Change in suicide rates in Switzerland before and after firearm restriction resulting from the 2003 “Army XXI” reform

Objective: Firearms are the most common method of suicide among young men in Switzerland. From March 2003 through February 2004, the number of Swiss soldiers was halved as a result of an army reform (Army XXI), leading to a decrease in the availability of guns nationwide. The authors investigated the patterns of the overall suicide rate and the firearm suicide rate before and after the reform. Method: Using a naturalistic study design, the authors compared suicide rates before (1995–2003) and after the intervention (2004–2008) in the affected population (men ages 18–43) and in two comparison groups (women ages 18–44 and men ages 44–53). Data were received from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Interrupted time series analysis was used to control for preexisting temporal trends. Alternative methods (Poisson regression, autocorrelation analysis, and surrogate data tests) were used to check validity. Results: The authors found a reduction in both the overall suicide rate and the firearm suicide rate after the Army XXI reform. No significant increases were found for other suicide methods overall. An increase in railway suicides was observed. It was estimated that 22% of the reduction in firearm suicides was substituted by other suicide methods. The attenuation of the suicide rate was not compensated for during the follow-up years. Neither of the comparison groups showed statistically significant changes in firearm suicide rate and overall suicide rate. Conclusions: The restriction of firearm availability in Switzerland resulting from the Army XXI reform was followed by an enduring decrease in the general suicide rate.

Change in positive affect during outpatient cardiac rehabilitation predicts vital exhaustion in patients with coronary heart disease

Vital exhaustion is an acknowledged psychosocial risk factor of incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and recurrent CHD events. Little is known about trajectories in vital exhaustion in patients with CHD and the factors predicting this change. We hypothesized that vital exhaustion would decrease during outpatient cardiac rehabilitation and that an increase in positive affect over time would be associated with decreased vital exhaustion at discharge from cardiac rehabilitation. We also explored the role of the patient's sex in this context. Vital exhaustion was reduced during outpatient cardiac rehabilitation, especially in patients who experienced an increase in positive affect over time (p < .001). This relationship was significant in men (p < .001) but not in women (p = .11).

Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories and 2) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human time scales. All commitment simulations follow the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to year 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near-preindustrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6-6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs for RCPs 4.5-8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO2 emissions in all EMICs. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to preindustrial levels over 100-1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to preindustrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2.

Synchronous Change of Atmospheric CO₂ and Antarctic Temperature During the Last Deglacial Warming

Understanding the role of atmospheric CO2 during past climate changes requires clear knowledge of how it varies in time relative to temperature. Antarctic ice cores preserve highly resolved records of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature for the past 800,000 years. Here we propose a revised relative age scale for the concentration of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature for the last deglacial warming, using data from five Antarctic ice cores. We infer the phasing between CO2 concentration and Antarctic temperature at four times when their trends change abruptly. We find no significant asynchrony between them, indicating that Antarctic temperature did not begin to rise hundreds of years before the concentration of atmospheric CO2, as has been suggested by earlier studies.

Mechanisms of perceptual learning of depth discrimination in random dot stereograms.

Perceptual learning is a training induced improvement in performance. Mechanisms underlying the perceptual learning of depth discrimination in dynamic random dot stereograms were examined by assessing stereothresholds as a function of decorrelation. The inflection point of the decorrelation function was defined as the level of decorrelation corresponding to 1.4 times the threshold when decorrelation is 0%. In general, stereothresholds increased with increasing decorrelation. Following training, stereothresholds and standard errors of measurement decreased systematically for all tested decorrelation values. Post training decorrelation functions were reduced by a multiplicative constant (approximately 5), exhibiting changes in stereothresholds without changes in the inflection points. Disparity energy model simulations indicate that a post-training reduction in neuronal noise can sufficiently account for the perceptual learning effects. In two subjects, learning effects were retained over a period of six months, which may have application for training stereo deficient subjects.

Change Detection Memory in Rhesus Monkeys and Humans

Visual short-term memory (VSTM) is the storage of visual information over a brief time period (usually a few seconds or less). Over the past decade, the most popular task for studying VSTM in humans has been the change detection task. In this task, subjects must remember several visual items per trial in order to identify a change following a brief delay interval. Results from change detection tasks have shown that VSTM is limited; humans are only able to accurately hold a few visual items in mind over a brief delay. However, there has been much debate in regard to the structure or cause of these limitations. The two most popular conceptualizations of VSTM limitations in recent years have been the fixed-capacity model and the continuous-resource model. The fixed-capacity model proposes a discrete limit on the total number of visual items that can be stored in VSTM. The continuous-resource model proposes a continuous-resource that can be allocated among many visual items in VSTM, with noise in item memory increasing as the number of items to be remembered increases. While VSTM is far from being completely understood in humans, even less is known about VSTM in non-human animals, including the rhesus monkey (Macaca mulatta). Given that rhesus monkeys are the premier medical model for humans, it is important to understand their VSTM if they are to contribute to understanding human memory. The primary goals of this study were to train and test rhesus monkeys and humans in change detection in order to directly compare VSTM between the two species and explore the possibility that direct species comparison might shed light on the fixed-capacity vs. continuous-resource models of VSTM. The comparative results suggest qualitatively similar VSTM for the two species through converging evidence supporting the continuous-resource model and thereby establish rhesus monkeys as a good system for exploring neurophysiological correlates of VSTM.

What's Working in Family-Based Services--or, What's Left to Believe in During a Time of Such Doubt?

This article is a qualitative, personal report from the field, designed to highlight current developments in family-based theory and practice that bring hopefulness to workers and clients. The author, an experienced human services consultant and family therapist, draws from his recent experience in a number of states to identify exemplars of practice in the following areas: integrative theory building, functional family assessment, systems change in regard to inter-agency coordination and foster care, community building in low income neighborhoods, developing humility as helpers, and addressing issues of hope and spirituality with clients and with co-workers. Given the turbulent and hostile political environment for family-based services, this article challenges us to remember that effectiveness in helping others is directly related to our feelings of hopefulness about ourselves and our world.

Land use change and nitrogen feedbacks constrain the trajectory of the land carbon sink

Our understanding of Earth's carbon climate system depends critically upon interactions between rising atmospheric CO2, changing land use, and nitrogen limitation on vegetation growth. Using a global land model, we show how these factors interact locally to generate the global land carbon sink over the past 200 years. Nitrogen constraints were alleviated by N2 fixation in the tropics and by atmospheric nitrogen deposition in extratropical regions. Nonlinear interactions between land use change and land carbon and nitrogen cycling originated from three major mechanisms: (i) a sink foregone that would have occurred without land use conversion; (ii) an accelerated response of secondary vegetation to CO2 and nitrogen, and (iii) a compounded clearance loss from deforestation. Over time, these nonlinear effects have become increasingly important and reduce the present-day net carbon sink by ~40% or 0.4 PgC yr−1.

Comment on “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature” Humlum et al. [Glob. Planet. Change 100: 51–69.]: Isotopes ignored

A recent study relying purely on statistical analysis of relatively short time series suggested substantial re-thinking of the traditional view about causality explaining the detected rising trend of atmospheric CO2 (atmCO2) concentrations. If these results are well-justified then they should surely compel a fundamental scientific shift in paradigms regarding both atmospheric greenhouse warming mechanism and global carbon cycle. However, the presented work suffers from serious logical deficiencies such as, 1) what could be the sink for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, if neither the atmosphere nor the ocean – as suggested by the authors – plays a role? 2) What is the alternative explanation for ocean acidification if the ocean is a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere? Probably the most provocative point of the commented study is that anthropogenic emissions have little influence on atmCO2 concentrations. The authors have obviously ignored the reconstructed and directly measured carbon isotopic trends of atmCO2 (both δ13C, and radiocarbon dilution) and the declining O2/N2 ratio, although these parameters provide solid evidence that fossil fuel combustion is the major source of atmCO2 increase throughout the Industrial Era.

Evaluation of a date rape prevention program for new students in a university setting

The purpose of this study was to design, implement and evaluate the effectiveness of a date rape prevention program among new students at Rice University. Six-hundred and fifteen new students were randomly assigned to one of eight residential colleges or dormitories. The distribution of students to each of the dormitories was carried out in accordance with a stratified random sampling procedure. The study population was divided into strata based on ethnicity, gender, geographical region, and academic major. The number of students randomly assigned to each of the eight dormitories was approximately 75. After this procedure was completed, each of the colleges was randomly selected to either the intervention or control group. A randomized pretest and posttest control group design was used to assess changes in attitudes, self-efficacy, and behavior with regard to date rape. All participants were given an anonymous pretest and posttest measuring attitudes, self-efficacy, and behavior immediately prior to and following the intervention. The intervention group attended the play Scruples, designed to promote date rape prevention, after which they were immediately posttested. After this initial posttest the intervention group also participated in an interactive group role-playing activity led by trained peer instructors. The control group was pretested and subject to the placebo intervention of a multiculturalism play and was posttested immediately afterwards. Later in the week this group saw the Scruples play only. Both control and intervention groups were sent a two month follow-up survey questionnaire, to measure any changes in attitudes, self-efficacy, and behavior over time. As hypothesized students who saw the play Scruples showed a change in attitudes immediately posttest but no difference in self-efficacy or behavior. The two month follow-up survey showed no change in attitudes, self-efficacy, or behavior. There was a difference at pretest in males and females attitudes, with males showing significantly more rape tolerant attitudes than females. Thus, the proposed research findings will provide a better understanding of the attitudes that perpetuate date rape, and will inform strategies for prevention programs. ^

Valuation of ecosystem goods and services. Part 2: Implications of unpredictable novel change

This is the second part of a two-part paper which offers a new approach to the valuation of ecosystem goods and services. In the first part a simple pre-industrial model was introduced to show how the interdependencies between the three subsystems, society, economy and nature, influence values, and how values change over time. In this second part the assumption of perfect foresight is dropped. I argue that due to novelty and complexity ex ante unpredictable change occurs within the three subsystems society, economy and nature. Again the simple pre-industrial model, which was introduced in part 1, serves as a simple paradigm to show how unpredictable novel change limits the possibility to derive accurate estimates of values.

Heterogeneity and time

Although heterogeneity and time are central aspects of economic activity, it was predominantly the Austrian School of economics that emphasized these two aspects. In this paper we argue that the explicit consideration of heterogeneity and time is of increasing importance due to the increasing environmental and resource problems faced by humankind today. It is shown that neo-Austrian capital theory, which revived Austrian ideas employing a formal approach in the 1970s, is not only well suited to address issues of structural change and of accompanying unemployment induced by technical progress but also can be employed for an encompassing ecological-economic analysis demanded by ecological economics. However, complexity, uncertainty, and real ignorance limit the applicability of formal economic analysis. Therefore, we conclude that economic analysis has to be supplemented by considerations of political philosophy. Copyright 2006 American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Inc..

Drivers of collaboration to mitigate climate change: An illustration of Swiss climate policy over 15 years

Climate change mitigation policy is driven by scientific knowledge and involves actors from the international, national and local decision-making levels. This multi-level and cross-sectoral context requires collaborative management when designing mitigation solutions over time and space. But collaboration in general policymaking settings, and particularly in the complex domain of climate mitigation, is not an easy task. This paper addresses the question of what drives collaboration among collective actors involved in climate mitigation policy. We wish to investigate whether common beliefs or power structures influence collaboration among actors. We adopt a longitudinal approach to grasp differences between the early and more advanced stages of mitigation policy design. We use survey data to investigate actors’ collaboration, beliefs and power, and apply a Stochastic Actor-oriented Model for network dynamics to three subsequent networks in Swiss climate policy between 1995 and 2012. Results show that common beliefs among actors, as well as formal power structures, have a higher impact on collaboration relations than perceived power structures. Furthermore, those effects hold true for decision-making about initial mitigation strategies, but less so for the implementation of those measures.

Robust estimates of climate-induced hydrological change in a temperate mountainous region

A sustainable water resources management depends on sound information about the impacts of climate change. This information is, however, not easily derived because natural runoff variability interferes with the climate change signal. This study presents a procedure that leads to robust estimates of magnitude and Time Of Emergence (TOE) of climate-induced hydrological change that also account for the natural variability contained in the time series. Firstly, natural variability of 189 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland is sampled for 10 ENSEMBLES scenarios for the control (1984–2005) and two scenario periods (near future: 2025–2046, far future: 2074–2095) applying a bootstrap procedure. Then, the sampling distributions of mean monthly runoff are tested for significant differences with the Wilcoxon-Mann–Whitney test and for effect size with Cliff’s delta d. Finally, the TOE of a climate change induced hydrological change is determined when at least eight out of the ten hydrological projections significantly differ from natural variability. The results show that the TOE occurs in the near future period except for high-elevated catchments in late summer. The significant hydrological projections in the near future correspond, however, to only minor runoff changes. In the far future, hydrological change is statistically significant and runoff changes are substantial. Temperature change is the most important factor determining hydrological change in this mountainous region. Therefore, hydrological change depends strongly on a catchment’s mean elevation. Considering that the hydrological changes are predicted to be robust in the near future highlights the importance of accounting for these changes in water resources planning.

Local Rates of Ice-Sheet Thickness Change in Greenland

The rate of ice-sheet thickness change is calculated for 10 sites in Greenland by comparing measured values of ice vertical velocity and snow-accumulation rate. Vertical velocities are derived from repeat surveys of markers using precision global positioning system techniques, and accumulation rates are determined from stratigraphic analysis of firn cores. The results apply to time-scales covered by the firn-core records, which in most cases are a few decades. A spectrum of thickness-change rates is obtained, ranging from substantial thinning to slow thickening. The sites where ice-sheet thinning is indicated are located near the ice-sheet margin or in outlet glacier catchments. Interior and high-elevation sites are predominantly in balance or thickening slowly. Uncertainties in the rates of thickness change are dominated by errors in the determination of accumulation rates. The results of this work are broadly comparable with regional estimates of mass balance obtained from the analysis of catchment input vs discharge.