Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

Single-cell analysis of the physiology of mechanosensation in bacteria

Escherichia coli is one of the best studied living organisms and a model system for many biophysical investigations. Despite countless discoveries of the details of its physiology, we still lack a holistic understanding of how these bacteria react to changes in their environment. One of the most important examples is their response to osmotic shock. One of the mechanistic elements protecting cell integrity upon exposure to sudden changes of osmolarity is the presence of mechanosensitive channels in the cell membrane. These channels are believed to act as tension release valves protecting the inner membrane from rupturing. This thesis presents an experimental study of various aspects of mechanosensation in bacteria. We examine cell survival after osmotic shock and how the number of MscL (Mechanosensitive channel of Large conductance) channels expressed in a cell influences its physiology. We developed an assay that allows real-time monitoring of the rate of the osmotic challenge and direct observation of cell morphology during and after the exposure to osmolarity change. The work described in this thesis introduces tools that can be used to quantitatively determine at the single-cell level the number of expressed proteins (in this case MscL channels) as a function of, e.g., growth conditions. The improvement in our quantitative description of mechanosensation in bacteria allows us to address many, so far unsolved, problems, like the minimal number of channels needed for survival, and can begin to paint a clearer picture of why there are so many distinct types of mechanosensitive channels.

Budget-Neutral Financing to Unlock Energy Savings Potential: An Analysis of the ESCO Model in Barcelona

24 p.

Management of fishing capacity in a spiny lobster (Panulirus argus) fishery: analysis of trap performance under the Florida spiny lobster Trap Certificate Program

The spiny lobster (Panulirus argus) fishery in Florida was operationally inefficient and overcapitalized throughout the 1980s. The Trap Certificate Program initiated during the 1992–93 season was intended to increase gear efficiency by reducing the number of traps being used while maintaining the same catch level in the fishery. A depletion model was used to estimate trap fishing efficiency. The costs of fishing operations and the value of the catch were used to determine the revenues generated by the fishery under different trap levels. A negative functional relationship was found between the catchability coefficient and the number of traps, which indicated that the fewer traps operating under the trap reduction scheme were more efficient. Also, the financial analyses indicated that the higher catch efficiency resulting from fewer traps generated significantly higher revenues, despite lower stock abundances. This study indicates that the trap reduction program had improved a situation that would have been much worse.

Interdecadal change in growth of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) in the northeast Pacific Ocean

Errors in growth estimates can affect drastically the spawner-perrecruit threshold used to recommend quotas for commercial fish catches. Growth parameters for sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) in Alaska have not been updated for stock assessment purposes for more than 20 years, although aging of sablefish has continued. In this study, length-stratified data (1981–93 data from the annual longline survey conducted cooperatively by the Fisheries Agency of Japan and the Alaska Fisheries Science Center of the National Marine Fisheries Service) were updated and corrected for discovered sampling bias. In addition, more recent, randomly collected samples (1996–2004 data from the annual longline survey conducted by the Alaska Fisheries Science Center) were analyzed and new length-at-age and weight-at-age parameters were estimated. Results were similar between this analysis with length-at-age data from 1981 to 2004 and analysis with updated longline survey data through 2010; therefore, we used our initial results from analysis done with data through 2004. We found that, because of a stratified sampling scheme, growth estimates of sablefish were overestimated with the older data (1981–93), and growth parameters used in the Alaskan sablefish assessment model were, thus, too large. In addition, a comparison of the bias-corrected 1981–93 data and the 1996–2004 data showed that, in more recent years, sablefish grew larger and growth differed among regions. The updated growth information improves the fit of the data to the sablefish stock assessment model with biologically reasonable results. These findings indicate that when the updated growth data (1996–2004) are used in the existing sablefish assessment model, estimates of fishing mortality increase slightly and estimates of female spawning biomass decrease slightly. This study provides evidence of the importance of periodically revisiting biological parameter estimates, especially as data accumulate, because the addition of more recent data often will be more biologically realistic. In addition, it exemplifies the importance of correcting biases from sampling that may contribute to erroneous parameter estimates.

Energy retrofits in social housing. Analysis of its thermal behaviour.

468 p.

Hartle's model within the general theory of perturbatiye matchings: the change in mass

Hartle's model provides the most widely used analytic framework to describe isolated compact bodies rotating slowly in equilibrium up to second order in perturbations in the context of General Relativity. Apart from some explicit assumptions, there are some implicit, like the "continuity" of the functions in the perturbed metric across the surface of the body. In this work we sketch the basics for the analysis of the second order problem using the modern theory of perturbed matchings. In particular, the result we present is that when the energy density of the fluid in the static configuration does not vanish at the boundary, one of the functions of the second order perturbation in the setting of the original work by Hartle is not continuous. This discrepancy affects the calculation of the change in mass of the rotating star with respect to the static configuration needed to keep the central energy density unchanged.

The Feasibility of Enhancing Red Sea Urchin, Strongylocentrotus iranciscanus, Stocks in California: An Analysis of the Options

The California fishery for red sea urchins, Strongylocentrotus franciscanus, has undergone explosive growth in recent years and is approaching full exploitation. Thus, there is considerable interest in enhancing stocks to maintain a high rate of landings. Fishable stocks of red sea urchins in different areas appear to be limited at three stages in their life history: By the availability of larvae, by the survival of newly settled to mid-sized animals, and by the food available to support growth and reproduction of larger animals. Here I review other efforts, notably the extensive Japanese work, to enhance fishable stocks of benthic marine invertebrates, and consider the potential options for red sea urchins at different points of limitation. These include collecting or culturing seed for outplanting, physical habitat improvement measures, improving the food supply, and conservation measures to protect existing stocks until alternate methods are proven and in place. The options are compared in terms of biological feasibility, capital and labor requirements, and potential implications for change in the structure of the fishing industry.

Change in Pacific Northwest coastal ecosystems. Proceedings of the Pacific Northwest Coastal Ecosystems Regional Study Workshop, August 73-14, 1996, Troutdale, Oregon

Over the past one hundred and fifty years, the landscape and ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest coastal region, already subject to many variable natural forces, have been profoundly affected by human activities. In virtually every coastal watershed from the Strait of Juan de Fuca to Cape Mendocino, settlement, exploitation and development of resou?-ces have altered natural ecosystems. Vast, complex forests that once covered the region have been largely replaced by tree plantations or converted to non-forest conditions. Narrow coastal valleys, once filled with wetlands and braided streams that tempered storm runoff and provided salmon habitat, were drained, filled, or have otherwise been altered to create land for agriculture and other uses. Tideflats and saltmarshes in both large and small estuaries were filled for industrial, commercial, and other urban uses. Many estuaries, including that of the Columbia River, have been channeled, deepened, and jettied to provide for safe, reliable navigation. The prodigious rainfall in the region, once buffered by dense vegetation and complex river and stream habitat, now surges down sirfiplified stream channels laden with increased burdens of sediment and debris. Although these and many other changes have occurred incrementally over time and in widely separated areas, their sum can now be seen to have significantly affected the natural productivity of the region and, as a consequence, changed the economic structure of its human communities. This activity has taken place in a region already shaped by many interacting and dynamic natural forces. Large-scale ocean circulation patterns, which vary over long time periods, determine the strength and location of currents along the coast, and thus affect conditions in the nearshore ocean and estuaries throughout the region. Periodic seasonal differences in the weather and ocean act on shorter time scales; winters are typically wet with storms from the southwest while summers tend to be dry with winds from the northwest. Some phenomena are episodic, such as El Nifio events, which alter weather, marine habitats, and the distribution and survival of marine organisms. Other oceanic and atmospheric changes operate more slowly; over time scales of decades, centuries, and longer. Episodic geologic events also punctuate the region, such as volcanic eruptions that discharge widespread blankets of ash, frequent minor earthquakes, and major subduction zone earthquakes each 300 to 500 years that release accumulated tectonic strain, dropping stretches of ocean shoreline, inundating estuaries and coastal valleys, and triggering landslides that reshape stream profiles. While these many natural processes have altered, sometimes dramatically, the Pacific Northwest coastal region, these same processes have formed productive marine and coastal ecosystems, and many of the species in these systems have adapted to the variable environmental conditions of the region to ensure their long-term survival.

Radiocarbon record of solar variability and Holocene climatic change in coastal southern California

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Pollen analysis and 5 radiocarbon dates for a 687-cm core provide a detailed chronology of environmental change for San Joaquin Marsh at the head of Newport Bay, Orange County, California. Sediment deposition kept pace with sea level rise during the mid-Holocene, but after 4500 years BP, sea water regularly reached the coring site, and salt marsh was the local vegetation. Brief periods of dominance by fresh-water vegetation 3800, 2800, 2300 and after 560 years BP correlate global cooling events and (except the 3800-year BP event) with carbon-14 production anomalies. The coincidence of climate change and carbon-14 anomalies support a causal connection with solar variability, but regardless of the causal mechanism(s) the delta-carbon-14 curves provide a chronology for global, high-frequency climatic change comparable to that of Milankovitch cyclicity for longer time scales.

A late-Holocene pollen record from Lower Pahrangat Lake, southern Nevada, USA: high resolution paleoclimatic records and analysis of environmental responses to climate change

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): High resolution paleobotanical records provide sufficient detail to correlate events regionally. Once correlated events can be examined in tandem to determine the underlying inputs that fashioned them. Several localities in the Great Basin have paleobotanical records of sufficient detail to generate regional reconstructions of vegetation changes for the last 2 ka and provide conclusions as to the climates that caused them.

An analysis of records of gillnet fishing in Pilkington Bay, Lake Victoria

Among the commercially valuable species occurring in Lake Victoria the two endemic species of Tilapia, T. esculenta (Graham) and T. variabilis (Boulenger) still provide the basis for the fishery in many areas, though in some places the non-cichlid species are more important, for example in the Kagera river area where large numbers of Labeo victorianus and Schilbe mystus migrate seasonally into the river. Although certain species show these habitat preferences. Most of the coastline of Lake Victoria supports a wide variety of species, all of which contribute to the commercial fishery. Over the past ten years the East African Fisheries Research Organisation has fished experimentally a number of stations within a radius of fifty miles from Jinja. These stations have been selected so as to cover a variety of habitats which range from sheltered bays to exposed coastlines. The records discussed in this paper are the result of fishing operations carried out in Pilkington Bay over the period December 1954 to November 1956. This series of fishing operations was carried out in an attempt to assess the composition of the fish populations contained in this area. To this end a variety of nets of differing mesh sizes were used. Pilkington Bay is about ten square miles in extent and is an irregular and deep indentation on the north coast of Buvuma Island. It lies within the sleeping siclmess area where fishing by Africans is prohibited. When selecting an experimental fishing ground, it is important to have some idea of the amount of commercial fishing being carried out in the area. Throughout the period of this experiment a few African fishermen were seen operating illegally in the area, but it is unlikely that their efforts greatly affected the results obtained. Pilkington Bay was fished by E.A.F.R.O. in 1949 and 1950 (Lowe McConnell 1956) but since then till the present experiment, fishing in the area has been infrequent.

Phylogeographic analysis of mitochondrial DNA haplogroup F2 in China reveals T12338C in the initiation codon of the NDS gene not to be pathogenic

In this report, we studied on a homoplasmic T12338C change in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), which substituted methionine in the translational initiation codon of the NADH dehydrogenase subunit 5 gene (ND5) with threonine. This nucleotide change was originall

Systematic misregistration and the statistical analysis of surface data.

Spatial normalisation is a key element of statistical parametric mapping and related techniques for analysing cohort statistics on voxel arrays and surfaces. The normalisation process involves aligning each individual specimen to a template using some sort of registration algorithm. Any misregistration will result in data being mapped onto the template at the wrong location. At best, this will introduce spatial imprecision into the subsequent statistical analysis. At worst, when the misregistration varies systematically with a covariate of interest, it may lead to false statistical inference. Since misregistration generally depends on the specimen's shape, we investigate here the effect of allowing for shape as a confound in the statistical analysis, with shape represented by the dominant modes of variation observed in the cohort. In a series of experiments on synthetic surface data, we demonstrate how allowing for shape can reveal true effects that were previously masked by systematic misregistration, and also guard against misinterpreting systematic misregistration as a true effect. We introduce some heuristics for disentangling misregistration effects from true effects, and demonstrate the approach's practical utility in a case study of the cortical bone distribution in 268 human femurs.