Modeling and Analysis of Some Heavy Tailed Time Series

The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.

Studies on ocean surface layer responses to atmospheric forcing in the North Indian Ocean

The present study on upper ocean responses to atmospheric forcing (associated with cyclone passage) in North Indian Ocean revealed significant variability between AS and BoB. The analysis of cyclone frequency during 1947 to 2006 exhibited lesser frequency of cyclones in AS than that of BoB. The analysis also revealed significant reduction in cyclone frequency after the year 1976 with substantial reduction during monsoon season. The long term SST data at selected points in AS and BoB could not reveal any relation with reduction in cyclone frequency. However the SLP at same locations exhibited considerable increase during mid 1970’s, which could have contributed to the observed reduction in cyclone frequency after the year 1976.The response in waves during cyclone passage exhibited significant asymmetry on either side of the track in AS and BoB and the response is observed at 100’s of kilometers away from the track. The significant clockwise rotation in wave direction is observed on the right side of the track starting from near the track to far away locations, which existed for a longer duration. However, the anticlockwise rotation in wave direction is observed over a shorter distance on the left side of the track and dissipated immediately.Inertial oscillation is observed in surface current and in the mixed layer temperature associated with cyclone passage, which revealed the role of relative location(s) on either side of the track. The inertial peak closer to the local inertial period indicates maximum transfer of energy during the cyclone passage in both AS and BoB. The absence of strong inertial oscillation even with clockwise rotation in surface current and wind indicates the dominant role of duration of strong wind in generating inertial oscillation.The oceanic response associated with cyclone passage reveal the variable response(s) which depends on cyclone intensity, the proximity to track and cyclone translation speed. It is observed that resonance with wind generates higher response in surface current, wave and SST on the right side of the track and it lasts for a longer duration. The maximum oceanic response is observed at a few kilometers away on right side of the track. However lesser rightward bias in the location of maximum cooling is observed for cyclones with low cyclone translation speed. The response on the left side of the track is less and is limited over a shorter distance and dissipates immediately. It is observed that the ocean response, in general, increases with intensity of cyclones. However the differential cooling produced by the same intensity cyclones in AS and in BoB indicates the dominant role of low cyclone translation speed in oceanic response.The surface cooling exhibited strikingly differential responses between AS and BoB. The TMI-SST and buoy observations exhibited significant cooling for a longer duration in AS compared to that of BoB. The spatial extent of cooling is also much higher in AS than that of BoB. The wide spread cooling associated with cyclone passage in AS indicates the dominant role of thermal structure in oceanic response in AS than that of BoB.

Permutation Entropy Based Analysis of Complex Signals for Characterising Change in System Dynamics

Timely detection of sudden change in dynamics that adversely affect the performance of systems and quality of products has great scientific relevance. This work focuses on effective detection of dynamical changes of real time signals from mechanical as well as biological systems using a fast and robust technique of permutation entropy (PE). The results are used in detecting chatter onset in machine turning and identifying vocal disorders from speech signal.Permutation Entropy is a nonlinear complexity measure which can efficiently distinguish regular and complex nature of any signal and extract information about the change in dynamics of the process by indicating sudden change in its value. Here we propose the use of permutation entropy (PE), to detect the dynamical changes in two non linear processes, turning under mechanical system and speech under biological system.Effectiveness of PE in detecting the change in dynamics in turning process from the time series generated with samples of audio and current signals is studied. Experiments are carried out on a lathe machine for sudden increase in depth of cut and continuous increase in depth of cut on mild steel work pieces keeping the speed and feed rate constant. The results are applied to detect chatter onset in machining. These results are verified using frequency spectra of the signals and the non linear measure, normalized coarse-grained information rate (NCIR).PE analysis is carried out to investigate the variation in surface texture caused by chatter on the machined work piece. Statistical parameter from the optical grey level intensity histogram of laser speckle pattern recorded using a charge coupled device (CCD) camera is used to generate the time series required for PE analysis. Standard optical roughness parameter is used to confirm the results.Application of PE in identifying the vocal disorders is studied from speech signal recorded using microphone. Here analysis is carried out using speech signals of subjects with different pathological conditions and normal subjects, and the results are used for identifying vocal disorders. Standard linear technique of FFT is used to substantiate thc results.The results of PE analysis in all three cases clearly indicate that this complexity measure is sensitive to change in regularity of a signal and hence can suitably be used for detection of dynamical changes in real world systems. This work establishes the application of the simple, inexpensive and fast algorithm of PE for the benefit of advanced manufacturing process as well as clinical diagnosis in vocal disorders.

Acoustic radiation and scattering from cylindrical bodies and analysis of transducer arrays

New mathematical methods to analytically investigate linear acoustic radiation and scattering from cylindrical bodies and transducer arrays are presented. Three problems of interest involving cylinders in an infinite fluid are studied. In all the three problems, the Helmholtz equation is used to model propagation through the fluid and the beam patterns of arrays of transducers are studied. In the first problem, a method is presented to determine the omni-directional and directional far-field pressures radiated by a cylindrical transducer array in an infinite rigid cylindrical baffle. The solution to the Helmholtz equation and the displacement continuity condition at the interface between the array and the surrounding water are used to determine the pressure. The displacement of the surface of each transducer is in the direction of the normal to the array and is assumed to be uniform. Expressions are derived for the pressure radiated by a sector of the array vibrating in-phase, the entire array vibrating in-phase, and a sector of the array phase-shaded to simulate radiation from a rectangular piston. It is shown that the uniform displacement required for generating a source level of 220 dB ref. μPa @ 1m that is omni directional in the azimuthal plane is in the order of 1 micron for typical arrays. Numerical results are presented to show that there is only a small difference between the on-axis pressures radiated by phased cylindrical arrays and planar arrays. The problem is of interest because cylindrical arrays of projectors are often used to search for underwater objects. In the second problem, the errors, when using data-independent, classical, energy and split beam correlation methods, in finding the direction of arrival (DOA) of a plane acoustic wave, caused by the presence of a solid circular elastic cylindrical stiffener near a linear array of hydrophones, are investigated. Scattering from the effectively infinite cylinder is modeled using the exact axisymmetric equations of motion and the total pressures at the hydrophone locations are computed. The effect of the radius of the cylinder, a, the distance between the cylinder and the array, b, the number of hydrophones in the array, 2H, and the angle of incidence of the wave, α, on the error in finding the DOA are illustrated using numerical results. For an array that is about 30 times the wavelength and for small angles of incidence (α<10), the error in finding the DOA using the energy method is less than that using the split beam correlation method with beam steered to α; and in some cases, the error increases when b increases; and the errors in finding the DOA using the energy method and the split beam correlation method with beam steered to α vary approximately as a7 / 4 . The problem is of interest because elastic stiffeners – in nearly acoustically transparent sonar domes that are used to protect arrays of transducers – scatter waves that are incident on it and cause an error in the estimated direction of arrival of the wave. In the third problem, a high-frequency ray-acoustics method is presented and used to determine the interior pressure field when a plane wave is normally incident on a fluid cylinder embedded in another infinite fluid. The pressure field is determined by using geometrical and physical acoustics. The interior pressure is expressed as the sum of the pressures due to all rays that pass through a point. Numerical results are presented for ka = 20 to 100 where k is the acoustic wavenumber of the exterior fluid and a is the radius of the cylinder. The results are in good agreement with those obtained using field theory. The directional responses, to the plane wave, of sectors of a circular array of uniformly distributed hydrophones in the embedded cylinder are then computed. The sectors are used to simulate linear arrays with uniformly distributed normals by using delays. The directional responses are compared with the output from an array in an infinite homogenous fluid. These outputs are of interest as they are used to determine the direction of arrival of the plane wave. Numerical results are presented for a circular array with 32 hydrophones and 12 hydrophones in each sector. The problem is of interest because arrays of hydrophones are housed inside sonar domes and acoustic plane waves from distant sources are scattered by the dome filled with fresh water and cause deterioration in the performance of the array.

Seasonal and interannual variability of sea level and associated surface meteorological parameters at Cochin

This thesis entitled seasonal and interannual variability of sea level and associated surface meteorological parameters at cochin.The interesting aspect of studying sea level variability on different time scales can be attributed to the diversity of its applications.Study of tides could perhaps be the oldest branch of physical oceanography.The thesis is presented in seven chapters. The first chapter gives, apart from a general introduction, a survey of literature on sea level variability on different time scales - tidal, seasonal and interannual (geological scales excluded), with particular emphasis on the work carried out in the Indian waters. The second chapter is devoted to the study of observed tides at Cochin on seasonal and interannual time scales using hourly water level data for the period 1988-1993. The third chapter describes the long-term climatology of some important surface oceanographic and meteorological parameters (at Cochin) which are supposed to affect the sea level. The fourth chapter addresses the problem of seasonal forecasting of the meteorological and oceanographic parameters at Cochin using autoregressive, sinusoidal and exponentially weighted moving average techniques and testing their accuracy with the observed data for the period 1991-1993. The fifth chapter describes the seasonal cycles of sea level and the driving forces at 16 stations along the Indian subcontinent. It also addresses the observed interannual variability of sea level at 15 stations using available multi-annual data sets. The sixth chapter deals with the problem of coastal trapped waves between Cochin and Beypore off the Kerala coast using sea level and atmospheric pressure data sets for the year 1977. The seventh and the last chapter contains the summary and conclusions and future outlook based on this study.

Role of sea-surface wind and transport on enhanced aerosol optical depth observed over the Arabian Sea

The objective of this study is to understand the reasons for the enhancement in aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the Arabian Sea observed during June, July and August. During these months, high values of AOD are found over the sea beyond 10◦ N and adjacent regions. The Arabian Sea is bounded by the lands of Asia and Africa on its three sides. So the region is influenced by transported aerosols from the surroundings as well as aerosols of local origin (marine aerosols). During the summer monsoon season in India, strong surface winds with velocities around 15 m s−1 are experienced over most parts of the Arabian Sea. These winds are capable of increasing sea spray activity, thereby enhancing the production of marine aerosols. The strong winds increase the contribution of marine aerosols over the region to about 60% of the total aerosol content. The main components of marine aerosols include sea salt and sulphate particles. The remaining part of the aerosol particles comes from the western and northern land masses around the sea, of which the main component is transported dust particles. This transport is observed at higher altitudes starting from 600 m. At low levels, the transport occurs mainly from the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea itself, indicating the predominance of marine aerosols at these levels. The major portion of the total aerosol loading was contributed by coarse-mode particles during the period of study. But in the winter season, the concentration of coarse-mode aerosols is found to be less. From the analysis, it is concluded that the increase in marine aerosols and dust particles transported from nearby deserts results in an increase in aerosol content over the Arabian Sea during June, July and August.

Swift heavy ion induced surface and microstructural evolution in metallic glass thin films

Swift heavy ion induced changes in microstructure and surface morphology of vapor deposited Fe–Ni based metallic glass thin films have been investigated by using atomic force microscopy, X-ray diffraction and transmission electron microscopy. Ion beam irradiation was carried out at room temperature with 103 MeV Au9+ beam with fluences ranging from 3 1011 to 3 1013 ions/cm2. The atomic force microscopy images were subjected to power spectral density analysis and roughness analysis using an image analysis software. Clusters were found in the image of as-deposited samples, which indicates that the film growth is dominated by the island growth mode. As-deposited films were amorphous as evidenced from X-ray diffraction; however, high resolution transmission electron microscopy measurements revealed a short range atomic order in the samples with crystallites of size around 3 nm embedded in an amorphous matrix. X-ray diffraction pattern of the as-deposited films after irradiation does not show any appreciable changes, indicating that the passage of swift heavy ions stabilizes the short range atomic ordering, or even creates further amorphization. The crystallinity of the as-deposited Fe–Ni based films was improved by thermal annealing, and diffraction results indicated that ion beam irradiation on annealed samples results in grain fragmentation. On bombarding annealed films, the surface roughness of the films decreased initially, then, at higher fluences it increased. The observed change in surface morphology of the irradiated films is attributed to the interplay between ion induced sputtering, volume diffusion and surface diffusion

Not the outside but the inside matters : functional analysis of Capricious and Tartan during Drosophila tracheal morphogenesis

The tubular structures, which transport essential gases, liquids, or cells from one site to another, are shared among various divergent organisms. These highly organized tubular networks include lung, kidney, vasculature and mammary gland in mammals as well as trachea and salivary gland in Drosophila melanogaster. Many questions regarding the tubular morphogenesis cannot be addressed sufficiently by investigating the mammalian organs because their structures are extremely complex and therefore, systematic analyses of genetic and cellular programs guiding the development is not possible. In contrast, the Drosophila tracheal development provides an excellent model system since many molecular markers and powerful tools for genetic manipulations are available. Two mechanisms were shown to be important for the outgrowth of tracheal cells: the FGF signaling pathway and the interaction between the tracheal cells and the surrounding mesodermal cells. The Drosophila FGF ligand encoded by branchless (bnl) is localized in groups of cells near tracheal metameres. The tracheal cells expressing the FGF receptor breathless (btl) respond to these sources of FGF ligand and extend towards them. However, this FGF signaling pathway is not sufficient for the formation of continuous dorsal trunk, the only muticellular tube in tracheal system. Recently, it was found out that single mesodermal cells called bridge-cells are essential for the formation of continuous dorsal trunk as they direct the outgrowth of dorsal trunk cells towards the correct targets. The results in this PhD thesis demonstrate that a cell adhesion molecule Capricious (Caps), which is specifically localized on the surface of bridge-cells, plays an essential role in guiding the outgrowing dorsal trunk cells towards their correct targets. When caps is lacking, some bridge-cells cannot stretch properly towards the adjacent posterior tracheal metameres and thus fail to interconnect the juxtaposing dorsal trunk cells. Consequently, discontinuous dorsal trunks containing interruptions at several positions are formed. On the other hand, when caps is ectopically expressed in the mesodermal cells through a twi-GAL4 driver, these mesodermal cells acquire a guidance function through ectopic caps and misguide the outgrowing dorsal trunk cells in abnormal directions. As a result, disconnected dorsal trunks are formed. These loss- and gain-of-function studies suggest that Caps presumably establishes the cell-to-cell contact between the bridge-cells and the tracheal cells and thereby mediates directly the guidance function of bridge-cells. The most similar protein known to Caps is another cell adhesion molecule called Tartan (Trn). Interestingly, trn is expressed in the mesodermal cells but not in the bridge-cells. When trn is lacking, the outgrowth of not only the dorsal trunks but also the lateral trunks are disrupted. However, in contrast to the ectopic expression of caps, the misexpression of trn does not affect tracheal development. Whereas Trn requires only its extracellular domain to mediate the matrix function, Caps requires both its extracellular and intracellular domains to function as a guidance molecule in the bridge-cells. These observations suggest that Trn functions differently from Caps during tracheal morphogenesis. Presumably, Trn mediates a matrix function of mesodermal cells, which support the tracheal cells to extend efficiently through the surrounding mesodermal tissue. In order to determine which domains dictate the functional specificity of Caps, two hybrid proteins CapsEdTrnId, which contains the Caps extracellular domain and the Trn intracellular domain, and TrnEdCapsId, which consists of the Trn extracellular domain and the Caps intracellular domain, were constructed. Gain of function and rescue experiments with these hybrid proteins suggest on one hand that the extracellular domains of Caps and Trn are functionally redundant and on the other hand that the intracellular domain dictates the functional specificity of Caps. In order to identify putative interactors of Caps, yeast two-hybrid screening was performed. An in vivo interaction assay in yeast suggests that Ras64B interacts specifically with the Caps intracellular domain. In addition, an in vitro binding assay reveals a direct interaction between an inactive form of Ras64B and the Caps intracellular domain. ras64B, which encodes a small GTPase, is expressed in the mesodermal cells concurrently as caps. Finally, a gain-of-function study with the constitutively active Ras64B suggests that Ras64B presumably functions downstream of Caps. All these results suggest consistently that the small GTPase Ras64B binds specifically to the Caps intracellular domain and may thereby mediate the guidance function of Caps.

Adsorption of element 112 on a Au surface

Während der letzten 20 Jahre hat sich das Periodensystem bis zu den Elementen 114 und 116 erweitert. Diese sind kernphysikalisch nachgewiesen, so dass jetzt die chemische Untersuchung an erster Selle steht. Nachdem sich das Periodensystem bis zum Element 108 so verhält, wie man es dem Periodensystem nach annimmt, wird in dieser Arbeit die Chemie des Elements 112 untersucht. Dabei geht es um die Adsorptionsenergie auf einer Gold-Ober fläche, weil dies der physikalisch/chemische Prozess ist, der bei der Analyse angewandt wird. Die Methode, die in dieser Arbeit angwandt wird, ist die relativistische Dichtefunktionalmethode. Im ersten Teil wird das Vielkörperproblem in allgemeiner Form behandelt, und im zweiten die grundlegenden Eigenschaften und Formulierungen der Dichtefunktionaltheorie. Die Arbeit beschreibt zwei prinzipiell unterschiedliche Ansätze, wie die Adsorptionsenergie berechnet werden kann. Zum einen ist es die sogenannte Clustermethode, bei der ein Atom auf ein relativ kleines Cluster aufgebracht und dessen Adsorptionsenergie berechnet wird. Wenn es gelingt, die Konvergenz mit der Größe des Clusters zu erreichen, sollte dies zu einem Wert für die Adsorptionsenergie führen. Leider zeigt sich in den Rechnungen, dass aufgrund des zeitlichen Aufwandes die Konvergenz für die Clusterrechnungen nicht erreicht wird. Es werden sehr ausführlich die drei verschiedenen Adsorptionsplätze, die Top-, die Brücken- und die Muldenposition, berechnet. Sehr viel mehr Erfolg erzielt man mit der Einbettungsmethode, bei der ein kleiner Cluster von vielen weiteren Atomen an den Positionen, die sie im Festkörpers auf die Adsorptionsenergie soweit sichergestellt ist, dass physikalisch-chemisch gute Ergebnisse erzielt werden. Alle hier gennanten Rechnungen sowohl mit der Cluster- wie mit der Einbettungsmethode verlangen sehr, sehr lange Rechenzeiten, die, wie oben bereits erwähnt, nicht zu einer Konvergenz für die Clusterrechnungen ausreichten. In der Arbeit wird bei allen Rechnungen sehr detailliert auf die Abhängigkeit von den möglichen Basissätzen eingegangen, die ebenfalls in entscheidender Weise zur Länge und Qualität der Rechnungen beitragen. Die auskonvergierten Rechnungen werden in der Form von Potentialkurven, Density of States (DOS), Overlap Populations sowie Partial Crystal Overlap Populations analysiert. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich, dass die Adsoptionsenergie für das Element 112 auf einer Goldoberfläche ca. 0.2 eV niedriger ist als die Adsorption von Quecksilber auf der gleichen Ober fläche. Mit diesem Ergebnis haben die experimentellen Kernchemiker einen Wert an der Hand, mit dem sie eine Anhaltspunkt haben, wo sie bei den Messungen die wenigen zu erwartenden Ereignisse finden können.

Multi-site time-trend analysis of soil fertility management effects on crop production in sub-Saharan West Africa

Soil fertility constraints to crop production have been recognized widely as a major obstacle to food security and agro-ecosystem sustainability in sub-Saharan West Africa. As such, they have led to a multitude of research projects and policy debates on how best they should be overcome. Conclusions, based on long-term multi-site experiments, are lacking with respect to a regional assessment of phosphorus and nitrogen fertilizer effects, surface mulched crop residues, and legume rotations on total dry matter of cereals in this region. A mixed model time-trend analysis was used to investigate the effects of four nitrogen and phosphorus rates, annually applied crop residue dry matter at 500 and 2000 kg ha^-1, and cereal-legume rotation versus continuous cereal cropping on the total dry matter of cereals and legumes. The multi-factorial experiment was conducted over four years at eight locations, with annual rainfall ranging from 510 to 1300 mm, in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Togo. With the exception of phosphorus, treatment effects on legume growth were marginal. At most locations, except for typical Sudanian sites with very low base saturation and high rainfall, phosphorus effects on cereal total dry matter were much lower with rock phosphate than with soluble phosphorus, unless the rock phosphate was combined with an annual seed-placement of 4 kg ha^-1 phosphorus. Across all other treatments, nitrogen effects were negligible at 500 mm annual rainfall but at 900 mm, the highest nitrogen rate led to total dry matter increases of up to 77% and, at 1300 mm, to 183%. Mulch-induced increases in cereal total dry matter were larger with lower base saturation, reaching 45% on typical acid sandy Sahelian soils. Legume rotation effects tended to increase over time but were strongly species-dependent.

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Computer Analysis of Visual Properties of Curved Objects

A method is presented for the visual analysis of objects by computer. It is particularly well suited for opaque objects with smoothly curved surfaces. The method extracts information about the object's surface properties, including measures of its specularity, texture, and regularity. It also aids in determining the object's shape. The application of this method to a simple recognition task ??e recognition of fruit ?? discussed. The results on a more complex smoothly curved object, a human face, are also considered.

Thermodynamics and log–contrast analysis in fluid geochemistry

There are two principal chemical concepts that are important for studying the natural environment. The first one is thermodynamics, which describes whether a system is at equilibrium or can spontaneously change by chemical reactions. The second main concept is how fast chemical reactions (kinetics or rate of chemical change) take place whenever they start. In this work we examine a natural system in which both thermodynamics and kinetic factors are important in determining the abundance of NH+4 , NO−2 and NO−3 in superficial waters. Samples were collected in the Arno Basin (Tuscany, Italy), a system in which natural and antrophic effects both contribute to highly modify the chemical composition of water. Thermodynamical modelling based on the reduction-oxidation reactions involving the passage NH+4 -> NO−2 -> NO−3 in equilibrium conditions has allowed to determine the Eh redox potential values able to characterise the state of each sample and, consequently, of the fluid environment from which it was drawn. Just as pH expresses the concentration of H+ in solution, redox potential is used to express the tendency of an environment to receive or supply electrons. In this context, oxic environments, as those of river systems, are said to have a high redox potential because O2 is available as an electron acceptor. Principles of thermodynamics and chemical kinetics allow to obtain a model that often does not completely describe the reality of natural systems. Chemical reactions may indeed fail to achieve equilibrium because the products escape from the site of the rection or because reactions involving the trasformation are very slow, so that non-equilibrium conditions exist for long periods. Moreover, reaction rates can be sensitive to poorly understood catalytic effects or to surface effects, while variables as concentration (a large number of chemical species can coexist and interact concurrently), temperature and pressure can have large gradients in natural systems. By taking into account this, data of 91 water samples have been modelled by using statistical methodologies for compositional data. The application of log–contrast analysis has allowed to obtain statistical parameters to be correlated with the calculated Eh values. In this way, natural conditions in which chemical equilibrium is hypothesised, as well as underlying fast reactions, are compared with those described by a stochastic approach

The chemical variability at the surface of Mars: implications for exogenic processes

The chemical composition of sediments and rocks, as well as their distribution at the Martian surface, represent a long term archive of processes, which have formed the planetary surface. A survey of chemical compositions by means of Compositional Data Analysis represents a valuable tool to extract direct evidence for weathering processes and allows to quantify weathering and sedimentation rates. clr-biplot techniques are applied for visualization of chemical relationships across the surface (“chemical maps”). The variability among individual suites of data is further analyzed by means of clr-PCA, in order to extract chemical alteration vectors between fresh rocks and their crusts and for an assessment of different source reservoirs accessible to soil formation. Both techniques are applied to elucidate the influence of remote weathering by combined analysis of several soil forming branches. Vector analysis in the Simplex provides the opportunity to study atmosphere surface interactions, including the role and composition of volcanic gases