Modeling the Dynamics of Viral Evolution Considering Competition Within Individual Hosts and at Population Level: The Effects of Treatment

We consider two viral strains competing against each other within individual hosts (at cellular level) and at population level (for infecting hosts) by studying two cases. In the first case, the strains do not mutate into each other. In this case, we found that each individual in the population can be infected by only one strain and that co-existence in the population is possible only when the strain that has the greater basic intracellular reproduction number, R (0c) , has the smaller population number R (0p) . Treatment against the one strain shifts the population equilibrium toward the other strain in a complicated way (see Appendix B). In the second case, we assume that the strain that has the greater intracellular number R (0c) can mutate into the other strain. In this case, individual hosts can be simultaneously infected by both strains (co-existence within the host). Treatment shifts the prevalence of the two strains within the hosts, depending on the mortality induced by the treatment, which is, in turn, dependent upon the doses given to each individual. The relative proportions of the strains at the population level, under treatment, depend both on the relative proportions within the hosts (which is determined by the dosage of treatment) and on the number of individuals treated per unit time, that is, the rate of treatment. Implications for cases of real diseases are briefly discussed.

Does workforce participation empower women? Micro-level evidence from urban Bangladesh

Empirical studies on the impact of women’s paid jobs on their empowerment and welfare in the Bangladesh context are rare. The few studies on the issue to date have all been confined to the garment workers only although studies indicate that women’s workforce participation in Bangladesh has increased across-the-board. Besides, none of these studies has made an attempt to control for the non-working women and/or applied any statistical technique to control for the effects of other pertinent determinants of women’s empowerment and welfare such as education, age, religion and place of living. This study overcomes these drawbacks and presents alternative assessments of the link between women’s workforce participation and empowerment on the basis of survey data from the two largest cities in Bangladesh. While the generic assessment indicates that women’s paid jobs have positive implications for women’s participation in decisions on fertility, children’s education and healthcare as well as their possession and control of resources, the econometric assessment negates most of these observations. Women’s education, on the other hand, appears to be more important than their participation in the labour force. The study underlines the fact that by omitting other relevant explanatory variables from the analysis, the previous studies might have overestimated the impact of women’s paid work on their empowerment. Among other things, the paper also highlights the importance of women’s job category, religion and regional differences for women’s empowerment.

Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?