Lesser Scaup Population Dynamics: What Can Be Learned from Available Data?

Populations of Lesser Scaup (Aythya affinis) have declined markedly in North America since the early 1980s. When considering alternatives for achieving population recovery, it would be useful to understand how the rate of population growth is functionally related to the underlying vital rates and which vital rates affect population growth rate the most if changed (which need not be those that influenced historical population declines). To establish a more quantitative basis for learning about life history and population dynamics of Lesser Scaup, we summarized published and unpublished estimates of vital rates recorded between 1934 and 2005, and developed matrix life-cycle models with these data for females breeding in the boreal forest, prairie-parklands, and both regions combined. We then used perturbation analysis to evaluate the effect of changes in a variety of vital-rate statistics on finite population growth rate and abundance. Similar to Greater Scaup (Aythya marila), our modeled population growth rate for Lesser Scaup was most sensitive to unit and proportional change in adult female survival during the breeding and non-breeding seasons, but much less so to changes in fecundity parameters. Interestingly, population growth rate was also highly sensitive to unit and proportional changes in the mean of nesting success, duckling survival, and juvenile survival. Given the small samples of data for key aspects of the Lesser Scaup life cycle, we recommend additional research on vital rates that demonstrate a strong effect on population growth and size (e.g., adult survival probabilities). Our life-cycle models should be tested and regularly updated in the future to simultaneously guide science and management of Lesser Scaup populations in an adaptive context.

Contrasting Effects of Cattle Grazing Intensity on Upland-Nesting Duck Production at Nest and Field Scales in the Aspen Parkland, Canada

The Aspen Parkland of Canada is one of the most important breeding areas for temperate nesting ducks in North America. The region is dominated by agricultural land use, with approximately 9.3 million ha in pasture land for cattle grazing. However, the effects of using land for cattle grazing on upland-nesting duck production are poorly understood. The current study was undertaken during 2001 and 2002 to investigate how nest density and nesting success of upland-nesting ducks varied with respect to the intensity of cattle grazing in the Aspen Parkland. We predicted that the removal and trampling of vegetation through cattle grazing would reduce duck nest density. Both positive and negative responses of duck nesting success to grazing have been reported in previous studies, leading us to test competing hypotheses that nesting success would (1) decline linearly with grazing intensity or (2) peak at moderate levels of grazing. Nearly 3300 ha of upland cover were searched during the study. Despite extensive and severe drought, nest searches located 302 duck nests. As predicted, nest density was higher in fields with lower grazing intensity and higher pasture health scores. A lightly grazed field with a pasture score of 85 out of a possible 100 was predicted to have 16.1 nests/100 ha (95% CI = 11.7–22.1), more than five times the predicted nest density of a heavily grazed field with a pasture score of 58 (3.3 nests/100 ha, 95% CI = 2.2–4.5). Nesting success was positively related to nest-site vegetation density across most levels of grazing intensity studied, supporting our hypothesis that reductions in vegetation caused by grazing would negatively affect nesting success. However, nesting success increased with grazing intensity at the field scale. For example, nesting success for a well-concealed nest in a lightly grazed field was 11.6% (95% CI = 3.6–25.0%), whereas nesting success for a nest with the same level of nest-site vegetation in a heavily grazed field was 33.9% (95% CI = 17.0–51.8%). Across the range of residual cover observed in this study, nests with above-average nest-site vegetation density had nesting success rates that exceeded the levels believed necessary to maintain duck populations. Our findings on complex and previously unreported relationships between grazing, nest density, and nesting success provide useful insights into the management and conservation of ground-nesting grassland birds.