Statnote 32 : the partial correlation coefficient

In previous statnotes, the application of correlation and regression methods to the analysis of two variables (X,Y) was described. The most important statistic used to measure the degree of correlation between two variables is Pearson’s ‘product moment correlation coefficient’ (‘r’). The correlation between two variables may be due to their common relation to other variables. Hence, investigators using correlation studies need to be alert to the possibilities of spurious correlation and the methods of ‘partial correlation’ are one method of taking this into account. This statnote applies the methods of partial correlation to three scenarios. First, to a fairly obvious example of a spurious correlation resulting from the ‘size effect’ involving the relationship between the number of general practitioners (GP) and the number of deaths of patients in a town. Second, to the relationship between the abundance of the nitrogen-fixing bacterium Azotobacter in soil and three soil variables, and finally, to a more complex scenario, first introduced in Statnote 24involving the relationship between the growth of lichens in the field and climate.

A fuzzy decision tree-based duration model for Standard Yorùbá text-to-speech synthesis

In this paper, we present syllable-based duration modelling in the context of a prosody model for Standard Yorùbá (SY) text-to-speech (TTS) synthesis applications. Our prosody model is conceptualised around a modular holistic framework. This framework is implemented using the Relational Tree (R-Tree) techniques. An important feature of our R-Tree framework is its flexibility in that it facilitates the independent implementation of the different dimensions of prosody, i.e. duration, intonation, and intensity, using different techniques and their subsequent integration. We applied the Fuzzy Decision Tree (FDT) technique to model the duration dimension. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of FDT in duration modelling, we have also developed a Classification And Regression Tree (CART) based duration model using the same speech data. Each of these models was integrated into our R-Tree based prosody model. We performed both quantitative (i.e. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation (Corr)) and qualitative (i.e. intelligibility and naturalness) evaluations on the two duration models. The results show that CART models the training data more accurately than FDT. The FDT model, however, shows a better ability to extrapolate from the training data since it achieved a better accuracy for the test data set. Our qualitative evaluation results show that our FDT model produces synthesised speech that is perceived to be more natural than our CART model. In addition, we also observed that the expressiveness of FDT is much better than that of CART. That is because the representation in FDT is not restricted to a set of piece-wise or discrete constant approximation. We, therefore, conclude that the FDT approach is a practical approach for duration modelling in SY TTS applications. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel concentration dependent amino acid ion pair strategy to mediate drug permeation using indomethacin as a model insoluble drug

Assessment of oral drug bioavailability is an important parameter for new chemical entities (NCEs) in drug development cycle. After evaluating the pharmacological response of these new molecules, the following critical stage is to investigate their in vitro permeability. Despite the great success achieved by prodrugs, covalent linking the drug molecule with a hydrophobic moiety might result in a new entity that might be toxic or ineffective. Therefore, an alternative that would improve the drug uptake without affecting the efficacy of the drug molecule would be advantageous. The aim of the current study is to investigate the effect of ion-pairing on the permeability profile of a model drug: indomethacin (IND) to understand the mechanism behind the permeability improvement across Caco-2 monolayers. Arginine and lysine formed ion-pairs with IND at various molar ratios 1:1, 1:2, 1:4 and 1:8 as reflected by the double reciprocal graphs. The partitioning capacities of the IND were evaluated using octanol/water partitioning studies and the apparent permeabilities (P app) were measured across Caco-2 monolayers for the different formulations. Partitioning studies reflected the high hydrophobicity of IND (Log P = 3) which dropped upon increasing the concentrations of arginine/lysine in the ion pairs. Nevertheless, the prepared ion pairs improved IND permeability especially after 60 min of the start of the experiment. Coupling partitioning and permeability results suggest a decrease in the passive transcellular uptake due to the drop in IND portioning capacities and a possible involvement of active carriers. Future work will investigate which transport gene might be involved in the absorption of the ion paired formulations using molecular biology technologies. © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating Misclassification Probability Using Empirical Risk

* The work is supported by RFBR, grant 04-01-00858-a

Адаптивные подходы к коррекции статических и кинематических поправок в задаче обработки сейсмических данных

* Работа выполнена при поддержке РФФИ 07-01-00331-a

Experimental Support of Argument-based Syntactic Computation

Linguistic theory, cognitive, information, and mathematical modeling are all useful while we attempt to achieve a better understanding of the Language Faculty (LF). This cross-disciplinary approach will eventually lead to the identification of the key principles applicable in the systems of Natural Language Processing. The present work concentrates on the syntax-semantics interface. We start from recursive definitions and application of optimization principles, and gradually develop a formal model of syntactic operations. The result – a Fibonacci- like syntactic tree – is in fact an argument-based variant of the natural language syntax. This representation (argument-centered model, ACM) is derived by a recursive calculus that generates a mode which connects arguments and expresses relations between them. The reiterative operation assigns primary role to entities as the key components of syntactic structure. We provide experimental evidence in support of the argument-based model. We also show that mental computation of syntax is influenced by the inter-conceptual relations between the images of entities in a semantic space.

Fraction Space Revisited

Бойко Бл. Банчев - Знае се, че рационалните числа образуват интересни и богати на изчислителни възможности структури като редици на Фарей (Феъри) и безкрайни дървета. Малко внимание се обръща на по-общо, систематично излагане на основните свойства на дробите като множество. Понятия биват въвеждани без обосноваване, някои доказателства са ненужно изкуствени, а почти винаги и едните, и другите като че биват отнесени към една или друга особена структура, вместо към множеството на дробите изобщо. Изненадващо е, че някои същностни твърдения изглежда дори не са формулирани в литературата по теория на числата. Тази статия има за цел да подобри състоянието на нещата в това отношение, като предлага общо, подходящо подредено изложение на понятия и свързани с тях твърдения. Като допълнение са представени бележки върху пораждането на множеството от всички дроби – откритие значително по-старо, отколкото е прието да се смята.

Banking Contagion under Different Exchange Rate Regimes in CEE

The global crisis of 2008 caused both liquidity shortage and increasing insolvency in the banking system. The study focuses on credit default contagion in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, which originated in bank runs generated by non-performing loans granted to non-financial clients. In terms of methodology, the paper relies on one hand on review of the literature, and on the other hand on a data survey with comparative and regression analysis. To uncover credit default contagion, the research focuses on the combined impact of foreign exchange rates and foreign private indebtedness.

Banking Contagion under Different Exchange Rate Regimes in CEE

The global crisis of 2008 caused both liquidity shortage and increasing insolvency in the banking system. The study focuses on credit default contagion in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, which originated in bank runs generated by non-performing loans granted to non-financial clients. In terms of methodology, the paper relies on one hand on review of the literature, and on the other hand on a data survey with comparative and regression analysis. To uncover credit default contagion, the research focuses on the combined impact of foreign exchange rates and foreign private indebtedness.

Predicting delay reductions from freeway traffic diversion for incident management

Traffic incidents are a major source of traffic congestion on freeways. Freeway traffic diversion using pre-planned alternate routes has been used as a strategy to reduce traffic delays due to major traffic incidents. However, it is not always beneficial to divert traffic when an incident occurs. Route diversion may adversely impact traffic on the alternate routes and may not result in an overall benefit. This dissertation research attempts to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) techniques to predict the percent of delay reduction from route diversion to help determine whether traffic should be diverted under given conditions. The DYNASMART-P mesoscopic traffic simulation model was applied to generate simulated data that were used to develop the ANN and SVR models. A sample network that comes with the DYNASMART-P package was used as the base simulation network. A combination of different levels of incident duration, capacity lost, percent of drivers diverted, VMS (variable message sign) messaging duration, and network congestion was simulated to represent different incident scenarios. The resulting percent of delay reduction, average speed, and queue length from each scenario were extracted from the simulation output. The ANN and SVR models were then calibrated for percent of delay reduction as a function of all of the simulated input and output variables. The results show that both the calibrated ANN and SVR models, when applied to the same location used to generate the calibration data, were able to predict delay reduction with a relatively high accuracy in terms of mean square error (MSE) and regression correlation. It was also found that the performance of the ANN model was superior to that of the SVR model. Likewise, when the models were applied to a new location, only the ANN model could produce comparatively good delay reduction predictions under high network congestion level.

Development of methods for spatial modeling of sediments quality in Lake Okeechobee, Florida

The major objectives of this dissertation were to develop optimal spatial techniques to model the spatial-temporal changes of the lake sediments and their nutrients from 1988 to 2006, and evaluate the impacts of the hurricanes occurred during 1998–2006. Mud zone reduced about 10.5% from 1988 to 1998, and increased about 6.2% from 1998 to 2006. Mud areas, volumes and weight were calculated using validated Kriging models. From 1988 to 1998, mud thicknesses increased up to 26 cm in the central lake area. The mud area and volume decreased about 13.78% and 10.26%, respectively. From 1998 to 2006, mud depths declined by up to 41 cm in the central lake area, mud volume reduced about 27%. Mud weight increased up to 29.32% from 1988 to 1998, but reduced over 20% from 1998 to 2006. The reduction of mud sediments is likely due to re-suspension and redistribution by waves and currents produced by large storm events, particularly Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004 and Wilma in 2005. Regression, kriging, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and regression-kriging models have been calibrated and validated for the spatial analysis of the sediments TP and TN of the lake. GWR models provide the most accurate predictions for TP and TN based on model performance and error analysis. TP values declined from an average of 651 to 593 mg/kg from 1998 to 2006, especially in the lake’s western and southern regions. From 1988 to 1998, TP declined in the northern and southern areas, and increased in the central-western part of the lake. The TP weights increased about 37.99%–43.68% from 1988 to 1998 and decreased about 29.72%–34.42% from 1998 to 2006. From 1988 to 1998, TN decreased in most areas, especially in the northern and southern lake regions; western littoral zone had the biggest increase, up to 40,000 mg/kg. From 1998 to 2006, TN declined from an average of 9,363 to 8,926 mg/kg, especially in the central and southern regions. The biggest increases occurred in the northern lake and southern edge areas. TN weights increased about 15%–16.2% from 1988 to 1998, and decreased about 7%–11% from 1998 to 2006.

Maintaining your loyal customers during hard times: An observation from the gaming industry

The Las Vegas gaming arena was one of the most severely affected consumeroriented industries to be impacted by the recent economic recession. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of relational benefits on customers’ behavioral loyalty in the Las Vegas gaming industry. This study particularly took a comparative approach and examined the relational impact during the economic recession and after the economic recession. Secondary data was obtained and regression analysis was performed to test the study hypothesis. The findings of this study revealed the economic recession impact on the Las Vegas gaming industry, as well as valuable insights for effective utilization of relational benefits to increase customer loyalty.

The influence of HOPE VI public housing on public schools

In the United States, public school enrollment is typically organized by neighborhood boundaries. This dissertation examines whether the federally funded HOPE VI program influenced performance in neighborhood public schools. In effect since 1992, HOPE VI has sought to revitalize distressed public housing using the New Urbanism model of mixed income communities. There are 165 such HOPE VI projects nationwide. Despite nearly two decades of the program's implementation, the literature on its connection to public school performance is thin. My dissertation aims to narrow this research gap. There are three principal research questions: (1) Following HOPE VI, was there a change in socioeconomic status (SES) in the neighborhood public school? The hypothesis is that low SES (measured as the proportion of students qualifying for the Free and Reduced Lunch Program) would reduce. (2) Following HOPE VI, did the performance of neighborhood public schools change? The hypothesis is that the school performance, measured by the proportion of 5th grade students proficient in state wide math and reading tests, would increase. (3) What factors relate to the performance of public schools in HOPE VI communities? The focus is on non-school, neighborhood factors that influence the public school performance. For answering the first two questions, I used t-tests and regression models to test the hypotheses. The analysis shows that there is no statistically significant change in SES following HOPE VI. However, there are statistically significant increases in performance for reading and math proficiency. The results are interesting in indicating that HOPE VI neighborhood improvement may have some relationship with improving school performance. To answer the third question, I conducted a case study analysis of two HOPE VI neighborhood public schools, one which improved significantly (in Philadelphia) and one which declined the most (in Washington DC). The analysis revealed three insights into neighborhood factors for improved school performance: (i) a strong local community organization; (ii) local community's commitment (including the middle income families) to send children to the public school; and (iii) ties between housing and education officials to implement the federal housing program. In essence, the study reveals how housing policy is de facto education policy.

Occupational therapists' attitudes toward family -centered care

The purpose of this study was to examine pediatric occupational therapists attitudes towards family-centered care. Specific attributes identified by the literature (professional characteristics, educational experiences and organizational culture) were investigated to determine their influence on these attitudes. Study participants were 250 pediatric occupational therapists who were randomly selected from the American Occupational Therapy Association special interest sections. ^ Participants received a mail packet with three instruments to complete and mail back within 2 weeks. The instruments were (a) the Professional Attitude Scale, (b) the Professional Characteristics Questionnaire, and (c) the Family-Centered Program Rating Scale. There was a 50% return rate. Data analysis was conducted in SPSS using descriptive statistics, correlations and regression analysis. ^ The analysis showed that pediatric occupational therapists working in various practice settings demonstrate favorable attitudes toward family-centered care as measured by the Professional Attitude Scale. There was no correlation between professional characteristics and educational experiences to therapists' attitudes. A moderate correlation (r = .368, p < .05) was found between the occupational therapists attitudes and the organizational culture of their workplaces. A factor analysis was conducted on the organizational culture instrument (FamPRS) as this sample was exclusively pediatric occupational therapists and the original sample was interdisciplinary professionals. Two factors were extracted using a principal components extraction and varimax rotation, in addition to examination of the scree plot. These two factors accounted for 50% of the total variance of the scores on the instrument. Factor 1, called empowerment accounted for 45.6% of the variance, and Factor 2, responsiveness accounted for 4.3% of the variance of the entire instrument. Stepwise regression analysis demonstrated that these two factors accounted for 16% of the variance toward attitudes clinicians hold toward family-centered care. These factors support the tenets of family-centered care; empowering parents to be leaders in their child's health care and helping organizations become more responsive to family needs. ^ These study findings suggest that organizational culture has some influence on occupational therapists attitudes toward family-centered care (R 2 = .16). These findings suggest educators should consider families as valuable resources when considering program planning in family-centered care at preservice and workplace settings. ^

An Evaluation of Three Nutrition Labeling Formats for Restaurant Menus

This study evaluated three menu nutrition labeling formats: calorie only information, a healthy symbol, and a nutrient list. Daily sales data for a table-service restaurant located on a university campus were recorded during a four-week period from January to February 2013 to examine changes in average nutritional content of the entrees purchased by customers when different nutrition labels were provided. A survey was conducted to assess the customers’ use of nutrition labels, their preferences among the three labeling formats, their entree selections, their cognitive beliefs with regard to healthy eating, and their demographic characteristics. A total of 173 questionnaires were returned and included in data analysis. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and regression analyses were performed using SAS. The results showed that favorable attitudes toward healthy eating and the use of nutrition labels were both significantly associated with healthier entrée selections. Age and diet status had some effects on the respondent’s use of nutrition labels. The calorie only information format was the most effective in reducing calories contained in the entrees sold, and the nutrient list was most effective in reducing fat and saturated fat content of the entrees sold. The healthy symbol was the least effective format, but interestingly enough, was most preferred by respondents. The findings provide support for future research and offer implications for policy makers, public health professionals, and foodservice operations.