Full Cups, Full Coffers: Tax Strategies and Consumer Culture in the Early Modern German Cities

During the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, the excise taxes (Ungeld) paid by town residents on the consumption of beer, wine, mead and brandy represented the single most important source of civic revenue for many German cities. In a crisis, these taxes could spike to 70–80% of civic income. This paper examines civic budgets and ‘behind-the-scenes’ deliberations in a sample of towns in southern Germany in order to illuminate how decisions affecting consumer taxes were made. Even during the sobriety movements of the Reformation and post-Reformation period, tax income from drinkers remained attractive to city leaders because the bulk of the excise tax burden could easily be shifted away from privileged members of society and placed on the population at large. At the same time, governments had to maintain a careful balance between what they needed in order to govern and what the consumer market could bear, for high taxes on drinks were also targeted in many popular revolts. This led to nimble politicking by those responsible for tax decisions. Drink taxes were introduced, raised, lowered and otherwise manipulated based not only on shifting fashions and tastes but also on the degree of economic stress faced by the community. Where civic rulers were successful in striking the right balance, the rewards were considerable. The income from drink sales was a major factor in how the cities of the Empire survived the wars and other crises of the early modern period without going into so much debt that they lost their independence.

A Natural Gas Severance Tax-An Economic Analysis

This study estimates the economic effects of a severance tax on the market for natural gas produced from shale sources using non-conventional extraction methods, such as horizontal drilling and fracking. Results suggest that a severance tax of 5% would increase the price of natural gas by as much as 3.82% and decrease gas extraction by an estimated 1.16% to a value of 9.52%. If applied to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania in the United States, a 5% severance tax is estimated to raise between US$443 and $486 million per year in public revenue. The marginal deadweight loss associated with a 5% severance tax is estimated between 1.27% and 12.85% of the last dollar earned. The burden of this tax falls on both producers and consumers and depends upon the underlying assumptions made regarding the price responsiveness of consumers and producers. Under plausible assumptions, a family consuming 1000 MMcfs (approximate to 2.8 x 10(4) m(3)) per year of natural gas is estimated to pay an additional $100 per year after the implementation of a 5% severance tax.

Poverty in Slovenia: A Conseqence of Economic Transition

Slovenia is considered to be one of the most successful Central and Eastern European countries undergoing the process of transition. It has a high GDP per capita (the highest in the Visegrad group) amounting to about 7200 US dollars (at the exchange rates pertaining during Ms. Stropnik's research). In 1994, a low rate of inflation, a low level of public debt and almost balanced public finances, were all positive elements. However, there is a darker side, for instance the dramatic increase in unemployment and (somewhat less dramatic) fall in production during the transition period. This analysis aimed to provide insights into what is actually happening at the household level, since households are the ultimate bearers of macroeconomic and social change. The final output totalled 166 pages in English and Slovenian, available also on disc. The income concept used by Ms. Stropnik is that of the disposable (monetary) household income, i.e. the cash income of all household members - including social security transfers and family benefits, and the net sum of taxes and social security contributions - plus the equivalent of domestic production, used in the household. Non-monetary income sources, such as household own production, benefits in kind, subsidies for goods and services, and fringe benefits, were not taken into account. The concept of relative and objective poverty was followed. Poverty means having less than others in society, it is a state of relative deprivation. Objective aspects of the situation, e.g. command over resources (i.e. the household income) and the relative position of the household in the income distribution, determine who is poor and who is not. Changes in household composition - an increase in the number of pensioners, unemployed and self-employed, concomitant with a large decrease in the number of employees - obviously played a part in the changing structure of household income sources during this period. The overall decrease in the share of wages and salaries from primary employment in 1993 is to be observed in all income deciles. On the other hand, the importance of salaries gained from secondary employment has increased in all deciles. The lower seven deciles experienced a sharp rise in the share of social benefits in the period 1988-1993, mostly because of the increase in the number of persons entitled to claim unemployment benefits. In Slovenia, income inequality has increased considerably during the 1988-1993 period. To make matters worse, the large increase in income inequality occurred in a period of falling real incomes. In 1983 the bottom decile disposed of 3.8 percent and the top decile disposed of 23.4 percent of total monetary income in Slovenia, whereas by 1993 the same statistics revealed 3.1 percent and 18.9 percent respectively. Unemployment greatly increases the risk of living in poverty. In 1993, 35 per cent of all unemployed persons in Slovenia were living in the lowest income quintile. Ms. Stropnik found certain features that were specific to Slovenia and not shared by most countries in transition. For example, the relative income position of pensioners has improved. Retirement did not increase the risk of poverty in 1993 as much as it did in 1983 and 1988. Also, it appears that children have not been particularly hard-hit by the transition upheavals. The incidence of poverty amongst children has not increased in the period 1983-1993. Children were also fairly evenly distributed across income quintiles. In 1983, 11.8 percent of households with children aged 18 or less were poor. In 1993, this figure was 8.4 per cent. On the other hand, poor households with children were, in comparison with other households of the same type, poorer in 1993 than in 1983. Ms. Stropnik also analysed the impact of social transfers. Her conclusion was that the level of social transfers prevented them from being successful in alleviating poverty. Family policy transfers (child allowances, child tax allowances, subsidised child care) did, however, contribute to the lowering of income inequality between families with and without children, and amongst families with different numbers of children. Ms. Stropnik is determined that the results of her research be used in the creation of social policy aimed at helping the poor. She quotes Piachaud approvingly: "If the term 'poverty' carries with it the implication and moral imperative that something should be done about it, then the study of poverty is only ultimately justifiable if it influences individual and social attitudes and actions."

Incidence of Neospora caninum and other intestinal protozoan parasites in populations of Swiss dogs

The protozoan parasite Neospora caninum is one of the most important abortifacient organisms in cattle worldwide. The dog is known to act as definitive host although its potential role as infection source for bovines still remains unelucidated. The aim of the present study was to compile initial epidemiological data on the prevalence and incidence of N. caninum in Swiss dogs acting as definitive hosts. Thus, 249 Swiss dogs were investigated coproscopically in monthly intervals over a period of 1 year. A total of 3289 fecal samples was tested by the flotation technique. Among these, 202 were shown to contain Sarcocystis sp. (6.1%), 149 Cystoisospora sp. (=Isospora sp.; 4.5%) and 25 Hammondia/Neospora-like oocysts (HNlO) (0.7%). All but one sample containing HNlO were from different dogs; one dog shed HNlO at two subsequent time points. Calculation of the yearly incidence for HNlO resulted in the surprisingly high value of 9.2%. Farm dogs exhibited a higher incidence for HNlO than urban family dogs. Thirteen out of the 25 HNlO-samples showed sporulation after 5 days incubation at room temperature. HNlO were further differentiated by species-specific PCR. However, all HNlO-samples were negative for N. caninum, Hammondia heydorni and Toxoplasma gondii. One reason may be the low oocyst density found in most fecal samples, which did not permit us to carry out PCR under optimal conditions. Three out of the 25 HNlO-cases contained enough oocysts to allow further enrichment and purification by the flotation technique. Subsequently, twenty to fifty sporulated HNlO-oocysts were orally administered to Meriones unguiculatus. All gerbils were seronegative for N. caninum at 5 weeks p.i. A N. caninum-seroprevalence of 7.8% was determined by ELISA upon 1132 serum samples collected from dogs randomly selected by veterinarians among their clinical patients.

Reducing tuberculosis incidence by tuberculin skin testing, preventive treatment, and antiretroviral therapy in an area of low tuberculosis transmission

BACKGROUND: Tuberculin skin testing (TST) and preventive treatment of tuberculosis (TB) are recommended for all persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We aimed to assess the effect of TST and preventive treatment of TB on the incidence of TB in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy in an area with low rates of TB transmission. METHODS: We calculated the incidence of TB among participants who entered the Swiss HIV Cohort Study after 1995, and we studied the associations of TST results, epidemiological and laboratory markers, preventive TB treatment, and combination antiretroviral therapy with TB incidence. RESULTS: Of 6160 participants, 142 (2.3%) had a history of TB at study entry, and 56 (0.91%) developed TB during a total follow-up period of 25,462 person-years, corresponding to an incidence of 0.22 cases per 100 person-years. TST was performed for 69% of patients; 9.4% of patients tested had positive results (induration > or = 5 mm in diameter). Among patients with positive TST results, TB incidence was 1.6 cases per 100 person-years if preventive treatment was withheld, but none of the 193 patients who received preventive treatment developed TB. Positive TST results (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 11-57), missing TST results (HR, 12; 95% CI, 4.8-20), origin from sub-Saharan Africa (HR, 5.8; 95% CI, 2.7-12.5), low CD4+ cell counts, and high plasma HIV RNA levels were associated with an increased risk of TB, whereas the risk was reduced among persons receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.2-0.8). CONCLUSION: Screening for latent TB using TST and administering preventive treatment for patients with positive TST results is an efficacious strategy to reduce TB incidence in areas with low rates of TB transmission. Combination antiretroviral therapy reduces the incidence of TB.

Impact of weather and climate on the incidence of acute coronary syndromes

BACKGROUND: First investigations of the interactions between weather and the incidence of acute myocardial infarctions date back to 1938. The early observation of a higher incidence of myocardial infarctions in the cold season could be confirmed in very different geographical regions and cohorts. While the influence of seasonal variations on the incidence of myocardial infarctions has been extensively documented, the impact of individual meteorological parameters on the disease has so far not been investigated systematically. Hence the present study intended to assess the impact of the essential variables of weather and climate on the incidence of myocardial infarctions. METHODS: The daily incidence of myocardial infarctions was calculated from a national hospitalization survey. The hourly weather and climate data were provided by the database of the national weather forecast. The epidemiological and meteorological data were correlated by multivariate analysis based on a generalized linear model assuming a log-link-function and a Poisson distribution. RESULTS: High ambient pressure, high pressure gradients, and heavy wind activity were associated with an increase in the incidence of the totally 6560 hospitalizations for myocardial infarction irrespective of the geographical region. Snow- and rainfall had inconsistent effects. Temperature, Foehn, and lightning showed no statistically significant impact. CONCLUSIONS: Ambient pressure, pressure gradient, and wind activity had a statistical impact on the incidence of myocardial infarctions in Switzerland from 1990 to 1994. To establish a cause-and-effect relationship more data are needed on the interaction between the pathophysiological mechanisms of the acute coronary syndrome and weather and climate variables.

Prospective genetic screening decreases the incidence of abacavir hypersensitivity reactions in the Western Australian HIV cohort study

Abacavir therapy is associated with significant drug hypersensitivity in approximately 8% of recipients, with retrospective studies indicating a strong genetic association with the HLA-B*5701 allele. In this prospective study, involving 260 abacavir-naive individuals (7.7% of whom were positive for HLA-B*5701), we confirm the usefulness of genetic risk stratification, with no cases of abacavir hypersensitivity among 148 HLA-B*5701-negative recipients.

Prevalence, incidence and distribution of erosion

There is some evidence that the presence of erosion is growing steadily. Because of different scoring systems, samples and examiners, it is difficult to compare and judge the outcome of the studies. Preschool children aged between 2 and 5 years showed erosion on deciduous teeth in 6-50% of the subjects. Young schoolchildren (aged 5-9) already had erosive lesions on permanent teeth in 14% of the cases. In the adolescent group (aged between 9 and 17) 11-100% of the young people examined showed signs of erosion. Incidence data (= increase of subjects with erosion) evaluated in three of these studies were 12% over 2 years, 18% over 5 years and 27% over 1.5 years. In adults (aged between 18 and 88), prevalence data ranged between 4 and 82%. Incidence data are scarce; only one study was found and this showed an incidence of 5% for the younger and 18% for the older examined group (= increase of tooth surfaces with erosion). Prevalence data indicated that males had somewhat more erosive tooth wear than females. The distribution of erosion showed a predominance of occlusal surfaces (especially mandibular first molars), followed by facial surfaces (anterior maxillary teeth). Oral erosion was frequently found on maxillary incisors and canines. Overall, prevalence data are not homogeneous. Nevertheless, there is already a trend for more pronounced rate of erosion in younger age groups. Therefore, it is important to detect at-risk patients early to initiate adequate preventive measures.

Incidence of severe reproductive tract complications associated with diagnosed genital chlamydial infection: the Uppsala Women's Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cumulative incidence of severe complications associated with genital chlamydia infection in the general female population. METHODS: The Uppsala Women's Cohort Study was a retrospective population based cohort study in Sweden, linking laboratory, hospital, and population registers. We estimated the cumulative incidence of hospital diagnosed pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancy, and infertility, and used multivariable regression models to estimate hazard ratios according to screening status. RESULTS: We analysed complete data from 43 715 women in Uppsala aged 15-24 years between January 1985 and December 1989. Follow up until the end of 1999 included 709 000 woman years and 3025 events. The cumulative incidence of pelvic inflammatory disease by age 35 years was 3.9% (95% CI 3.7% to 4.0%) overall: 5.6% (4.7% to 6.7%) in women who ever tested positive for chlamydia, 4.0% (3.7% to 4.4%) in those with negative tests, and 2.9% (2.7% to 3.2%) in those who were never screened. The corresponding figures were: for ectopic pregnancy, 2.3% (2.2% to 2.5%) overall, 2.7% (2.1% to 3.5%), 2.0% (1.8% to 2.3%), and 1.9% (1.7% to 2.1%); and for infertility, 4.1% (3.9% to 4.3%) overall, 6.7% (5.7% to 7.9%), 4.7% (4.4% to 5.1%), and 3.1% (2.8% to 3.3%). Low educational attainment was strongly associated with the development of all outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of severe chlamydia associated complications estimated from ours, and other population based studies, was lower than expected. Studies that incorporate data about pelvic inflammatory disease diagnosed in primary care and behavioural risk factors would further improve our understanding of the natural history of chlamydia. Our results provide reassurance for patients, but mean that the benefits of chlamydia screening programmes might have been overestimated.

Tests for Comparing Mark-Specific Hazards and Cumulative Incidence Functions

It is of interest in some applications to determine whether there is a relationship between a hazard rate function (or a cumulative incidence function) and a mark variable which is only observed at uncensored failure times. We develop nonparametric tests for this problem when the mark variable is continuous. Tests are developed for the null hypothesis that the mark-specific hazard rate is independent of the mark versus ordered and two-sided alternatives expressed in terms of mark-specific hazard functions and mark-specific cumulative incidence functions. The test statistics are based on functionals of a bivariate test process equal to a weighted average of differences between a Nelson--Aalen-type estimator of the mark-specific cumulative hazard function and a nonparametric estimator of this function under the null hypothesis. The weight function in the test process can be chosen so that the test statistics are asymptotically distribution-free.Asymptotically correct critical values are obtained through a simple simulation procedure. The testing procedures are shown to perform well in numerical studies, and are illustrated with an AIDS clinical trial example. Specifically, the tests are used to assess if the instantaneous or absolute risk of treatment failure depends on the amount of accumulation of drug resistance mutations in a subject's HIV virus. This assessment helps guide development of anti-HIV therapies that surmount the problem of drug resistance.

The incidence of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura-hemolytic uremic syndrome: all patients, idiopathic patients, and patients with severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency

Summary. Background: Accurate estimates of the incidence of thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) are important to assess the resources required for current treatments as well as to anticipate the need to develop new treatments. Previous estimates have been indirect and have not reported data on patients with ADAMTS-13 deficiency. Objective: To determine the incidence of patients with TTP-hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) in three categories: all patients with clinically suspected TTP-HUS, patients with idiopathic TTP-HUS, and patients with severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency. Methods: Incidence rates were estimated from the Oklahoma TTP-HUS Registry, analyzing all 206 consecutive patients from January 1, 1996 to June 30, 2004 who were treated with plasma exchange for their initial episode of clinically suspected TTP-HUS. ADAMTS-13 activity was measured in 186 (90%) of the 206 patients. Results: The age–sex–race standardized annual incidence rates were 11.29 × 106 (95% CI: 9.70–12.88) for all patients with clinically suspected TTP-HUS; 4.46 × 106 (95% CI: 3.43–5.50) for patients with idiopathic TTP-HUS; and 1.74 × 106 (95% CI: 1.06–2.41) for patients with severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency (<5% activity). In all three categories, the incidence rates were greater for women and for blacks. For patients with severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency, the age–sex standardized incidence rate ratio of blacks to non-blacks was 9.29 (95% CI: 4.33–19.93). Conclusions: Accurate incidence rate estimates for all patients with clinically suspected TTP-HUS, idiopathic TTP-HUS, and TTP associated with severe ADAMTS-13 deficiency have been determined. The greater incidence among women and blacks is comparable with their increased risk for other autoimmune disorders.

[The incidence of Dicrocoelium dendriticum in Emmental]

A cross-sectional field study on the prevalence of Dicrocoelium dendriticum was performed in the Emmental. The study included 211 bovines, 170 equines, 20 ovines, 46 caprines and 23 rabbits (from 119 farms). In addition, laboratory routine diagnostic data obtained from 2.840 animals--all originating from the same area of investigation--were assessed in the same way. The infection extent concerning the different animal species were the following: bovines 46%, equines 12%, ovines 30%, caprines 48% and rabbits 9%. Univariate analyses of baseline epidemiological data identified no significant risk factors, with the exception of the type of stable used. Bovines kept in a modern free ranging stable had a significantly lower chance of infection with D. dendriticum than cattle in conventional tie stalls. The epidemiological data characterizing the area of investigation suggest the following procedure to reduce the problem of dicrocoeliosis: Pasturing animals of all ages should be regularly dewormed (e.g. every six week during pasture) using a compound effective against D. dendriticum. A treatment is especially indicated at the time after pasture in autumn or before housing the animals in winter. In spring, only animals having pastured the year before need to be treated prior to pasture in the new year. However, it is recommended to perform an economic analysis comparing costs of treatment versus putative costs of damage prior to the initiation of a strategic campaign: animal welfare aspects have to be considered. The laboratory routine diagnostic data showed infection extent similar to those of the cross-sectional study: bovines 60%, equines 24%, ovines 26%, caprines 31%, rabbits 32%. Atypical hosts such as dogs and cats exhibited low infection extent (3% and 1%, respectively), rather reflecting a gastro-intestinal passage of parasite eggs ingested by consumption of infected livers or by coprophagy of ruminant faeces.