Indicateurs de résultats du Promedro III, situation en 2008 : rapport final

[Table des matières] 1. Introduction. 1.1. Rappel du mandat. 1.2. Méthode. 2. Résultats. 2.1. Indicateurs du nombre de consommateurs. 2.2. Indicateurs des problèmes en relation (ou non) avec les drogues chez les jeunes. 2.3. Indicateurs en relation avec la consommation problématique de drogues dures en général. 2.4. Indicateurs des conséquences négatives pour les usagers de drogues illégales. 2.5. Indicateurs des conséquences négatives pour la société. 3. Annexe.

Probabilistic models to assist maintenance of multiple instruments

The paper discusses maintenance challenges of organisations with a huge number of devices and proposes the use of probabilistic models to assist monitoring and maintenance planning. The proposal assumes connectivity of instruments to report relevant features for monitoring. Also, the existence of enough historical registers with diagnosed breakdowns is required to make probabilistic models reliable and useful for predictive maintenance strategies based on them. Regular Markov models based on estimated failure and repair rates are proposed to calculate the availability of the instruments and Dynamic Bayesian Networks are proposed to model cause-effect relationships to trigger predictive maintenance services based on the influence between observed features and previously documented diagnostics

The appropriateness of renal angioplasty: the ANPARIA software: a multidisciplinary expert panel approach

Percutaneous transluminal renal angioplasty (PTRA) is an invasive technique that is costly and involves the risk of complications and renal failure. The ability of PTRA to reduce the administration of antihypertensive drugs has been demonstrated. A potentially greater benefit, which nevertheless remains to be proven, is the deferral of the need for chronic dialysis. The aim of the study (ANPARIA) was to assess the appropriateness of PTRA to impact on the evolution of renal function. A standardized expert panel method was used to assess the appropriateness of medical treatment alone or medical treatment with revascularization in various clinical situations. The choice of revascularization by either PTRA or surgery was examined for each clinical situation. Analysis was based on a detailed literature review and on systematically elicited expert opinion, which were obtained during a two-round modified Delphi process. The study provides detailed responses on the appropriateness of PTRA for 1848 distinct clinical scenarios. Depending on the major clinical presentation, appropriateness of revascularization varied from 32% to 75% for individual scenarios (overal 48%). Uncertainty as to revascularization was 41% overall. When revascularization was appropriate, PTRA was favored over surgery in 94% of the scenarios, except in certain cases of aortic atheroma where sugery was the preferred choice. Kidney size [7 cm, absence of coexisting disease, acute renal failure, a high degree of stenosis (C70%), and absence of multiple arteries were identified as predictive variables of favorable appropriateness ratings. Situations such as cardiac failure with pulmonary edema or acute thrombosis of the renal artery were defined as indications for PTRA. This study identified clinical situations in which PTRA or surgery are appropriate for renal artery disease. We built a decision tree which can be used via Internet: the ANPARIA software (http://www.chu-clermontferrand.fr/anparia/). In numerous clinical situations uncertainty remains as to whether PTRA prevents deterioration of renal function.

La revascularisation transmyocardique au laser--un risque potentiel en condition aiguë [Laser transmyocardial revascularization--a potential risk in an acute situation?]

Morphological and functional effects of transmyocardial laser revascularization (TMLR) are analyzed in an acute setting on a porcine model. Ten channels were drilled in the left lateral wall of the heart of 15 pigs (mean weight, 73 +/- 4 kg) with a Holmium-YAG laser (wavelength: 2.1 mu, probe diameter: 1.75 mm). Echocardiographic control was performed before the TMLR procedure as well as 5 min and 30 min thereafter. Echocardiographic parameters were recorded in short-axis at the level of the laser channels, and included left ventricular ejection fraction, fractional shortening and segmental wall motility of the channels' area (scale 0-3: 0 = normal, 1 = hypokinesia, 2 = akinesia, 3 = dyskinesia). After sacrifice the lased region was sliced perpendicularly to the channels for histological and morphometrical analysis. Five minutes after the drilling of the channels, all the echocardiographic index worsened significantly in comparison with baseline values (p < 0.01). All recovered after 30 min and showed no difference with baseline values. Cross-section of the channel lesions measured 8.8 +/- 2.4 mm2 which is more than three times that of the probe (p < 0.01). In acute conditions, the lesions due to the TMLR probe are significantly larger than the probe itself and cause a transient drop of the segmental wall motility on a healthy myocardium. These results suggest that TMLR should be used cautiously in the clinical setting for patients with an impaired ventricular function.

Towards smart user models in open environments

Our work is concerned with user modelling in open environments. Our proposal then is the line of contributions to the advances on user modelling in open environments thanks so the Agent Technology, in what has been called Smart User Model. Our research contains a holistic study of User Modelling in several research areas related to users. We have developed a conceptualization of User Modelling by means of examples from a broad range of research areas with the aim of improving our understanding of user modelling and its role in the next generation of open and distributed service environments. This report is organized as follow: In chapter 1 we introduce our motivation and objectives. Then in chapters 2, 3, 4 and 5 we provide the state-of-the-art on user modelling. In chapter 2, we give the main definitions of elements described in the report. In chapter 3, we present an historical perspective on user models. In chapter 4 we provide a review of user models from the perspective of different research areas, with special emphasis on the give-and-take relationship between Agent Technology and user modelling. In chapter 5, we describe the main challenges that, from our point of view, need to be tackled by researchers wanting to contribute to advances in user modelling. From the study of the state-of-the-art follows an exploratory work in chapter 6. We define a SUM and a methodology to deal with it. We also present some cases study in order to illustrate the methodology. Finally, we present the thesis proposal to continue the work, together with its corresponding work scheduling and temporalisation

Maladies professionnelles et prévention : enquête sur la situation prévalant en Allemagne, Finlande, France, Italie et au Canada (Québec)

Le présent rapport se propose d'identifier la manière dont la prévention des pathologies professionnelles retenues dans le cadre de l'étude (pathologies dues à des substances chimiques ou facteurs physiques: amiante, bruit, ciment, huiles de coupe, isocyanates, poussières de bois, résines époxy) ainsi que des cancers professionnels est abordée dans les pays sélectionnés et de décrire des campagnes ayant fait la preuve de leur efficacité et perçues comme susceptibles d'être reprises en Suisse.

Diabetes in Africa: the situation in the Seychelles

Comment on: Levitt NS. Diabetes in Africa: epidemiology, management and healthcare challenges. Heart 2008; 94: 1376-1382. doi: 10.1136/hrt.2008.147306. PMID: 18519551.

La Gestió policial als esdeveniments públics en espais urbans a l'Àfrica: situació actual i perspectives = Policing public events in urban spaces in Africa : an analysis of the current situation and a perspective on follow-up action

L’informe que es presenta en aquest llibre és el resultat d’un nou acord de col·laboració entre el Programa de les Nacions Unides per als Assentaments Humans (ONU-Habitat) i l’Institut de Seguretat Pública de Catalunya, impulsat amb l’objectiu de millorar la seguretat en esdeveniments públics en els espais urbans a l’Àfrica. La fase pilot es va dur a terme el 2010, durant els dos seminaris de formació realitzats a Mollet del Vallès (Barcelona) com a part de la Plataforma Policia per al Desenvolupament Urbà (PPUD). En aquest informe es descriuen els orígens i l’estat de la iniciativa i resumeix els resultats. També s’inclouen algunes recomanacions per a millorar la seguretat d’esdeveniments públics. Font d'informació: http://www.onuhabitat.org.

Modelling short-term ultraviolet exposure as an alternative to individual dosimetry

Background: Excessive exposure to solar Ultra-Violet (UV) light is the main cause of most skin cancers in humans. Factors such as the increase of solar irradiation at ground level (anthropic pollution), the rise in standard of living (vacation in sunny areas), and (mostly) the development of outdoor activities have contributed to increase exposure. Thus, unsurprisingly, incidence of skin cancers has increased over the last decades more than that of any other cancer. Melanoma is the most lethal cutaneous cancer, while cutaneous carcinomas are the most common cancer type worldwide. UV exposure depends on environmental as well as individual factors related to activity. The influence of individual factors on exposure among building workers was investigated in a previous study. Posture and orientation were found to account for at least 38% of the total variance of relative individual exposure. A high variance of short-term exposure was observed between different body locations, indicating the occurrence of intense, subacute exposures. It was also found that effective short-term exposure ranged between 0 and 200% of ambient irradiation, suggesting that ambient irradiation is a poor predictor of effective exposure. Various dosimetric techniques enable to assess individual effective exposure, but dosimetric measurements remain tedious and tend to be situation-specific. As a matter of facts, individual factors (exposure time, body posture and orientation in the sun) often limit the extrapolation of exposure results to similar activities conducted in other conditions. Objective: The research presented in this paper aims at developing and validating a predictive tool of effective individual exposure to solar UV. Methods: Existing computer graphic techniques (3D rendering) were adapted to reflect solar exposure conditions and calculate short-term anatomical doses. A numerical model, represented as a 3D triangular mesh, is used to represent the exposed body. The amount of solar energy received by each "triangle is calculated, taking into account irradiation intensity, incidence angle and possible shadowing from other body parts. The model take into account the three components of the solar irradiation (direct, diffuse and albedo) as well as the orientation and posture of the body. Field measurements were carried out using a forensic mannequin at the Payerne MeteoSwiss station. Short-term dosimetric measurements were performed in 7 anatomical locations for 5 body postures. Field results were compared to the model prediction obtained from the numerical model. Results: The best match between prediction and measurements was obtained for upper body parts such as shoulders (Ratio Modelled/Measured; Mean = 1.21, SD = 0.34) and neck (Mean = 0.81, SD = 0.32). Small curved body parts such as forehead (Mean = 6.48, SD = 9.61) exhibited a lower matching. The prediction is less accurate for complex postures such as kneeling (Mean = 4.13, SD = 8.38) compared to standing up (Mean = 0.85, SD = 0.48). The values obtained from the dosimeters and the ones computed from the model are globally consistent. Conclusion: Although further development and validation are required, these results suggest that effective exposure could be predicted for a given activity (work or leisure) in various ambient irradiation conditions. Using a generic modelling approach is of high interest in terms of implementation costs as well as predictive and retrospective capabilities.

Application of the european customer satisfaction index to postal services. Structural equation models versus partial least squars

Customer satisfaction and retention are key issues for organizations in today’s competitive market place. As such, much research and revenue has been invested in developing accurate ways of assessing consumer satisfaction at both the macro (national) and micro (organizational) level, facilitating comparisons in performance both within and between industries. Since the instigation of the national customer satisfaction indices (CSI), partial least squares (PLS) has been used to estimate the CSI models in preference to structural equation models (SEM) because they do not rely on strict assumptions about the data. However, this choice was based upon some misconceptions about the use of SEM’s and does not take into consideration more recent advances in SEM, including estimation methods that are robust to non-normality and missing data. In this paper, both SEM and PLS approaches were compared by evaluating perceptions of the Isle of Man Post Office Products and Customer service using a CSI format. The new robust SEM procedures were found to be advantageous over PLS. Product quality was found to be the only driver of customer satisfaction, while image and satisfaction were the only predictors of loyalty, thus arguing for the specificity of postal services

Entrevista y urgencia social: un reto para las competencias profesionales del educador social

Si decimos que los seres humanos sólo son capaces de vivir como tales mediante la reconstrucción narrativa de sus experiencias, estamos teniendo en cuenta conceptos e ideas que recuerdan a algunos autores contemporáneos (Ricoeur, Gadamer) que defienden la importancia de ser reconocido como una creatura hecha de palabras. En la medida en que son interpretadas, traducidas, contextualizadas y ordenadas por los profesionales, la situación dialogal significativa cobra importancia. Desde esta perspectiva hemos planteado las asignaturas: Habilidades Sociales, Técnicas de Entrevista y Gestión de Situación de Crisis diseñadas para integrar los diferentes modelos teóricos y las variables que se presentan en la relación comunicativa con el usuario y en particular en la situación de entrevista. Se mostrará también el modo cómo en nuestro proceso formativo, basado en la simulación de situaciones, se fomenta el compromiso con el trabajo en equipo, la autocomprensión y enseña a crear un clima de trabajo cooperativo en el que se hace más eficaz la relación de ayuda. A través de la presentación en clase de un caso práctico en el cual se describen todos los procedimientos y las fases del que se compone el ejercicio de la práctica profesional –paso a paso-, se busca poner de manifiesto las competencias adquiridas, los modelos empleados y las habilidades sociales que han sido necesarias para afrontar con éxito la situación de urgencia social. Finalmente se deja abierta la cuestión sobre la manera en que incide y beneficia este aprendizaje en las futuras situaciones de manejo del estrés profesional (burn out).