A eficácia e segurança da fisioterapia respiratória no tratamento da bronquiolite aguda em crianças até 2 anos de idade: revisão sistemática

Contexto: a bronquiolite aguda é a principal patologia a afectar a criança nos primeiros 2 anos de vida, a fisioterapia respiratória é uma intervenção terapêutica utilizada com a intenção de melhorar o curso desta doença mantendo-se a incerteza sobre a sua eficácia. Objectivo: determinar a eficácia e segurança da fisioterapia respiratória em crianças com menos de 2 anos com bronquiolite aguda. Fontes de Informação: Medline (1966 a Agosto 2010), EMBASE(1990 a Agosto 2010), Pedro e Lilacs (1982 a Agosto 2010). Outra fonte de informação incluiu a bibliografia dos estudos obtidos. Selecção de estudos: estudos experimentais comparando a fisioterapia respiratória com cuidados habituais, em crianças com menos de 2 anos e bronquiolite aguda, em ventilação espontânea, em qualquer contexto. Estudos pré-experimentais ou observacionais com os mesmos participantes e intervenções foram admitidos complementarmente aos experimentais. Extracção de dados e análise: um investigador extraiu os dados dos artigos obtidos e avaliou o risco de viés. A eficácia e segurança da fisioterapia respiratória foram determinadas pelos seguintes outcomes: duração do internamento hospitalar ou do evento, variação de scores de severidade clínica, saturação periférica e suplementação de oxigénio, recidivas, recurso a antibióticos e efeitos deletérios ou deterioração clínica reportada. Síntese de dados: 6 estudos experimentais foram admitidos. As suas amostras provinham de criança internadas em hospital. As técnicas de fisioterapia respiratória foram comparadas com cuidados habituais. Nenhum estudo evidenciou melhoria dos outcomes de interesse na comparação entre grupos, excepto avaliações de curta duração da saturação periférica de oxigénio e scores de severidade clínica. 1 estudo reportou uma percentagem significativamente maior no grupo submetido a fisioterapia respiratória de crianças que vomitaram, tiveram uma desestabilização respiratória transitória, e na percepção de stress da criança pelos cuidadores. São relatadas ainda fracturas costais a causa de fisioterapia respiratória. Limitações: o risco de viés era alto em 2 estudos, baixo num estudo e indeterminado nos restantes. Conclusões: aparentemente a fisioterapia respiratória não é eficaz e pode produzir efeitos deletérios importantes, mas a evidência é pobre, carecendo de novos estudos.

Valor em risco (VAR - value at risk): metodologias não paramétricas

O VAR (Value at Risk) ,valor em risco, é a perda máxima provável de uma carteira para um nível de confiança determinado, num horizonte temporal especificado.

Fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death

OBJECTIVE: To introduce a fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death. METHODS: The study is based on the fuzziness of the variables newborn birth weight and gestational age at delivery. The inference used was Mamdani's method. Neonatologists were interviewed to estimate the risk of neonatal death under certain conditions and to allow comparing their opinions and the model values. RESULTS: The results were compared with experts' opinions and the Fuzzy model was able to capture the expert knowledge with a strong correlation (r=0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The linguistic model was able to estimate the risk of neonatal death when compared to experts' performance.

A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty

In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abordagem ao risco de crédito no âmbito do acordo de Basileia III em Portugal

Dissertação para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira

Risk of drug interaction: combination of antidepressants and other drugs

OBJECTIVE: To assess the frequency of combination of antidepressants with other drugs and risk of drug interactions in the setting public hospital units in Brazil. METHODS: Prescriptions of all patients admitted to a public hospital from November 1996 to February 1997 were surveyed from the hospital's data processing center in São Paulo, Brazil. A manual search of case notes of all patients admitted to the psychiatric unit from January 1993 to December 1995 and all patients registered in the affective disorders outpatient clinic in December 1996 was carried out. Patients taking any antidepressant were identified and concomitant use of drugs was checked. By means of a software program (Micromedex®) drug interactions were identified. RESULTS: Out of 6,844 patients admitted to the hospital, 63 (0.9%) used antidepressants and 16 (25.3%) were at risk of drug interaction. Out of 311 patients in the psychiatric unit, 63 (20.2%) used antidepressants and 13 of them (20.6%) were at risk. Out of 87 patients in the affective disorders outpatient clinic, 43 (49.4%) took antidepressants and 7 (16.2%) were at risk. In general, the use of antidepressants was recorded in 169 patients and 36 (21.3%) were at risk of drug interactions. Twenty different forms of combinations at risk of drug interactions were identified: four were classified as mild, 15 moderate and one severe interaction. CONCLUSION: In the hospital general units the number of drug interactions per patient was higher than in the psychiatric unit; and prescription for depression was lower than expected.

HTLV-I/II and blood donors: determinants associated with seropositivity in a low risk population

OBJECTIVE: Blood donors in Brazil have been routinely screened for HTLV-I/II since 1993. A study was performed to estimate the prevalence of HTLV-I/II infection in a low risk population and to better understand determinants associated with seropositivity. METHODS: HTLV-I/II seropositive (n=135), indeterminate (n=167) and seronegative blood donors (n=116) were enrolled in an open prevalence prospective cohort study. A cross-sectional epidemiological study of positive, indeterminate and seronegative HTLV-I/II subjects was conducted to assess behavioral and environmental risk factors for seropositivity. HTLV-I/II serological status was confirmed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (EIA) and Western blot (WB). RESULTS: The three groups were not homogeneous. HTLV-I/II seropositivity was associated to past blood transfusion and years of schooling, a marker of socioeconomic status, and use of non-intravenous illegal drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The study results reinforce the importance of continuous monitoring and improvement of blood donor selection process.

Dengue and the risk of urban yellow fever reintroduction in São Paulo State, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To propose a mathematical method for the estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number, R0, of urban yellow fever in a dengue-infested area. METHODS: The method is based on the assumption that, as the same vector (Aedes aegypti) causes both infections, all the quantities related to the mosquito, estimated from the initial phase of dengue epidemic, could be applied to yellow fever dynamics. It is demonstrated that R0 for yellow fever is, on average, 43% lower than that for dengue. This difference is due to the longer dengue viremia and its shorter extrinsic incubation period. RESULTS: In this study the analysis was expanded to the epidemiological situation of dengue in São Paulo in the year 2001. The total number of dengue cases increased from 3,582 in 2000 to 51,348 in 2001. It was then calculated R0 for yellow fever for every city which have shown R0 of dengue greater than 1. It was also estimated the total number of unprotected people living in highly risky areas for urban yellow fever. CONCLUSIONS: Currently there is a great number of non-vaccinated people living in Aedes aegypti infested area in the state of São Paulo.

Design of a new test chamber for evaluation of the toxicity of rubber infill

A test chamber was projected and built (according to ISO 16000-9 Standard) to simulate atmospheric conditions experienced by rubber infill (when applied in synthetic turf pitches) and measure accurately the airborne emissions of pollutants such as dusts and volatile organic compounds (VOC), as well as pollutants present in leachates. It should be pointed out that standard ISO 16000-9 is only concerned with the determination of the emission of VOC from building products and furnishing (not specific of synthetic turf materials), whereas other standards are concerned with the emission of leachates only. This procedure is to be considered as a technical option to the lysimeter "global turf system evaluation" when the rubber infill alone is to be evaluated. The advantage of the proposed option considering this "test chamber" is its simplicity and economy. This test chamber is actually installed and being used for tests in LAIST.

Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

A short-term risk management tool applied to OMEL electricity market using particle swarm optimization

Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.

IGRT com CBCT: o impacto na precisão em radioterapia

Mestrado em Radiações Aplicadas às Tecnologias da Saúde.

Role of malnutrition and parasite infections in the spatial variation in children’s anaemia risk in Northern Angola

Anaemia has a significant impact on child development and mortality and is a severe public health problem in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Nutritional and infectious causes of anaemia are geographically variable and anaemia maps based on information on the major aetiologies of anaemia are important for identifying communities most in need and the relative contribution of major causes. We investigated the consistency between ecological and individual-level approaches to anaemia mapping, by building spatial anaemia models for children aged ≤15 years using different modeling approaches. We aimed to a) quantify the role of malnutrition, malaria, Schistosoma haematobium and soil-transmitted helminths (STH) for anaemia endemicity in children aged ≤15 years and b) develop a high resolution predictive risk map of anaemia for the municipality of Dande in Northern Angola. We used parasitological survey data on children aged ≤15 years to build Bayesian geostatistical models of malaria (PfPR≤15), S. haematobium, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura and predict small-scale spatial variation in these infections. The predictions and their associated uncertainty were used as inputs for a model of anemia prevalence to predict small-scale spatial variation of anaemia. Stunting, PfPR≤15, and S. haematobium infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk. An estimated 12.5%, 15.6%, and 9.8%, of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria, S. haematobium, respectively. Spatial clusters of high risk of anaemia (>86%) were identified. Using an individual-level approach to anaemia mapping at a small spatial scale, we found that anaemia in children aged ≤15 years is highly heterogeneous and that malnutrition and parasitic infections are important contributors to the spatial variation in anemia risk. The results presented in this study can help inform the integration of the current provincial malaria control program with ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of neglected tropical diseases, such as urogenital schistosomiasis and STH infection.

Criação de valor, gestão de risco e as medidas de performance ajustadas ao risco: aplicação do RAROC - Risk Adjustment Return on Capital - ao grupo crédito agrícola

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.