Strong governments, weak banks. CEPS Policy Brief No. 305, 25 November 2013

Banks in the northern eurozone have capital ratios that are, on average, less than half of the capital ratios of banks in the eurozone’s periphery. The authors explain this by the fact that northern eurozone banks profit from the financial solidity of their governments and follow business strategies aimed at issuing too much subsidised debt. In doing so, they weaken their balance sheets and become more fragile – less able to withstand future shocks. Paradoxically, financially strong governments breed fragile banks. The opposite occurs in countries with financially weak governments. In these countries banks are forced to strengthen themselves because they are unable to rely on their governments. As a result they have significantly more capital and reserves than banks in the northern eurozone. Recommendations More than in the south, the governments of northern Europe should stand up and force the banks to issue more equity. This should go much further than what is foreseen in the Basel III accord. If the experience of the southern eurozone countries is any guide, banks in the north of the eurozone should at least double the capital and the reserves as a percentage of their balance sheets. Failure to do so risks destroying the financial solidity of the northern European governments when, in the future, negative shocks force these governments to come to the rescue of their undercapitalised banks. The new responsibilities entrusted to the European Central Bank as the single supervisor in the eurozone create a unique opportunity for that institution to change the regulatory and supervisory culture in the eurozone – one that has allowed the large banks to continue living dangerously, with insufficient capital.

Differentiated Europe needs strong institutions. CHALLENGE EUROPE Issue 22 - Challenges and new beginnings: Priorities for the EU's new leadership, September 2014.

Differentiated Europe can be analysed in terms of the three meta-challenges outlined in this publication – stagnation, fragmentation and legitimacy. My argument is simple: stagnation or the prospect of it has been a catalyst for differentiation, fragmentation poses a risk of differentiation gone too far and legitimacy of differentiation is embedded on institutional cohesion and good results.

Georgian dilemmas. Between a strong state and democracy. Point of View No. 29, July 2012

No abstract.

A Strong Europe in a Globalized World: From the Hungarian to the Polish presidency of the Council of the European Union. ACES Working Papers, 2011

On June 17, 2011, the Center for Transatlantic Relations – together with the Center for European Policy Analysis, the Polish Institute of International Affairs in Warsaw, and the Embassies of Hungary and Poland – hosted authors writing on the theme “A Strong Europe in a Globalized World,” and who offered in-depth, substantive reflections about how the United States and Europe can work together more closely in meeting global challenges. Drawing on the agendas of the outgoing and incoming EU Presidencies of the Council of the European Union – Hungary and Poland respectively – authors focused on the importance of a strong US-EU partnership in the face of mounting global challenges, from the current financial and economic crisis through the insecurities of energy markets and the promise of the Arab Spring. Authors explored in depth four key areas of shared interests: A Global Perspective (Transatlantic Partnership in a Globalized World); Achievements and Deliverables of Eastern Partnership; Euro-Atlantic Perspectives for the Balkans; and Common Challenges of Energy Security. Senior Hungarian and Polish government officials, subject matter experts, private sector actors, and think tank scholars participated.

Putin: The morally depraved degradation of a strong state leader. CEPS Commentary, 31 March 2015

In a new CEPS Commentary, Michael Emerson calls for an end to diplomatic euphemisms in describing Putin’s tragic degradation of Russia, its political regime and society. The assassination of Boris Nemtsov on February 27th signals one more step down this dreadful path.

Shall Tunisia Succeed in Becoming a Strong Democratic State? EUSpring Arab Citizenship Review No. 13, December 2015

From the Introduction. Arab revolutions have sparked real hopes for democracy, but the situation varies from one state to another and change has taken various directions, with unpredictable outcomes in the future. In light of current events, most of these countries seem to have failed in their democratic transition and also face the dissolution of their state apparatus in bloody civil wars. This leaves the door open to interpretations associating democracy with chaos. In this view, preserving post-colonial states – authoritarian in most cases – is better than having no state at all. This partially justified the coup that took place in Egypt, where the ‘Deep State’ has recovered its capabilities in a dictatorial manner. The Arab world thus faced an impasse: the state is either stable but authoritarian or democratic yet threatened with dissolution. The dilemma results in an impossible choice between stable dictatorship or freedom ending in chaos.

Winds of Change for US and EU Relations with Cuba. CEPS Commentary, 21 March 2016

The visit by President Obama to Cuba this week marks a new and dramatic phase in the relations between the US and its next-door island neighbour just 90 km off its coastline. It will have taken almost 90 years for an American President to cross the Florida straits after the previous visit, by President Calvin Coolidge, who arrived not by air but on a battleship.

A 300 kyr record of upwelling off Oman during the Late Quaternary: evidence of the Asian southwest monsoon

In the northwest Arabian Sea upwelling occurs each summer, driven by the strong SW monsoon winds. Upwelling results in high biological productivity and a distinctive assemblage of plankton species in the surface waters off Oman that are preserved in the sediments along the Oman continental margin, creating a geologic record of monsoon-driven upwelling. Sediments recovered from the Oman continental margin during Ocean Drilling Program leg 117 provide an opportunity to examine how upwelling has varied during the late Quaternary, spanning a longer interval than piston cores recovered prior to the ODP cruise. Variations in foraminifer shell accumulation and in the relative abundance of Globigerina bulloides indicate dominant cycles of variation at 1/100 kyr, the dominant frequency of glacial-interglacial variations, and at 1/23 kyr, the frequency of precessionally driven cycles in seasonal insolation. The strongest monsoon winds (indicated by increased upwelling) occurred during interglacial times when perihelion was aligned with the summer solstice, an orbital change that increased the insolation received during summer in the northern hemisphere. During glacial times upwelling was reduced, and although the precessional cycles were still present their amplitude was smaller. At both frequencies the upwelling cycles are in phase with minimum ice volume, evidence that glacial-interglacial climate changes also include changes to the climate system that influence the low-latitude monsoon. We attribute the decrease in the monsoon winds observed during glacial times to changes in bare land albedo over Asia and/or to changes in the areal extent and seasonal cycle in Asian snow cover that decrease the summer land-sea temperature contrast. Other mechanisms may also be involved. These new upwelling time series differ substantially from previous results, however the previous work relied on cores located farther offshore where upwelling is less intense and other physical mechanisms become important. Our results support the observations derived from atmospheric general circulation models of the atmosphere that indicate that both glacial boundary conditions, and the strength of summer insolation are important variables contributing to cycles in the monsoon winds during the late Quaternary.

Stable isotope record, Mg/Ca ratios and sea surface reconstruction for sediment core MD06-3067

We present sea surface, upper thermocline, and benthic d18O data, as well as temperature and paleoproductivity proxy data, from the International Marine Global Change Study Program (IMAGES) Core MD06-3067 (6°31'N, 126°30'E, 1575 m water depth), located in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean within the flow path of the Mindanao Current. Our records reveal considerable glacial-interglacial and suborbital variability in the Mindanao Dome upwelling over the last 160 kyr. Dome activity generally intensified during glacial intervals resulting in cooler thermocline waters, whereas it substantially declined during interglacials, in particular in the early Holocene and early marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 5e, when upwelling waters did not reach the thermocline. During MIS 3 and MIS 2, enhanced surface productivity together with remarkably low SST and low upper ocean thermal contrast provide evidence for episodic glacial upwelling to the surface, whereas transient surface warming marks periodic collapses of the Mindanao Dome upwelling during Heinrich events. We attribute the high variability during MIS 3 and MIS 2 to changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation state that affected boreal winter monsoonal winds and upper ocean circulation. Glacial upwelling intensified when a strong cyclonic gyre became established, whereas El Niño-like conditions during Heinrich events tended to suppress the cyclonic circulation, reducing Ekman transport. Thus, our findings demonstrate that variations in the Mindanao Dome upwelling are closely linked to the position and intensity of the tropical convection and also reflect far-field influences from the high latitudes.