Phylodynamic modelling of foot-and-mouth disease virus sequence data

The under-reporting of cases of infectious diseases is a substantial impediment to the control and management of infectious diseases in both epidemic and endemic contexts. Information about infectious disease dynamics can be recovered from sequence data using time-varying coalescent approaches, and phylodynamic models have been developed in order to reconstruct demographic changes of the numbers of infected hosts through time. In this study I have demonstrated the general concordance between empirically observed epidemiological incidence data and viral demography inferred through analysis of foot-and-mouth disease virus VP1 coding sequences belonging to the CATHAY topotype over large temporal and spatial scales. However a more precise and robust relationship between the effective population size (

Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Water regimes in the Brazilian Cerrados are sensitive to climatological disturbances and human intervention. The risk that critical water-table levels are exceeded over long periods of time can be estimated by applying stochastic methods in modeling the dynamic relationship between water levels and driving forces such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In this study, a transfer function-noise model, the so called PIRFICT-model, is applied to estimate the dynamic relationship between water-table depth and precipitation surplus/deficit in a watershed with a groundwater monitoring scheme in the Brazilian Cerrados. Critical limits were defined for a period in the Cerrados agricultural calendar, the end of the rainy season, when extremely shallow levels (< 0.5-m depth) can pose a risk to plant health and machinery before harvesting. By simulating time-series models, the risk of exceeding critical thresholds during a continuous period of time (e.g. 10 days) is described by probability levels. These simulated probabilities were interpolated spatially using universal kriging, incorporating information related to the drainage basin from a digital elevation model. The resulting map reduced model uncertainty. Three areas were defined as presenting potential risk at the end of the rainy season. These areas deserve attention with respect to water-management and land-use planning.

Transportation and spatial development : an overview and a future direction

Biomechanical and morphological adaptations in women during pregnancy and the postpartum period in walking

A gravidez é uma fase especial da vida, com diversas alterações nos sistemas hormonais, anatómicos, e na composição corporal da mulher. No entanto, não é claro que alterações biomecânicas tridimensionais ocorrerem. Através do acompanhamento da mulher na gravidez e pós-parto, os objetivos da presente tese foram: 1) determinar os parâmetros temporais e espaciais do ciclo da marcha; 2) descrever a cinemática angular do membro inferior; 3) calcular os momentos e potências articulares do tornozelo, joelho e coxofemoral, utilizando o cálculo por dinâmica inversa; 4) descrever as magnitudes dos picos dos momentos e potências articulares dos membros inferiores; 5) identificar possíveis diferenças entre as fases de recolha relativamente aos parâmetros biomecânicos; 6) descrever longitudinalmente a composição corporal as alterações morfológicas; 7) analisar a influência das alterações antropométricas na cinética articular. Os resultados mostram que as mulheres mantêm os parâmetros temporais e espaciais da marcha. A cinemática angular do membro inferior tem o mesmo padrão, no entanto, a magnitude de alguns picos, especialmente na bacia e coxofemoral durante a fase terminal do apoio, pré-balanço e de balanço, apresentam alterações significativas. A coxofemoral é a articulação com mais alterações na cinética articular, com um aumento da carga interna associada aos momentos articulares da coxofemoral no plano transversal. No entanto, diversos momentos e potências articulares revelam uma diminuição significativa para o final da gravidez e/ou um aumento entre alguns trimestres da gravidez e o pós-parto. Como esperado, a maioria das variáveis associadas à composição corporal e às dimensões corporais tem um aumento significativo durante a gravidez e uma diminuição no pós-parto. Os modelos desenvolvidos para prever a carga interna aplicada ao membro inferior da grávida através de variáveis antropométricas, incluem quatro modelos com variáveis associadas à quantidade de gordura, quatro modelos com variáveis associadas à massa corporal global, três modelos que incluem a massa livre de gordura, e um modelo que inclui a forma do tronco. Os altos valores do R2 ajustado, mostram que as alterações na composição corporal e morfologia, determinam em grande parte a cinética articular da mulher nesta fase particular da vida.

ANALYSIS OF MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITIES IN SEASONAL WETLANDS THROUGH TIME, ACROSS SPACE, AND USING SPECIES TRAITS

Restoration of natural wetlands may be informed by macroinvertebrate community composition. Macroinvertebrate communities of wetlands are influenced by environmental characteristics such as vegetation, soil, hydrology, land use, and isolation. This dissertation explores multiple approaches to the assessment of wetland macroinvertebrate community composition, and demonstrates how these approaches can provide complementary insights into the community ecology of aquatic macroinvertebrates. Specifically, this work focuses on macroinvertebrates of Delmarva Bays, isolated seasonal wetlands found on Maryland’s eastern shore. A comparison of macroinvertebrate community change over a nine years in a restored wetland complex indicated that the macroinvertebrate community of a rehabilitated wetlands more rapidly approximated the community of a reference site than did a newly created wetland. The recovery of a natural macroinvertebrate community in the rehabilitated wetland indicated that wetland rehabilitation should be prioritized over wetland creation and long-term monitoring may be needed to evaluate restoration success. This study also indicated that characteristics of wetland vegetation reflected community composition. The connection between wetland vegetation and macroinvertebrate community composition led to a regional assessment of predaceous diving beetle (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae) community composition in 20 seasonal wetlands, half with and half without sphagnum moss (Sphagnum spp.). Species-level identifications indicated that wetlands with sphagnum support unique and diverse assemblages of beetles. These patterns suggest that sphagnum wetlands provide habitat that supports biodiversity on the Delmarva Peninsula. To compare traits of co-occurring beetles, mandible morphology and temporal and spatial variation were measured between three species of predaceous diving beetles. Based on mandible architecture, all species may consume similarly sized prey, but prey characteristics likely differ in terms of piercing force required for successful capture and consumption. Therefore, different assemblages of aquatic beetles may have different effects on macroinvertebrate community structure. Integrating community-level and species-level data strengthens the association between individual organisms and their ecological role. Effective restoration of imperiled wetlands benefits from this integration, as it informs the management practices that both preserve biodiversity and promote ecosystem services.

Adaptation of motor control to training and disuse : contribution of muscle synergy analysis and movement variability

The well-known degrees of freedom problem originally introduced by Nikolai Bernstein (1967) results from the high abundance of degrees of freedom in the musculoskeletal system. Such abundance in motor control have two sides: i) because it is unlikely that the Central Nervous System controls each degree of freedom independently, the complexity of the control needs to be reduced, and ii) because there are many options to perform a movement, a repetition of a given movement is never the same. It leads to two main topics in motor control and biomechanics: motor coordination and motor variability. The present thesis aimed to understand how motor systems behave and adapt under specific conditions. This thesis comprises three studies that focused on three topics of major interest in the field of sports sciences and medicine: expertise, injury risk and fatigue. The first study (expertise) has focused on the muscle coordination topic to further investigate the effect of expertise on the muscle synergistic organization, which ultimately may represent the underlying neural strategies. Studies 2 (excessive medial knee displacement) and 3 (fatigue) both aimed to better understand its impact on the dynamic local stability. The main findings of the present thesis suggest: 1) there is a great robustness in muscle synergistic organization between swimmers at different levels of expertise (study 1, chapter II), which ultimately indicate that differences in muscle coordination is mainly explained by peripheral adaptations; 2) injury risk factors such as excessive medial knee displacement (study 2, chapter III) and fatigue (study 3, chapter IV) alter the dynamic local stability of the neuromuscular system towards a more unstable state. This change in dynamic local stability represents a loss of adaptability in the neuromuscular system reducing the flexibility to adapt to a perturbation.

Amazon forest structure generates diurnal and seasonal variability in light utilization.

The complex three-dimensional (3-D) structure of tropical forests generates a diversity of light environments for canopy and understory trees. Understanding diurnal and seasonal changes in light availability is critical for interpreting measurements of net ecosystem exchange and improving ecosystem models. Here, we used the Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) model to simulate leaf absorption of photosynthetically active radiation (lAPAR) for an Amazon forest. The 3-D model scene was developed from airborne lidar data, and local measurements of leaf reflectance, aerosols, and PAR were used to model lAPAR under direct and diffuse illumination conditions. Simulated lAPAR under clear-sky and cloudy conditions was corrected for light saturation effects to estimate light utilization, the fraction of lAPAR available for photosynthesis. Although the fraction of incoming PAR absorbed by leaves was consistent throughout the year (0.80?0.82), light utilization varied seasonally (0.67?0.74), with minimum values during the Amazon dry season. Shadowing and light saturation effects moderated potential gains in forest productivity from increasing PAR during dry-season months when the diffuse fraction from clouds and aerosols was low. Comparisons between DART and other models highlighted the role of 3-D forest structure to account for seasonal changes in light utilization. Our findings highlight how directional illumination and forest 3-D structure combine to influence diurnal and seasonal variability in light utilization, independent of further changes in leaf area, leaf age, or environmental controls on canopy photosynthesis. Changing illumination geometry constitutes an alternative biophysical explanation for observed seasonality in Amazon forest productivity without changes in canopy phenology.

Geochemical Assessment and Separation of Source Waters in the Upper Boulder River Watershed Near Boulder, MT

Environmental samples were collected at three surface water sites between 5/21/2011 and 11/21/2014 along the Upper Boulder River near Boulder Montana. The sites were located at Bernice (within the mountain block), near the High Ore drainage (near the mountain block/basin transition), and at the USGS Gauging Station near Boulder, Montana (within the basin). The parameters measured in the field were SC, temperature, and alkalinity with occasional pH measurements. We collected samples for anions, cations, and stable isotopes in the catchment. We identified endmembers by sampling snow and groundwater and determined from available data an approximate endmember for rain, snow, and groundwater. We used temporal and spatial variations of water chemistry and isotopes to generate an endmember mixing model. Groundwater was found to always be an important contributor to river flow and could increase by nearly an order of magnitude during large snowmelt events. This resulted in groundwater comprising ~20% of total river flow during snowmelt at all sites. At peak snowmelt we observed that near surface water contributions to the river were from a mixture of rain and snow. Soil water, though not sampled, was hypothesized to be an important part of the hydrologic story. If so, the endmember contributions determined in this study may be different. Groundwater may have the highest variation depending on water chemistry of shallow soil water.

Geographic Provenancing of Unprocessed Cotton Using Elemental Analysis and Stable Isotope Ratios

Cotton is the most abundant natural fiber in the world. Many countries are involved in the growing, importation, exportation and production of this commodity. Paper documentation claiming geographic origin is the current method employed at U.S. ports for identifying cotton sources and enforcing tariffs. Because customs documentation can be easily falsified, it is necessary to develop a robust method for authenticating or refuting the source of the cotton commodities. This work presents, for the first time, a comprehensive approach to the chemical characterization of unprocessed cotton in order to provide an independent tool to establish geographic origin. Elemental and stable isotope ratio analysis of unprocessed cotton provides a means to increase the ability to distinguish cotton in addition to any physical and morphological examinations that could be, and are currently performed. Elemental analysis has been conducted using LA-ICP-MS, LA-ICP-OES and LIBS in order to offer a direct comparison of the analytical performance of each technique and determine the utility of each technique for this purpose. Multivariate predictive modeling approaches are used to determine the potential of elemental and stable isotopic information to aide in the geographic provenancing of unprocessed cotton of both domestic and foreign origin. These approaches assess the stability of the profiles to temporal and spatial variation to determine the feasibility of this application. This dissertation also evaluates plasma conditions and ablation processes so as to improve the quality of analytical measurements made using atomic emission spectroscopy techniques. These interactions, in LIBS particularly, are assessed to determine any potential simplification of the instrumental design and method development phases. This is accomplished through the analysis of several matrices representing different physical substrates to determine the potential of adopting universal LIBS parameters for 532 nm and 1064 nm LIBS for some important operating parameters. A novel approach to evaluate both ablation processes and plasma conditions using a single measurement was developed and utilized to determine the “useful ablation efficiency” for different materials. The work presented here demonstrates the potential for an a priori prediction of some probable laser parameters important in analytical LIBS measurement.

Water Demand and Allocation in the Mara River Basin, Kenya/Tanzania in the Face of Land Use Dynamics and Climate Variability

The Mara River Basin (MRB) is endowed with pristine biodiversity, socio-cultural heritage and natural resources. The purpose of my study is to develop and apply an integrated water resource allocation framework for the MRB based on the hydrological processes, water demand and economic factors. The basin was partitioned into twelve sub-basins and the rainfall runoff processes was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) after satisfactory Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.68 for calibration and 0.43 for validation at Mara Mines station. The impact and uncertainty of climate change on the hydrology of the MRB was assessed using SWAT and three scenarios of statistically downscaled outputs from twenty Global Circulation Models. Results predicted the wet season getting more wet and the dry season getting drier, with a general increasing trend of annual rainfall through 2050. Three blocks of water demand (environmental, normal and flood) were estimated from consumptive water use by human, wildlife, livestock, tourism, irrigation and industry. Water demand projections suggest human consumption is expected to surpass irrigation as the highest water demand sector by 2030. Monthly volume of water was estimated in three blocks of current minimum reliability, reserve (>95%), normal (80–95%) and flood (40%) for more than 5 months in a year. The assessment of water price and marginal productivity showed that current water use hardly responds to a change in price or productivity of water. Finally, a water allocation model was developed and applied to investigate the optimum monthly allocation among sectors and sub-basins by maximizing the use value and hydrological reliability of water. Model results demonstrated that the status on reserve and normal volumes can be improved to ‘low’ or ‘moderate’ by updating the existing reliability to meet prevailing demand. Flow volumes and rates for four scenarios of reliability were presented. Results showed that the water allocation framework can be used as comprehensive tool in the management of MRB, and possibly be extended similar watersheds.

An assessment of catches and harvest of recreational shore angling in the north of Portugal

Recreational shore angling in the Atlantic Ocean between Moledo and Aveiro (Portugal) was examined using roving creel surveys (March/September 2001). Cooperation was high (90% of 2310 anglers approached). At least 39 species of fish were caught at a rate of approximately 0.5 fish angler h(-1). An estimated 7319 kg of Dicentrarchus labrax (L.), with 45.6% below the minimum legal size, and 2040 kg of sea breams (genus Diplodus), correspond to 5.75% and 1.19% of the commercial landings in the same geographical area, respectively. The results shed light on a number of issues relevant to integrated coastal management, including temporal and spatial distribution of fishing effort, species caught, sizes of fish, catch rates, and factors influencing catches and angler satisfaction. Whilst the results suggest that the catches of sea breams and sea bass by day-time recreational shore angling in northern Portugal are small compared with commercial fishing, other recreational activities, such as boat fishing and spear-fishing, must be assessed.

The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease at the wildlife-livestock interface in northern Tanzania

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.

Relative importance of environment, human activity and spatial situation in determining the distribution of terrestrial mammal diversity in Argentina

We recorded the number of terrestrial mammal species in each Argentinian province, and the number of species belonging to particular groups (Marsupialia, Placentaria, and among the latter, Xenarthra, Carnivora, Ungulates and Rodentia). We performed multiple regressions of each group’s SR on environmental, human and spatial variables, to determine the amounts of variation explained by these factors. We then used a variance partitioning procedure to specify which proportion of the variation in SR is explained by each of the three factors exclusively and which proportions are attributable to interactions between factors.

Annual Average Value of Solar Radiation and its Variability in Portugal

Solar resource assessment is essential for the different phases of solar energy projects, such as preliminary design engineering, financing including due diligence and, later, insurance phases. An important aspect is the long term resource estimation. This kind of estimation can only be obtained through the statistical analysis of long-term data series of solar radiation measurements, preferably ground measurements. This paper is a first step in this direction, with an initial statistical analysis performed over the radiation data from a national measurement network, consisting of eighty-nine meteorological stations. These preliminary results are presented in figures that represent the annual average values of Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) and its Variability in the Portuguese continental territory. These results show that the South of Portugal is the most suitable area for the implementation of medium to large scale solar plants.

Assessment of environment, land management, and spatial variables on recent changes in montado land cover in southern Portugal

Montado decline has been reported since the end of the nineteenth century in southern Portugal and increased markedly during the 1980s. Consensual reports in the literature suggest that this decline is due to a number of factors, such as environmental constraints, forest diseases, inappropriate management, and socioeconomic issues. An assessment on the pattern of montado distribution was conducted to reveal how the extent of land management, environmental variables, and spatial factors contributed to montado area loss in southern Portugal from 1990 to 2006. A total of 14 independent variables, presumably related to montado loss, were grouped into three sets: environmental variables, land management variables, and spatial variables. From 1990 to 2006, approximately 90,054 ha disappeared in the montado area, with an estimated annual regression rate of 0.14 % year-1. Variation partitioning showed that the land management model accounted for the highest percentage of explained variance (51.8 %), followed by spatial factors (44.6 %) and environmental factors (35.5 %). These results indicate that most variance in the large-scale distribution of recent montado loss is due to land management, either alone or in combination with environmental and spatial factors. The full GAM model showed that different livestock grazing is one of the most important variables affecting montado loss. This suggests that optimum carrying capacity should decrease to 0.18–0.60 LU ha-1 for livestock grazing in montado under current ecological conditions in southern Portugal.