Optimal Universal and Categorical Benefits with Classification Errors and Imperfect Enforcement

We determine he optimal combination of a universal benefit, B, and categorical benefit, C, for an economy in which individuals differ in both their ability to work - modelled as an exogenous zero quantity constraint on labour supply - and, conditional on being able to work, their productivity at work. C is targeted at those unable to work, and is conditioned in two dimensions: ex-ante an individual must be unable to work and be awarded the benefit, whilst ex-post a recipient must not subsequently work. However, the ex-ante conditionality may be imperfectly enforced due to Type I (false rejection) and Type II (false award) classification errors, whilst, in addition, the ex-post conditionality may be imperfectly enforced. If there are no classification errors - and thus no enforcement issues - it is always optimal to set C>0, whilst B=0 only if the benefit budget is sufficiently small. However, when classification errors occur, B=0 only if there are no Type I errors and the benefit budget is sufficiently small, while the conditions under which C>0 depend on the enforcement of the ex-post conditionality. We consider two discrete alternatives. Under No Enforcement C>0 only if the test administering C has some discriminatory power. In addition, social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make each type error. However, under Full Enforcement C>0 for all levels of discriminatory power. Furthermore, whilst social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make Type I errors, there are certain conditions under which it is increasing in the propensity to make Type II errors. This implies that there may be conditions under which it would be welfare enhancing to lower the chosen eligibility threshold - support the suggestion by Goodin (1985) to "err on the side of kindness".

Civil war and foreign influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

Proposed guidelines for the diagnosis and management of methylmalonic and propionic acidemia.

Methylmalonic and propionic acidemia (MMA/PA) are inborn errors of metabolism characterized by accumulation of propionic acid and/or methylmalonic acid due to deficiency of methylmalonyl-CoA mutase (MUT) or propionyl-CoA carboxylase (PCC). MMA has an estimated incidence of ~ 1: 50,000 and PA of ~ 1:100'000 -150,000. Patients present either shortly after birth with acute deterioration, metabolic acidosis and hyperammonemia or later at any age with a more heterogeneous clinical picture, leading to early death or to severe neurological handicap in many survivors. Mental outcome tends to be worse in PA and late complications include chronic kidney disease almost exclusively in MMA and cardiomyopathy mainly in PA. Except for vitamin B12 responsive forms of MMA the outcome remains poor despite the existence of apparently effective therapy with a low protein diet and carnitine. This may be related to under recognition and delayed diagnosis due to nonspecific clinical presentation and insufficient awareness of health care professionals because of disease rarity.

Differential lectin labelling of circulating hemocytes from Biomphalaria glabrata and Biomphalaria tenagophila resistant or susceptible to Schistosoma mansoni infection

Lectins/carbohydrate binding can be involved in the Schistosoma mansoni recognition and activation of the Biomphalaria hemocytes. Therefore, expression of lectin ligands on Biomphalaria hemocytes would be associated with snail resistance against S. mansoni infection. To test this hypothesis, circulating hemocytes were isolated from B. glabrata BH (snail strain highy susceptible to S. mansoni), B. tenagophila Cabo Frio (moderate susceptibility), and B. tenagophila Taim (completely resistant strains), labelled with FITC conjugated lectins (ConA, PNA, SBA, and WGA) and analyzed under fluorescence microscopy. The results demonstrated that although lectin-labelled hemocytes were detected in hemolymph of all snail species tested, circulating hemocytes from both strains of B. tenagophila showed a larger number of lectin-labelled cells than B. glabrata. Moreover, most of circulating hemocytes of B. tenagophila were intensively labelled by lectins PNA-FITC and WGA-FITC, while in B. glabrata small hemocytes were labeled mainly by ConA. Upon S. mansoni infection, lectin-labelled hemocytes almost disappeared from the hemolymph of Taim and accumulated in B. glabrata BH. The role of lectins/carbohydrate binding in resistance of B. tengophila infection to S. mansoni is still not fully understood, but the data suggest that there may be a correlation to its presence with susceptibility or resistance to the parasite.

Necrotising pneumonia due to influenza A (H1N1) and community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus clone USA300: successful management of the first documented paediatric case.

Necrotising pneumonia in young, previously healthy patients due to Panton–Valentine leucocidin (PVL) producing Staphylococcus aureus has been increasingly recognised. PVL pneumonia is often associated with influenza co-infection and high mortality. This case report describes the successful management of the first documented paediatric case of a previous healthy adolescent who developed necrotising pneumonia due to community-acquired methicillin-resistant (CA-MRSA) clone USA300 with pandemic influenza A (H1N1) co-infection, and highlights the importance of early recognition and initiation of appropriate therapy for this potentially fatal co-infection. PCR remains the gold standard to diagnose pandemic H1N1 since it may not be detected by rapid antigen tests. Bacterial necrotising pneumonia should be suspected in those presenting with worsening flu-like symptoms and clinical and/or radiological evidence of PVL infection (multifocal infiltrates, effusion and cavitation). These patients may benefit from the administration of toxin neutralising agents. In light of the current H1N1 pandemic, healthcare professionals will be increasingly confronted with this clinical scenario.

Homology modeling and metabolism prediction of human carboxylesterase-2 using docking analyses by GriDock: a parallelized tool based on AutoDock 4.0.

Metabolic problems lead to numerous failures during clinical trials, and much effort is now devoted to developing in silico models predicting metabolic stability and metabolites. Such models are well known for cytochromes P450 and some transferases, whereas less has been done to predict the activity of human hydrolases. The present study was undertaken to develop a computational approach able to predict the hydrolysis of novel esters by human carboxylesterase hCES2. The study involved first a homology modeling of the hCES2 protein based on the model of hCES1 since the two proteins share a high degree of homology (congruent with 73%). A set of 40 known substrates of hCES2 was taken from the literature; the ligands were docked in both their neutral and ionized forms using GriDock, a parallel tool based on the AutoDock4.0 engine which can perform efficient and easy virtual screening analyses of large molecular databases exploiting multi-core architectures. Useful statistical models (e.g., r (2) = 0.91 for substrates in their unprotonated state) were calculated by correlating experimental pK(m) values with distance between the carbon atom of the substrate's ester group and the hydroxy function of Ser228. Additional parameters in the equations accounted for hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions between substrates and contributing residues. The negatively charged residues in the hCES2 cavity explained the preference of the enzyme for neutral substrates and, more generally, suggested that ligands which interact too strongly by ionic bonds (e.g., ACE inhibitors) cannot be good CES2 substrates because they are trapped in the cavity in unproductive modes and behave as inhibitors. The effects of protonation on substrate recognition and the contrasting behavior of substrates and products were finally investigated by MD simulations of some CES2 complexes.

Granulocyte macrophage colony-stimulating factor enhances the modulatory effect of cytokines on monocyte-derived multinucleated giant cell formation and fungicidal activity against Paracoccidioides brasiliensis

Multinucleated giant cells (MGC) are cells present in characteristic granulomatous inflammation induced by intracellular infectious agents or foreign materials. The present study evaluated the modulatory effect of granulocyte macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF) in association with other cytokines such as interferon-gamma (IFN-γ), tumour necrosis factor-alpha, interleukin (IL)-10 or transforming growth factor beta (TGF-β1) on the formation of MGC from human peripheral blood monocytes stimulated with Paracoccidioides brasiliensis antigen (PbAg). The generation of MGC was determined by fusion index (FI) and the fungicidal activity of these cells was evaluated after 4 h of MGC co-cultured with viable yeast cells of P. brasiliensis strain 18 (Pb18). The results showed that monocytes incubated with PbAg and GM-CSF plus IFN-γ had a significantly higher FI than in all the other cultures, while the addition of IL-10 or TGF-β1 had a suppressive effect on MGC generation. Monocytes incubated with both pro and anti-inflammatory cytokines had a higher induction of foreign body-type MGC rather than Langhans-type MGC. MGC stimulated with PbAg and GM-CSF in association with the other cytokines had increased fungicidal activity and the presence of GM-CSF also partially inhibited the suppressive effects of IL-10 and TGF-β1. Together, these results suggest that GM-CSF is a positive modulator of PbAg-stimulated MGC generation and on the fungicidal activity against Pb18.

Use of Hy's law and a new composite algorithm to predict acute liver failure in patients with drug-induced liver injury.

BACKGROUND & AIMS Hy's Law, which states that hepatocellular drug-induced liver injury (DILI) with jaundice indicates a serious reaction, is used widely to determine risk for acute liver failure (ALF). We aimed to optimize the definition of Hy's Law and to develop a model for predicting ALF in patients with DILI. METHODS We collected data from 771 patients with DILI (805 episodes) from the Spanish DILI registry, from April 1994 through August 2012. We analyzed data collected at DILI recognition and at the time of peak levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and total bilirubin (TBL). RESULTS Of the 771 patients with DILI, 32 developed ALF. Hepatocellular injury, female sex, high levels of TBL, and a high ratio of aspartate aminotransferase (AST):ALT were independent risk factors for ALF. We compared 3 ways to use Hy's Law to predict which patients would develop ALF; all included TBL greater than 2-fold the upper limit of normal (×ULN) and either ALT level greater than 3 × ULN, a ratio (R) value (ALT × ULN/alkaline phosphatase × ULN) of 5 or greater, or a new ratio (nR) value (ALT or AST, whichever produced the highest ×ULN/ alkaline phosphatase × ULN value) of 5 or greater. At recognition of DILI, the R- and nR-based models identified patients who developed ALF with 67% and 63% specificity, respectively, whereas use of only ALT level identified them with 44% specificity. However, the level of ALT and the nR model each identified patients who developed ALF with 90% sensitivity, whereas the R criteria identified them with 83% sensitivity. An equal number of patients who did and did not develop ALF had alkaline phosphatase levels greater than 2 × ULN. An algorithm based on AST level greater than 17.3 × ULN, TBL greater than 6.6 × ULN, and AST:ALT greater than 1.5 identified patients who developed ALF with 82% specificity and 80% sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS When applied at DILI recognition, the nR criteria for Hy's Law provides the best balance of sensitivity and specificity whereas our new composite algorithm provides additional specificity in predicting the ultimate development of ALF.

Revealing the dark side of traditional democracies in plurinational societies. The case of Catalonia and the Spanish “Estado de las Autonomías”

In this article, I firstly offer a synthesis of a brief set of analytical elements of the theory of democracy and federalism established in the recent debate which identify a number of flaws in the normative and institutional bases of plurinational democracies. It is necessary to overcome these flaws in order to achieve a true political and constitutional recognition and accommodation of the national pluralism of this kind of liberal democracies (section 1). Secondly, we will focus on the Spanish case of the “Estado de las Autonomías” taking into account the recent reform of the Catalan constitutional law (Estatut d’autonomia 2006) (section 2). A final section makes a number of concluding remarks relating the previously highlighted elements of the theory of democracy and federalism with the analysis of the Catalan case (section 3).

Foreign ownership and productivity dynamics

In analyzing the distinctive contribution of foreign subsidiaries anddomestic firms to productivity growth in aggregate Belgian manufacturing,this paper shows that foreign ownership is an important source of firmheterogeneity affecting productivity dynamics. Foreign firms havecontributed disproportionately large to aggregate productivity growth,but more importantly reallocation processes differ significantly betweenthe groups of foreign subsidiaries and domestic firms.

Foreign direct investments and spillovers through workers' mobility

We analyze a model where a multinational firm can use its superiortechnology in a foreign subsidiary only after appropriate trainingof local managers. Technological spillovers from foreign directinvestment arise when such managers are later hired by a localfirm. Benefits for the host economy may also take the form of therent that trained managers receive by the foreign affiliate toprevent them from moving to local competitors. We study conditionsunder which technological spillovers occur. We also show that undercertain circumstances the multinational firm might find it optimalto resort to export instead of foreign direct investment, to avoiddissipation of its intangible assets.

The quasi-judicial role of large retailers: An efficiency hypothesis of their relation with suppliers

The paper explores an efficiency hypothesis regarding the contractual process between large retailers, such as Wal-Mart and Carrefour, and their suppliers. The empirical evidence presented supports the idea that large retailers play a quasi-judicial role, acting as "courts of first instance" in their relationships with suppliers. In this role, large retailers adjust the terms of trade to on-going changes and sanction performance failures, sometimes delaying payments. A potential abuse of their position is limited by the need for re-contracting and preserving their reputations. Suppliers renew their confidence in their retailers on a yearly basis, through writing new contracts. This renovation contradicts the alternative hypothesis that suppliers are expropriated by large retailers as a consequence of specific investments.

Space Utilization and Building Study for the Department of General Services, October 9, 2000

Purposes of this Report: • Recommend the most logical and economical options to address state governmental space needs in the Polk County metropolitan area to the year 2010. • Include building size, location, phasing, financing, method of project delivery and estimated cost. • Develop a software tool to compare costs of leasing vs. ownership of space. Methodology: Identify: 1. Current amount and location of owned and leased space, by agency; 2. Types of space and whether best located on or off of the Capitol Complex; 3. Utilization of space, noting over-crowding and under-utilization; 4. Current number of workstations for full and part time employees, Personnel Employment Organization (PEO) workers, contractors, interns, etc.; and, 5. History of staff levels to assist in the prediction of staff growth. Scope: This report focuses on 10 state-owned buildings located on the Capitol Complex and 48 leased spaces in the Polk County metropolitan area. (See Figures 1 and 2.) • Due to a separate space study under way by the Legislature, implications of area and staff for the State Capitol building are included only for the Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Treasurer, Secretary of State, Auditor and the Department of Management. • Because it is largely a museum building that does not have office space available for other agencies, the area and staff of the Historical Building are not fully addressed. • Only the parking implications of the new Judicial Building are included in this study because the building space is under the jurisdiction of the Judicial Branch and not available for other agencies. Several state-owned buildings are not included in the scope of this report, generally because they have highly focused purposes, and their space is not available for assignment to other agencies. Several leased locations are not included for similar reasons, including leases that do not fall within the authority of the Department of General Services.

Phase I safety and immunogenicity trial of Plasmodium vivax CS derived long synthetic peptides adjuvanted with montanide ISA 720 or montanide ISA 51.

We assessed the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of a mixture of three synthetic peptides derived from the Plasmodium vivax circumsporozoite protein formulated in Montanide ISA 720 or Montanide ISA 51. Forty healthy malaria-naive volunteers were allocated to five experimental groups (A-E): four groups (A-D) were immunized intramuscularly with 50 and 100 μg/dose injections of a mixture of N, R, and C peptides formulated in the two different adjuvants at 0, 2, and 4 months and one group was administered placebo. Vaccines were immunogenic, safe, well tolerated, and no serious adverse events related to the vaccine occurred. Seroconversion occurred in > 90% of the vaccines and antibodies recognized the sporozoite protein on immunofluorescent antibody test. Vaccines in Montanide ISA 51 showed a higher sporozoite protein recognition and interferon production. Results encourage further testing of the vaccine protective efficacy.

Genetic differentiation of continental and island populations of Bombus terrestris (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in Europe.

Ten microsatellite loci and a partial sequence of the COII mitochondrial gene were used to investigate genetic differentiation in B. terrestris, a bumble bee of interest for its high-value crop pollination. The analysis included eight populations from the European continent, five from Mediterranean islands (six subspecies altogether) and one from Tenerife (initially described as a colour form of B. terrestris but recently considered as a separate species, B. canariensis). Eight of the 10 microsatellite loci displayed high levels of polymorphism in most populations. In B. terrestris populations, the total number of alleles detected per polymorphic locus ranged from 3 to 16, with observed allelic diversity from 3.8 +/- 0.5 to 6.5 +/- 1.4 and average calculated heterozygosities from 0.41 +/- 0.09 to 0.65 +/- 0.07. B. canariensis showed a significantly lower average calculated heterozygosity (0.12 +/- 0.08) and observed allelic diversity (1.5 +/- 0.04) as compared to both continental and island populations of B. terrestris. No significant differentiation was found among populations of B. terrestris from the European continent. In contrast, island populations were all significantly and most of them strongly differentiated from continental populations. B. terrestris mitochondrial DNA is characterized by a low nucleotide diversity: 0.18% +/- 0.07%, 0.20% +/- 0.04% and 0.27% +/- 0.04% for the continental populations, the island populations and all populations together, respectively. The only haplotype found in the Tenerife population differs by a single nucleotide substitution from the most common continental haplotype of B. terrestris. This situation, identical to that of Tyrrhenian islands populations and quite different from that of B. lucorum (15 substitutions between terrestris and lucorum mtDNA) casts doubts on the species status of B. canariensis. The large genetic distance between the Tenerife and B. terrestris populations estimated from microsatellite data result, most probably, from a severe bottleneck in the Canary island population. Microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA data call for the protection of the island populations of B. terrestris against importation of bumble bees of foreign origin which are used as crop pollinators.