Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting

Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind “noise,” which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical “downscaling” of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme.

Ionospheric ion and electron heating at the poleward boundary of a poleward expanding substorm-disturbed region

We present observations of a poleward propagating substorm-disturbed region which was observed by the European Incoherent SCATter (EISCAT) radar and the Svalbard International Monitor for Auroral Geomagnetic Effects (IMAGE) magnetometers in the postmidnight sector. The expansion of the disturbance was launched by a substorm intensification which started similar to 25 min after the initial onset, and similar to 10 min before the disturbance arrived over Svalbard. In association with the magnetic disturbance, a poleward expanding enduring enhancement in the F region electron temperature was observed, indicative of soft electron precipitation, with a narrow band of enhanced ion temperature straddling its poleward edge, indicative of fast ion flows and ion-neutral collisional heating. This electron temperature boundary was coincident with the poleward propagating electrojet current system detected by the high-latitude IMAGE magnetometer stations and is taken to be a proxy for the observation of a substorm auroral bulge. The electron temperature boundary is inferred to have a width comparable or less than one radar range gate (similar to 60 km transverse to the magnetic field), while the region of high ion temperature was found to be approximately three gates wide, extending approximately two gates (similar to 120 km) poleward of the electron temperature boundary, and approximately one gate (similar to 60 km) equatorward. The two-beam radar line-of-sight velocity data are found to be consistent with the existence of a layer of high-speed flow in the boundary, peaking at values similar to1.5-3 km s(-1), roughly consistent with the ion temperature data. The flow is directed either east or west along the boundary depending on the direction of the flow in the poleward region. We infer that the flow is deflected along and around the boundary of the substorm-disturbed region due to the high conductivity of the latter. Variations in the flow poleward of the boundary produced no discernible magnetic effects on the ground, confirming the low conductivity of the preboundary ionosphere.

The first real-time worldwide ionospheric predictions network: an advance in support of spaceborne experimentation, on-line model validation, and space weather

We report on the first realtime ionospheric predictions network and its capabilities to ingest a global database and forecast F-layer characteristics and "in situ" electron densities along the track of an orbiting spacecraft. A global network of ionosonde stations reported around-the-clock observations of F-region heights and densities, and an on-line library of models provided forecasting capabilities. Each model was tested against the incoming data; relative accuracies were intercompared to determine the best overall fit to the prevailing conditions; and the best-fit model was used to predict ionospheric conditions on an orbit-to-orbit basis for the 12-hour period following a twice-daily model test and validation procedure. It was found that the best-fit model often provided averaged (i.e., climatologically-based) accuracies better than 5% in predicting the heights and critical frequencies of the F-region peaks in the latitudinal domain of the TSS-1R flight path. There was a sharp contrast however, in model-measurement comparisons involving predictions of actual, unaveraged, along-track densities at the 295 km orbital altitude of TSS-1R In this case, extrema in the first-principle models varied by as much as an order of magnitude in density predictions, and the best-fit models were found to disagree with the "in situ" observations of Ne by as much as 140%. The discrepancies are interpreted as a manifestation of difficulties in accurately and self-consistently modeling the external controls of solar and magnetospheric inputs and the spatial and temporal variabilities in electric fields, thermospheric winds, plasmaspheric fluxes, and chemistry.

A statistical study of large field-aligned flows of thermal ions at high-latitudes

A number of case studies of large, transient, field-aligned ion flows in the topside ionosphere at high-latitudes have been reported, showing that these events occur during periods of frictional heating and/or intense particle precipitation. This study examines the frequency of occurrence of such events for the altitude range 200–500 km, based on 3 years of incoherent scatter data. Correlations of the upgoing ion flux at 400 km with ion and electron temperatures at lower altitudes are presented, together with a discussion of possible mechanisms for the production of such large flows. The influence of low-altitude electron precipitation on the production of these events is also considered.

Observations of large field-aligned flows of thermal plasma in the auroral ionosphere

Large upward field-aligned ion flows have previously been observed in the high latitude ionosphere in response to frictional heating of the local ion population. Results from a recent experiment using the EISCAT radar show similar features but allow, for the first time, determination of the field-aligned profiles of plasma parameters during these events. The upflows occur during frictional heating. The flows are shown to be transient plasma upwellings, from regions where the ion temperature has been elevated by the motion of a convection shear over the observed field line.

Low-energy ion outflows from the ionosphere during a major polar cap expansion — evidence for equatorward motion of inverted-V structures

Data from the Dynamics Explorer 1 satellite and the EISCAT and Sondrestrom incoherent scatter radars, have allowed a study of low-energy ion outflows from the ionosphere into the magnetosphere during a rapid expansion of the polar cap. From the combined radar data, a 200kV increase in cross-cap potential is estimated. The upflowing ions show “X” signatures in the pitch angle-time spectrograms in the expanding midnight sector of the auroral oval. These signatures reveal low-energy (below about 60eV), light-ion beams sandwiched between two regions of ion conics and are associated with inverted-V electron precipitation. The lack of mass dispersion of the poleward edge of the event, despite great differences in the times of flight, reflects the equatorward expansion of the acceleration regions at velocities similar to those of the antisunward convection. In addition, a transient burst of upflow of 0+ is observed within the cap, possibly due to enhanced Joule heating during the event.

Thermal ion flows in the topside auroral ionosphere and the effects of low-altitude, transverse acceleration

Topside ionospheric profiles are used to study the upward field-aligned flow of thermal O+ at high latitudes. On the majority of the field lines outside the plasmasphere, the mean flux is approximately equal to the mean polar wind measured by spacecraft at greater altitudes. This is consistent with the theory of thermal light ion escape supported, via charge exchange, by upward O+ flow at lower heights. Events of larger O+ flow are detected at auroral latitudes and their occurrence is found to agree with that of transversely accelerated ions within the topside ionosphere and the magnetosphere. The effects of low altitude heating of O+ by oxygen cyclotron waves, driven by downward field-aligned currents, are considered as a possible common cause of these two types of event.

Characterising the use of urban space: a geochemical case study from Calleva Atrebatum (Silchester, Hampshire, UK) Insula IX during the late first/early second century AD

The geochemical analysis of soil samples from the Roman town of Calleva Atrebatum (Silchester, Hampshire, UK) has been undertaken in order to enhance our understanding of urban occupation during the late first/early second century AD. Samples taken from a variety of occupation deposits within several, contemporary timber buildings, including associated hearths, have been analysed using laboratory-based x-ray fluorescence for a suite of elements (Cu, Zn, Pb, Sr, P and Ca). The patterns of elemental enrichment seen across the site have allowed us to compare and contrast the buildings that were occupied during this time in an attempt to distinguish different uses, such as between domestic and work-space. Two of the buildings stand out as having high concentrations of elements which suggest that they were dirtier work spaces, whilst other buildings appear to be have lower chemical loadings suggesting they were cleaner.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening

Many theories for the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) focus on diabatic processes, particularly the evolution of vertical heating and moistening. Poor MJO performance in weather and climate models is often blamed on biases in these processes and their interactions with the large-scale circulation. We introduce one of three components of a model-evaluation project, which aims to connect MJO fidelity in models to their representations of several physical processes, focusing on diabatic heating and moistening. This component consists of 20-day hindcasts, initialised daily during two MJO events in winter 2009-10. The 13 models exhibit a range of skill: several have accurate forecasts to 20 days' lead, while others perform similarly to statistical models (8-11 days). Models that maintain the observed MJO amplitude accurately predict propagation, but not vice versa. We find no link between hindcast fidelity and the precipitation-moisture relationship, in contrast to other recent studies. There is also no relationship between models' performance and the evolution of their diabatic-heating profiles with rain rate. A more robust association emerges between models' fidelity and net moistening: the highest-skill models show a clear transition from low-level moistening for light rainfall to mid-level moistening at moderate rainfall and upper-level moistening for heavy rainfall. The mid-level moistening, arising from both dynamics and physics, may be most important. Accurately representing many processes may be necessary, but not sufficient for capturing the MJO, which suggests that models fail to predict the MJO for a broad range of reasons and limits the possibility of finding a panacea.

Novel heating/cooling stage designed for fluid inclusion microthermometry of large stalagmite sections

Liquid–vapour homogenisation temperatures of fluid inclusions in stalagmites are used for quantitative temperature reconstructions in paleoclimate research. Specifically for this application, we have developed a novel heating/cooling stage that can be operated with large stalagmite sections of up to 17 × 35 mm2 to simplify and improve the chronological reconstruction of paleotemperature time-series. The stage is designed for use of an oil immersion objective and a high-NA condenser front lens to obtain high-resolution images for bubble radius measurements. The temperature accuracy of the stage is better than ± 0.1 °C with a precision (reproducibility) of ± 0.02 °C.

Telefantasy tower blocks: space, place and social realism shake-ups in Misfits

This article considers the ways in which British youth telefantasy Misfits (E4, 2009–13) takes up and makes strange urban spaces familiar from social-realist narratives. Filmed on the sprawling East London estate, Thamesmead, the programme chronicles a group of young offenders who are given powers by a freak storm, turning them into ‘ASBO superheroes’. Misfits depends on its British urban landscapes for the assertion of its ‘authenticity’ within British youth television, using spaces and landscapes familiar from urban youth exploitation cinema and television's narratives of the underclass. After situating the series within existing cultural discourses and recent developments in social-realist representations, the article explores how Misfits disrupts what have become signifiers for the ‘real’ – the brutalism of housing estates, the grey of the concrete and sky – by making them strange, turning them into telefantasy. The series presents the estate as an uncanny place: the domestic, social-realist world shifted into a fantastical space by the storm. Through close analysis, this article explores how the familiar spaces become skewed and unsettling to match our protagonists' isolation, shifting bodies and scrambled sense of self.

Transreal logical space of all propositions

Transreal numbers provide a total semantics containing classical truth values, dialetheaic, fuzzy and gap values. A paraconsistent Sheffer Stroke generalises all classical logics to a paraconsistent form. We introduce logical spaces of all possible worlds and all propositions. We operate on a proposition, in all possible worlds, at the same time. We define logical transformations, possibility and necessity relations, in proposition space, and give a criterion to determine whether a proposition is classical. We show that proofs, based on the conditional, infer gaps only from gaps and that negative and positive infinity operate as bottom and top values.

Aretusa: continuity, rupture, and space for intervention, 1944-1946

This article focuses on the cultural activity of Aretusa (1944-1946), a journal that was deeply connected to the inner circle of philosopher and politician Benedetto Croce (1866-1952). The article analyses the role played by periodical editors Francesco Flora (1891-1962) and Carlo Muscetta (1912-2004) in shaping the mission and direction of this journal. By drawing on Pierre Bourdieu’s theory of habitus, and the notion of hysteresis in particular, this study details the factors influencing the aesthetic dispositions, political positioning, and the wider impact of historical circumstances on the cultural practice of each editor while at the helm of the review.