Self-selection and risk selection on the Swiss health insurance market

Abstract This thesis presents three empirical studies in the field of health insurance in Switzerland. First we investigate the link between health insurance coverage and health care expenditures. We use claims data for over 60 000 adult individuals covered by a major Swiss Health Insurance Fund, followed for four years; the data show a strong positive correlation between coverage and expenditures. Two methods are developed and estimated in order to separate selection effects (due to individual choice of coverage) and incentive effects ("ex post moral hazard"). The first method uses the comparison between inpatient and outpatient expenditures to identify both effects and we conclude that both selection and incentive effects are significantly present in our data. The second method is based on a structural model of joint demand of health care and health insurance and makes the most of the change in the marginal cost of health care to identify selection and incentive effects. We conclude that the correlation between insurance coverage and health care expenditures may be decomposed into the two effects: 75% may be attributed to selection, and 25 % to incentive effects. Moreover, we estimate that a decrease in the coinsurance rate from 100% to 10% increases the marginal demand for health care by about 90% and from 100% to 0% by about 150%. Secondly, having shown that selection and incentive effects exist in the Swiss health insurance market, we present the consequence of this result in the context of risk adjustment. We show that if individuals choose their insurance coverage in function of their health status (selection effect), the optimal compensations should be function of the se- lection and incentive effects. Therefore, a risk adjustment mechanism which ignores these effects, as it is the case presently in Switzerland, will miss his main goal to eliminate incentives for sickness funds to select risks. Using a simplified model, we show that the optimal compensations have to take into account the distribution of risks through the insurance plans in case of self-selection in order to avoid incentives to select risks.Then, we apply our propositions to Swiss data and propose a simple econometric procedure to control for self-selection in the estimation of the risk adjustment formula in order to compute the optimal compensations.

False recognition following frontal lobe damage: The role of encoding factors

This paper reports a series of experiments on patient JB, a man with memory difficulties following damage to the left frontal lobe. The primary characteristic of JB's recognition memory impairment is a high level of false recognition together with a normal hit rate. The hypothesis that JB's false recognition reflects an over-reliance on familiarity is considered, but discounted on the basis that the false alarm rate is not affected by increasing the similarity between distracters and targets, and remains high when nonword stimuli are used. It is suggested, instead, that JB relies on a poorly focused memory description, which lacks item-specific detail but contains more general, low-level properties of the target items-these properties being held by many distracter items as well. This deficit is considered to arise because of damage to frontally mediated control processes involved in the selection of elements for memory encoding. An encoding deficit is supported by the fact that JB's false recognition is significantly reduced by orienting instructions, and is eliminated when his remote memory is subjected to recognition testing. In contrast, it is shown that manipulations at the level of retrieval (e.g. restricting the number of "old" responses) have little effect on his false recognition.

In vivo activation of PPAR target genes by RXR homodimers.

The ability of a retinoid X receptor (RXR) to heterodimerize with many nuclear receptors, including LXR, PPAR, NGF1B and RAR, underscores its pivotal role within the nuclear receptor superfamily. Among these heterodimers, PPAR:RXR is considered an important signalling mediator of both PPAR ligands, such as fatty acids, and 9-cis retinoic acid (9-cis RA), an RXR ligand. In contrast, the existence of an RXR/9-cis RA signalling pathway independent of PPAR or any other dimerization partner remains disputed. Using in vivo chromatin immunoprecipitation, we now show that RXR homodimers can selectively bind to functional PPREs and induce transactivation. At the molecular level, this pathway requires stabilization of the homodimer-DNA complexes through ligand-dependent interaction with the coactivator SRC1 or TIF2. This pathway operates both in the absence and in the presence of PPAR, as assessed in cells carrying inactivating mutations in PPAR genes and in wild-type cells. In addition, this signalling pathway via PPREs is fully functional and can rescue the severe hypothermia phenotype observed in fasted PPARalpha-/- mice. These observations have important pharmacological implications for the development of new rexinoid-based treatments.

Dark energy equation of state and anthropic selection

We explore the possibility that the dark energy is due to a potential of a scalar field and that the magnitude and the slope of this potential in our part of the Universe are largely determined by anthropic selection effects. We find that, in some models, the most probable values of the slope are very small, implying that the dark energy density stays constant to very high accuracy throughout cosmological evolution. In other models, however, the most probable values of the slope are such that the slow roll condition is only marginally satisfied, leading to a recollapse of the local universe on a time scale comparable to the lifetime of the Sun. In the latter case, the effective equation of state varies appreciably with the redshift, leading to a number of testable predictions.

Simple-sugar meals target GLUT2 at enterocyte apical membranes to improve sugar absorption: a study in GLUT2-null mice.

The physiological significance of the presence of GLUT2 at the food-facing pole of intestinal cells is addressed by a study of fructose absorption in GLUT2-null and control mice submitted to different sugar diets. Confocal microscopy localization, protein and mRNA abundance, as well as tissue and membrane vesicle uptakes of fructose were assayed. GLUT2 was located in the basolateral membrane of mice fed a meal devoid of sugar or containing complex carbohydrates. In addition, the ingestion of a simple sugar meal promoted the massive recruitment of GLUT2 to the food-facing membrane. Fructose uptake in brush-border membrane vesicles from GLUT2-null mice was half that of wild-type mice and was similar to the cytochalasin B-insensitive component, i.e. GLUT5-mediated uptake. A 5 day consumption of sugar-rich diets increased fructose uptake fivefold in wild-type tissue rings when it only doubled in GLUT2-null tissue. GLUT5 was estimated to contribute to 100 % of total uptake in wild-type mice fed low-sugar diets, falling to 60 and 40 % with glucose and fructose diets respectively; the complement was ensured by GLUT2 activity. The results indicate that basal sugar uptake is mediated by the resident food-facing SGLT1 and GLUT5 transporters, whose mRNA abundances double in long-term dietary adaptation. We also observe that a large improvement of intestinal absorption is promoted by the transient recruitment of food-facing GLUT2, induced by the ingestion of a simple-sugar meal. Thus, GLUT2 and GLUT5 could exert complementary roles in adapting the absorption capacity of the intestine to occasional or repeated loads of dietary sugars.

Habitat selection in zones of parapatric contact between the Common shrew Sorex araneus and Millet's shrew S. coronatus

(1) The common shrew Sorex araneus and Millet's shrew S. coronatus are sibling species.They are morphologically and genetically very similar but do not hybridize. Their parapatric distribution throughout south-western Europe, with a few narrow zones of distributional overlap, suggests that they are in competitive parapatry. (2) Two of these contact zones were studied; there was evidence of coexistence over periods of 2 years as well as habitat segregation. In both zones, the species segregated on litter thickness and humidity variables. (3) A simple analysis of spatial distribution showed that habitats visible in the field corresponded to the habitats selected by the species. Habitat selection was found throughout the annual life-cycle of the shrews. (4) In one contact zone, a removal experiment was performed to test whether habitat segregation is induced by interspecific interactions. The experiment showed that the species select habitats differentially when both are present and abandon habitat selection when their competitor is removed. (5) These results confirm the role of resource partitioning in promoting narrow rangesof distributional overlap between such parapatric species and qualitatively support the prediction of habitat selection theory that, in a two-species system, coexistence may be achieved by differential habitat selection to avoid competition. The results also support the view that the common shrew and Millet's shrew are in competitive parapatry.

Bioinformatic study of selection in animal genomes

Les gènes orthologues divergent sur plusieurs aspects durant l'évolution. Après une revue de la littérature cherchant à montrer de la divergence entre les orthologues de l'humain et de la souris, j'ai souligné les différentes causes de cette divergence. En comparant les gènes qui divergent en fonction, je n'ai pas trouvé de lien avec la divergence des séquences, pour cette raison je me suis penché sur l'étude de l'expression. Notamment, j'ai étudié le niveau, la spécificité ainsi que la présence/absence d'expression des orthologues humain-souris liés aux maladies Mendéliennes. Malgré les similarités trouvées entre l'humain et la souris, j'ai détecté une différence d'expression spécifique à une des deux espèces liée a un phénotype précis (gène essentiel/non-essentiel). Cela m'a permis de conclure que la différence sur le plan phénotypique entre l'humain et la souris est mieux expliquée par les patrons d'expression plutôt que le niveau d'expression ou la sélection. J'ai été également intéressé par l'évolution des séquences d'ADN codantes pour des protéines, en particulier sur le rôle de la sélection. J'ai commencé par une étude sur la fiabilité de détection de la sélection positive en comparant des séquences divergentes. J'ai trouvé, en utilisant le model de branche-site que la sélection peut être détectée sur des séquences qui ont divergé il y a plus de 500 millions d'années. J'ai analysé le biais de GC entres les séquences sans trouver une influence sur l'estimation de la sélection positive. Finalement, Je crois que ce travail est une première étape dans l'établissement d'un lien entre la sélection et les patrons d'expression des gènes chez les vertébrés.

Pattern selection in a lattice of pulse-coupled oscillators

We study spatio-temporal pattern formation in a ring of N oscillators with inhibitory unidirectional pulselike interactions. The attractors of the dynamics are limit cycles where each oscillator fires once and only once. Since some of these limit cycles lead to the same pattern, we introduce the concept of pattern degeneracy to take it into account. Moreover, we give a qualitative estimation of the volume of the basin of attraction of each pattern by means of some probabilistic arguments and pattern degeneracy, and show how they are modified as we change the value of the coupling strength. In the limit of small coupling, our estimative formula gives a pefect agreement with numerical simulations.

Selection of Salix myrsinifolia clones for biomass forestry in Finland

Summary

Growth decrease in Alpine whitefish: investigating the relative contribution of fishing induced selection and environmental change and its implication for conservation measures

La pression exercée par les activités humaines menace pratiquement tous les écosystèmes aquatiques du globe. Ainsi, sous l'effet de divers facteurs tels que la pollution, le réchauffement climatique ou encore la pêche industrielle, de nombreuses populations de poissons ont vu leurs effectifs chuter et divers changements morphologiques ont été observés. Dans cette étude, nous nous sommes intéressés à une menace particulière: la sélection induite par la pêche sur la croissance des poissons. En effet, la génétique des populations prédit que la soustraction régulière des individus les plus gros peut entraîner des modifications rapides de certains traits physiques comme la croissance individuelle. Cela a par ailleurs été observé dans de nombreuses populations marines ou lacustres, dont les populations de féras, bondelles et autres corégones des lacs suisses. Toutefois, malgré un nombre croissant d'études décrivant ce phénomène, peu de plans de gestion en tiennent compte, car l'importance des effets génétiques liés à la pêche est le plus souvent négligée par rapport à l'impact des changements environnementaux. Le but premier de cette étude a donc été de quantifier l'importance des facteurs génétiques et environnementaux. Dans le premier chapitre, nous avons étudié la population de palée du lac de Joux (Coregonus palaea). Nous avons déterminé les différentiels de sélection dus à la pêche, c'est-à-dire l'intensité de la sélection sur le taux de croissance, ainsi que les changements nets de croissance au cours du temps. Nous avons observé une baisse marquée de croissance et un différentiel de sélection important indiquant qu'au moins 30% de la diminution de croissance observée était due à la pression de sélection induite par la pêche. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous avons effectué les mêmes analyses sur deux espèces proches du lac de Brienz (C. albellus et C. fatioi) et avons observé des effets similaires dont l'intensité était spécifique à chaque espèce. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous avons analysé deux autres espèces : C. palaea et C. confusus du lac de Bienne, et avons constaté que le lien entre la pression de sélection et la diminution de croissance était influencé par des facteurs environnementaux. Finalement, dans le dernier chapitre, nous avons étudié les effets potentiels de différentes modifications de la taille des mailles des filets utilisés pour la pêche à l'aide de modèles mathématiques. Nous concluons que la pêche a un effet génétique non négligeable (et donc peu réversible) sur la croissance individuelle dans les populations observée, que cet effet est lié à la compétition pour la nourriture et à la qualité de l'environnement, et que certaines modifications simples de la taille des mailles des filets de pêche pourraient nettement diminuer l'effet de sélection et ainsi ralentir, voir même renverser la diminution de croissance observée.

Adaptive diversity in heterogeneous environments for populations regulated by a mixture of soft and hard selection

The stable co-existence of two haploid genotypes or two species is studied in a spatially heterogeneous environment submitted to a mixture of soft selection (within-patch regulation) and hard selection (outside-patch regulation) and where two kinds of resource are available. This is analysed both at an ecological time-scale (short term) and at an evolutionary time-scale (long term). At an ecological scale, we show that co-existence is very unlikely if the two competitors are symmetrical specialists exploiting different resources. In this case, the most favourable conditions are met when the two resources are equally available, a situation that should favour generalists at an evolutionary scale. Alternatively, low within-patch density dependence (soft selection) enhances the co-existence between two slightly different specialists of the most available resource. This results from the opposing forces that are acting in hard and soft regulation modes. In the case of unbalanced accessibility to the two resources, hard selection favours the most specialized genotype, whereas soft selection strongly favours the less specialized one. Our results suggest that competition for different resources may be difficult to demonstrate in the wild even when it is a key factor in the maintenance of adaptive diversity. At an evolutionary scale, a monomorphic invasive evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) always exists. When a linear trade-off exists between survival in one habitat versus that in another, this ESS lies between an absolute adjustment of survival to niche size (for mainly soft-regulated populations) and absolute survival (specialization) in a single niche (for mainly hard-regulated populations). This suggests that environments in agreement with the assumptions of such models should lead to an absence of adaptive variation in the long term.

Comparative genomics of the vertebrate insulin/TOR signal transduction pathway: A network-level analysis of selective pressures

Complexity of biological function relies on large networks of interacting molecules. However, the evolutionary properties of these networks are not fully understood. It has been shown that selective pressures depend on the position of genes in the network. We have previously shown that in the Drosophila insulin/target of rapamycin (TOR) signal transduction pathway there is a correlation between the pathway position and the strength of purifying selection, with the downstream genes being most constrained. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary dynamics of this well-characterized pathway in vertebrates. More specifically, we determined the impact of natural selection on the evolution of 72 genes of this pathway. We found that in vertebrates there is a similar gradient of selective constraint in the insulin/TOR pathway to that found in Drosophila. This feature is neither the result of a polarity in the impact of positive selection nor of a series of factors affecting selective constraint levels (gene expression level and breadth, codon bias, protein length, and connectivity). We also found that pathway genes encoding physically interacting proteins tend to evolve under similar selective constraints. The results indicate that the architecture of the vertebrate insulin/TOR pathway constrains the molecular evolution of its components. Therefore, the polarity detected in Drosophila is neither specific nor incidental of this genus. Hence, although the underlying biological mechanisms remain unclear, these may be similar in both vertebrates and Drosophila.

Comparative genomic analysis of the odorant-binding protein family in 12 Drosophila genomes: purifying selection and birth-and-death evolution

Background: Chemoreception is a widespread mechanism that is involved in critical biologic processes, including individual and social behavior. The insect peripheral olfactory system comprises three major multigene families: the olfactory receptor (Or), the gustatory receptor (Gr), and the odorant-binding protein (OBP) families. Members of the latter family establish the first contact with the odorants, and thus constitute the first step in the chemosensory transduction pathway.Results: Comparative analysis of the OBP family in 12 Drosophila genomes allowed the identification of 595 genes that encode putative functional and nonfunctional members in extant species, with 43 gene gains and 28 gene losses (15 deletions and 13 pseudogenization events). The evolution of this family shows tandem gene duplication events, progressive divergence in DNA and amino acid sequence, and prevalence of pseudogenization events in external branches of the phylogenetic tree. We observed that the OBP arrangement in clusters is maintained across the Drosophila species and that purifying selection governs the evolution of the family; nevertheless, OBP genes differ in their functional constraints levels. Finally, we detect that the OBP repertoire evolves more rapidly in the specialist lineages of the Drosophila melanogaster group (D. sechellia and D. erecta) than in their closest generalists.Conclusion: Overall, the evolution of the OBP multigene family is consistent with the birth-and-death model. We also found that members of this family exhibit different functional constraints, which is indicative of some functional divergence, and that they might be involved in some of the specialization processes that occurred through the diversification of the Drosophila genus.