Assessing the users’ need for a spatial decision support system of smallholder farming in Kenya

Accurate data of the natural conditions and agricultural systems with a good spatial resolution are a key factor to tackle food insecurity in developing countries. A broad variety of approaches exists to achieve precise data and information about agriculture. One system, especially developed for smallholder agriculture in East Africa, is the Farm Management Handbook of Kenya. It was first published in 1982/83 and fully revised in 2012, now containing 7 volumes. The handbooks contain detailed information on climate, soils, suitable crops and soil care based on scientific research results of the last 30 years. The density of facts leads to time consuming extraction of all necessary information. In this study we analyse the user needs and necessary components of a system for decision support for smallholder farming in Kenya based on a geographical information system (GIS). Required data sources were identified, as well as essential functions of the system. We analysed the results of our survey conducted in 2012 and early 2013 among agricultural officers. The monitoring of user needs and the problem of non-adaptability of an agricultural information system on the level of extension officers in Kenya are the central objectives. The outcomes of the survey suggest the establishment of a decision support tool based on already available open source GIS components. The system should include functionalities to show general information for a specific location and should provide precise recommendations about suitable crops and management options to support agricultural guidance on farm level.

ADAM: A Decentralized Parallel Computer Architecture Featuring Fast Thread and Data Migration and a Uniform Hardware Abstraction

The furious pace of Moore's Law is driving computer architecture into a realm where the the speed of light is the dominant factor in system latencies. The number of clock cycles to span a chip are increasing, while the number of bits that can be accessed within a clock cycle is decreasing. Hence, it is becoming more difficult to hide latency. One alternative solution is to reduce latency by migrating threads and data, but the overhead of existing implementations has previously made migration an unserviceable solution so far. I present an architecture, implementation, and mechanisms that reduces the overhead of migration to the point where migration is a viable supplement to other latency hiding mechanisms, such as multithreading. The architecture is abstract, and presents programmers with a simple, uniform fine-grained multithreaded parallel programming model with implicit memory management. In other words, the spatial nature and implementation details (such as the number of processors) of a parallel machine are entirely hidden from the programmer. Compiler writers are encouraged to devise programming languages for the machine that guide a programmer to express their ideas in terms of objects, since objects exhibit an inherent physical locality of data and code. The machine implementation can then leverage this locality to automatically distribute data and threads across the physical machine by using a set of high performance migration mechanisms. An implementation of this architecture could migrate a null thread in 66 cycles -- over a factor of 1000 improvement over previous work. Performance also scales well; the time required to move a typical thread is only 4 to 5 times that of a null thread. Data migration performance is similar, and scales linearly with data block size. Since the performance of the migration mechanism is on par with that of an L2 cache, the implementation simulated in my work has no data caches and relies instead on multithreading and the migration mechanism to hide and reduce access latencies.

Monitoring procedures in environmental geochemistry and compositional data analysis theory

First discussion on compositional data analysis is attributable to Karl Pearson, in 1897. However, notwithstanding the recent developments on algebraic structure of the simplex, more than twenty years after Aitchison’s idea of log-transformations of closed data, scientific literature is again full of statistical treatments of this type of data by using traditional methodologies. This is particularly true in environmental geochemistry where besides the problem of the closure, the spatial structure (dependence) of the data have to be considered. In this work we propose the use of log-contrast values, obtained by a simplicial principal component analysis, as LQGLFDWRUV of given environmental conditions. The investigation of the log-constrast frequency distributions allows pointing out the statistical laws able to generate the values and to govern their variability. The changes, if compared, for example, with the mean values of the random variables assumed as models, or other reference parameters, allow defining monitors to be used to assess the extent of possible environmental contamination. Case study on running and ground waters from Chiavenna Valley (Northern Italy) by using Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, HCO3-, SO4 2- and Cl- concentrations will be illustrated

Quantifying rock fabrics: a test of autocorrelation of the spatial distribution of cristals

A novel test of spatial independence of the distribution of crystals or phases in rocks based on compositional statistics is introduced. It improves and generalizes the common joins-count statistics known from map analysis in geographic information systems. Assigning phases independently to objects in RD is modelled by a single-trial multinomial random function Z(x), where the probabilities of phases add to one and are explicitly modelled as compositions in the K-part simplex SK. Thus, apparent inconsistencies of the tests based on the conventional joins{count statistics and their possibly contradictory interpretations are avoided. In practical applications we assume that the probabilities of phases do not depend on the location but are identical everywhere in the domain of de nition. Thus, the model involves the sum of r independent identical multinomial distributed 1-trial random variables which is an r-trial multinomial distributed random variable. The probabilities of the distribution of the r counts can be considered as a composition in the Q-part simplex SQ. They span the so called Hardy-Weinberg manifold H that is proved to be a K-1-affine subspace of SQ. This is a generalisation of the well-known Hardy-Weinberg law of genetics. If the assignment of phases accounts for some kind of spatial dependence, then the r-trial probabilities do not remain on H. This suggests the use of the Aitchison distance between observed probabilities to H to test dependence. Moreover, when there is a spatial uctuation of the multinomial probabilities, the observed r-trial probabilities move on H. This shift can be used as to check for these uctuations. A practical procedure and an algorithm to perform the test have been developed. Some cases applied to simulated and real data are presented. Key words: Spatial distribution of crystals in rocks, spatial distribution of phases, joins-count statistics, multinomial distribution, Hardy-Weinberg law, Hardy-Weinberg manifold, Aitchison geometry

Application of compositional data analysis to geochemical data of marine sediments

In an earlier investigation (Burger et al., 2000) five sediment cores near the Rodrigues Triple Junction in the Indian Ocean were studied applying classical statistical methods (fuzzy c-means clustering, linear mixing model, principal component analysis) for the extraction of endmembers and evaluating the spatial and temporal variation of geochemical signals. Three main factors of sedimentation were expected by the marine geologists: a volcano-genetic, a hydro-hydrothermal and an ultra-basic factor. The display of fuzzy membership values and/or factor scores versus depth provided consistent results for two factors only; the ultra-basic component could not be identified. The reason for this may be that only traditional statistical methods were applied, i.e. the untransformed components were used and the cosine-theta coefficient as similarity measure. During the last decade considerable progress in compositional data analysis was made and many case studies were published using new tools for exploratory analysis of these data. Therefore it makes sense to check if the application of suitable data transformations, reduction of the D-part simplex to two or three factors and visual interpretation of the factor scores would lead to a revision of earlier results and to answers to open questions . In this paper we follow the lines of a paper of R. Tolosana- Delgado et al. (2005) starting with a problem-oriented interpretation of the biplot scattergram, extracting compositional factors, ilr-transformation of the components and visualization of the factor scores in a spatial context: The compositional factors will be plotted versus depth (time) of the core samples in order to facilitate the identification of the expected sources of the sedimentary process. Kew words: compositional data analysis, biplot, deep sea sediments

Hierarchical Prediction Machines and Big Data Analytics

An emerging consensus in cognitive science views the biological brain as a hierarchically-organized predictive processing system. This is a system in which higher-order regions are continuously attempting to predict the activity of lower-order regions at a variety of (increasingly abstract) spatial and temporal scales. The brain is thus revealed as a hierarchical prediction machine that is constantly engaged in the effort to predict the flow of information originating from the sensory surfaces. Such a view seems to afford a great deal of explanatory leverage when it comes to a broad swathe of seemingly disparate psychological phenomena (e.g., learning, memory, perception, action, emotion, planning, reason, imagination, and conscious experience). In the most positive case, the predictive processing story seems to provide our first glimpse at what a unified (computationally-tractable and neurobiological plausible) account of human psychology might look like. This obviously marks out one reason why such models should be the focus of current empirical and theoretical attention. Another reason, however, is rooted in the potential of such models to advance the current state-of-the-art in machine intelligence and machine learning. Interestingly, the vision of the brain as a hierarchical prediction machine is one that establishes contact with work that goes under the heading of 'deep learning'. Deep learning systems thus often attempt to make use of predictive processing schemes and (increasingly abstract) generative models as a means of supporting the analysis of large data sets. But are such computational systems sufficient (by themselves) to provide a route to general human-level analytic capabilities? I will argue that they are not and that closer attention to a broader range of forces and factors (many of which are not confined to the neural realm) may be required to understand what it is that gives human cognition its distinctive (and largely unique) flavour. The vision that emerges is one of 'homomimetic deep learning systems', systems that situate a hierarchically-organized predictive processing core within a larger nexus of developmental, behavioural, symbolic, technological and social influences. Relative to that vision, I suggest that we should see the Web as a form of 'cognitive ecology', one that is as much involved with the transformation of machine intelligence as it is with the progressive reshaping of our own cognitive capabilities.

Racial and spatial interaction for neighborhood dynamics in Chicago

We look at at the empirical validity of Schelling’s models for racial residential segregation applied to the case of Chicago. Most of the empirical literature has focused exclusively the single neighborhood model, also known as the tipping point model and neglected a multineighborhood approach or a unified approach. The multi-neighborhood approach introduced spatial interaction across the neighborhoods, in particular we look at spatial interaction across neighborhoods sharing a border. An initial exploration of the data indicates that spatial contiguity might be relevant to properly analyse the so call tipping phenomena of predominately non-Hispanic white neighborhoods to predominantly minority neighborhoods within a decade. We introduce an econometric model that combines an approach to estimate tipping point using threshold effects and a spatial autoregressive model. The estimation results from the model disputes the existence of a tipping point, that is a discontinuous change in the rate of growth of the non-Hispanic white population due to a small increase in the minority share of the neighborhood. In addition we find that racial distance between the neighborhood of interest and it surrounding neighborhoods has an important effect on the dynamics of racial segregation in Chicago.

How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site?

A study to monitor boreal songbird trends was initiated in 1998 in a relatively undisturbed and remote part of the boreal forest in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Eight years of point count data were collected over the 14 years of the study, 1998-2011. Trends were estimated for 50 bird species using generalized linear mixed-effects models, with random effects to account for temporal (repeat sampling within years) and spatial (stations within stands) autocorrelation and variability associated with multiple observers. We tested whether regional and national Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends could, on average, predict trends in our study area. Significant increases in our study area outnumbered decreases by 12 species to 6, an opposite pattern compared to Alberta (6 versus 15, respectively) and Canada (9 versus 20). Twenty-two species with relatively precise trend estimates (precision to detect > 30% decline in 10 years; observed SE ≤ 3.7%/year) showed nonsignificant trends, similar to Alberta (24) and Canada (20). Precision-weighted trends for a sample of 19 species with both reliable trends at our site and small portions of their range covered by BBS in Canada were, on average, more negative for Alberta (1.34% per year lower) and for Canada (1.15% per year lower) relative to Fort Liard, though 95% credible intervals still contained zero. We suggest that part of the differences could be attributable to local resource pulses (insect outbreak). However, we also suggest that the tendency for BBS route coverage to disproportionately sample more southerly, developed areas in the boreal forest could result in BBS trends that are not representative of range-wide trends for species whose range is centred farther north.

Use of fused airborne scanning laser altimetry and digital map data for urban flood modelling

Flood modelling of urban areas is still at an early stage, partly because until recently topographic data of sufficiently high resolution and accuracy have been lacking in urban areas. However, Digital Surface Models (DSMs) generated from airborne scanning laser altimetry (LiDAR) having sub-metre spatial resolution have now become available, and these are able to represent the complexities of urban topography. The paper describes the development of a LiDAR post-processor for urban flood modelling based on the fusion of LiDAR and digital map data. The map data are used in conjunction with LiDAR data to identify different object types in urban areas, though pattern recognition techniques are also employed. Post-processing produces a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) for use as model bathymetry, and also a friction parameter map for use in estimating spatially-distributed friction coefficients. In vegetated areas, friction is estimated from LiDAR-derived vegetation height, and (unlike most vegetation removal software) the method copes with short vegetation less than ~1m high, which may occupy a substantial fraction of even an urban floodplain. The DTM and friction parameter map may also be used to help to generate an unstructured mesh of a vegetated urban floodplain for use by a 2D finite element model. The mesh is decomposed to reflect floodplain features having different frictional properties to their surroundings, including urban features such as buildings and roads as well as taller vegetation features such as trees and hedges. This allows a more accurate estimation of local friction. The method produces a substantial node density due to the small dimensions of many urban features.

Stochastic modelling of rainfall from satellite data

Satellite-based rainfall monitoring is widely used for climatological studies because of its full global coverage but it is also of great importance for operational purposes especially in areas such as Africa where there is a lack of ground-based rainfall data. Satellite rainfall estimates have enormous potential benefits as input to hydrological and agricultural models because of their real time availability, low cost and full spatial coverage. One issue that needs to be addressed is the uncertainty on these estimates. This is particularly important in assessing the likely errors on the output from non-linear models (rainfall-runoff or crop yield) which make use of the rainfall estimates, aggregated over an area, as input. Correct assessment of the uncertainty on the rainfall is non-trivial as it must take account of • the difference in spatial support of the satellite information and independent data used for calibration • uncertainties on the independent calibration data • the non-Gaussian distribution of rainfall amount • the spatial intermittency of rainfall • the spatial correlation of the rainfall field This paper describes a method for estimating the uncertainty on satellite-based rainfall values taking account of these factors. The method involves firstly a stochastic calibration which completely describes the probability of rainfall occurrence and the pdf of rainfall amount for a given satellite value, and secondly the generation of ensemble of rainfall fields based on the stochastic calibration but with the correct spatial correlation structure within each ensemble member. This is achieved by the use of geostatistical sequential simulation. The ensemble generated in this way may be used to estimate uncertainty at larger spatial scales. A case study of daily rainfall monitoring in the Gambia, west Africa for the purpose of crop yield forecasting is presented to illustrate the method.

An observing system simulation experiment for climate monitoring with GNSS radio occulation data: setup and testbed study

The long-term stability, high accuracy, all-weather capability, high vertical resolution, and global coverage of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) suggests it as a promising tool for global monitoring of atmospheric temperature change. With the aim to investigate and quantify how well a GNSS RO observing system is able to detect climate trends, we are currently performing an (climate) observing system simulation experiment over the 25-year period 2001 to 2025, which involves quasi-realistic modeling of the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. We carried out two climate simulations with the general circulation model MAECHAM5 (Middle Atmosphere European Centre/Hamburg Model Version 5) of the MPI-M Hamburg, covering the period 2001–2025: One control run with natural variability only and one run also including anthropogenic forcings due to greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, and tropospheric ozone. On the basis of this, we perform quasi-realistic simulations of RO observables for a small GNSS receiver constellation (six satellites), state-of-the-art data processing for atmospheric profiles retrieval, and a statistical analysis of temperature trends in both the “observed” climatology and the “true” climatology. Here we describe the setup of the experiment and results from a test bed study conducted to obtain a basic set of realistic estimates of observational errors (instrument- and retrieval processing-related errors) and sampling errors (due to spatial-temporal undersampling). The test bed results, obtained for a typical summer season and compared to the climatic 2001–2025 trends from the MAECHAM5 simulation including anthropogenic forcing, were found encouraging for performing the full 25-year experiment. They indicated that observational and sampling errors (both contributing about 0.2 K) are consistent with recent estimates of these errors from real RO data and that they should be sufficiently small for monitoring expected temperature trends in the global atmosphere over the next 10 to 20 years in most regions of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Inspection of the MAECHAM5 trends in different RO-accessible atmospheric parameters (microwave refractivity and pressure/geopotential height in addition to temperature) indicates complementary climate change sensitivity in different regions of the UTLS so that optimized climate monitoring shall combine information from all climatic key variables retrievable from GNSS RO data.

Estimating the spatial scales of regionalized variables by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

The variogram is essential for local estimation and mapping of any variable by kriging. The variogram itself must usually be estimated from sample data. The sampling density is a compromise between precision and cost, but it must be sufficiently dense to encompass the principal spatial sources of variance. A nested, multi-stage, sampling with separating distances increasing in geometric progression from stage to stage will do that. The data may then be analyzed by a hierarchical analysis of variance to estimate the components of variance for every stage, and hence lag. By accumulating the components starting from the shortest lag one obtains a rough variogram for modest effort. For balanced designs the analysis of variance is optimal; for unbalanced ones, however, these estimators are not necessarily the best, and the analysis by residual maximum likelihood (REML) will usually be preferable. The paper summarizes the underlying theory and illustrates its application with data from three surveys, one in which the design had four stages and was balanced and two implemented with unbalanced designs to economize when there were more stages. A Fortran program is available for the analysis of variance, and code for the REML analysis is listed in the paper. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A geomatics-based approach for the derivation of the spatial distribution of sediment transport processes in periglacial mountain environments

Within this paper modern techniques such as satellite image analysis and tools provided by geographic information systems (GIS.) are exploited in order to extend and improve existing techniques for mapping the spatial distribution of sediment transport processes. The processes of interest comprise mass movements such as solifluction, slope wash, dirty avalanches and rock- and boulder falls. They differ considerably in nature and therefore different approaches for the derivation of their spatial extent are required. A major challenge is addressing the differences between the comparably coarse resolution of the available satellite data (Landsat TM/ETM+, 30 in x 30 m) and the actual scale of sediment transport in this environment. A three-stepped approach has been developed which is based on the concept of Geomorphic Process Units (GPUs): parameterization, process area delineation and combination. Parameters include land cover from satellite data and digital elevation model derivatives. Process areas are identified using a hierarchical classification scheme utilizing thresholds and definition of topology. The approach has been developed for the Karkevagge in Sweden and could be successfully transferred to the Rabotsbekken catchment at Okstindan, Norway using similar input data. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The spatial prediction of soil mineral N and potentially available N using elevation

The precision farmer wants to manage the variation in soil nutrient status continuously, which requires reliable predictions at places between sampling sites. Ordinary kriging can be used for prediction if the data are spatially dependent and there is a suitable variogram model. However, even if data are spatially correlated, there are often few soil sampling sites in relation to the area to be managed. If intensive ancillary data are available and these are coregionalized with the sparse soil data, they could be used to increase the accuracy of predictions of the soil properties by methods such as cokriging, kriging with external drift and regression kriging. This paper compares the accuracy of predictions of the plant available N properties (mineral N and potentially available N) for two arable fields in Bedfordshire, United Kingdom, from ordinary kriging, cokriging, kriging with external drift and regression kriging. For the last three, intensive elevation data were used with the soil data. The mean squared errors of prediction from these methods of kriging were determined at validation sites where the values were known. Kriging with external drift resulted in the smallest mean squared error for two of the three properties examined, and cokriging for the other. The results suggest that the use of intensive ancillary data can increase the accuracy of predictions of soil properties in arable fields provided that the variables are related spatially. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Representative Soil Sampling Scheme of England and Wales: the spatial variation of topsoil nutrient status and pH between 1971 and 2001

The Representative Soil Sampling Scheme (RSSS) has monitored the soil of agricultural land in England and Wales since 1969. Here we describe the first spatial analysis of the data from these surveys using geostatistics. Four years of data (1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001) were chosen to examine the nutrient (available K, Mg and P) and pH status of the soil. At each farm, four fields were sampled; however, for the earlier years, coordinates were available for the farm only and not for each field. The averaged data for each farm were used for spatial analysis and the variograms showed spatial structure even with the smaller sample size. These variograms provide a reasonable summary of the larger scale of variation identified from the data of the more intensively sampled National Soil Inventory. Maps of kriged predictions of K generally show larger values in the central and southeastern areas (above 200 mg L-1) and an increase in values in the west over time, whereas Mg is fairly stable over time. The kriged predictions of P show a decline over time, particularly in the east, and those of pH show an increase in the east over time. Disjunctive kriging was used to examine temporal changes in available P using probabilities less than given thresholds of this element. The RSSS was not designed for spatial analysis, but the results show that the data from these surveys are suitable for this purpose. The results of the spatial analysis, together with those of the statistical analyses, provide a comprehensive view of the RSSS database as a basis for monitoring the soil. These data should be taken into account when future national soil monitoring schemes are designed.