Hydrologic variability related to El Nino in the Pacific Northwest [abstract]

A preliminary statistical analysis was undertaken to evaluate whether the effect of El Nino events is apparent in variables related to hydrologic behavior. Annual precipitation, temperature and streamflow were used for three locations in Oregon representing coastal, Willamette Valley/Cascade and eastern Oregon regions. The mean and variance for periods of El Nino occurrence vs. those with no El Nino were computed. Numerical differences were observed but were not consistent across all stations. The coastal area showed a decrease in mean precipitation and increase in mean streamflow during El Nino events. Other stations showed a positive increase in mean for both precipitation and streamflow for El Nino events. Variance of precipitation was greater in the coastal area but smaller in other areas and vice versa for streamflow during El Nino events. Statistical analyses indicated no significant differences of means, variances or distributions using nonparametric tests for El Nino vs. non-El Nino series.

Temporal trends (2000–2011) and influences on fishery-independent catch rates for loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) at an important coastal foraging region in the southeastern United States

Seasonal trawling was conducted randomly in coastal (depths of 4.6–17 m) waters from St. Augustine, Florida, (29.9°N) to Winyah Bay, South Carolina (33.1°N), during 2000–03, 2008–09, and 2011 to assess annual trends in the relative abundance of sea turtles. A total of 1262 loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) were captured in 23% (951) of 4207 sampling events. Capture rates (overall and among prevalent 5-cm size classes) were analyzed through the use of a generalized linear model with log link function for the 4097 events that had complete observations for all 25 model parameters. Final models explained 6.6% (70.1–75.0 cm minimum straight-line carapace length [SCLmin]) to 14.9% (75.1–80.0 cm SCLmin) of deviance in the data set. Sampling year, geographic subregion, and distance from shore were retained as significant terms in all final models, and these terms collectively accounted for 6.2% of overall model deviance (range: 4.5–11.7% of variance among 5-cm size classes). We retained 18 parameters only in a subset of final models: 4 as exclusively significant terms, 5 as a mixture of significant or nonsignificant terms, and 9 as exclusively nonsignificant terms. Four parameters also were dropped completely from all final models. The generalized linear model proved appropriate for monitoring trends for this data set that was laden with zero values for catches and was compiled for a globally protected species. Because we could not account for much model deviance, metrics other than those examined in our study may better explain catch variability and, once elucidated, their inclusion in the generalized linear model should improve model fits.

Effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events on catches of Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern Indian Ocean off Java

The effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events on catches of Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) off Java were evaluated through the use of remotely sensed environmental data (sea-surface-height anomaly [SSHA], sea-surface temperature [SST], and chlorophyll a concentration), and Bigeye Tuna catch data. Analyses were conducted for the period of 1997–2000, which included the 1997–98 El Niño and 1999–2000 La Niña events. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) was applied to examine oceanographic parameters quantitatively. The relationship of those parameters to variations in catch distribution of Bigeye Tuna was explored with a generalized additive model (GAM). The mean hook rate was 0.67 during El Niño and 0.44 during La Niña, and catches were high where SSHA ranged from –21 to 5 cm, SST ranged from 24°C to 27.5°C, and chlorophyll-a concentrations ranged from 0.04 to 0.16 mg m–3. The EOF analysis confirmed that the 1997–98 El Niño affected oceanographic conditions in the EIO off Java. The GAM results indicated that SST was better than the other environmental factors (SSHA and chlorophyll-a concentration) as an oceanographic predictor of Bigeye Tuna catches in the region. According to the GAM predictions, the highest probabilities (70–80%) for Bigeye Tuna catch in 1997–2000 occurred during oceanographic conditions during the 1997–98 El Niño event.

Relationships between ENSO events and San Francisco rainfall, 1949-1991

As California entered its sixth consecutive year of drought, the onset of a positive sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific and other indicators of a developing ENSO event were observed. This brought the following question from the media, water officials, and the public: What effect will El Niño have on the current rainfall season in general and on the intraseasonal distribution of rain in particular? To answer the question, the historical San Francisco rainfall record was examined in relationship to previous ENSO events.

The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

Heat-stress and light-stress induce different cellular pathologies in the symbiotic dinoflagellate during coral bleaching

Coral bleaching is a significant contributor to the worldwide degradation of coral reefs and is indicative of the termination of symbiosis between the coral host and its symbiotic algae (dinoflagellate; Symbiodinium sp. complex), usually by expulsion or xenophagy (symbiophagy) of its dinoflagellates. Herein, we provide evidence that during the earliest stages of environmentally induced bleaching, heat stress and light stress generate distinctly different pathomorphological changes in the chloroplasts, while a combined heat- and light-stress exposure induces both pathomorphologies; suggesting that these stressors act on the dinoflagellate by different mechanisms. Within the first 48 hours of a heat stress (32°C) under low-light conditions, heat stress induced decomposition of thylakoid structures before observation of extensive oxidative damage; thus it is the disorganization of the thylakoids that creates the conditions allowing photo-oxidative-stress. Conversely, during the first 48 hours of a light stress (2007 µmoles m−2 s−1 PAR) at 25°C, condensation or fusion of multiple thylakoid lamellae occurred coincidently with levels of oxidative damage products, implying that photo-oxidative stress causes the structural membrane damage within the chloroplasts. Exposure to combined heat- and light-stresses induced both pathomorphologies, confirming that these stressors acted on the dinoflagellate via different mechanisms. Within 72 hours of exposure to heat and/or light stresses, homeostatic processes (e.g., heat-shock protein and anti-oxidant enzyme response) were evident in the remaining intact dinoflagellates, regardless of the initiating stressor. Understanding the sequence of events during bleaching when triggered by different environmental stressors is important for predicting both severity and consequences of coral bleaching

Comparative analysis of three brevetoxin-associated bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) mortality events in the Florida Panhandle region (USA)

In the Florida Panhandle region, bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) have been highly susceptible to large-scale unusual mortality events (UMEs) that may have been the result of exposure to blooms of the dinoflagellate Karenia brevis and its neurotoxin, brevetoxin (PbTx). Between 1999 and 2006, three bottlenose dolphin UMEs occurred in the Florida Panhandle region. The primary objective of this study was to determine if these mortality events were due to brevetoxicosis. Analysis of over 850 samples from 105 bottlenose dolphins and associated prey items were analyzed for algal toxins and have provided details on tissue distribution, pathways of trophic transfer, and spatial-temporal trends for each mortality event. In 1999/2000, 152 dolphins died following extensive K. brevis blooms and brevetoxin was detected in 52% of animals tested at concentrations up to 500 ng/g. In 2004, 105 bottlenose dolphins died in the absence of an identifiable K. brevis bloom; however, 100% of the tested animals were positive for brevetoxin at concentrations up to 29,126 ng/mL. Dolphin stomach contents frequently consisted of brevetoxin-contaminated menhaden. In addition, another potentially toxigenic algal species, Pseudo-nitzschia, was present and low levels of the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA) were detected in nearly all tested animals (89%). In 2005/2006, 90 bottlenose dolphins died that were initially coincident with high densities of K. brevis. Most (93%) of the tested animals were positive for brevetoxin at concentrations up to 2,724 ng/mL. No DA was detected in these animals despite the presence of an intense DA-producing Pseudo-nitzschia bloom. In contrast to the absence or very low levels of brevetoxins measured in live dolphins, and those stranding in the absence of a K. brevis bloom, these data, taken together with the absence of any other obvious pathology, provide strong evidence that brevetoxin was the causative agent involved in these bottlenose dolphin mortality events.

National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) research highlights in the Chesapeake Bay

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States. It is a unique and valuable national treasure because of its ecological, recreational, economic and cultural benefits. The problems facing the Bay are well known and extensively documented, and are largely related to human uses of the watershed and resources within the Bay. Over the past several decades as the origins of the Chesapeake’s problems became clear, citizens groups and Federal, State, and local governments have entered into agreements and worked together to restore the Bay’s productivity and ecological health. In May 2010, President Barack Obama signed Executive Order number 13508 that tasked a team of Federal agencies to develop a way forward in the protection and restoration of the Chesapeake watershed. Success of both State and Federal efforts will depend on having relevant, sound information regarding the ecology and function of the system as the basis of management and decision making. In response to the executive order, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) has compiled an overview of its research in Chesapeake Bay watershed. NCCOS has a long history of Chesapeake Bay research, investigating the causes and consequences of changes throughout the watershed’s ecosystems. This document presents a cross section of research results that have advanced the understanding of the structure and function of the Chesapeake and enabled the accurate and timely prediction of events with the potential to impact both human communities and ecosystems. There are three main focus areas: changes in land use patterns in the watershed and the related impacts on contaminant and pathogen distribution and concentrations; nutrient inputs and algal bloom events; and habitat use and life history patterns of species in the watershed. Land use changes in the Chesapeake Bay watershed have dramatically changed how the system functions. A comparison of several subsystems within the Bay drainages has shown that water quality is directly related to land use and how the land use affects ecosystem health of the rivers and streams that enter the Chesapeake Bay. Across the Chesapeake as a whole, the rivers that drain developed areas, such as the Potomac and James rivers, tend to have much more highly contaminated sediments than does the mainstem of the Bay itself. In addition to what might be considered traditional contaminants, such as hydrocarbons, new contaminants are appearing in measurable amounts. At fourteen sites studied in the Bay, thirteen different pharmaceuticals were detected. The impact of pharmaceuticals on organisms and the people who eat them is still unknown. The effects of water borne infections on people and marine life are known, however, and the exposure to certain bacteria is a significant health risk. A model is now available that predicts the likelihood of occurrence of a strain of bacteria known as Vibrio vulnificus throughout Bay waters.

A GIS analysis of coastal development and trends in bottlenose dolphin strandings in Charleston, SC: implications for coastal marine spatial planning

Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) inhabit estuarine waters near Charleston, South Carolina (SC) feeding, nursing and socializing. While in these waters, dolphins are exposed to multiple direct and indirect threats such as anthropogenic impacts (egs. harassment with boat traffic and entanglements in fishing gear) and environmental degradation. Bottlenose dolphins are protected under the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972. Over the years, the percentage of strandings in the estuaries has increased in South Carolina and, specifically, recent stranding data shows an increase in strandings occurring in Charleston, SC near areas of residential development. During the same timeframe, Charleston experienced a shift in human population towards the coastline. These two trends, rise in estuarine dolphin strandings and shift in human population, have raised questions on whether the increase in strandings is a result of more detectable strandings being reported, or a true increase in stranding events. Using GIS, the trends in strandings were compared to residential growth, boat permits, fishing permits, and dock permits in Charleston County from 1994-2009. A simple linear regression analysis was performed to determine if there were any significant relationships between strandings, boat permits, commercial fishing permits, and crabpot permits. The results of this analysis show the stranding trend moves toward Charleston Harbor and adjacent rivers over time which suggests the increase in strandings is related to the strandings becoming more detectable. The statistical analysis shows that the factors that cause human interaction strandings such as boats, commercial fishing, and crabpot line entanglements are not significantly related to strandings further supporting the hypothesis that the increase in strandings are due to increased observations on the water as human coastal population increases and are not a natural phenomenon. This study has local and potentially regional marine spatial planning implications to protect coastal natural resources, such as the bottlenose dolphin, while balancing coastal development.

Boat wakes and their influence on erosion in the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway, North Carolina

Boat wakes in the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway (AIWW) of North Carolina occur in environments not normally subjected to (wind) wave events, making sections of AIWW potentially vulnerable to extreme wave events generated by boat wakes. The Snow’s Cut area that links the Cape Fear River to the AIWW is an area identified by the Wilmington District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as having significant erosion issues; it was hypothesized that this erosion could be being exacerbated by boat wakes. We compared the boat wakes for six combinations of boat length and speed with the top 5% wind events. We also computed the benthic shear stress associated with boat wakes and whether sediment would move (erode) under those conditions. Finally, we compared the transit time across Snow’s Cut for each speed. We focused on two size classes of V-hulled boats (7 and 16m) representative of AIWW traffic and on three boat speeds (3, 10 and 20 knots). We found that at 10 knots when the boat was plowing and not yet on plane, boat wake height and potential erosion was greatest. Wakes and forecast erosion were slightly mitigated at higher, planing speeds. Vessel speeds greater than 7 knots were forecast to generate wakes and sediment movement zones greatly exceeding that arising from natural wind events. We posit that vessels larger than 7m in length transiting Snow’s Cut (and likely many other fetch-restricted areas of the AIWW) frequently generate wakes of heights that result in sediment movement over large extents of the AIWW nearshore area, substantially in exceedance of natural wind wave events. If the speed, particularly of large V-hulled vessels (here represented by the 16m length class), were reduced to pre-plowing levels (~ 7 knots down from 20), transit times for Snow’s Cut would be increased approximately 10 minutes but based on our simulations would likely substantially reduce the creation of erosion-generating boat wakes. It is likely that boat wakes significantly exceed wind wave background for much of the AIWW and similar analyses may be useful in identifying management options.

Wave forecasts associated with hurricane landfalls in the vicinity of Cape Lookout, North Carolina

Hurricanes can cause extensive damage to the coastline and coastal communities due to wind-generated waves and storm surge. While extensive modeling efforts have been conducted regarding storm surge, there is far less information about the effects of waves on these communities and ecosystems as storms make landfall. This report describes a preliminary use of NCCOS’ WEMo (Wave Exposure Model; Fonseca and Malhotra 2010) to compute the wind wave exposure within an area of approximately 25 miles radius from Beaufort, North Carolina for estuarine waters encompassing Bogue Sound, Back Sound and Core Sound during three hurricane landfall scenarios. The wind wave heights and energy of a site was a computation based on wind speed, direction, fetch and local bathymetry. We used our local area (Beaufort, North Carolina) as a test bed for this product because it is frequently impacted by hurricanes and we had confidence in the bathymetry data. Our test bed conditions were based on two recent Hurricanes that strongly affected this area. First, we used hurricane Isabel which made landfall near Beaufort in September 2003. Two hurricane simulations were run first by passing hurricane Isabel along its actual path (east of Beaufort) and second by passing the same storm to the west of Beaufort to show the potential effect of the reversed wind field. We then simulated impacts by a hurricane (Ophelia) with a different landfall track, which occurred in September of 2005. The simulations produced a geographic description of wave heights revealing the changing wind and wave exposure of the region as a consequence of landfall location and storm intensity. This highly conservative simulation (water levels were that of low tide) revealed that many inhabited and developed shorelines would receive wind waves for prolonged periods of time at heights far above that found during even the top few percent of non-hurricane events. The simulations also provided a sense for how rapidly conditions could transition from moderate to highly threatening; wave heights were shown to far exceed normal conditions often long before the main body of the storm arrived and importantly, at many locations that could impede and endanger late-fleeing vessels seeking safe harbor. When joined with other factors, such as storm surge and event duration, we anticipate that the WEMo forecasting tool will have significant use by local emergency agencies and the public to anticipate the relative exposure of their property arising as a function of storm location and may also be used by resource managers to examine the effects of storms in a quantitative fashion on local living marine resources.

Demersal groundfish densities in trawlable and untrawlable habitats off Washington: implications for the estimation of habitat bias in trawl surveys

Demersal groundfish densities were estimated by conducting a visual strip-transect survey via manned submersible on the continental shelf off Cape Flattery, Washington. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the statistical sampling power of the submersible survey as a tool to discriminate density differences between trawlable and untrawlable habitats. A geophysical map of the study area was prepared with side-scan sonar imagery, multibeam bathymetry data, and known locations of historical NMFS trawl survey events. Submersible transects were completed at randomly selected dive sites located in each habitat type. Significant differences in density between habitats were observed for lingcod (Ophiodon elongatus), yelloweye rockfish (Sebastes ruberrimus), and tiger rockfish (S. nigrocinctus) individually, and for “all rockfish” and “all flatfish” in the aggregate. Flatfish were more than ten times as abundant in the trawlable habitat samples than in the untrawlable samples, whereas rockfish as a group were over three times as abundant in the untrawlable habitat samples. Guidelines for sample sizes and implications for the estimation of the continental shelf trawl-survey habitat-bias are considered. We demonstrate an approach that can be used to establish sample size guidelines for future work by illustrating the interplay between statistical sampling power and 1) habitat specific-density differences, 2) variance of density differences, and 3) the proportion of untrawlable area in a habitat.

A modern pollen record from the central Gulf of California

As one facet of an effort to tie the pollen record of central Gulf of California deep cores to modern analogs, pollen was analyzed in the uppermost 150-200 years of varved core 7807-1410 taken nearby. Sampling at 2- to 8-year resolution yielded a noncomplacent record, suggesting pollen in these sediments may be a potential high resolution proxy record of short-term climatic events. The pollen spectrum as a whole matches that of upper-most DSDP Site 480 (means of all samples). Lack of a ratio or influx shift following damming of local rivers and a surplus of low-spine Compositae pollen relative to mainland sites support Baumgartner's theory that terrigenous influx to the site is largely aeolian and also suggest that a significant fraction of the pollen influx may come from Baja California.

Sea surface temperature and paleo-El Niño events in Santa Barbara Basin, AD 1841-1941

Like pages of a "natural coastal diary", successive layers of anoxic varved sediment in the central Santa Barbara Basin have been used by paleoceanographers to reconstruct aspects of past coastal climate. This report focuses on the end of the "Little Ice Age" (15th to 19th century) and on the beginning of this century, a period known to encompass extreme climate excursions and weather events in the Santa Barbara Basin and other parts of Southern California. El Niño events are known to disrupt Southern California's coastal ecosystems and to cause anomalous weather conditions, but El Niño events in Southern California before 1990 have been largely undocumented.