Improving supply chain performance: Real-time demand information and flexible deliveries

In some supply chains, materials are ordered periodically according to local information. This paper investigates how to improve the performance of such a supply chain. Specifically, we consider a serial inventory system in which each stage implements a local reorder interval policy; i.e., each stage orders up to a local basestock level according to a fixed-interval schedule. A fixed cost is incurred for placing an order. Two improvement strategies are considered: (1) expanding the information flow by acquiring real-time demand information and (2) accelerating the material flow via flexible deliveries. The first strategy leads to a reorder interval policy with full information; the second strategy leads to a reorder point policy with local information. Both policies have been studied in the literature. Thus, to assess the benefit of these strategies, we analyze the local reorder interval policy. We develop a bottom-up recursion to evaluate the system cost and provide a method to obtain the optimal policy. A numerical study shows the following: Increasing the flexibility of deliveries lowers costs more than does expanding information flow; the fixed order costs and the system lead times are key drivers that determine the effectiveness of these improvement strategies. In addition, we find that using optimal batch sizes in the reorder point policy and demand rate to infer reorder intervals may lead to significant cost inefficiency. © 2010 INFORMS.

Real-Time Decision Making and Aggressive Behavior in Youth: A Heuristic Model of Response Evaluation and Decision (RED).

Considerable scientific and intervention attention has been paid to judgment and decision-making systems associated with aggressive behavior in youth. However, most empirical studies have investigated social-cognitive correlates of stable child and adolescent aggressiveness, and less is known about real-time decision making to engage in aggressive behavior. A model of real-time decision making must incorporate both impulsive actions and rational thought. The present paper advances a process model (response evaluation and decision; RED) of real-time behavioral judgments and decision making in aggressive youths with mathematic representations that may be used to quantify response strength. These components are a heuristic to describe decision making, though it is doubtful that individuals always mentally complete these steps. RED represents an organization of social-cognitive operations believed to be active during the response decision step of social information processing. The model posits that RED processes can be circumvented through impulsive responding. This article provides a description and integration of thoughtful, rational decision making and nonrational impulsivity in aggressive behavioral interactions.

Features of programmed cell death in intact Xenopus oocytes and early embryos revealed by near-infrared fluorescence and real-time monitoring.

Factors influencing apoptosis of vertebrate eggs and early embryos have been studied in cell-free systems and in intact embryos by analyzing individual apoptotic regulators or caspase activation in static samples. A novel method for monitoring caspase activity in living Xenopus oocytes and early embryos is described here. The approach, using microinjection of a near-infrared caspase substrate that emits fluorescence only after its proteolytic cleavage by active effector caspases, has enabled the elucidation of otherwise cryptic aspects of apoptotic regulation. In particular, we show that brief caspase activity (10 min) is sufficient to cause apoptotic death in this system. We illustrate a cytochrome c dose threshold in the oocyte, which is lowered by Smac, a protein that binds thereby neutralizing the inhibitor of apoptosis proteins. We show that meiotic oocytes develop resistance to cytochrome c, and that the eventual death of oocytes arrested in meiosis is caspase-independent. Finally, data acquired through imaging caspase activity in the Xenopus embryo suggest that apoptosis in very early development is not cell-autonomous. These studies both validate this assay as a useful tool for apoptosis research and reveal subtleties in the cell death program during early development. Moreover, this method offers a potentially valuable screening modality for identifying novel apoptotic regulators.

Real-time decision aid display

Gemstone Team Future Firefighting Advancements

Real-Time and Data-Driven Operation Optimization and Knowledge Discovery for an Enterprise Information System

An enterprise information system (EIS) is an integrated data-applications platform characterized by diverse, heterogeneous, and distributed data sources. For many enterprises, a number of business processes still depend heavily on static rule-based methods and extensive human expertise. Enterprises are faced with the need for optimizing operation scheduling, improving resource utilization, discovering useful knowledge, and making data-driven decisions.

This thesis research is focused on real-time optimization and knowledge discovery that addresses workflow optimization, resource allocation, as well as data-driven predictions of process-execution times, order fulfillment, and enterprise service-level performance. In contrast to prior work on data analytics techniques for enterprise performance optimization, the emphasis here is on realizing scalable and real-time enterprise intelligence based on a combination of heterogeneous system simulation, combinatorial optimization, machine-learning algorithms, and statistical methods.

On-demand digital-print service is a representative enterprise requiring a powerful EIS.We use real-life data from Reischling Press, Inc. (RPI), a digit-print-service provider (PSP), to evaluate our optimization algorithms.

In order to handle the increase in volume and diversity of demands, we first present a high-performance, scalable, and real-time production scheduling algorithm for production automation based on an incremental genetic algorithm (IGA). The objective of this algorithm is to optimize the order dispatching sequence and balance resource utilization. Compared to prior work, this solution is scalable for a high volume of orders and it provides fast scheduling solutions for orders that require complex fulfillment procedures. Experimental results highlight its potential benefit in reducing production inefficiencies and enhancing the productivity of an enterprise.

We next discuss analysis and prediction of different attributes involved in hierarchical components of an enterprise. We start from a study of the fundamental processes related to real-time prediction. Our process-execution time and process status prediction models integrate statistical methods with machine-learning algorithms. In addition to improved prediction accuracy compared to stand-alone machine-learning algorithms, it also performs a probabilistic estimation of the predicted status. An order generally consists of multiple series and parallel processes. We next introduce an order-fulfillment prediction model that combines advantages of multiple classification models by incorporating flexible decision-integration mechanisms. Experimental results show that adopting due dates recommended by the model can significantly reduce enterprise late-delivery ratio. Finally, we investigate service-level attributes that reflect the overall performance of an enterprise. We analyze and decompose time-series data into different components according to their hierarchical periodic nature, perform correlation analysis,

and develop univariate prediction models for each component as well as multivariate models for correlated components. Predictions for the original time series are aggregated from the predictions of its components. In addition to a significant increase in mid-term prediction accuracy, this distributed modeling strategy also improves short-term time-series prediction accuracy.

In summary, this thesis research has led to a set of characterization, optimization, and prediction tools for an EIS to derive insightful knowledge from data and use them as guidance for production management. It is expected to provide solutions for enterprises to increase reconfigurability, accomplish more automated procedures, and obtain data-driven recommendations or effective decisions.

Sticky central limit theorems on open books

Given a probability distribution on an open book (a metric space obtained by gluing a disjoint union of copies of a half-space along their boundary hyperplanes), we define a precise concept of when the Fréchet mean (barycenter) is sticky. This nonclassical phenomenon is quantified by a law of large numbers (LLN) stating that the empirical mean eventually almost surely lies on the (codimension 1 and hence measure 0) spine that is the glued hyperplane, and a central limit theorem (CLT) stating that the limiting distribution is Gaussian and supported on the spine.We also state versions of the LLN and CLT for the cases where the mean is nonsticky (i.e., not lying on the spine) and partly sticky (i.e., is, on the spine but not sticky). © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2013.

When the library is located in prime real estate: a case study on the loss of space from the Duke University Medical Center Library and Archives.

The Duke University Medical Center Library and Archives is located in the heart of the Duke Medicine campus, surrounded by Duke Hospital, ambulatory clinics, and numerous research facilities. Its location is considered prime real estate, given its adjacency to patient care, research, and educational activities. In 2005, the Duke University Library Space Planning Committee had recommended creating a learning center in the library that would support a variety of educational activities. However, the health system needed to convert the library's top floor into office space to make way for expansion of the hospital and cancer center. The library had only five months to plan the storage and consolidation of its journal and book collections, while working with the facilities design office and architect on the replacement of key user spaces on the top floor. Library staff worked together to develop plans for storing, weeding, and consolidating the collections and provided input into renovation plans for users spaces on its mezzanine level. The library lost 15,238 square feet (29%) of its net assignable square footage and a total of 16,897 (30%) gross square feet. This included 50% of the total space allotted to collections and over 15% of user spaces. The top-floor space now houses offices for Duke Medicine oncology faculty and staff. By storing a large portion of its collection off-site, the library was able to remove more stacks on the remaining stack level and convert them to user spaces, a long-term goal for the library. Additional space on the mezzanine level had to be converted to replace lost study and conference room spaces. While this project did not match the recommended space plans for the library, it underscored the need for the library to think creatively about the future of its facility and to work toward a more cohesive master plan.

Component Neural Systems for the Creation of Emotional Memories during Free Viewing of a Complex, Real-World Event.

To investigate the neural systems that contribute to the formation of complex, self-relevant emotional memories, dedicated fans of rival college basketball teams watched a competitive game while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). During a subsequent recognition memory task, participants were shown video clips depicting plays of the game, stemming either from previously-viewed game segments (targets) or from non-viewed portions of the same game (foils). After an old-new judgment, participants provided emotional valence and intensity ratings of the clips. A data driven approach was first used to decompose the fMRI signal acquired during free viewing of the game into spatially independent components. Correlations were then calculated between the identified components and post-scanning emotion ratings for successfully encoded targets. Two components were correlated with intensity ratings, including temporal lobe regions implicated in memory and emotional functions, such as the hippocampus and amygdala, as well as a midline fronto-cingulo-parietal network implicated in social cognition and self-relevant processing. These data were supported by a general linear model analysis, which revealed additional valence effects in fronto-striatal-insular regions when plays were divided into positive and negative events according to the fan's perspective. Overall, these findings contribute to our understanding of how emotional factors impact distributed neural systems to successfully encode dynamic, personally-relevant event sequences.

Optimal kinetics for quantification of antigen-induced cytokines in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells by real-time PCR and by ELISA.

Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has recently been described as a new tool to measure and accurately quantify mRNA levels. In this study, we have applied this technique to evaluate cytokine mRNA synthesis induced by antigenic stimulation with purified protein derivative (PPD) or heparin-binding haemagglutinin (HBHA) in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from Mycobacterium tuberculosis-infected individuals. Whereas PPD and HBHA optimally induced IL-2 mRNA after respectively 8 and 16 to 24 h of in vitro stimulation, longer in vitro stimulation times were necessary for optimal induction of interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma) mRNA, respectively 16 to 24 h for PPD and 24 to 96 h for HBHA. IL-13 mRNA was optimally induced by in vitro stimulation after 16-48 h for PPD and after 48 to 96 h for HBHA. Comparison of antigen-induced Th1 and Th2 cytokines appears, therefore, valuable only if both cytokine types are analysed at their optimal time point of production, which, for a given cytokine, may differ for each antigen tested. Results obtained by real-time PCR for IFN-gamma and IL-13 mRNA correlated well with those obtained by measuring the cytokine concentrations in cell culture supernatants, provided they were high enough to be detected. We conclude that real-time PCR can be successfully applied to the quantification of antigen-induced cytokine mRNA and to the evaluation of the Th1/Th2 balance, only if the kinetics of cytokine mRNA appearance are taken into account and evaluated for each cytokine measured and each antigen analysed.

Evaluación de la calidad de canal en cerdos vivos mediante ecografía lineal o real

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La enseñanza del concepto de número real en ambientes virtuales interactivos

En este documento, se presentarán las etapas para diseñar un Modelo Instruccional en ambientes virtuales interactivos para la enseñanza de los números Reales, que tiene en cuenta: la formación matemática de los estudiantes, sus “niveles”, sus ritmos de aprendizaje, sus obstáculos en el aprendizaje y el tiempo oficial propuesto por la institución educativa para abordar los temas. Además, se explicitan, organizan y relacionan muchos de los elementos que se conjugan, y se camuflan, en la enseñanza y el aprendizaje de los temas matemáticos. Este diseño plantea ciertos elementos para el análisis del Discurso Matemático, del discurso didáctico y toma ciertos resultados de las investigaciones en Educación Matemática (Taxonomía SOLO y la Teoría de Súperítemes entre otras) para poner en relación los niveles en el discurso didáctico con los niveles de abstracción de los estudiantes.

Virtual manufacturing and design in the real world - implementation and scalability on HPPC systems

Virtual manufacturing and design assessment increasingly involve the simulation of interacting phenomena, sic. multi-physics, an activity which is very computationally intensive. This chapter describes an attempt to address the parallel issues associated with a multi-physics simulation approach based upon a range of compatible procedures operating on one mesh using a single database - the distinct physics solvers can operate separately or coupled on sub-domains of the whole geometric space. Moreover, the finite volume unstructured mesh solvers use different discretization schemes (and, particularly, different ‘nodal’ locations and control volumes). A two-level approach to the parallelization of this simulation software is described: the code is restructured into parallel form on the basis of the mesh partitioning alone, that is, without regard to the physics. However, at run time, the mesh is partitioned to achieve a load balance, by considering the load per node/element across the whole domain. The latter of course is determined by the problem specific physics at a particular location.

Feller transition functions, Resolvent Decomposition Theorems, and their application in unstable denumerable Markov processes

This paper surveys the recent progresses made in the field of unstable denumerable Markov processes. Emphases are laid upon methodology and applications. The important tools of Feller transition functions and Resolvent Decomposition Theorems are highlighted. Their applications particularly in unstable denumerable Markov processes with a single instantaneous state and Markov branching processes are illustrated.

Using an interactive software environment for the parallelization of real-world scientific applications

The parallelization of real-world compute intensive Fortran application codes is generally not a trivial task. If the time to complete the parallelization is to be significantly reduced then an environment is needed that will assist the programmer in the various tasks of code parallelization. In this paper the authors present a code parallelization environment where a number of tools that address the main tasks such as code parallelization, debugging and optimization are available. The ParaWise and CAPO parallelization tools are discussed which enable the near automatic parallelization of real-world scientific application codes for shared and distributed memory-based parallel systems. As user involvement in the parallelization process can introduce errors, a relative debugging tool (P2d2) is also available and can be used to perform nearly automatic relative debugging of a program that has been parallelized using the tools. A high quality interprocedural dependence analysis as well as user-tool interaction are also highlighted and are vital to the generation of efficient parallel code and in the optimization of the backtracking and speculation process used in relative debugging. Results of benchmark and real-world application codes parallelized are presented and show the benefits of using the environment

Assessment of the impact of computed and measured fire environments on building evacuation using bench and real scale test data

This study investigates the use of computer modelled versus directly experimentally determined fire hazard data for assessing survivability within buildings using evacuation models incorporating Fractionally Effective Dose (FED) models. The objective is to establish a link between effluent toxicity, measured using a variety of small and large scale tests, and building evacuation. For the scenarios under consideration, fire simulation is typically used to determine the time non-survivable conditions develop within the enclosure, for example, when smoke or toxic effluent falls below a critical height which is deemed detrimental to evacuation or when the radiative fluxes reach a critical value leading to the onset of flashover. The evacuation calculation would the be used to determine whether people within the structure could evacuate before these critical conditions develop.