Public real estate and the term structure of interest rates: a cross-country study

Using a variation of the Nelson-Siegel term structure model we examine the sensitivity of real estate securities in six key global markets to unexpected changes in the level, slop and curvature of the yield curve. Our results confirm the time-sensitive nature of the exposure and sensitivity to interest rates and highlight the importance of considering the entire term structure of interest rates. One issue that is of particular of interest is that despite the 2007-9 financial crisis the importance of unanticipated interest rate risk weakens post 2003. Although the analysis does examine a range of markets the empirical analysis is unable to provide definitive evidence as to whether REIT and property-company markets display heightened or reduced exposure.

Does foreign investment affect US office real estate prices?

his article examines the impact of foreign real estate investment on U.S. office market capitalization rates. The geographic unit of analysis is MSA and the time period is 2001–2013. Drawing upon a database of commercial real estate transactions, the authors model the determinants of market capitalization rates with a particular focus on the significance of the proportion of market transactions involving foreign investors. Employing several econometric techniques to analyze the data, the results suggest statistically significant effects of foreign investment across 38 U.S. metro areas. It is estimated that, all else equal, a 100 basis point increase in foreign share of total investment in a U.S. metropolitan office market causes about an 8 basis point decrease in the market cap rate.

Liquidity and the drivers of search, due diligence and transaction times for UK commercial real estate investments

Trading commercial real estate involves a process of exchange that is costly and which occurs over an extended and uncertain period of time. This has consequences for the performance and risk of real estate investments. Most research on transaction times has occurred for residential rather than commercial real estate. We study the time taken to transact commercial real estate assets in the UK using a sample of 578 transactions over the period 2004 to 2013. We measure average time to transact from a buyer and seller perspective, distinguishing the search and due diligence phases of the process, and we conduct econometric analysis to explain variation in due diligence times between assets. The median time for purchase of real estate from introduction to completion was 104 days and the median time for sale from marketing to completion was 135 days. There is considerable variation around these times and results suggest that some of this variation is related to market state, type and quality of asset, and type of participants involved in the transaction. Our findings shed light on the drivers of liquidity at an individual asset level and can inform models that quantify the impact of uncertain time on market on real estate investment risk.

A flexible model for survival data with a cure rate: a Bayesian approach

In this paper we deal with a Bayesian analysis for right-censored survival data suitable for populations with a cure rate. We consider a cure rate model based on the negative binomial distribution, encompassing as a special case the promotion time cure model. Bayesian analysis is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We also present some discussion on model selection and an illustration with a real dataset.

COM-Poisson cure rate survival models and an application to a cutaneous melanoma data

In this paper, we develop a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest to follow the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution. This model includes as special cases some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature. Next, we discuss the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of this cure rate survival model. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of this model by applying it to a real cutaneous melanoma data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

VSImG: A high frame rate bitmap based display system for neuroscience research

This paper describes a visual stimulus generator (VSImG) capable of displaying a gray-scale, 256 x 256 x 8 bitmap image with a frame rate of 500 Hz using a boustrophedonic scanning technique. It is designed for experiments with motion-sensitive neurons of the fly`s visual system, where the flicker fusion frequency of the photoreceptors can reach up to 500 Hz. Devices with such a high frame rate are not commercially available, but are required, if sensory systems with high flicker fusion frequency are to be studied. The implemented hardware approach gives us complete real-time control of the displacement sequence and provides all the signals needed to drive an electrostatic deflection display. With the use of analog signals, very small high-resolution displacements, not limited by the image`s pixel size can be obtained. Very slow image displacements with visually imperceptible steps can also be generated. This can be of interest for other vision research experiments. Two different stimulus files can be used simultaneously, allowing the system to generate X-Y displacements on one display or independent movements on two displays as long as they share the same bitmap image. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of the economic activity from the short and long-term interest rate differential: new evidences in Chile and the United States of America cases

The purpose of this work is to verify the stability of the relationship between real activity and interest rate spread. The test is based on Chen (1988) and Osorio and Galea (2006). The analysis is applied to Chile and the United States, from 1980 to 1999. In general, in both cases the relationship was statistically significant in early 80s, but a break point is found in both countries during that decades, suggesting that the relationship depends on the monetary rule follow by the Central Bank.

Potential oscillations in a proton exchange membrane fuel cell with a Pd-Pt/C anode

We report in this paper the occurrence of potential oscillations in a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) with a Pd-Pt/C anode, fed with H(2)/100 ppm CO, and operated at 30 degrees C. We demonstrate that the use of Pd-Pt/C anode enables the emergence of dynamic instabilities in a PEMFC. Oscillations are characterized by the presence of very high oscillation amplitude, ca. 0.8 V. which is almost twice that observed in a PEMFC with a Pt-Ru/C anode under similar conditions. The effects of the H(2)/CO flow rate and cell current density on the oscillatory dynamics were investigated and the mechanism rationalized in terms of the CO oxidation and adsorption processes. We also discuss the fundamental aspects concerning the operation of a PEMFC under oscillatory regime in terms of the benefit resulting from the higher average power output. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigation of Iron (III) desferrioxamine B oxalate ligand exchange by UV-vis spectroscopy: the next step in developing a quantitative analytical method for measuring bioavailable iron in marine ecosystems

To date there are no analytical techniques designed to exclusively measure bioavailable iron in marine environments. The goal of this research is to develop such a technique by isolating the bioavailable iron using the terrestrial siderophore desferrioxamine B (DFB). This project contained many challenging aspects, but the specific goal of this study was to develop a robust analytical technique for quantification of Fe(III)-DFB complexes at nanomolar concentrations. Past work showed that oxalate (Ox) promotes photodissociation of Fe(III)-DFB to Fe(Il), and we are specifically interested in the mechanism of this process. A model was developed using known thermodynamic constants for Fe(III)-DFB and Fe(III) oxalato complexes and adjusting for ionic strength. The model was confirmed by monitoring the UV-VIS absorbance of the system at a variety of oxalate concentrations and pH. The model did not include ternary complexes. Next., the rate of Fe(1I) production during UV irradiation was examined. The results showed that the rate of Fe(II) production was based entirely on the [Fe(Ox)?]3- speciation, and that reoxidation of Fe(II) occurred via reactive oxygen intermediates. This reoxidation could be avoided by either decreasing the oxygen concentration or by adding a Fe(II) stabilizing reagent, such as ferrozine. Further studies need to be done to confirm that these results apply at sub nanomolar concentrations, and the issue of Fe(II) reoxidation at lower Fe concentrations needs to be addressed.