Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Assessment of synovitis with contrast-enhanced MRI using a whole-joint semiquantitative scoring system in people with, or at high risk of, knee osteoarthritis: the MOST study

Objectives To introduce a comprehensive and reliable scoring system for the assessment of whole-knee joint synovitis based on contrast-enhanced (CE) MRI. Methods Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) is a cohort study of people with, or at high risk of, knee osteoarthritis (OA). Subjects are an unselected subset of MOST who volunteered for CE-MRI. Synovitis was assessed at 11 sites of the joint. Synovial thickness was scored semiquantitatively: grade 0 (< 2 mm), grade 1 (2-4 mm) and grade 2 (> 4 mm) at each site. Two musculoskeletal radiologists performed the readings and inter-and intrareader reliability was evaluated. Whole-knee synovitis was assessed by summing the scores from all sites. The association of Western Ontario and McMaster Osteoarthritis Index pain score with this summed score and with the maximum synovitis grade for each site was assessed. Results 400 subjects were included (mean age 58.8 +/- 7.0 years, body mass index 29.5 +/- 4.9 kg/m(2), 46% women). For individual sites, intrareader reliability (weighted kappa) was 0.67-1.00 for reader 1 and 0.60-1.00 for reader 2. Inter-reader agreement (kappa) was 0.67-0.92. For the summed synovitis scores, intrareader reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC)) was 0.98 and 0.96 for each reader and inter-reader agreement (ICC) was 0.94. Moderate to severe synovitis in the parapatellar subregion was associated with the higher maximum pain score (adjusted OR (95% CI), 2.8 (1.4 to 5.4) and 3.1 (1.2 to 7.9), respectively). Conclusions A comprehensive semiquantitative scoring system for the assessment of whole-knee synovitis is proposed. It is reliable and identifies knees with pain, and thus is a potentially powerful tool for synovitis assessment in epidemiological OA studies.

Subchondral Cystlike Lesions Develop Longitudinally in Areas of Bone Marrow Edema-like Lesions in Patients with or at Risk for Knee Osteoarthritis: Detection with MR Imaging-The MOST Study

Purpose: To assess the association of prevalent bone marrow edema-like lesions (BMLs) and full-thickness cartilage loss with incident subchondral cyst-like lesions (SCs) in the knee to evaluate the bone contusion versus synovial fluid intrusion theories of SC formation. Materials and Methods: The Multicenter Osteoarthritis study is a longitudinal study of individuals who have or are at risk for knee osteoarthritis. The HIPAA-compliant protocol was approved by the institutional review boards of all participating centers, and written informed consent was obtained from all participants. Magnetic resonance images were acquired at baseline and 30-month follow-up and read semiquantitatively by using the Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score system. The tibiofemoral and patellofemoral joints were subdivided into 14 subregions. BMLs and SCs were scored from 0 to 3. Cartilage morphology was scored from 0 to 6. The association of prevalent BMLs and full-thickness cartilage loss with incident SCs in the same subregion was assessed by using logistic regression with mutual adjustment for both predictors. Results: A total of 1283 knees were included. After adjustment for full-thickness cartilage loss, prevalent BMLs showed a strong and significant association with incident SCs in the same subregion, with an odds ratio of 12.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.9, 18.6). After adjustment for BMLs, prevalent full-thickness cartilage loss showed a significant but much less important association with incident SCs in the same subregion (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% CI: 1.0, 2.0). There was no apparent relationship between severity of full-thickness cartilage loss at baseline and incident SCs. Conclusion: Prevalent BMLs strongly predict incident SCs in the same subregion, even after adjustment for full-thickness cartilage loss, which supports the bone contusion theory of SC formation. (C) RSNA, 2010

Thyroid gland and cerebella lesions: New risk factors for sudden cardiac death in schizophrenia?

People with schizophrenia show a two to threefold increased risk to die prematurely than those without schizophrenia. Patients` life style, suicide, premature development of cardiovascular disease, high prevalence of metabolic syndrome and sudden cardiac death are well-known causes of the excess mortality. The exact pathophysiological cause of sudden death in schizophrenia is unknown, but it is likely that cardiac arrhythmia and respiratory abnormalities play potential role. Some antipsychotics may be associated with cardiovascular adverse events (e.g., QT interval prolongation) and lesions in specific brain regions, such as cerebella may be associated with respiratory abnormalities, suggesting that metabolic and brain dysfunction could lead to sudden cardiac death in patients with schizophrenia. However, exact knowledge regarding the association of these findings and schizophrenia is lacking. As subclinical hyperthyroidism has been linked with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and cerebella progressive atrophy has been observed in patients with schizophrenia, we propose in this paper that subclinical thyroid dysfunction and cerebella volume loss could be considered as new risk factor for sudden cardiac death in schizophrenia. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Short communication: Identification of subclinical cow mastitis pathogens in milk by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry

Subclinical mastitis is a common and easily disseminated disease in dairy herds. Its routine diagnosis via bacterial culture and biochemical identification is a difficult and time-consuming process. In this work, we show that matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) allows bacterial identification with high confidence and speed (1 d for bacterial growth and analysis). With the use of MALDI-TOF MS, 33 bacterial culture isolates from milk of different dairy cows from several farms were analyzed, and the results were compared with those obtained by classical biochemical methods. This proof-of-concept case demonstrates the reliability of MALDI-TOF MS bacterial identification, and its increased selectivity as illustrated by the additional identification of coagulase-negative Staphylococcus species and mixed bacterial cultures. Matrix-assisted laser desorption-ionization mass spectrometry considerably accelerates the diagnosis of mastitis pathogens, especially in cases of subclinical mastitis. More immediate and efficient animal management strategies for mastitis and milk quality control in the dairy industry can therefore be applied.