984 resultados para Service Interruption Modelling


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OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence and predictors of service disengagement in a treated epidemiological cohort of first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients. METHODS: The Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre (EPPIC) in Australia admitted 786 FEP patients from January 1998 to December 2000. Treatment at EPPIC is scheduled for 18 months. Data were collected from patients' files using a standardized questionnaire. Seven hundred four files were available; 44 were excluded, because of a non-psychotic diagnosis at endpoint (n=43) or missing data on service disengagement (n=1). Rate of service disengagement was the outcome of interest, as well as pre-treatment, baseline, and treatment predictors of service disengagement, which were examined via Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: 154 patients (23.3%) disengaged from service. A past forensic history (Hazard ratio [HR]=1.69; 95%CI 1.17-2.45), lower severity of illness at baseline (HR=0.59; 95%CI 0.48-0.72), living without family at discharge (HR=1.75; 95%CI 1.22-2.50) and persistence of substance use disorder during treatment (HR=2.30; 95%CI 1.45-3.66) were significant predictors of disengagement from service. CONCLUSIONS: While engagement strategies are a core element in the treatment of first-episode psychosis, particular attention should be paid to these factors associated with disengagement. Involvement of the family in the treatment process, and focusing on reduction of substance use, need to be pursued in early intervention services.

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The success story of hydroelectricity long influenced and dominated Swiss scholarly literature devoted to the history of technology. This means of conducting power, which emerged at the end of the 19th century and is still dominating today, has attracted much more attention than technologies that have been shadowed by its success. In spite of their important contribution to Swiss economic development, the distribution networks of pressurized water have been neglected by scholars. This article contributes to close this historiographic gap by analyzing the introduction of pressurized water distribution in 1876 in Lausanne, in the context of the building of the first Swiss cable funicular between Lausanne and Ouchy. This article shows how pressurized water distribution transformed socio-economic practices in the urban areas in which it was adopted. Indeed, this innovation, which allowed the use of distant hydraulic resources, enabled the rationalization of industrial and artisanal production as well as improved the density of the urban industrial base. By facilitating the introduction of electric lighting, pressurized water networks played a key role in the early development, and further successes, of the Swiss hydroelectric industry.

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In Guatemala, the Ministry of Health (MoH) began a vector control project with Japanese cooperation in 2000 to reduce the risk of Chagas disease infection. Rhodnius prolixus is one of the principal vectors and is targeted for elimination. The control method consisted of extensive residual insecticide spraying campaigns, followed by community-based surveillance with selective respraying. Interventions in nine endemic departments identified 317 villages with R. prolixus of 4,417 villages surveyed. Two cycles of residual insecticide spraying covered over 98% of the houses in the identified villages. Fourteen villages reinfestated were all resprayed. Between 2000-2003 and 2008, the number of infested villages decreased from 317 to two and the house infestation rate reduced from 0.86% to 0.0036%. Seroprevalence rates in 2004-2005, when compared with an earlier study in 1998, showed a significant decline from 5.3% to 1.3% among schoolchildren in endemic areas. The total operational cost was US$ 921,815, where the cost ratio between preparatory, attack and surveillance phases was approximately 2:12:1. In 2008, Guatemala was certified for interruption of Chagas disease transmission by R. prolixus. What facilitated the process was existing knowledge in vector control and notable commitment by the MoH, as well as political, managerial and technical support by external stakeholders.

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Certifying the absence of Chagas disease transmission by native vectors lacks scientific grounds and weakens long-term control-surveillance systems to the detriment of people living under risk conditions. Instead, a regular "certification of good practice" (including vector control-surveillance, case detection/patient care and blood safety) could help achieve sustained disease control.

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The presentation will focus on the reasons for deploying an e-reader loan service at a virtual university library as a part of an e-learning support system to aid user mobility, concentration of documentary and electronic resources, and ICT skills acquisition, using the example of the UOC pilot project and its subsequent consolidation. E-reader devices at the UOC are an extension of the Virtual Campus. They are offered as a tool to aid user mobility, access to documentary and electronic resources, and development of information and IT skills. The e-reader loan service began as a pilot project in 2009 and was consolidated in 2010. The UOC Library piloted the e-reader loan service from October to December 2009. The pilot project was carried out with 15 devices and involved 37 loans. The project was extended into 2010 with the same number of devices and 218 loans (October 2010). In 2011 the e-reader loan service is to involve 190 devices, thus offering an improved service. The reasons for deploying an e-reader loan service at the UOC are the following: a) to offer library users access to the many kinds of learning materials available at the UOC through a single device that facilitates student study and learning; b) to enhance access to and use of the e-book collections subscribed to by the UOC Library; c) to align with UOC strategy on the development of learning materials in multiple formats, and promote e-devices as an extension of the UOC Virtual Campus, and d) to increase UOC Library visibility within and beyond the institution. The presentation will conclude with an analysis of the key issues to be taken into account at a university library: the e-reader market, the unclear business and license model for e-book contents, and the library's role in promoting new reading formats to increase use of e-collections.

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In a recent article in the Reader’s Opinion, advantages and disadvantages of the certification processes of interrupted Chagas disease transmission (American trypanosomiasis) by native vector were discussed. Such concept, accepted by those authors for the case of endemic situations with introduced vectors, has been built on a long and laborious process by endemic countries and Subregional Initiatives for Prevention, Control and Treatment of Chagas, with Technical Secretariat of the Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization, to create a horizon target and goal to concentrate priorities and resource allocation and actions. With varying degrees of sucess, which are not replaceable for a certificate of good practice, has allowed during 23 years to safeguard the effective control of transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi not to hundreds of thousands, but millions of people at risk conditions, truly “the art of the possible.”

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[Sommaire] Introduction. - Concepts biochimiques de base. - Concepts génétiques de base. - Quelques méthodes d'analyse de base en biologie. - Analyses génétiques - La caisse à outils de base. - Analyses génétiques - La caisse à outils spécialisée. - Les traces biologiques dans leur utilisation pratique. - Tests indicatifs et recherche des traces. - Quelques éléments d'évaluation probabiliste. - Au-delà du laboratoire. - Glossaire. - Index

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BACKGROUND To describe the long term outcome of patients who interrupted highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) once, identify the variables associated with earlier need to re-start HAART, and the response when therapy was resumed. A retrospective observational cohort of 66 adult patients with HIV-1 infection who interrupted HAART with a CD4+cell count ≥ 350 cells/μL and undetectable viral load (VL) was performed. The pre-established CD4+ cell count for restarting therapy was 300cells/μL. Cox regression was used to analyse the variables associated with earlier HAART reinitiation. RESULTS The median follow-up was 209 weeks (range, 64-395). Rates of HIV-related or possible HIV-related events were 0.37 (one case of acute retroviral syndrome) and 1.49 per 100 patient-years, respectively. Two patients died after re-starting therapy and having reached undetectable VL. Three patients suffered a sexually transmitted disease while off therapy. Fifty patients (76%) resumed therapy after a median of 97 weeks (range, 17-267). Age, a nadir of CD4+ <250 cells/μL, and a mean VL during interruption of >10,000 copies/ml were independent predictors for earlier re-start. The intention-to-treat success rate of the first HAART resumed regimen was 85.4%. There were no differences by regimen used, nor between regimens that were the same as or different from the one that had been interrupted. CONCLUSIONS Our data suggest highly active antiretroviral therapy may be interrupted in selected patients because in these patients, when the HAART is restarted, the viral and clinical response may be achieved.

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The lethality of malaria in the extra-Amazonian region is more than 70 times higher than in Amazonia itself. Recently, several studies have shown that autochthonous malaria is not a rare event in the Brazilian southeastern states in the Atlantic Forest biome. Information about autochthonous malaria in the state of Rio de Janeiro (RJ) is scarce. This study aims to assess malaria cases reported to the Health Surveillance System of the State of Rio de Janeiro between 2000-2010. An average of 90 cases per year had parasitological malaria confirmation by thick smear. The number of malaria notifications due to Plasmodium falciparum increased over time. Imported cases reported during the period studied were spread among 51% of the municipalities (counties) of the state. Only 35 cases (4.3%) were autochthonous, which represents an average of 3.8 new cases per year. Eleven municipalities reported autochthonous cases; within these, six could be characterised as areas of residual or new foci of malaria from the Atlantic Forest system. The other 28 municipalities could become receptive for transmission reintroduction. Cases occurred during all periods of the year, but 62.9% of cases were in the first semester of each year. Assessing vulnerability and receptivity conditions and vector ecology is imperative to establish the real risk of malaria reintroduction in RJ.

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In this work we develop a viscoelastic bar element that can handle multiple rheo- logical laws with non-linear elastic and non-linear viscous material models. The bar element is built by joining in series an elastic and viscous bar, constraining the middle node position to the bar axis with a reduction method, and stati- cally condensing the internal degrees of freedom. We apply the methodology to the modelling of reversible softening with sti ness recovery both in 2D and 3D, a phenomenology also experimentally observed during stretching cycles on epithelial lung cell monolayers.

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In this paper we propose a parsimonious regime-switching approach to model the correlations between assets, the threshold conditional correlation (TCC) model. This method allows the dynamics of the correlations to change from one state (or regime) to another as a function of observable transition variables. Our model is similar in spirit to Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2009) and Pelletier (2006) but with the appealing feature that it does not suffer from the course of dimensionality. In particular, estimation of the parameters of the TCC involves a simple grid search procedure. In addition, it is easy to guarantee a positive definite correlation matrix because the TCC estimator is given by the sample correlation matrix, which is positive definite by construction. The methodology is illustrated by evaluating the behaviour of international equities, govenrment bonds and major exchange rates, first separately and then jointly. We also test and allow for different parts in the correlation matrix to be governed by different transition variables. For this, we estimate a multi-threshold TCC specification. Further, we evaluate the economic performance of the TCC model against a constant conditional correlation (CCC) estimator using a Diebold-Mariano type test. We conclude that threshold correlation modelling gives rise to a significant reduction in portfolio´s variance.