Biased representation of disturbance rates in the roadside sampling frame in boreal forests: implications for monitoring design

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is the principal source of data to inform researchers about the status of and trend for boreal forest birds. Unfortunately, little BBS coverage is available in the boreal forest, where increasing concern over the status of species breeding there has increased interest in northward expansion of the BBS. However, high disturbance rates in the boreal forest may complicate roadside monitoring. If the roadside sampling frame does not capture variation in disturbance rates because of either road placement or the use of roads for resource extraction, biased trend estimates might result. In this study, we examined roadside bias in the proportional representation of habitat disturbance via spatial data on forest “loss,” forest fires, and anthropogenic disturbance. In each of 455 BBS routes, the area disturbed within multiple buffers away from the road was calculated and compared against the area disturbed in degree blocks and BBS strata. We found a nonlinear relationship between bias and distance from the road, suggesting forest loss and forest fires were underrepresented below 75 and 100 m, respectively. In contrast, anthropogenic disturbance was overrepresented at distances below 500 m and underrepresented thereafter. After accounting for distance from road, BBS routes were reasonably representative of the degree blocks they were within, with only a few strata showing biased representation. In general, anthropogenic disturbance is overrepresented in southern strata, and forest fires are underrepresented in almost all strata. Similar biases exist when comparing the entire road network and the subset sampled by BBS routes against the amount of disturbance within BBS strata; however, the magnitude of biases differed. Based on our results, we recommend that spatial stratification and rotating panel designs be used to spread limited BBS and off-road sampling effort in an unbiased fashion and that new BBS routes be established where sufficient road coverage exists.

Statistical inference of OH concentrations and air mass dilution rates from successive observations of non-methane hydrocarbons in single air masses

Bayesian inference has been used to determine rigorous estimates of hydroxyl radical concentrations () and air mass dilution rates (K) averaged following air masses between linked observations of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) spanning the North Atlantic during the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation (ITCT)-Lagrangian-2K4 experiment. The Bayesian technique obtains a refined (posterior) distribution of a parameter given data related to the parameter through a model and prior beliefs about the parameter distribution. Here, the model describes hydrocarbon loss through OH reaction and mixing with a background concentration at rate K. The Lagrangian experiment provides direct observations of hydrocarbons at two time points, removing assumptions regarding composition or sources upstream of a single observation. The estimates are sharpened by using many hydrocarbons with different reactivities and accounting for their variability and measurement uncertainty. A novel technique is used to construct prior background distributions of many species, described by variation of a single parameter . This exploits the high correlation of species, related by the first principal component of many NMHC samples. The Bayesian method obtains posterior estimates of , K and following each air mass. Median values are typically between 0.5 and 2.0 × 106 molecules cm−3, but are elevated to between 2.5 and 3.5 × 106 molecules cm−3, in low-level pollution. A comparison of estimates from absolute NMHC concentrations and NMHC ratios assuming zero background (the “photochemical clock” method) shows similar distributions but reveals systematic high bias in the estimates from ratios. Estimates of K are ∼0.1 day−1 but show more sensitivity to the prior distribution assumed.

Pb-210-Ra-226 and Ra-228-Th-232 systematics in young arc lavas: implications for magma degassing and ascent rates

New data show that island arc rocks have (Pb-210/Ra-226)(o) ratios which range from as low as 0.24 up to 2.88. In contrast, (Ra-22S/Th-232) appears always within error of I suggesting that the large Ra-226-excesses observed in arc rocks were generated more than 30 years ago. This places a maximum estimate on melt ascent velocities of around 4000 m/year and provides further confidence that the Ra-226 excesses reflect deep (source) processes rather than shallow level alteration or seawater contamination. Conversely, partial melting must have occurred more than 30 years prior to eruption. The Pb-210 deficits are most readily explained by protracted magma degassing. Using published numerical models, the data suggest that degassing occurred continuously for periods up to several decades just prior to eruption but no link with eruption periodicity was found. Longer periods are required if degassing is discontinuous, less than 100% efficient or if magma is recharged or stored after degassing. The long durations suggest much of this degassing occurs at depth with implications for the formation of hydrothermal and copper-porphyry systems. A suite of lavas erupted in 1985-1986 from Sangeang Api volcano in the Sunda arc are characterised by deficits of Pb-210 relative to Ra-226 from which 6-8 years of continuous Rn-222 degassing would be inferred from recent numerical models. These data also form a linear (Pb-210)/Pb-(Ra-226)/Pb array which might be interpreted as a 71-year isochron. However, the array passes through the origin suggesting displacement downwards from the equiline in response to degassing and so the slope of the array is inferred not to have any age significance. Simple modelling shows that the range of (Ra-226)/Pb ratios requires thousands of years to develop consistent with differentiation occurring in response to cooling at the base of the crust. Thus, degassing post-dated, and was not responsible for magma differentiation. The formation, migration and extraction of gas bubbles must be extremely efficient in mafic magma whereas the higher viscosity of more siliceous magmas retards the process and can lead to Pb-210 excesses. A possible negative correlation between (Pb-210/Ra-226)(o) and SO2 emission rate requires further testing but may have implications for future eruptions. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Searching for the perfect surface area normalizing term - a comparison of BET surface area-, geometric surface area- and mass-normalized dissolution rates of anorthite and biotite

Dissolution rates were calculated for a range of grain sizes of anorthite and biotite dissolved under far from equilibrium conditions at pH 3, T = 20 degrees C. Dissolution rates were normalized to initial and final BET surface area, geometric surface area, mass and (for biotite only) geometric edge surface area. Constant (within error) dissolution rates were only obtained by normalizing to initial BET surface area for biotite. The normalizing term that gave the smallest variation about the mean for anorthite was initial BET surface area. In field studies, only current (final) surface area is measurable. In this study, final geometric surface area gave the smallest variation for anorthite dissolution rates and final geometric edge surface area for biotite dissolution rates. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Differentiating bone osteonal turnover rates by density fractionation; validation using the bomb C-14 atmospheric pulse

The density (BSG) of bone increases, at the osteon scale, during lifetime aging within the bone. In addition, post-mortem diagenetic change due to microbial attack produces denser bioapatite. Thus, fractionation of finely powdered bone on the basis of density should not only enable younger and older populations of osteons to be separated but also make it possible to separate out a less diagenetically altered component. We show that the density fractionation method can be used as a tool to investigate the isotopic history within an individual's lifetime, both in recent and archaeological contexts, and we use the bomb C-14 atmospheric pulse for validating the method.

Pb-210-Ra-226 and Ra-228-Th-232 systematics in young arc lavas: implications for magma degassing and ascent rates

New data show that island arc rocks have (Pb-210/Ra-226)(o) ratios which range from as low as 0.24 up to 2.88. In contrast, (Ra-22S/Th-232) appears always within error of I suggesting that the large Ra-226-excesses observed in arc rocks were generated more than 30 years ago. This places a maximum estimate on melt ascent velocities of around 4000 m/year and provides further confidence that the Ra-226 excesses reflect deep (source) processes rather than shallow level alteration or seawater contamination. Conversely, partial melting must have occurred more than 30 years prior to eruption. The Pb-210 deficits are most readily explained by protracted magma degassing. Using published numerical models, the data suggest that degassing occurred continuously for periods up to several decades just prior to eruption but no link with eruption periodicity was found. Longer periods are required if degassing is discontinuous, less than 100% efficient or if magma is recharged or stored after degassing. The long durations suggest much of this degassing occurs at depth with implications for the formation of hydrothermal and copper-porphyry systems. A suite of lavas erupted in 1985-1986 from Sangeang Api volcano in the Sunda arc are characterised by deficits of Pb-210 relative to Ra-226 from which 6-8 years of continuous Rn-222 degassing would be inferred from recent numerical models. These data also form a linear (Pb-210)/Pb-(Ra-226)/Pb array which might be interpreted as a 71-year isochron. However, the array passes through the origin suggesting displacement downwards from the equiline in response to degassing and so the slope of the array is inferred not to have any age significance. Simple modelling shows that the range of (Ra-226)/Pb ratios requires thousands of years to develop consistent with differentiation occurring in response to cooling at the base of the crust. Thus, degassing post-dated, and was not responsible for magma differentiation. The formation, migration and extraction of gas bubbles must be extremely efficient in mafic magma whereas the higher viscosity of more siliceous magmas retards the process and can lead to Pb-210 excesses. A possible negative correlation between (Pb-210/Ra-226)(o) and SO2 emission rate requires further testing but may have implications for future eruptions. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reconciling the electron counterstreaming and dropout occurrence rates with the heliospheric flux budget

Counterstreaming electrons (CSEs) are treated as signatures of closed magnetic flux, i.e., loops connected to the Sun at both ends. However, CSEs at 1 AU likely fade as the apex of a closed loop passes beyond some distance R, owing to scattering of the sunward beam along its continually increasing path length. The remaining antisunward beam at 1 AU would then give a false signature of open flux. Subsequent opening of a loop at the Sun by interchange reconnection with an open field line would produce an electron dropout (ED) at 1 AU, as if two open field lines were reconnecting to completely disconnect from the Sun. Thus EDs can be signatures of interchange reconnection as well as the commonly attributed disconnection. We incorporate CSE fadeout into a model that matches time-varying closed flux from interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) to the solar cycle variation in heliospheric flux. Using the observed occurrence rate of CSEs at solar maximum, the model estimates R ∼ 8–10 AU. Hence we demonstrate that EDs should be much rarer than CSEs at 1 AU, as EDs can only be detected when the juncture points of reconnected field lines lie sunward of the detector, whereas CSEs continue to be detected in the legs of all loops that have expanded beyond the detector, out to R. We also demonstrate that if closed flux added to the heliosphere by ICMEs is instead balanced by disconnection elsewhere, then ED occurrence at 1 AU would still be rare, contrary to earlier expectations.