Modelling the influence of change in fire regime on the local distribution of a Mediterranean pyrophytic plant species (Cistus salviifolius) at its northern range limit

Aims: To assess the potential distribution of an obligate seeder and active pyrophyte, Cistus salviifolius, a vulnerable species in the Swiss Red List; to derive scenarios by changing the fire return interval; and to discuss the results from a conservation perspective. A more general aim is to assess the impact of fire as a natural factor influencing the vegetation of the southern slopes of the Alps. Locations: Alps, southern Switzerland. Methods: Presence-absence data to fit the model were obtained from the most recent field mapping of C. salviifolius. The quantitative environmental predictors used in this study include topographic, climatic and disturbance (fire) predictors. Models were fitted by logistic regression and evaluated by jackknife and bootstrap approaches. Changes in fire regime were simulated by increasing the time-return interval of fire (simulating longer periods without fire). Two scenarios were considered: no fire in the past 15 years; or in the past 35 years. Results: Rock cover, slope, topographic position, potential evapotranspiration and time elapsed since the last fire were selected in the final model. The Nagelkerke R-2 of the model for C. salviifolius was 0.57 and the Jackknife area under the curve evaluation was 0.89. The bootstrap evaluation revealed model robustness. By increasing the return interval of fire by either up to 15 years, or 35 years, the modelled C. salviifolius population declined by 30-40%, respectively. Main conclusions: Although fire plays a significant role, topography and rock cover appear to be the most important predictors, suggesting that the distribution of C. salviifolius in the southern Swiss Alps is closely related to the availability of supposedly competition-free sites, such as emerging bedrock, ridge locations or steep slopes. Fire is more likely to play a secondary role in allowing C. salviifolius to extend its occurrence temporarily, by increasing germination rates and reducing the competition from surrounding vegetation. To maintain a viable dormant seed bank for C. salviifolius, conservation managers should consider carrying out vegetation clearing and managing wild fire propagation to reduce competition and ensure sufficient recruitment for this species.

Looming Scarcity of Phosphate Rock and Intensification of Soil Phosphorus Research

In recent years, many researchers have claimed that world reserves of rock phosphate were getting depleted at an alarming rate, putting us on the path to scarcity of that essential resource within the next few decades. Others have claimed that such alarmist forecasts were frequent in the past and have always been proven unfounded, making it likely that the same will be true in the future. Both viewpoints are directly relevant to the level of funding devoted to research on the use of phosphate fertilizers. In this short essay, it is argued that information about future reserves of P or any other resource are impossible to predict, and therefore that the threat of a possible depletion of P reserves should not be used as a key motivation for an intensification of research on soil P. However, there are other, more compelling reasons, both geopolitical and environmental, to urgently step up our collective efforts to devise agricultural practices that make better use of P than is the case at the moment.

LSI-R Scores: Change Matters, Data Download, Iowa Department of Corrections, April 2009

Past studies have shown the LSI-R risk assessment tool to be accurate in assessing the risk level of Iowa offenders. A more recent study, conducted by the University of Cincinnati, showed that a reduction in the LSI-R score over time results in a lower risk that an Iowa offender will reoffend.

Financial crisis: theory and practice

In the last 50 years, we have had approximately 40 events with characteristics related to financial crisis. The most severe crisis was in 1929, when the financial markets plummet and the US gross domestic product decline in more than 30 percent. Recently some years ago, a new crisis developed in the United States, but instantly caused consequences and effects in the rest of the world.This new economic and financial crisis has increased the interest and motivation for the academic community, professors and researchers, to understand the causes and effects of the crisis, to learn from it. This is the one of the main reasons for the compilation of this book, which begins with a meeting of a group of IAFI researchers from the University of Barcelona, where researchers form Mexico and Spain, explain causes and consequences of the crisis of 2007.For that reason, we believed this set of chapters related to methodologies, applications and theories, would conveniently explained the characteristics and events of the past and future financial crisisThis book consists in 3 main sections, the first one called "State of the Art and current situation", the second named "Econometric applications to estimate crisis time periods" , and the third one "Solutions to diminish the effects of the crisis". The first section explains the current point of view of many research papers related to financial crisis, it has 2 chapters. In the first one, it describe and analyzes the models that historically have been used to explain financial crisis, furthermore, it proposes to used alternative methodologies such as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps. On the other hand , Chapter 2 , explains the characteristics and details of the 2007 crisis from the US perspective and its comparison to 1929 crisis, presenting some effects in Mexico and Latin America.The second section presents two econometric applications to estimate possible crisis periods. For this matter, Chapter 3, studies 3 Latin-American countries: Argentina, Brazil and Peru in the 1994 crisis and estimates the multifractal characteristics to identify financial and economic distress.Chapter 4 explains the crisis situations in Argentina (2001), Mexico (1994) and the recent one in the United States (2007) and its effects in other countries through a financial series methodology related to the stock market.The last section shows an alternative to prevent the effects of the crisis. The first chapter explains the financial stability effects through the financial system regulation and some globalization standards. Chapter 6, study the benefits of the Investor activism and a way to protect personal and national wealth to face the financial crisis risks.

Current state of knowledge on neuroendocrine small bowel tumours: non-systematic review of the literature based on one case.

More than 60% of neuroendocrine tumours, also called carcinoids, are localised within the gastrointestinal tract. Small bowel neuroendocrine tumours have been diagnosed with increasing frequency over the past 35 years, being the second most frequent tumours of the small intestine. Ileal neuroendocrine tumours diagnosis is late because patients have non-specific symptoms. We have proposed to illustrate as an example the case of a patient, and on its basis, to make a brief review of the literature on small bowel neuroendocrine tumours, resuming several recent changes in the field, concerning classification criteria of these tumours and new recommendations and current advances in diagnosis and treatment. This patient came to our emergency department with a complete bowel obstruction, along with a 2-year history of peristaltic abdominal pain, vomits and diarrhoea episodes. During emergency laparotomy, an ileal stricture was observed, that showed to be a neuroendocrine tumour of the small bowel.

Enteral nutrition as primary therapy in Crohn's disease

The developments in enteral feeding for Crohn's disease in the past decade are critically reviewed. The advent of amino acid based chemically defined elemental diets signalled the end of 'total bowel rest' in the management of these patients. Subsequently, controlled clinical trials showed that elemental diets were as effective as corticosteroids in inducing clinical remission in patients with acute exacerbations of Crohn's disease. The later use of peptide based elemental diets, in Crohn's disease produced somewhat conflicting results. The initial uncontrolled studies suggest that polymeric whole protein diets might also be effective in the management of acute exacerbations of the disease, casting in turn doubts concerning the role of dietary antigens in the pathogenesis of Crohn's disease. Results of controlled studies comparing the use of elemental and polymeric diets as primary therapy in Crohn's disease have, however, also produced conflicting results. The results of one recent controlled trial in which

Origin and expansion of the allotetraploid Aegilops geniculata, a wild relative of wheat.

*This study reconstructs the phylogeography of Aegilops geniculata, an allotetraploid relative of wheat, to discuss the impact of past climate changes and recent human activities (e.g. the early expansion of agriculture) on the genetic diversity of ruderal plant species. *We combined chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) sequencing, analysed using statistical parsimony network, with nonhierarchical K-means clustering of amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) genotyping, to unravel patterns of genetic structure across the native range of Ae. geniculata. The AFLP dataset was further explored by measurement of the regional genetic diversity and the detection of isolation by distance patterns. *Both cpDNA and AFLP suggest an eastern Mediterranean origin of Ae. geniculata. Two lineages have spread independently over northern and southern Mediterranean areas. Northern populations show low genetic diversity but strong phylogeographical structure among the main peninsulas, indicating a major influence of glacial cycles. By contrast, low genetic structuring and a high genetic diversity are detected in southern Mediterranean populations. Finally, we highlight human-mediated dispersal resulting in substantial introgression between resident and migrant populations. *We have shown that the evolutionary trajectories of ruderal plants can be similar to those of wild species, but are interfered by human activities, promoting range expansions through increased long-distance dispersal and the creation of suitable habitats.

Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

Origins, evolution, and phenotypic impact of new genes.

Ever since the pre-molecular era, the birth of new genes with novel functions has been considered to be a major contributor to adaptive evolutionary innovation. Here, I review the origin and evolution of new genes and their functions in eukaryotes, an area of research that has made rapid progress in the past decade thanks to the genomics revolution. Indeed, recent work has provided initial whole-genome views of the different types of new genes for a large number of different organisms. The array of mechanisms underlying the origin of new genes is compelling, extending way beyond the traditionally well-studied source of gene duplication. Thus, it was shown that novel genes also regularly arose from messenger RNAs of ancestral genes, protein-coding genes metamorphosed into new RNA genes, genomic parasites were co-opted as new genes, and that both protein and RNA genes were composed from scratch (i.e., from previously nonfunctional sequences). These mechanisms then also contributed to the formation of numerous novel chimeric gene structures. Detailed functional investigations uncovered different evolutionary pathways that led to the emergence of novel functions from these newly minted sequences and, with respect to animals, attributed a potentially important role to one specific tissue--the testis--in the process of gene birth. Remarkably, these studies also demonstrated that novel genes of the various types significantly impacted the evolution of cellular, physiological, morphological, behavioral, and reproductive phenotypic traits. Consequently, it is now firmly established that new genes have indeed been major contributors to the origin of adaptive evolutionary novelties.

Improving Traffic Safety Culture in Iowa – Phase II, July 2013

Phase II of Improving Traffic Safety Culture in Iowa focuses on producing actions that will improve the traffic safety culture across the state, and involves collaboration among the three large public universities in Iowa: Iowa State University, University of Northern Iowa, and University of Iowa. More specifically, this second phase synthesizes the expert opinions solicited in Phase I with prevailing public views and/or opinions gathered from a follow-up survey on Iowa’s 2000 public opinion survey, which the University of Northern Iowa, Center for Social and Behavioral Research, administered. More recent data on the opinions of Iowans and of people nationally contrasted with past data will help better define the public’s position on top safety culture issues. This, in turn, will provide a better basis for developing actionable, fundable, and ultimately successful strategies that will make a tangible difference in improving traffic safety in Iowa.

Díaz-Andreu, Margarita: A world history of nineteenth century archaeology. Nationalism, Colonialism, and the Past.

M. Díaz-Andreu plantea un análisis de las implicaciones académicas, sociales y políticas de la arqueología (entendiendo como tal la investigación estricta, pero también el coleccionismo de obras de arte) entre finales del siglo XVIII y el inicio de la Primera Guerra Mundial, período durante el cual la formación y expansión de los imperios coloniales constituyó uno de los elementos clave en el discurso ideológico de los estados europeos. Su trabajo continúa la línea marcada por estudios suyos anteriores, esencialmente Nationalism and Archaeology in Europe (Díaz-Andreu & T. Champion [eds.], 1996) y Excavating Women. A History in European Archaeology (Díaz-Andreu & M. L. S. Sorensen, 1998), en los que combinaba el análisis historiográfico de diferentes aspectos y personajes clave de la arqueología europea desde la perspectiva de la organización de las redes sociales entre investigadores, con la reflexión sobre las implicaciones de la arqueología como ciencia en la definición y defensa de diferentes credos políticos, y el papel de la mujer en la investigación.