the many related disciplines such as psychology, sociology, information technology, marketing, and behaviourism. We hope, by this work, to help researchers, practitioners, lawyers, and other decision makers to get a fuller picture of social engineering and, therefore, to open new directions of collaboration toward detecting and controlling it.

The mitochondrial genome of the Russian wheat aphid Diuraphis noxia : large repetitive sequences between trnE and trnF in aphids

To characterize aphid mitochondrial genome (mitogenome) features, we sequenced the complete mitogenome of the Russian wheat aphid, Diuraphis noxia. The 15,784-bp mitogenome with a high A + T content (84.76%) and strong C skew (− 0.26) was arranged in the same gene order as that of the ancestral insect. Unlike typical insect mitogenomes, D. noxia possessed a large tandem repeat region (644 bp) located between trnE and trnF. Sequencing partial mitogenome of the cotton aphid (Aphis gossypii) further confirmed the presence of the large repeat region in aphids, but with different repeat length and copy number. Another motif (58 bp) tandemly repeated 2.3 times in the control region of D. noxia. All repeat units in D. noxia could be folded into stem-loop secondary structures, which could further promote an increase in copy numbers. Characterization of the D. noxia mitogenome revealed distinct mitogenome architectures, thus advancing our understanding of insect mitogenomic diversities and evolution.

Feral pig populations are structured at fine spatial scales in tropical Queensland, Australia

Feral pigs occur throughout tropical far north Queensland, Australia and are a significant threat to biodiversity and World Heritage values, agriculture and are a vector of infectious diseases. One of the constraints on long-lasting, local eradication of feral pigs is the process of reinvasion into recently controlled areas. This study examined the population genetic structure of feral pigs in far north Queensland to identify the extent of movement and the scale at which demographically independent management units exist. Genetic analysis of 328 feral pigs from the Innisfail to Tully region of tropical Queensland was undertaken. Seven microsatellite loci were screened and Bayesian clustering methods used to infer population clusters. Sequence variation at the mitochondrial DNA control region was examined to identify pig breed. Significant population structure was identified in the study area at a scale of 25 to 35 km, corresponding to three demographically independent management units (MUs). Distinct natural or anthropogenic barriers were not found, but environmental features such as topography and land use appear to influence patterns of gene flow. Despite the strong, overall pattern of structure, some feral pigs clearly exhibited ancestry from a MU outside of that from which they were sampled indicating isolated long distance dispersal or translocation events. Furthermore, our results suggest that gene flow is restricted among pigs of domestic Asian and European origin and non-random mating influences management unit boundaries. We conclude that the three MUs identified in this study should be considered as operational units for feral pig control in far north Queensland. Within a MU, coordinated and simultaneous control is required across farms, rainforest areas and National Park Estates to prevent recolonisation from adjacent localities.