902 resultados para TIME-TREND ANALYSIS
Resumo:
Variations in the contribution of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), relative to North Pacific Deep Water (NPDW), to the Southern Ocean, are assessed by comparing delta13C records from the mid-depth North Atlantic, deep Southern Ocean, and deep equatorial Pacific Ocean. In general, the relative contribution of NADW was greater during interglaciations than glaciations of the past 550,000 years. An increase in the NADW flux to the Southern Ocean since the last glaciation was proposed to have resulted in higher atmospheric CO2 in the Holocene (Broecker and Peng, 1989, doi:10.1029/GB003i003p00215). Glacial-interglacial variations in the proportion of NADW in the Southern Ocean may have also influenced atmospheric CO2 levels over the past 550,000 years. The greatest relative flux of NADW to the Southern Ocean occurred during interglacial stage 11. Faunal data suggest that the North Atlantic polar front and southern Indian Ocean subtropical convergence zone were located farthest poleward during stage 11. Warmth in these locations and a strong southward flux of NADW during stage 11 may be causally linked by the NADW formation process/warm water return route (Gordon, 1986, doi:10.1029/JC091iC04p05037). Time series analysis indicates that delta13C variations in the deep Southern Ocean occur at the same frequencies as the Earth's orbital variations and are coherent and in phase with delta18O. At most, 50% of the glacial-interglacial delta13C amplitude in the Southern Ocean is due changes in the contribution of NADW. The remainder is probably due to mean ocean delta13C changes.
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Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly, making it vital to understand the importance of different types of sea ice for ice-dependent species such as polar bears Ursus maritimus. In this study we used GPS telemetry (25 polar bear tracks obtained in Svalbard, Norway, during spring) and high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sea-ice data to investigate fine-scale space use by female polar bears. Space use patterns differed according to reproductive state; females with cubs of the year (COYs) had smaller home ranges and used fast-ice areas more frequently than lone females. First-passage time (FPT) analysis revealed that females with COYs displayed significantly longer FPTs near (<10 km) glacier fronts than in other fast-ice areas; lone females also increased their FPTs in such areas, but they also frequently used drifting pack ice. These results clearly demonstrate the importance of fast-ice areas, in particular close to glacier fronts, especially for females with COYs. Access to abundant and predictable prey (ringed seal pups), energy conservation and reluctance to cross large open water areas are possible reasons for the observed patterns. However, glacier fronts are retracting in Svalbard, and declines in land-fast ice have been notable over the past decade. The eventual disappearance of these important habitats might become critical for the survival of polar bear cubs in Svalbard and other regions with similar habitat characteristics. Given the relatively small size of many fast-ice areas in Svalbard, the results observed in this study would not have been revealed using less accurate location data or lower-resolution sea-ice data.
Resumo:
Peat plateaus are widespread at high northern latitudes and are important soil organic carbon reservoirs. A warming climate can cause either increased ground subsidence (thermokarst) resulting in lake formation or increased drainage as the permafrost thaws. A better understanding of spatiotemporal variations in these landforms in relation to climate change is important for predicting the future thawing permafrost carbon feedback. In this study, dynamics in thermokarst lake extent during the last 35-50 years has been quantified through time series analysis of aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images (IKONOS/QuickBird) in three peat plateau complexes, spread out across the northern circumpolar region along a climatic and permafrost gradient. From the mid-1970s until the mid-2000s there has been an increase in mean annual air temperature, winter precipitation, and ground temperature in all three study areas. The two peat plateaus located in the continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones, respectively, where mean annual air temperatures are below -5°C and ground temperatures are -2°C or colder, have experienced small changes in thermokarst lake extent. In the peat plateau located in the sporadic permafrost zone where the mean annual air temperature is around -3°C, and the ground temperature is close to 0°C, lake drainage and infilling with fen vegetation has been extensive and many new thermokarst lakes have formed. In a future progressively warmer and wetter climate permafrost degradation can cause significant impacts on landscape composition and greenhouse gas exchange also in areas with extensive peat plateaus, which presently still experience stable permafrost conditions.
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We examined the use of mercury (Hg) and nitrogen and carbon stable isotopes in teeth of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) from Svalbard as biotracers of temporal changes in Hg pollution exposure between 1964 and 2003. Teeth were regarded as a good matrix of the Hg exposure, and in total 87 teeth of polar bears were analysed. Dental Hg levels ranged from 0.6 to 72.3 ng/g dry weight and increased with age during the first 10 years of life. A decreasing time trend in Hg concentrations was observed over the recent four decades while no temporal changes were found in the stable isotope ratios of nitrogen (d15N) and carbon (d13C). This suggests that the decrease of Hg concentrations over time was more likely due to a lower environmental Hg exposure in this region rather than a shift in the feeding habits of Svalbard polar bears.
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At the western continental margin of the Barents Sea, 75°N, hemipelagic sediments provide a record of Holocene climate change with a time resolution of 10-70 years. Planktic foraminifera counts reveal a very early Holocene thermal optimum 10.7-7.7 kyr BP, with summer sea surface temperatures (SST) of 8°C and a much enhanced West Spitsbergen Current. There was a short cooling between 8.8 and 8.2 kyr BP. In the middle and late Holocene summer, SST dropped to 2.5°-5.0°C, indicative of reduced Atlantic heat advection, except for two short warmings near 2.2 and 1.6 kyr BP. Distinct quasi-periodic spikes of coarse sediment fraction (with large portions of lithic grains, benthic and planktic foraminifera) record cascades of cold, dense winter water down the continental slope as a result of enhanced seasonal sea ice formation and storminess on the Barents shelf over the entire Holocene. The spikes primarily cluster near recurrence intervals of 400-650 and 1000-1350 years, when traced over the entire Holocene, but follow significant 885-/840- and 505-/605-year periodicities in the early Holocene. These non-stationary periodicities mimic the Greenland-[Formula: See Text]Be variability, which is a tracer of solar forcing. Further significant Holocene periodicities of 230, (145) and 93 years come close to the deVries and Gleissberg solar cycles.
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The spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrasses have been studied from the leaf to patch (100 m**2) scales. However, landscape scale (> 100 km**2) seagrass population dynamics are unresolved in seagrass ecology. Previous remote sensing approaches have lacked the temporal or spatial resolution, or ecologically appropriate mapping, to fully address this issue. This paper presents a robust, semi-automated object-based image analysis approach for mapping dominant seagrass species, percentage cover and above ground biomass using a time series of field data and coincident high spatial resolution satellite imagery. The study area was a 142 km**2 shallow, clear water seagrass habitat (the Eastern Banks, Moreton Bay, Australia). Nine data sets acquired between 2004 and 2013 were used to create seagrass species and percentage cover maps through the integration of seagrass photo transect field data, and atmospherically and geometrically corrected high spatial resolution satellite image data (WorldView-2, IKONOS and Quickbird-2) using an object based image analysis approach. Biomass maps were derived using empirical models trained with in-situ above ground biomass data per seagrass species. Maps and summary plots identified inter- and intra-annual variation of seagrass species composition, percentage cover level and above ground biomass. The methods provide a rigorous approach for field and image data collection and pre-processing, a semi-automated approach to extract seagrass species and cover maps and assess accuracy, and the subsequent empirical modelling of seagrass biomass. The resultant maps provide a fundamental data set for understanding landscape scale seagrass dynamics in a shallow water environment. Our findings provide proof of concept for the use of time-series analysis of remotely sensed seagrass products for use in seagrass ecology and management.
Resumo:
We use the oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (white) from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1058 in the subtropical northwestern Atlantic to construct a high-resolution (~800 year) climate record spanning the mid-Pleistocene climate transition (~410 ka to 1350 ka). We investigate whether or not millennial-scale instabilities in the proxy record are associated with the extent of continental glaciation. G. ruber d18O values display high-frequency fluctuations throughout the record, but the amplitude about mean glacial and interglacial d18O values increases at marine isotope stage (MIS) 22 (880 ka) and is highest during MIS 12. These observations support that millennial-scale climate instabilities are associated with ice sheet size. Time series analysis illustrates that these variations have significant concentration of spectral power centered on periods of ~10-12 ka and ~5 ka. The timing of these fluctuations agrees well, or coincides with, the periodicities of the second and fourth harmonics, respectively, of precessional forcing at the equator. An insolation-based origin of the millennial-scale instabilities would be independent of ice volume and explains the presence of these fluctuations before the mid-Pleistocene climate transition as well as during interglacial intervals (e.g., MIS 37 and 17). Because the amplitude of the millennial-scale variations increases during the mid-Pleistocene transition, feedback mechanisms associated with the growth of large, 100-ka-paced, polar ice sheets may be important amplifiers of regional surface water hydrographic changes.
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We report an investigation of the effects of increases in pCO2 on the survival, growth and molecular physiology of the neritic amphipod Gammarus locusta which has a cosmopolitan distribution in estuaries. Amphipods were reared from juvenile to mature adult in laboratory microcosms at three different levels of pH in nominal range 8.1-7.6. Growth rate was estimated from weekly measures of body length. At sexual maturity the amphipods were sacrificed and assayed for changes in the expression of genes coding for a heat shock protein (hsp70 gene) and the metabolic enzyme glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (gapdh gene). The data show that the growth and survival of this species is not significantly impacted by a decrease in sea water pH of up to 0.5 units. Quantitative real-time PCR analysis indicated that there was no significant effect of growth in acidified sea water on the sustained expression of the hsp70 gene. There was a consistent and significant increase in the expression of the gapdh gene at a pH of ~7.5 which, when combined with observations from other workers, suggests that metabolic changes may occur in response to acidification. It is concluded that sensitive assays of tissue physiology and molecular biology should be routinely employed in future studies of the impacts of sea water acidification as subtle effects on the physiology and metabolism of coastal marine species may be overlooked in conventional gross "end-point" studies of organism growth or mortality.
Resumo:
The Mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) was the time when quasi-periodic (? 100 kyr), high-amplitude glacial variability developed in the absence of any significant change in the character of orbital forcing, leading to the establishment of the characteristic pattern of late Pleistocene climate variability. It has long been known that the interval around 900 ka stands out as a critical point of the MPT, when major glaciations started occurring most notably in the northern hemisphere. Here we examine the record of climatic conditions during this significant interval, using high-resolution stable isotope records from benthic and planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core in the North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 306, Site U1313). We have considered the time interval from late in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 23 to MIS 20 (910 to 790 ka). Our data indicate that interglacial MIS 21 was a climatically unstable period and was broken into four interstadial periods, which have been identified and correlated across the North Atlantic region. These extra peaks tend to contradict previous studies that interpreted the MIS 21 variability as consisting essentially of a linear response to cyclical changes in orbital parameters. Cooling events in the surface record during MIS 21 were associated with low benthic carbon isotope excursions, suggesting a coupling between surface temperature changes and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Time series analysis performed on the whole interval indicates that benthic and planktonic oxygen isotopes have significant concentrations of spectral power centered on periods of 10.7 kyr and 6 kyr, which is in agreement with the second and forth harmonic of precession. The excellent correspondence between the foraminifera d18O records and insolation variations at the Equator in March and September suggests that a mechanism related to low-latitude precession variations, advected to the high latitudes by tropical convective processes, might have generated such a response. This scenario accounts for the presence of oscillations at frequencies equal to precession harmonics at Site U1313, as well as the occurrence of higher amplitude oscillations between the MIS22/21 transition and most of MIS 21, times of enhanced insolation variability.
Resumo:
Since the seminal work by Hays et al. (1976), a plethora of studies has demonstrated a correlation between orbital variations and climatic change. However, information on how changes in orbital boundary conditions affected the frequency and amplitude of millennial-scale climate variability is still fragmentary. The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 19, an interglacial centred at around 785 ka, provides an opportunity to pursue this question and test the hypothesis that the long-term processes set up the boundary conditions within which the short-term processes operate. Similarly to the current interglacial, MIS 19 is characterised by a minimum of the 400-kyr eccentricity cycle, subdued amplitude of precessional changes, and small amplitude variations in insolation. Here we examine the record of climatic conditions during MIS 19 using high-resolution stable isotope records from benthic and planktonic foraminifera from a sedimentary sequence in the North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 306, Site U1313) in order to assess the stability and duration of this interglacial, and evaluate the climate system's response in the millennial band to known orbitally induced insolation changes. Benthic and planktonic foraminiferal d18O values indicate relatively stable conditions during the peak warmth of MIS 19, but sea-surface and deep-water reconstructions start diverging during the transition towards the glacial MIS 18, when large, cold excursions disrupt the surface waters whereas low amplitude millennial scale fluctuations persist in the deep waters as recorded by the oxygen isotope signal. The glacial inception occurred at ~779 ka, in agreement with an increased abundance of tetra-unsaturated alkenones, reflecting the influence of icebergs and associated meltwater pulses and high-latitude waters at the study site. After having combined the new results with previous data from the same site, and using a variety of time series analysis techniques, we evaluate the evolution of millennial climate variability in response to changing orbital boundary conditions during the Early-Middle Pleistocene. Suborbital variability in both surface- and deep-water records is mainly concentrated at a period of ~11 kyr and, additionally, at ~5.8 and ~3.9 kyr in the deep ocean; these periods are equal to harmonics of precession band oscillations. The fact that the response at the 11 kyr period increased over the same interval during which the amplitude of the response to the precessional cycle increased supports the notion that most of the variance in the 11 kyr band in the sedimentary record is nonlinearly transferred from precession band oscillations. Considering that these periodicities are important features in the equatorial and intertropical insolation, these observations are in line with the view that the low-latitude regions play an important role in the response of the climate system to the astronomical forcing. We conclude that the effect of the orbitally induced insolation is of fundamental importance in regulating the timing and amplitude of millennial scale climate variability.
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The airline industry is often unstable and unpredictable forcing airlines to restructure and create flexible strategies that can respond to external operating environmental changes. In turbulent and competitive environments, firms with higher flexibility perform better and the value of these flexibilities depends on factors of uncertainty in the competitive environment. A model is sought for and arrived at, that shows how an airline business model will function in an uncertain environment with the least reduction in business performance over time. An analysis of the business model flexibility of 17 Airlines from Asia, Europe and Oceania, that is done with core competence as the indicator reveals a picture of inconsistencies in the core competence strategy of certain airlines and the corresponding reduction in business performance. The performance variations are explained from a service oriented core competence strategy employed by airlines that ultimately enables them in having a flexible business model that not only increases business performance but also helps in reducing the uncertainties in the internal and external operating environments.
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En este Proyecto se pretende establecer la forma de realizar un análisis correcto y ajustado de las redes SMATV (Satellite Master Antenna Television), incluidas dentro de las ICT (Infraestructura Común de Telecomunicaciones), mediante el método de análisis TDA (Time Domain Analysis). Para ello, en primer lugar se procederá a hacer un estudio teórico sobre las ICT’s y sobre las bases en las que se sustenta el método de análisis TDA que sirva como puente introductorio al tema principal de este proyecto. Este tema es el de, mediante el programa de simulación AWR, caracterizar la señal más adecuada para realizar medidas de calidad en las redes SMATV mediante la técnica del TDA y ser capaz de realizar un estudio conciso de estas. Esto se pretende conseguir mediante la definición más correcta de los parámetros de la señal de entrada que se introduciría en la red en futuras medidas de prueba. Una vez conseguida una señal "tipo", se caracterizarán diferentes dispositivos o elementos que forman las redes SMATV para comprobar que la medida realizada con el método del TDA es igual de válida que realizada con el método de análisis vectorial de redes (VNA). ABSTRACT This project aims to establish how to perform a proper analysis and set of SMATV networks (Satellite Master Antenna Television), included within the ICT (Common Telecommunications Infrastructure) by the method of analysis TDA (Time Domain Analysis). To do this, first it will proceed to make a theoretical study on the ICT's and the basis on which the method of analysis TDA is based, introduction that serve as a bridge to the main issue of this project. This issue is about characterizing the most appropriate signal quality measurements in SMATV networks using the technique of AD through the AWR simulation program, and be able to make a concise study of these. This is intended to achieve through the proper definition of the parameters of the input signal, that would be introduced into the network in future test measures. Once achieved a signal "type", will be characterized different devices or elements forming SMATV networks to check that the measure on the TDA method is as valid as on the method of vector network analysis (VNA) .
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The present work aims to assess Laser-Induced Plasma Spectrometry (LIPS) as a tool for the characterization of photovoltaic materials. Despite being a well-established technique with applications to many scientific and industrial fields, so far LIPS is little known to the photovoltaic scientific community. The technique allows the rapid characterization of layered samples without sample preparation, in open atmosphere and in real time. In this paper, we assess LIPS ability for the determination of elements that are difficult to analyze by other broadly used techniques, or for producing analytical information from very low-concentration elements. The results of the LIPS characterization of two different samples are presented: 1) a 90 nm, Al-doped ZnO layer deposited on a Si substrate by RF sputtering and 2) a Te-doped GaInP layer grown on GaAs by Metalorganic Vapor Phase Epitaxy. For both cases, the depth profile of the constituent and dopant elements is reported along with details of the experimental setup and the optimization of key parameters. It is remarkable that the longest time of analysis was ∼10 s, what, in conjunction with the other characteristics mentioned, makes of LIPS an appealing technique for rapid screening or quality control whether at the lab or at the production line.