Avalanche behavior and statistical properties in a microcrack coalescence process

Fracture owing to the coalescence of numerous microcracks can be described by a simple statistical model, where a coalescence event stochastically occurs as the number density of nucleated microcracks increases. Both numerical simulation and statistical analysis reveal that a microcrack coalescence process may display avalanche behavior and that the final failure is catastrophic. The cumulative distribution of coalescence events in the vicinity of critical fracture follows a power law and the fracture profile has self-affine fractal characteristic. Some macromechanical quantities may be traced back and extracted from the mesoscopic process based on the statistical analysis of coalescence events.

Statistical analysis of synthetic earthquake catalogs generated by models with various levels of fault zone disorder

The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic rebound theory, is applied to the large events from four synthetic earthquake catalogs generated by models with various levels of disorder in distribution of fault zone strength (Ben-Zion, 1996) They include models with uniform properties (U), a Parkfield-type asperity (A), fractal brittle properties (F), and multi-size-scale heterogeneities (M). The results show that the degree of regularity or predictability in the assumed fault properties, based on both the Akaike information criterion and simulations, follows the order U, F, A, and M, which is in good agreement with that obtained by pattern recognition techniques applied to the full set of synthetic data. Data simulated from the best fitting stress release models reproduce, both visually and in distributional terms, the main features of the original catalogs. The differences in character and the quality of prediction between the four cases are shown to be dependent on two main aspects: the parameter controlling the sensitivity to departures from the mean stress level and the frequency-magnitude distribution, which differs substantially between the four cases. In particular, it is shown that the predictability of the data is strongly affected by the form of frequency-magnitude distribution, being greatly reduced if a pure Gutenburg-Richter form is assumed to hold out to high magnitudes.

The degree of predictability of earthquakes in several regions of China: statistical analysis of historical data

The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic-rebound theory, is applied to the historical earthquake data from three strong earthquake-prone regions of China, including North China, Southwest China, and the Taiwan seismic regions. The results show that the seismicity along a plate boundary (Taiwan) is more active than in intraplate regions (North and Southwest China). The degree of predictability or regularity of seismic events in these seismic regions, based on both the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and fitted sensitivity parameters, follows the order Taiwan, Southwest China, and North China, which is further identified by numerical simulations. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.