996 resultados para ROC Analysis


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Juvenile xanthogranuloma (JXG) is a non-Langerhans cell histiocytosis (nonLCH). It is a benign and self-healing disorder that generally affects infants and children. Oral lesions in adult patients are rare, although the microscopic findings are similar to those observed in other locations. A 56-year-old white man presented with a chief complaint of a gingival mass that had appeared 6 months before and had grown slowly. An intraoral examination revealed the presence of a solitary, softened gingival mass affecting the mandibular lingual gingiva at the right central incisor area. A biopsy of the lesion showed multiple large macrophages and numerous giant cells of Touton type. The immunohistochemistry positivity for CD68, fascin, factor XIIIa, alpha-antitrypsin and negativity for S-100, beta-actin, CD1a, and desmin confirmed the diagnosis of JXG. The occurrence of adult oral JXG is extremely rare. It is a nonLCH that may present variable clinical and microscopic aspects, which leads to a diversity of clinical misdiagnoses. A precise diagnosis of these lesions requires an accurate evaluation of clinical, microscopic, and immunohistochemical features.

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Background/Aims: There are many controversies regarding side effects on craniofacial and extremity growth due to growth hormone ( GH) treatment. Our aim was to estimate GH action on craniofacial development and extremity growth in GH-deficient patients. Methods: Twenty patients with GH deficiency with a chronological age ranging from 4.6 to 24.3 years (bone age from 1.5 to 13 years) were divided in 2 groups: group 1 (n = 6), naive to GH treatment, and group 2 (n = 14), ongoing GH treatment for 2-11 years. GH doses (0.1 -0.15 U/kg/day) were adjusted to maintain insulin-like growth factor 1 and insulin-like growth factor binding protein 3 levels within the normal range. Anthropometric measurements, cephalometric analyses and facial photographs to verify profile and harmony were performed annually for at least 3 years. Results: Two patients with a disharmonious profile due to mandibular growth attained harmony, and none of them developed facial disharmony. Increased hand or foot size (>P97) was observed in 2 female patients and in 4 patients (1 female), respectively, both not correlated with GH treatment duration and increased levels of insulin-like growth factor 1. Conclusions: GH treatment with standard doses in GH-deficient patients can improve the facial profile in retrognathic patients and does not lead to facial disharmony although extremity growth, mainly involving the feet, can occur. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

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Background/Aims: Statistical analysis of age-at-onset involving family data is particularly complicated because there is a correlation pattern that needs to be modeled and also because there are measurements that are censored. In this paper, our main purpose was to evaluate the effect of genetic and shared family environmental factors on age-at-onset of three cardiovascular risk factors: hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol. Methods: The mixed-effects Cox model proposed by Pankratz et al. [2005] was used to analyze the data from 81 families, involving 1,675 individuals from the village of Baependi, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Results: The analyses performed showed that the polygenic effect plays a greater role than the shared family environmental effect in explaining the variability of the age-at-onset of hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol. The model which simultaneously evaluated both effects indicated that there are individuals which may have risk of hypertension due to polygenic effects 130% higher than the overall average risk for the entire sample. For diabetes and high cholesterol the risks of some individuals were 115 and 45%, respectively, higher than the overall average risk for the entire population. Conclusions: Results showed evidence of significant polygenic effects indicating that age-at-onset is a useful trait for gene mapping of the common complex diseases analyzed. In addition, we found that the polygenic random component might absorb the effects of some covariates usually considered in the risk evaluation, such as gender, age and BMI. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

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Neutron activation analysis was applied to assess trace element concentrations in brain tissues from normal (n = 21) and demented individuals (n = 21) of both genders aged more than 50 years. Concentrations of the elements Br, Fe, K, Na, Rb, Se and Zn were determined. Comparisons were made between the results obtained for the hippocampus and frontal cortex tissues, as well as, those obtained in brains of normal and demented individuals. Certified reference materials, NIST 1566b Oyster Tissue and NIST 1577b Bovine Liver were analyzed for quality of the analytical results.

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This study was performed to check if recommendations based on three-dimensional gait analysis (3DGA) are associated with better postoperative outcomes in patients with cerebral palsy (CP). Thirty-eight patients who underwent orthopedic surgery and assessment at the Gait Analysis Laboratory were evaluated retrospectively. The patients were divided in four groups according to the agreement between the recommendations from gait analysis and the procedures actually carried out. Fifteen patients with diplegic spastic cerebral palsy and indication for orthopedic surgery to improve walking - and whose surgical intervention was postponed - were also included in the study as a control group. Fourteen gait parameters recorded before and after treatment, were included in the statistical analysis. No gait improvement was noted in the control group or inh patients on whom no procedures recommended by the gait exam were performed (agreement of 0%). In the other groups, agreements averaged 46.71%, 72.2%, and 100%, respectively. Improvement of gait parameters after treatment was observed in these groups, with more significant values directly related to increased agreement percentage. Therefore, in this study the patients whose treatment matched the recommendations from three-dimensional gait analysis showed a more significant improvement in walking. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Diagnosis of autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) may be challenging. However, early diagnosis is important because immunosuppression is life-saving. Diagnostic criteria of the International Autoimmune Hepatitis Group (IAIHG) were complex and purely meant for scientific purposes. This study of the IAIHG aims to define simplified diagnostic criteria for routine clinical practice. Candidate criteria included sex, age, autoantibodies, immunoglobutins, absence of viral hepatitis, and histology. The training set included 250 AIH patients and 193 controls from 11 centers worldwide. Scores were built from variables showing predictive ability in univariate analysis. Diagnostic value of each score was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The best score was validated using data of an additional 109 AIH patients and 284 controls. This score included autoantibodies, immunoglobulin G, histology, and exclusion of viral hepatitis. The area under the curve for prediction of AIH was 0.946 in the training set and 0.91 in the validation set. Based on the ROC curves, two cutoff points were chosen. The score was found to have 88% sensitivity and 97% specificity (cutoff >= 6) and 81% sensitivity and 99% specificity (cutoff 2:7) in the validation set. Conclusion: A reliable diagnosis of AIH can be made using a very simple diagnostic score. We propose the diagnosis of probable AIH at a cutoff point greater than 6 points and definite AIH 7 points or higher.

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We present the first comprehensive study, to our knowledge, on genomic chromosomal analysis in syndromic craniosynostosis. In total, 45 patients with craniosynostotic disorders were screened with a variety of methods including conventional karyotype, microsatellite segregation analysis, subtelomeric multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification) and whole-genome array-based comparative genome hybridisation. Causative abnormalities were present in 42.2% (19/45) of the samples, and 27.8% (10/36) of the patients with normal conventional karyotype carried submicroscopic imbalances. Our results include a wide variety of imbalances and point to novel chromosomal regions associated with craniosynostosis. The high incidence of pure duplications or trisomies suggests that these are important mechanisms in craniosynostosis, particularly in cases involving the metopic suture.

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PURPOSE. To assess whether baseline Glaucoma Probability Score (GPS; HRT-3; Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany) results are predictive of progression in patients with suspected glaucoma. The GPS is a new feature of the confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope that generates an operator-independent, three-dimensional model of the optic nerve head and gives a score for the probability that this model is consistent with glaucomatous damage. METHODS. The study included 223 patients with suspected glaucoma during an average follow-up of 63.3 months. Included subjects had a suspect optic disc appearance and/or elevated intraocular pressure, but normal visual fields. Conversion was defined as development of either repeatable abnormal visual fields or glaucomatous deterioration in the appearance of the optic disc during the study period. The association between baseline GPS and conversion was investigated by Cox regression models. RESULTS. Fifty-four (24.2%) eyes converted. In multivariate models, both higher values of GPS global and subjective stereophotograph assessment ( larger cup-disc ratio and glaucomatous grading) were predictive of conversion: adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI): 1.31 (1.15 - 1.50) per 0.1 higher global GPS, 1.34 (1.12 - 1.62) per 0.1 higher CDR, and 2.34 (1.22 - 4.47) for abnormal grading, respectively. No significant differences ( P > 0.05 for all comparisons) were found between the c-index values ( equivalent to area under ROC curve) for the multivariate models (0.732, 0.705, and 0.699, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. GPS values were predictive of conversion in our population of patients with suspected glaucoma. Further, they performed as well as subjective assessment of the optic disc. These results suggest that GPS could potentially replace stereophotograph as a tool for estimating the likelihood of conversion to glaucoma.

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Objective. The objective of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of a universal rotavirus vaccination program among children : 5 years of age in Brazil. Methods. Considering a hypothetical annual cohort of approximately 3 300 000 newborns followed over 5 years, a decision-tree model was constructed to examine the possible clinical and economic effects of rotavirus infection with and without routine vaccination of children. Probabilities and unit costs were derived from published research and national administrative data. The impact of different estimates for key parameters was studied using sensitivity analysis. The analysis was conducted from both healthcare system and societal perspectives. Results. The vaccination program was estimated to prevent approximately 1735 351 (54%) of the 3 210 361 cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis and 703 (75%) of 933 rotavirus-associated deaths during the 5-year period. At a vaccine price of 18.6 Brazilian reais (R$) per dose, this program would cost R$121 673 966 and would save R$38 536 514 in direct costs to the public healthcare system and R$71 778 377 in direct and indirect costs to society. The program was estimated to cost R$1 028 and R$1 713 per life-years saved (LYS)from the societal and healthcare system perspectives, respectively. Conclusions. Universal rotavirus vaccination was a cost-effective strategy for both perspectives. However, these findings are highly sensitive to diarrhea incidence rate, proportion of severe cases, vaccine coverage, and vaccine price.

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Objective: To develop a model to predict the bleeding source and identify the cohort amongst patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) who require urgent intervention, including endoscopy. Patients with acute GIB, an unpredictable event, are most commonly evaluated and managed by non-gastroenterologists. Rapid and consistently reliable risk stratification of patients with acute GIB for urgent endoscopy may potentially improve outcomes amongst such patients by targeting scarce health-care resources to those who need it the most. Design and methods: Using ICD-9 codes for acute GIB, 189 patients with acute GIB and all. available data variables required to develop and test models were identified from a hospital medical records database. Data on 122 patients was utilized for development of the model and on 67 patients utilized to perform comparative analysis of the models. Clinical data such as presenting signs and symptoms, demographic data, presence of co-morbidities, laboratory data and corresponding endoscopic diagnosis and outcomes were collected. Clinical data and endoscopic diagnosis collected for each patient was utilized to retrospectively ascertain optimal management for each patient. Clinical presentations and corresponding treatment was utilized as training examples. Eight mathematical models including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), shrunken centroid (SC), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and boosting were trained and tested. The performance of these models was compared using standard statistical analysis and ROC curves. Results: Overall the random forest model best predicted the source, need for resuscitation, and disposition with accuracies of approximately 80% or higher (accuracy for endoscopy was greater than 75%). The area under ROC curve for RF was greater than 0.85, indicating excellent performance by the random forest model Conclusion: While most mathematical models are effective as a decision support system for evaluation and management of patients with acute GIB, in our testing, the RF model consistently demonstrated the best performance. Amongst patients presenting with acute GIB, mathematical models may facilitate the identification of the source of GIB, need for intervention and allow optimization of care and healthcare resource allocation; these however require further validation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.