Meteorological and hydrologic studies in the Alaskan Arctic in support of long-term ecological research

Long-term hydrologic studies in the Arctic simply do not exist. Although the Arctic has been identified as an area that is extremely sensitive to climate change, continuous scientific research has been limited to the past seven years. Earlier research was spotty, of short duration, and directed at only one or two hydrologic elements. Immediate future research needs to encompass all the major hydrologic elements, including winter processes, and needs to address the problem of scaling from small to larger areas in hydrologic models. Also, an international program of cooperation between northern countries is needed to build a greater scientific base for monitoring and identifying potential changes wrought by the climate.

In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.

A Biogeographic assessment off North/Central California: In support of the National Marine Sanctuaries of Cordell Bank, Gulf of the Farallones and Monterey Bay. Phase II - Environmental setting and update to marine birds and animals

NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) conducts and supports research, monitoring, assessments, and technical assistance to meet NOAA’s coastal stewardship and management responsibilities. In 2001 the Biogeography Branch of NCCOS partnered with NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) to conduct biogeographic assessments to support the management plan updates for the sanctuaries. The first biogeographic assessment conducted in this partnership focused on three sanctuaries off north/ central California: Cordell Bank, Gulf of the Farallones and Monterey Bay. Phase I of this assessment was conducted from 2001 to 2004, with the primary goal to identify and gather the best available data and information to characterize and identify important biological areas and time periods within the study area. The study area encompasses the three sanctuaries and extends along the coastal ocean off California from Pt. Arena to Pt. Sal (35°-39°N). This partnership project was lead by the NCCOS Biogeography Branch, but included over 90 contributors and 25 collaborating institutions. Phase I results include: 1) a report on the overall assessment that includes hundreds of maps, tables and analyses; 2) an ecological linkage report on the marine and estuarine ecosystems along the coast of north/central California, and 3) related geographic information system (GIS) data and other summary data files, which are available for viewing and download in several formats at the following website: http://ccma.nos.noaa.gov/products/biogeography/canms_cd/welcome.html Phase II (this report) was initiated in the Fall of 2004 to complete the analyses of marine mammals and update the marine bird colony information. Phase II resulted in significant updates to the bird and mammal chapters, as well as adding an environmental settings chapter, which contains new and existing data and maps on the study area. Specifically, the following Phase II topics and items were either revised or developed new for Phase II: •environmental, ecological settings – new maps on marine physiographic features, sea surface temperature and fronts, chlorophyll and productivity •all bird colony or roost maps, including a summary of marine bird colonies •updated at-sea data CDAS data set (1980-2003) •all mammal maps and descriptions •new overall density maps for eight mammal species •new summary pinniped rookery/haulout map •new maps on at-sea richness for cetaceans and pinnipeds •most text in the mammal chapter •new summary tables for mammals on population status and spatial and temporal patterns

Baseline assessment of Guánica Bay, Puerto Rico in support of watershed restoration

Guánica Bay is a major estuary on the southwest coast of Puerto Rico. Significant coral reef ecosystems are present outside the bay. These valuable habitats may be impacted by transport of sediments, nutrients and contaminants from the watershed, through the bay and into the offshore waters. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), in consultation with local and regional experts, conducted an interdisciplinary assessment of coral reef ecosystems, contaminants, sedimentation rates and nutrient distribution patterns in and around Guánica Bay. This work was conducted using many of the same protocols as ongoing monitoring work underway elsewhere in the U.S. Caribbean and has enabled comparisons among coral reef ecosystems between this study and other locations in the region. This characterization of Guánica marine ecosystems establishes benchmark conditions that can be used for comparative documentation of future change, including possible negative outcomes due to future land use change, or improvement in environmental conditions arising from management actions. This report is organized into six chapters that represent a suite of interrelated studies. Chapter 1 provides a short introduction to the study area. Chapter 2 is focused on biogeographic assessments and benthic mapping of the study area, including new surveys of fish, marine debris and reef communities on hardbottom habitats in the study area. Chapter 3 quantifies the distribution and magnitude of a suite of contaminants (e.g., heavy metals, PAHs, PCBs, pesticides) in both surface sediments and coral tissues. Chapter 4 presents results of sedimentation measurements in and outside of the bay. Chapter 5 examines the distribution of nutrients in in the bay, offshore from the bay and in the watershed. Chapter 6 is a brief summary discussion that highlights key findings of the entire suite of studies.

Baseline assessment of Fish and Coral bays, St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands in support of watershed restoration activities, part I: fish, coral and benthic habitats

This report provides baseline biological data on fishes, corals and habitats in Coral and Fish Bays, St. John, USVI. A similar report with data on nutrients and contaminants in the same bays is planned to be completed in 2013. Data from NOAA’s long-term Caribbean Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring program was compiled to provide a baseline assessment of corals, fishes and habitats from 2001 to 2010, data needed to assess the impacts of erosion control projects installed from 2010 to 2011. The baseline data supplement other information collected as part of the USVI Watershed Stabilization Project, a project funded by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and distributed through the NOAA Restoration Center, but uses data which is not within the scope of ARRA funded work. We present data on 16 ecological indicators of fishes, corals and habitats. These indicators were chosen because of their sensitivity to changes in water quality noted in the scientific literature (e.g., Rogers 1990, Larsen and Webb 2009). We report long-term averages and corresponding standard errors, plot annual averages, map indicator values and list inventories of coral and fish species identified among surveys. Similar data will be needed in the future to make rigorous comparisons and determine the magnitude of any impacts from watershed stabilization.