Integration of natural hazards, risk and climate change into spatial planning practices

Most countries of Europe, as well as many countries in other parts of the world, are experiencing an increased impact of natural hazards. It is often speculated, but not yet proven, that climate change might influence the frequency and magnitude of certain hydro-meteorological natural hazards. What has certainly been observed is a sharp increase in financial losses caused by natural hazards worldwide. Eventhough Europe appears to be a space that is not affected by natural hazards to such catastrophic extents as other parts of the world are, the damages experienced here are certainly increasing too. Natural hazards, climate change and, in particular, risks have therefore recently been put high on the political agenda of the EU. In the search for appropriate instruments for mitigating impacts of natural hazards and climate change, as well as risks, the integration of these factors into spatial planning practices is constantly receiving higher attention. The focus of most approaches lies on single hazards and climate change mitigation strategies. The current paradigm shift of climate change mitigation to adaptation is used as a basis to draw conclusions and recommendations on what concepts could be further incorporated into spatial planning practices. Especially multi-hazard approaches are discussed as an important approach that should be developed further. One focal point is the definition and applicability of the terms natural hazard, vulnerability and risk in spatial planning practices. Especially vulnerability and risk concepts are so many-fold and complicated that their application in spatial planning has to be analysed most carefully. The PhD thesis is based on six published articles that describe the results of European research projects, which have elaborated strategies and tools for integrated communication and assessment practices on natural hazards and climate change impacts. The papers describe approaches on local, regional and European level, both from theoretical and practical perspectives. Based on these, passed, current and future potential spatial planning applications are reviewed and discussed. In conclusion it is recommended to shift from single hazard assessments to multi-hazard approaches, integrating potential climate change impacts. Vulnerability concepts should play a stronger role than present, and adaptation to natural hazards and climate change should be more emphasized in relation to mitigation. It is outlined that the integration of risk concepts in planning is rather complicated and would need very careful assessment to ensure applicability. Future spatial planning practices should also consider to be more interdisciplinary, i.e. to integrate as many stakeholders and experts as possible to ensure the sustainability of investments.

Probiotic Bacillus amyloliquefaciens Strain H57 Improves the Performance of Pregnant and Lactating Ewes Fed a Diet Based on Palm Kernel Meal

Probiotic supplements are single or mixed strain cultures of live microorganisms that benefit the host by improving the properties of the indigenous microflora (Seo et al 2010). In a pilot study at the University of Queensland, Norton et al (2008) found that Bacillus amyloliquefaciens Strain H57 (H57), primarily investigated as an inoculum to make high-quality hay, improved feed intake and nitrogen utilisation over several weeks in pregnant ewes. The purpose of the following study was to further challenge the potential of H57 -to show it survives the steam-pelleting process, and that it improves the performance of ewes fed pellets based on an agro-industrial by-product with a reputation for poor palatability, palm kernel meal (PKM), (McNeill 2013). Thirty-two first-parity White Dorper ewes (day 37 of pregnancy, mean liveweight = 47.3 kg, mean age = 15 months) were inducted into individual pens in the animal house at the University of Queensland, Gatton. They were adjusted onto PKM-based pellets (g/kg drymatter (DM): PKM, 408; sorghum, 430; chick pea hulls, 103; minerals and vitamins; Crude protein, 128; ME: 11.1MJ/kg DM) until day 89 of pregnancy and thereafter fed a predominately pelleted diet incorporating with or without H57 spores (10 9 colony forming units (cfu)/kg pellet, as fed), plus 100g/ewe/day oaten chaff, until day 7 of lactation. From day 7 to 20 of lactation the pelleted component of the diet was steadily reduced to be replaced by a 50:50 mix of lucerne: oaten chaff, fed ad libitum, plus 100g/ewe/day of ground sorghum grain with or without H57 (10 9 cfu/ewe/day). The period of adjustment in pregnancy (day 37-89) extended beyond expectations due to some evidence of mild ruminal acidosis after some initially high intakes that were followed by low intakes. During that time the diet was modified, in an attempt to improve palatability, by the addition of oaten chaff and the removal of an acidifying agent (NH4Cl) that was added initially to reduce the risk of urinary calculi. Eight ewes were removed due to inappetence, leaving 24 ewes to start the trial at day 90 of pregnancy. From day 90 of pregnancy until day 63 of lactation, liveweights of the ewes and their lambs were determined weekly and at parturition. Feed intakes of the ewes were determined weekly. Once lambing began, 1 ewe was removed as it gave birth to twin lambs (whereas the rest gave birth to a single lamb), 4 due to the loss of their lambs (2 to dystocia), and 1 due to copper toxicity. The PKM pellets were suspected to be the cause of the copper toxicity and so were removed in early lactation. Hence, the final statistical analysis using STATISTICA 8 (Repeated measures ANOVA for feed intake, One-way ANOVA for liveweight change and birth weight) was completed on 23 ewes for the pregnancy period (n = 11 fed H57; n = 12 control), and 18 ewes or lambs for the lactation period (n = 8 fed H57; n = 10 control). From day 90 of pregnancy until parturition the H57 supplemented ewes ate 17 more DM (g/day: 1041 vs 889, sed = 42.4, P = 0.04) and gained more liveweight (g/day: 193 vs 24.0, sed = 25.4, P = 0.0002), but produced lambs with a similar birthweight (kg: 4.18 vs 3.99, sed = 0.19, P = 0.54). Over the 63 days of lactation the H57 ewes ate similar amounts of DM but grew slower than the control ewes (g/day: 1.5 vs 97.0, sed = 21.7, P = 0.012). The lambs of the H57 ewes grew faster than those of the control ewes for the first 21 days of lactation (g/day: 356 vs 265, sed = 16.5, P = 0.006). These data support the findings of Norton et al (2008) and Kritas et al (2006) that certain Bacillus spp. supplements can improve the performance of pregnant and lactating ewes. In the current study we particularly highlighted the capacity of H57 to stimulate immature ewes to continue to grow maternal tissue through pregnancy, possibly through an enhanced appetite, which appeared then to stimulate a greater capacity to partition nutrients to their lambs through milk, at least for the first few weeks of lactation, a critical time for optimising lamb survival. To conclude, H57 can survive the steam pelleting process to improve feed intake and maternal liveweight gain in late pregnancy, and performance in early lactation, of first-parity ewes fed a diet based on PKM.

Gene flow from transgenic plant populations: models and applications for risk assessment

The future use of genetically modified (GM) plants in food, feed and biomass production requires a careful consideration of possible risks related to the unintended spread of trangenes into new habitats. This may occur via introgression of the transgene to conventional genotypes, due to cross-pollination, and via the invasion of GM plants to new habitats. Assessment of possible environmental impacts of GM plants requires estimation of the level of gene flow from a GM population. Furthermore, management measures for reducing gene flow from GM populations are needed in order to prevent possible unwanted effects of transgenes on ecosystems. This work develops modeling tools for estimating gene flow from GM plant populations in boreal environments and for investigating the mechanisms of the gene flow process. To describe spatial dimensions of the gene flow, dispersal models are developed for the local and regional scale spread of pollen grains and seeds, with special emphasis on wind dispersal. This study provides tools for describing cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations and for estimating the levels of transgenic contamination of the conventional crops. For perennial populations, a modeling framework describing the dynamics of plants and genotypes is developed, in order to estimate the gene flow process over a sequence of years. The dispersal of airborne pollen and seeds cannot be easily controlled, and small amounts of these particles are likely to disperse over long distances. Wind dispersal processes are highly stochastic due to variation in atmospheric conditions, so that there may be considerable variation between individual dispersal patterns. This, in turn, is reflected to the large amount of variation in annual levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional populations. Even though land-use practices have effects on the average levels of cross-pollination between GM and conventional fields, the level of transgenic contamination of a conventional crop remains highly stochastic. The demographic effects of a transgene have impacts on the establishment of trangenic plants amongst conventional genotypes of the same species. If the transgene gives a plant a considerable fitness advantage in comparison to conventional genotypes, the spread of transgenes to conventional population can be strongly increased. In such cases, dominance of the transgene considerably increases gene flow from GM to conventional populations, due to the enhanced fitness of heterozygous hybrids. The fitness of GM plants in conventional populations can be reduced by linking the selectively favoured primary transgene to a disfavoured mitigation transgene. Recombination between these transgenes is a major risk related to this technique, especially because it tends to take place amongst the conventional genotypes and thus promotes the establishment of invasive transgenic plants in conventional populations.

Risk assessment for Puccinia psidii becoming established in South Africa

Puccinia psidii, the causal agent of myrtle rust, was first recorded from Latin America more than 100 years ago. It occurs on many native species of Myrtaceae in Latin America and also infects non-native plantation-grown Eucalyptus species in the region. The pathogen has gradually spread to new areas including Australia and most recently South Africa. The aim of this study was to consider the susceptibility of selected Eucalyptus genotypes, particularly those of interest to South African forestry, to infection by P. psidii. In addition, risk maps were compiled based on suitable climatic conditions and the occurrence of potential susceptible tree species. This made it possible to identify the season when P. psidii would be most likely to infect and to define the geographic areas where the rust disease would be most likely to establish in South Africa. As expected, variation in susceptibility was observed between eucalypt genotypes tested. Importantly, species commonly planted in South Africa show good potential for yielding disease-tolerant material for future planting. Myrtle rust is predicted to be more common in spring and summer. Coastal areas, as well as areas in South Africa with subtropical climates, are more conducive to outbreaks of the pathogen.

Evaluation of tomato production systems at Bowen in mitigating the risk of fruit fly infestation: a systems approach for market access

Queensland fruit flies Bactrocera tryoni and B. neohumeralis are considered major quarantine pests of tomato, a major crop in the horticultural production district around Bowen, North Queensland, Australia. Preharvest and/or postharvest treatments are required to meet the market access requirements of both domestic and international trading partners. The suspension from use of dimethoate and fenthion, the two insecticides used for fruit fly control, has resulted in the loss of both pre and postharvest uses in fresh tomato. Research undertaken quantitatively at Bowen evaluated the effectiveness of pre-harvest production systems without specific fruit fly controls and postharvest mitigation measures in reducing the risk of fruit fly infestation in tomato. A district-wide trapping using cue-lure baited traps was undertaken to determine fruit fly seasonal patterns in relation to the cropping seasons. A total of 17,626 field-harvested and 11,755 pack-house tomatoes were sampled from ten farms over three cropping seasons (2006-2009). The fruit were incubated and examined for fruit fly infestation. No fruit fly infested fruit were recorded over the three seasons in either the field or the pack-house samples. Statistical analyses showed that upper infestation levels were extremely low (between 0.025 and 0.062%) at the 95% confidence level. The trap catches showed a seasonal pattern in fruit fly activity, with low numbers during the autumn and winter months, rising slightly in spring and peaking in summer. This seasonal pattern was similar over the four seasons. The main two species of fruit fly caught were B. tryoni and B. neohumeralis. Based on the results, it is clear that the risk of fruit fly infestation is extremely low under the current production systems in the Bowen region.

Early post-operative mortality after major lower limb amputation: A systematic review of population and regional based studies

OBJECTIVE: Lower limb amputation is often associated with a high risk of early post-operative mortality. Mortality rates are also increasingly being put forward as a possible benchmark for surgical performance. The primary aim of this systematic review is to investigate early post-operative mortality following a major lower limb amputation in population/regional based studies, and reported factors that might influence these mortality outcomes. METHODS: Embase, PubMed, Cinahl and Psycinfo were searched for publications in any language on 30 day or in hospital mortality after major lower limb amputation in population/regional based studies. PRISMA guidelines were followed. A self developed checklist was used to assess quality and susceptibility to bias. Summary data were extracted for the percentage of the population who died; pooling of quantitative results was not possible because of methodological differences between studies. RESULTS: Of the 9,082 publications identified, results were included from 21. The percentage of the population undergoing amputation who died within 30 days ranged from 7% to 22%, the in hospital equivalent was 4-20%. Transfemoral amputation and older age were found to have a higher proportion of early post-operative mortality, compared with transtibial and younger age, respectively. Other patient factors or surgical treatment choices related to increased early post-operative mortality varied between studies. CONCLUSIONS: Early post-operative mortality rates vary from 4% to 22%. There are very limited data presented for patient related factors (age, comorbidities) that influence mortality. Even less is known about factors related to surgical treatment choices, being limited to amputation level. More information is needed to allow comparison across studies or for any benchmarking of acceptable mortality rates. Agreement is needed on key factors to be reported.

Prevention and management of foot problems in diabetes: A summary guidance for daily practice 2015, based on the IWGDF Guidance Documents

In this 'Summary Guidance for Daily Practice', we describe the basic principles of prevention and management of foot problems in persons with diabetes. This summary is based on the International Working Group on the Diabetic Foot (IWGDF) Guidance 2015. There are five key elements that underpin prevention of foot problems: (1) identification of the at-risk foot; (2) regular inspection and examination of the at-risk foot; (3) education of patient, family and healthcare providers; (4) routine wearing of appropriate footwear, and; (5) treatment of pre-ulcerative signs. Healthcare providers should follow a standardized and consistent strategy for evaluating a foot wound, as this will guide further evaluation and therapy. The following items must be addressed: type, cause, site and depth, and signs of infection. There are seven key elements that underpin ulcer treatment: (1) relief of pressure and protection of the ulcer; (2) restoration of skin perfusion; (3) treatment of infection; (4) metabolic control and treatment of co-morbidity; (5) local wound care; (6) education for patient and relatives, and; (7) prevention of recurrence. Finally, successful efforts to prevent and manage foot problems in diabetes depend upon a well-organized team, using a holistic approach in which the ulcer is seen as a sign of multi-organ disease, and integrating the various disciplines involved.

Family-based interventions in preventing children and adolescents from using tobacco: A systematic review and meta-analysis

- Background Tobacco is the main preventable cause of death and disease worldwide. Adolescent smoking is increasing in many countries with poorer countries following the earlier experiences of affluent countries. Preventing adolescents starting smoking is crucial to decreasing tobacco-related illness. - Objective To assess effectiveness of family-based interventions alone and combined with school-based interventions to prevent children and adolescents from initiating tobacco use. - Data Sources 14 bibliographic databases and the Internet, journals hand-searched, experts consulted. - Study Eligibility Criteria, Participants, and Interventions Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with children or adolescents and families, interventions to prevent starting tobacco use, follow-up ≥ 6 months. - Study Appraisal/Synthesis methods Abstracts/titles independently assessed and data independently entered by two authors. Risk-of-bias assessed with the Cochrane Risk-of-Bias tool. - Results Twenty-seven RCTs were included. Nine trials of never-smokers compared to a control provided data for meta-analysis. Family intervention trials had significantly fewer students who started smoking. Meta-analysis of twoRCTs of combined family and school interventions compared to school only, showed additional significant benefit. The common feature of effective high intensity interventions was encouraging authoritative parenting. - Limitations Only 14 RCTs provided data for meta-analysis (about 1/3 of participants). Of the 13 RCTs which did not provide data for meta-analysis eight compared a family intervention to no intervention and one found significant effects, and five compared a family + school intervention to a school intervention and none found additional significant effects. - Conclusions and Implications of Key Findings There is moderate quality evidence that family-based interventions prevent children and adolescents starting to smoke.

An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA)problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max-min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga-Bhadra river system in India.

Heparin versus 0.9% sodium chloride intermittent flushing for the prevention of occlusion in long term central venous catheters in infants and children: A systematic review

Background Around the world, guidelines and clinical practice for the prevention of complications associated with central venous catheters (CVC) vary greatly. To prevent occlusion, most institutions recommend the use of heparin when the CVC is not in use. However, there is debate regarding the need for heparin and evidence to suggest normal saline may be as effective. The use of heparin is not without risk, may be unnecessary and is also associated with increased costs. Objectives To assess the clinical effects (benefits and harms) of heparin versus normal saline to prevent occlusion in long-term central venous catheters in infants, children and adolescents. Design A Cochrane systematic review of randomised controlled trials was undertaken. - Data sources: The Cochrane Vascular Group Specialised Register (including MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE and AMED) and the Cochrane Register of Studies were searched. Hand searching of relevant journals and reference lists of retrieved articles was also undertaken. - Review Methods: Data were extracted and appraisal undertaken. We included studies that compared the efficacy of normal saline with heparin to prevent occlusion. We excluded temporary CVCs and peripherally inserted central catheters. Rate ratios per 1000 catheter days were calculated for two outcomes, occlusion of the CVC, and CVC-associated blood stream infection. Results Three trials with a total of 245 participants were included in this review. The three trials directly compared the use of normal saline and heparin. However, between studies, all used different protocols with various concentrations of heparin and frequency of flushes. The quality of the evidence ranged from low to very low. The estimated rate ratio for CVC occlusion per 1000 catheter days between the normal saline and heparin group was 0.75 (95% CI 0.10 to 5.51, two studies, 229 participants, very low quality evidence). The estimated rate ratio for CVC-associated blood stream infection was 1.48 (95% CI 0.24 to 9.37, two studies, 231 participants; low quality evidence). Conclusions It remains unclear whether heparin is necessary for CVC maintenance. More well-designed studies are required to understand this relatively simple, but clinically important question. Ultimately, if this evidence were available, the development of evidenced-based clinical practice guidelines and consistency of practice would be facilitated.

Bioavailability and toxicity of chemicals in inland waters : the importance of prevailing water chemistry and implications for risk assessment

Physicochemical characterization of freshwater samples from Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Spain revealed that water hardness and pH decreased and the quantity and quality of humic substances changed considerably in this geographical series from south to north. Since the ambient water chemistry may affect the availability of chemicals, the total aqueous concentration of a chemical may be insufficient to predict the bioconcentration, subsequent biological response, and thus risk. In addition, organisms could be affected directly by water quality characteristics. In this context the main objective of this thesis was to investigate the bioavailability of selected ecotoxicologically relevant chemicals (cadmium, benzo(a)pyrene, and pyrene) in various European surface waters and to show the importance of certain water chemistry characteristics in interpreting the bioavailability and toxicity results. The bioavailability of cadmium to Daphnia magna was examined in very soft humic lake water. Humic substances as natural ligands decreased the free and bioavailable proportion of cadmium in soft lake water. As a consequence the uptake rate and the acute toxicity decreased compared with the humic-free reference. When the hardness of humic lake water was artificially elevated, the acute toxicity of cadmium decreased, although the proportion of free cadmium increased. The decreased bioavailability of cadmium in hard water was a result of effective competition for uptake by the hardness cations, especially calcium ions. The protective role of humic substances and water hardness against cadmium toxicity was also observed in Lumbriculus variegatus, although D. magna was more sensitive to cadmium. The bioavailability of two polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), pyrene and benzo(a)pyrene, was studied in European surface waters of varying water chemistry. Humic substances acted as complexing ligands with both PAHs, but the bioavailability of the more lipophilic benzo(a)pyrene to D. magna was affected more by humic substances than that of pyrene. In addition, not only the quantity of humic substances, but also their quality affected the bioavailability of benzo(a)pyrene. Nevertheless, the humic substances played a protective role in the photo-enhanced toxicity of pyrene under UV-B radiation. Water hardness had no effect on pyrene toxicity. Results indicate that the typical physicochemical characteristics of boreal freshwaters should be considered carefully in local and regional risk assessment of chemicals concerning the Fennoscandian region.

Human error risk management methodology for rail crack incidents

The paper presents an innovative approach to modelling the causal relationships of human errors in rail crack incidents (RCI) from a managerial perspective. A Bayesian belief network is developed to model RCI by considering the human errors of designers, manufactures, operators and maintainers (DMOM) and the causal relationships involved. A set of dependent variables whose combinations express the relevant functions performed by each DMOM participant is used to model the causal relationships. A total of 14 RCI on Hong Kong’s mass transit railway (MTR) from 2008 to 2011 are used to illustrate the application of the model. Bayesian inference is used to conduct an importance analysis to assess the impact of the participants’ errors. Sensitivity analysis is then employed to gauge the effect the increased probability of occurrence of human errors on RCI. Finally, strategies for human error identification and mitigation of RCI are proposed. The identification of ability of maintainer in the case study as the most important factor influencing the probability of RCI implies the priority need to strengthen the maintenance management of the MTR system and that improving the inspection ability of the maintainer is likely to be an effective strategy for RCI risk mitigation.

Predictive technology and natural hazards: Risk for Australian planning authorities?

Purpose The object of this paper is to examine whether the improvements in technology that enhance community understanding of the frequency and severity of natural hazards also increased the risk of potential liability of planning authorities in negligence. In Australia, the National Strategy imposes a resilience based approach to disaster management and stresses that responsible land use planning can reduce or prevent the impact of natural hazards upon communities. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyses how the principles of negligence allocate responsibility for loss suffered by a landowner in a hazard prone area between the landowner and local government. Findings The analysis in this paper concludes that despite being able to establish a causal link between the loss suffered by a landowner and the approval of a local authority to build in a hazard prone area, it would be in the rarest of circumstances a negligence action may be proven. Research limitations/implications The focus of this paper is on planning policies and land development, not on the negligent provision of advice or information by the local authority. Practical implications This paper identifies the issues a landowner may face when seeking compensation from a local authority for loss suffered due to the occurrence of a natural hazard known or predicted to be possible in the area. Originality/value The paper establishes that as risk managers, local authorities must place reliance upon scientific modelling and predictive technology when determining planning processes in order to fulfil their responsibilities under the National Strategy and to limit any possible liability in negligence.

Immune response to insulin and changes in the gut immune system in children with or at risk for type 1 diabetes

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is considered to be an autoimmune disease. The cause of T1D is the destruction of insulin-producing β-cells in the pancreatic islets. The autoimmune nature of T1D is characterized by the presence of autoreactive T-cells and autoantibodies against β-cell molecules. Insulin is the only β-cell-specific autoantigen associated with T1D but the insulin autoantibodies (IAAs) are difficult to measure with proper sensitivity. T-cell assays for detection of autoreactive T-cells, such as insulin-specific T-cells, have also proven to be difficult to perform. The genetic risk of T1D is associated with the HLA gene region but the environmental factors also play an important role. The most studied environmental risk factors of T1D are enteroviruses and cow's milk which both affect the immune system through the gut. One hypothesis is that the insulin-specific immune response develops against bovine insulin in cow's milk during early infancy and later spreads to include human insulin. The aims of this study were to determine whether the separation of immunoglobulin (Ig)G from plasma would improve the sensitivity of the IAA assay and how insulin treatment affects the cellular immune response to insulin in newly diagnosed patients. Furthermore, the effect of insulin concentration in mother's breast milk on the development of antibodies to dietary insulin in the child was examined. Small intestinal biopsies were also obtained from children with T1D to characterize any immunological changes associated with T1D in the gut. The isolation of the IgG fraction from the plasma of T1D patients negative for plasma IAA led to detectable IAA levels that exceeded those in the control children. Thus the isolation of IgG may improve the sensitivity of the IAA assay. The effect of insulin treatment on insulin-specific T-cells was studied by culturing peripheral blood mononuclear cells with insulin. The insulin stimulation induced increased expression of regulatory T-cell markers, such as Foxp3, in those patients treated with insulin than in patients examined before initiating insulin treatment. This finding suggests that insulin treatment in patients with T1D stimulates regulatory T-cells in vivo and this may partly explain the difficulties in measuring autoantigen-specific T-cell responses in recently diagnosed patients. The stimulation of regulatory T-cells by insulin treatment may also explain the remission period often seen after initiating insulin treatment. In the third study we showed that insulin concentration in mother's breast milk correlates inversely with the levels of bovine insulin-specific antibodies in those infants who were exposed to cow's milk proteins in their diet, suggesting that human insulin in breast milk induces tolerance to dietary bovine insulin. However, in infants who later developed T1D-associated autoantibodies, the insulin concentration in their mother's breast milk was increased. This finding may indicate that in those children prone to β-cell autoimmunity, breast milk insulin does not promote tolerance to insulin. In the small intestinal biopsies the presence of several immunological markers were quantified with the RT-PCR. From these markers the expression of the interleukin (IL)-18 cytokine was significantly increased in the gut in patients with T1D compared with children with celiac disease or control children. The increased IL-18 expression lends further support for the hypothesis that the gut immune system is involved in the pathogenesis of T1D.

Polymorphic low penetrance genes and breast cancer : The role of genes involved in metabolism of xenobiotics, estrogens and reactive oxygen species

Various endogenous and exogenous factors have been reported to increase the risk of breast cancer. Many of those are related to prolonged lifetime exposure to estrogens. Furthermore, a positive family history of breast cancer and certain benign breast diseases are known to increase the risk of breast cancer. The role of lifestyle factors, such as use of alcohol and smoking has been an area of intensive study. Alcohol has been found to increase the risk of breast cancer, whereas the role of smoking has remained obscure. A multitude of enzymes are involved in the metabolism of estrogens and xenobiotics including the carcinogens found in tobacco smoke. Many of the metabolic enzymes exhibit genetic polymorphisms that can lead to inter-individual differences in their abilities to modify hazardous substrates. Therefore, in presence of a given chemical exposure, one subgroup of women may be more susceptible to breast carcinogenesis, since they carry unfavourable forms of the polymorphic genes involved in the metabolism of the chemical. In this work, polymorphic genes encoding for cytochrome P450 (CYP) 1A1 and 1B1, N-acetyl transferase 2 (NAT2), sulfotransferase 1A1 (SULT1A1), manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD) and vitamin D receptor (VDR) were investigated in relation to breast cancer susceptibility in a Finnish population. CYP1A1, CYP1B1 and SULT1A1 are involved in the metabolism of both estrogens and xenobiotics, whereas NAT2 is involved only in the latter. MnSOD is an antioxidant enzyme protecting cells from oxidative damage. VDR, in turn, mediates the effects of the active form of vitamin D (1,25(OH)2D3, calcitriol) on maintenance of calcium homeostasis and it has anti-proliferative effects in many cancer cells. A 1.3-fold (95% CIs 1.01-1.73) increased risk of breast cancer was seen among women who carried the NAT2 slow acetylator genotype and a 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.1-2.0) risk was found in women with a MnSOD variant A allele containing genotypes compared to women with the NAT2 rapid acetylator genotype or to those with the MnSOD VV genotype, respectively. Instead, women with the VDR a allele containing genotypes were found to be at a decreased risk for breast cancer (OR 0.73; 95% CI 0.54-0.98) compared to women with the AA genotype. No significant overall associations were found between SULT1A1 or CYP genotypes and breast cancer risk, whereas a combination of the CYP1B1 432Val allele containing genotypes with the NAT2 slow acetylator genotypes posed a 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.03-2.24) increased risk. Moreover, NAT2 slow acetylator genotype was found to be confined to women with an advanced stage of breast cancer (stages III and IV). Further evidence for the association of xenobiotic metabolising genes with breast cancer risk was found when active smoking was taken into account. Women who smoked less than 10 cigarettes/day and carried at least one CYP1B1 432Val variant allele, were at 3.1-fold (95% CI 1.32-7.12) risk of breast cancer compared to women who smoked the same amount but did not carry the variant allele. Furthermore, the risk was significantly increased with increasing number of the CYP1B1 432Val alleles (p for trend 0.005). In addition, women who smoked less than 5 pack-years and carried the NAT2 slow acetylator genotype were at a 2.6-fold (95% CI 1.01-6.48) increased risk of breast cancer compared to women who smoked the same amount but carried the NAT2 rapid acetylator genotype. Furthermore, the combination of the CYP1B1 432Val allele and the NAT2 slow acetylator genotype increased the risk of breast cancer by 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.11-5.45) among ever smokers. Instead, the MnSOD A allele was found to be a risk factor among postmenopausal long-term smokers (>15 years of smoking) (OR 5.1; 95% CI 1.4-18.4) or among postmenopausal women who had smoked more than 10 cigarettes/day (OR 5.5; 95% CI 1.3-23.4) compared to women who had similar smoking habits but carried the MnSOD V/V genotype. Similarly, within subgroups of postmenopausal women who were using oral contraceptives, hormone replacement therapy or alcohol, women carrying the MnSOD A allele genotypes seemed to be at increased risk of breast cancer compared to women with the MnSOD V/V genotype. A positive family history of breast cancer and high parity were shown to be inversely associated with breast cancer risk among women carrying the VDR ApaI a allele or among premenopausal women carrying the SULT1A1*2 allele, respectively.