Weakened tropical circulation and reduced precipitation in response to geoengineering

Geoengineering by injection of reflective aerosols into the stratosphere has been proposed as a way to counteract the warming effect of greenhouse gases by reducing the intensity of solar radiation reaching the surface. Here, climate model simulations are used to examine the effect of geoengineering on the tropical overturning circulation. The strength of the circulation is related to the atmospheric static stability and has implications for tropical rainfall. The tropical circulation is projected to weaken under anthropogenic global warming. Geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosol does not mitigate this weakening of the circulation. This response is due to a fast adjustment of the troposphere to radiative heating from the aerosol layer. This effect is not captured when geoengineering is modelled as a reduction in total solar irradiance, suggesting caution is required when interpreting model results from solar dimming experiments as analogues for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering.

CASCADE: An Agent Based Framework For Modeling The Dynamics Of Smart Electricity Systems

The Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Agents and Distributed Energy (CASCADE) project is developing a framework based on Agent Based Modelling (ABM). The CASCADE Framework can be used both to gain policy and industry relevant insights into the smart grid concept itself and as a platform to design and test distributed ICT solutions for smart grid based business entities. ABM is used to capture the behaviors of diff erent social, economic and technical actors, which may be defi ned at various levels of abstraction. It is applied to understanding their interactions and can be adapted to include learning processes and emergent patterns. CASCADE models ‘prosumer’ agents (i.e., producers and/or consumers of energy) and ‘aggregator’ agents (e.g., traders of energy in both wholesale and retail markets) at various scales, from large generators and Energy Service Companies down to individual people and devices. The CASCADE Framework is formed of three main subdivisions that link models of electricity supply and demand, the electricity market and power fl ow. It can also model the variability of renewable energy generation caused by the weather, which is an important issue for grid balancing and the profi tability of energy suppliers. The development of CASCADE has already yielded some interesting early fi ndings, demonstrating that it is possible for a mediating agent (aggregator) to achieve stable demandfl attening across groups of domestic households fi tted with smart energy control and communication devices, where direct wholesale price signals had previously been found to produce characteristic complex system instability. In another example, it has demonstrated how large changes in supply mix can be caused even by small changes in demand profi le. Ongoing and planned refi nements to the Framework will support investigation of demand response at various scales, the integration of the power sector with transport and heat sectors, novel technology adoption and diffusion work, evolution of new smart grid business models, and complex power grid engineering and market interactions.

Financial services for the poor within the formal/informal nexus in sub-Saharan Africa

This paper draws upon fieldwork undertaken across Kenya, Zambia, Mozambique and South Africa to present a reflective overview of the use of financial services amongst the poorest members of society. It considers the role that access to a portfolio of financial products and services may have as a contributory factor in poverty alleviation, but also how inappropriate use of these mechanisms may exacerbate a descent into poverty. This work draws upon the notions of poverty pools and the rise of fall of low income households in and out of poverty, alongside the contributory nature of vicious cycles of economic and political poverty. Drawing on fieldwork experiences it presents a synopsis of the types of financial mechanisms commonly in use on the African continent, as well as examples of public, private and civil society partnerships that are producing services specifically tailored for those in extreme and absolute poverty.

Analysis of red pigments from the Neolithic sites of Çatalhöyük in Turkey and Sheikh-e Abad in Iran

Samples containing red pigment have been collected from two different archaeological sites dating to the Neolithic (Çatalhöyük in Turkey and Sheikh-e Abad in Iran) and have been analysed by a range of techniques. Sub-samples were examined by IR spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction, whilst thin sections were studied using optical polarising microscopy, synchrotron based IR microscopy and environmental scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray analysis. Thin layers of red paint in a wall painting from Çatalhöyük were found to contain ochre (hematite and clay) as well as an unexpected component, grains of red and colourless obsidian, which have not been identified in any previous studies of the wall paintings at Çatalhöyük. These small grains of obsidian may have improved the reflective properties of the paint and made the artwork more vivid in the darkness of the buildings. Analysis of a roughly shaped ball of red sediment found on a possible working surface at Sheikh-e Abad revealed that the cause of the red colouring was the mineral hematite, which was probably from a source of terra rossa sediment in the local area. The results of this work suggest it is unlikely that this had been altered by the Neolithic people through mixing with other minerals.

Contrasting cases

This paper concerns the philosophical significance of a choice about how to design the context-shifting experiments used by contextualists and anti-intellectualists: Should contexts be judged jointly, with contrast, or separately, without contrast? Findings in experimental psychology suggest (1) that certain contextual features are difficult to evaluate when considered separately, and there are reasons to think that one feature that interests contextualists and anti- intellectualists—stakes or importance—is such a difficult to evaluate attribute, and (2) that joint evaluation of contexts can yield judgments that are more reflective and rational in certain respects. With those two points in mind, a question is raised about what source of evidence provides better support for philosophical theories of how contextual features affect knowledge ascriptions and evidence: Should we prefer evidence consisting of "ordinary" judgments, or more reflective, perhaps more rational judgments? That question is answered in relation to different accounts of what such theories aim to explain, and it is concluded that evidence from contexts evaluated jointly should be an important source of evidence for contextualist and anti-intellectualist theories, a conclusion that is at odds with the methodology of some recent studies in experimental epistemology.

A gestalt generated from grounded theory concerning intuition in IS research

Intuition is an important and under-researched concept in information systems. Prior exploratory research has shown that that there is potential to characterize the use of intuition in academic information systems research. This paper extends this research to all of the available issues of two leading IS journals with the aim of reaching an approximation of theoretical saturation. Specifically, the entire text of MISQ and ISR was reviewed for the years 1990 through 2009 using searchable PDF versions of these publications. All references to intuition were coded on a basis consistent with Grounded Theory, interpreted as a gestalt and represented as a mind-map. In the period 1990-2009, 681 incidents of the use of "intuition", and related terms were found in the articles reviewed, representing a greater range of codes than prior research. In addition, codes were assigned to all issues of MIS Quarterly from commencement of publication to the end of the 2012 publication year to support the conjecture that coding saturation has been approximated. The most prominent use of the term of "intuition" was coded as "Intuition as Authority" in which intuition was used to validate a statement, research objective or a finding; representing approximately 34 per cent of codes assigned. In research articles where mathematical analysis was presented, researchers not infrequently commented on the degree to which a mathematical formulation was "intuitive"; this was the second most common coding representing approximately 16 per cent of the codes. The possibly most impactful use of the term "intuition" was "Intuition as Outcome", representing approximately 7 per cent of all coding, which characterized research results as adding to the intuitive understanding of a research topic or phenomena.This research aims to contribute to a greater theoretical understanding of the use of intuition in academic IS research publications. It provides potential benefits to practitioners by providing insight into the use of intuition in IS management, for example, emphasizing the emerging importance of "intuitive technology". Research directions include the creation of reflective and/or formative constructs for intuition in information systems research and the expansion of this novel research method to additional IS academic publications and topics.

Preliminary leaf area index estimates from airborne small footprint full-waveform LiDAR data

This study has compared preliminary estimates of effective leaf area index (LAI) derived from fish-eye lens photographs to those estimated from airborne full-waveform small-footprint LiDAR data for a forest dataset in Australia. The full-waveform data was decomposed and optimized using a trust-region-reflective algorithm to extract denser point clouds. LAI LiDAR estimates were derived in two ways (1) from the probability of discrete pulses reaching the ground without being intercepted (point method) and (2) from raw waveform canopy height profile processing adapted to small-footprint laser altimetry (waveform method) accounting for reflectance ratio between vegetation and ground. The best results, that matched hemispherical photography estimates, were achieved for the waveform method with a study area-adjusted reflectance ratio of 0.4 (RMSE of 0.15 and 0.03 at plot and site level, respectively). The point method generally overestimated, whereas the waveform method with an arbitrary reflectance ratio of 0.5 underestimated the fish-eye lens LAI estimates.

Beyond description to pattern: The contribution of Batesonian epistemology to critical realist research

This paper proposes a limitation to epistemological claims to theory building prevalent in critical realist research. While accepting the basic ontological and epistemological positions of the perspective as developed by Roy Bhaskar, it is argued that application in social science has relied on sociological concepts to explain the underlying generative mechanisms, and that in many cases this has been subject to the effects of an anthropocentric constraint. A novel contribution to critical realist research comes from the work and ideas of Gregory Bateson. This is in service of two central goals of critical realism, namely an abductive route to theory building and a commitment to interdisciplinarity. Five aspects of Bateson’s epistemology are introduced: (1) difference, (2) logical levels of abstraction, (3) recursive causal loops, (4) the logic of metaphor, and (5) Bateson’s theory of mind. The comparison between Bateson and Bhaskar’s ideas is seen as a form of double description, illustrative of the point being raised. The paper concludes with an appeal to critical realists to start exploring the writing and outlook of Bateson himself.

Work Domain Analysis for understanding medication safety in care homes in England: an exploratory study

Medication safety and errors are a major concern in care homes. In addition to the identification of incidents, there is a need for a comprehensive system description to avoid the danger of introducing interventions that have unintended consequences and are therefore unsustainable. The aim of the study was to explore the impact and uniqueness of Work Domain Analysis (WDA) to facilitate an in-depth understanding of medication safety problems within the care home system and identify the potential benefits of WDA to design safety interventions to improve medication safety. A comprehensive, systematic and contextual overview of the care home medication system was developed for the first time. The novel use of the Abstraction Hierarchy (AH) to analyse medication errors revealed the value of the AH to guide a comprehensive analysis of errors and generate system improvement recommendations that took into account the contextual information of the wider system.

Resilience as transformative capacity: exploring the quadripartite cycle of structuration in a Mozambican resettlement programme

The concept of resilience has emerged out of a complex literature that has sought to make sense of an increasingly interconnected world that appears ever more beset by crises. Resilience’s appeal is reflected by the burgeoning mass of literature that has appeared on the subject in the past five years. However, there is ongoing debate surrounding its usage, with some commentators claiming that the term is inherently too conservative a one to be usefully applied to situations of vulnerability in which more radical social change is required. This article extends existing efforts to formulate more transformative notions of resilience by reframing it as a double-edged outcome of the pre-reflective and critical ways in which actors draw upon their internal structures following the occurrence of a negative event, thus reproducing or changing the external structural context that gave rise to the event in the first place. By employing a structuration-inspired analysis to the study of small-scale farmer responses to a flood-induced resettlement programme in central Mozambique, the article presents a systematic approach to the examination of resilience in light of this reframing. The case study findings suggest that more attention should be paid to the facilitative, as well as constraining, nature of structures if vulnerable populations are to be assisted in their efforts to exert transformative capacity over the wider conditions that give rise to their difficulties.

Negotiating the British landscape

According to many accounts, a key paradigm for understanding art in Post WWII Britain is one of Englishness versus internationalism or abstraction versus realism . These terms have a rich inflection of meanings that have been subject to interrogation over the last few decades. Anwar Shemza came to Britain and practiced his art at a time when these competing claims were at their height. In a postcolonial reading entitled “Black Diaspora Artists in Britain: Three ‘Moments’ in Post-War Britain” Stuart Hall recently used David Scott’s framework of a ‘problem space’, that is discursively defined through questions, tensions and conjunctures, that couched the entry of what he describes as first waive British commonwealth artists into critical visibility in Britain. This can be characterized in part by the reviews of WG Archer and GM Butcher, both supporters of Shemza and prominent critics of the period. Hall includes Shemza in this framework that defines the work and his aspirations as constituted through the tensions of what was perceived to be anti-colonialist aims of modernism through universalism and the ‘nativist’ current in anti-colonial nationalism . This text will focus particularly on the problematic of Landscape as a ‘problem space’ of vernacular and modernism, over here and over there. The aim is not to define Shemza within the tradition of English landscape nor to exclude him but to position him within a discursive field of landscape and modernism in mid twentieth Century art.

Blending systems thinking approaches for organisational analysis: reviewing child protection in England

This paper concerns the innovative use of a blend of systems thinking ideas in the ‘Munro Review of Child Protection’, a high-profile examination of child protection activities in England, conducted for the Department for Education. We go ‘behind the scenes’ to describe the OR methodologies and processes employed. The circumstances that led to the Review are outlined. Three specific contributions that systems thinking made to the Review are then described. First, the systems-based analysis and visualisation of how a ‘compliance culture’ had grown up. Second the creation of a large, complex systems map of current operations and the effects of past policies on them. Third, how the map gave shape to the range of issues the Review addressed and acted as an organising framework for the systemically coherent set of recommendations made. The paper closes with an outline of the main implementation steps taken so far to create a child protection system with the critically reflective properties of a learning organisation, and methodological reflections on the benefits of systems thinking to support organisational analysis.

Disability [sport] and discourse: stories within the Paralympic legacy

This paper aims to encourage critical reflection on what are key and pressing social and political issues surrounding the Paralympics Games. The focus of the paper is personal narratives of six current elite Paralympic athletes who have participated in at least one Paralympic Games. In response to critical stimuli presented in the form of five ‘unfinished stories’, the self-reflexive, personal, compelling narrative reflections of these individuals were (re)presented for each of the stories as a composite narrative. The stories expose questions over fear, despair, freedom, hope, love, oppression, hatred, hurt, terror, (in)equality, peace, performance and impairment. To really learn from London and reflect for Rio, we need academic work that can understand sport, sporting bodies and physical activity as important ‘sites’ through which social forces, discourses, institutions and processes congregate, congeal and are contested in a manner that contributes to the shaping of human relations, subjectivities, and experiences in particular, contextually contingent ways.

Beyond difference: female participation in the Brazilian film revival of the 1990s

In this chapter, I will focus on the female participation in what became known as ‘The Retomada do Cinema Brasileiro’, or the Brazilian Film Revival, by thinking beyond differences of gender, class, age and ethnicity. I will first re-consider the Retomada phenomenon against the backdrop of its historical time, so as to evaluate whether the production boom of the period translated into a creative peak, and, if so, how much of this carried onto the present day. I will then look at the female participation in this phenomenon not just in terms of numerical growth of women film directors, admittedly impressive, but only partially reflective of the drastic changes in the modes of production and address effected by the neoliberal policies introduced in the country in the mid 1990s. I will argue that the most decisive contribution brought about by the rise of women in Brazilian filmmaking has been the spread of team work and shared authorship, as opposed to a mere aspiration to the auteur pantheon, as determined by a notoriously male-oriented tradition. Granted, films focusing on female victimisation were rife during the Retomada period and persist to this day, and they have been, and continue to be, invaluable for the understanding of women’s struggles in the country. However, rather than resorting to feminist readings of representational strategies in these films, I will draw attention to other, presentational aesthetic experiments, open to the documentary contingent and the unpredictable real, which, I argue, suspend the pedagogical character of representational narratives. In order to demonstrate that new theoretical tools are needed to understand the gender powers at play in contemporary world cinema, I will, to conclude, analyse an excerpt of the film, Delicate Crime (Crime delicado, Beto Brant, 2006), where team work comes out as a particularly effective female, and feminist, procedure.

Designing in caves: using immersive visualisations in design practice

This paper describes a study of the use of immersive Virtual reality technologies in the design of a new hospital. It uses Schön’s concept of reflective practice and video-based methods to analyse the ways design teams approach and employ a full scale 3D immersive environment – a CAVE – in collaborative design work. The analysis describes four themes relating to reflective practice occurring in the setting: orienting to the CAVE technology itself, orienting to the representation of the specific design within the CAVE, activities accounting for, or exploring alternatives within the design for the use and users of the space, and more strategic interactions around how to best represent the design and model to the client within the CAVE setting. The analysis also reveals some unique aspects of design work in this environment. Perhaps most significantly, rather than enhancing or adding to an existing understanding of design through paper based or non-immersive digital representations, it is often acting to challenge or surprise the participants as they experience the immersive, full scale version of their own design.