A review of economic analysis in the vaccination program; decision making and governance: Adivisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) develops written recommendations for the routine administration of vaccines to children and adults in the U.S. civilian population. The ACIP is the only entity in the federal government that makes such recommendations. ACIP elaborates on selection of its members and rules out concerns regarding its integrity, but fails to provide information about the importance of economic analysis in vaccine selection. ACIP recommendations can have large health and economic consequences. Emphasis on economic evaluation in health is a likely response to severe pressures of the federal and state health budget. This study describes the economic aspects considered by the ACIP while sanctioning a vaccine, and reviews the economic evaluations (our economic data) provided for vaccine deliberations. A five year study period from 2004 to 2009 is adopted. Publicly available data from ACIP web database is used. Drummond et al. (2005) checklist serves as a guide to assess the quality of economic evaluations presented. Drummond et al.'s checklist is a comprehensive hence it is unrealistic to expect every ACIP deliberation to meet all of their criteria. For practical purposes we have selected seven criteria that we judge to be significant criteria provided by Drummond et al. Twenty-four data points were obtained in a five year period. Our results show that out of the total twenty-four data point‘s (economic evaluations) only five data points received a score of six; that is six items on the list of seven were met. None of the data points received a perfect score of seven. Seven of the twenty-four data points received a score of five. A minimum of a two score was received by only one of the economic analyses. The type of economic evaluation along with the model criteria and ICER/QALY criteria met at 0.875 (87.5%). These three criteria were met at the highest rate among the seven criteria studied. Our study findings demonstrate that the perspective criteria met at 0.583 (58.3%) followed by source and sensitivity analysis criteria both tied at 0.541 (54.1%). The discount factor was met at 0.250 (25.0%).^ Economic analysis is not a novel concept to the ACIP. It has been practiced and presented at these meetings on a regular basis for more than five years. ACIP‘s stated goal is to utilize good quality epidemiologic, clinical and economic analyses to help policy makers choose among alternatives presented and thus achieve a better informed decision. As seen in our study the economic analyses over the years are inconsistent. The large variability coupled with lack of a standardized format may compromise the utility of the economic information for decision-making. While making recommendations, the ACIP takes into account all available information about a vaccine. Thus it is vital that standardized high quality economic information is provided at the ACIP meetings. Our study may provide a call for the ACIP to further investigate deficiencies within the system and thereby to improve economic evaluation data presented. ^

Disease risk factors and humoral antibody response to periodontal-associated pathogens: A model to evaluate periodontal disease in older adults

Periodontal diseases (PD) are infectious, inflammatory, and tissue destructive events which affect the periodontal ligament that surround and support the teeth. Periodontal diseases are the major cause of tooth loss after age 35, with gingivitis and periodontitis affecting 75% of the adult population. A select group of bacterial organisms are associated with periodontal pathogenesis. There is a direct association between oral hygiene and prevention of PD. The importance of genetic differences and host immune response capabilities in determining host, susceptibility or resistance to PD has not been established. This study examined the risk factors and serum (humoral) immune response to periodontal diseased-associated pathogens in a 55 to 80+ year old South Texas study sample with PD. This study sample was described by: age, sex, ethnicity, the socioeconomic factors marital status, income and occupation, IgG, IgA, IgM immunoglobulin status, and the autoimmune response markers rheumatoid factor (RF) and antinuclear antibody (ANA). These variables were used to determine the risk factors associated with development of PD. Serum IgG, IgA, IgM antibodies to bacterial antigens provided evidence for disease exposure.^ A causal model for PD was constructed from associations for risk factors (ethnicity, marital status, income, and occupation) with dental exam and periodontitis. The multiple correlation between PD and ethnicity, income and dental exam was significant. Hispanics of low income were least likely to have had a dental exam in the last year and most likely to have PD. The etiologic agents for PD, as evidenced by elevated humoral antibody responses, were the Gram negative microorganisms Bacteroides gingivalis, serotypes FDC381 and SUNYaBA7A1-28, and Wolinella recta. Recommendation for a PD prevention and control program are provided. ^

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SERUM CHOLESTEROL AND CANCER INCIDENCE IN THE POPULATION OF THE HYPERTENSION DETECTION AND FOLLOW-UP PROGRAM

The relationship between serum cholesterol and cancer incidence was investigated in the population of the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program (HDFP). The HDFP was a multi-center trial designed to test the effectiveness of a stepped program of medication in reducing mortality associated with hypertension. Over 10,000 participants, ages 30-69, were followed with clinic and home visits for a minimum of five years. Cancer incidence was ascertained from existing study documents, which included hospitalization records, autopsy reports and death certificates. During the five years of follow-up, 286 new cancer cases were documented. The distribution of sites and total number of cases were similar to those predicted using rates from the Third National Cancer Survey. A non-fasting baseline serum cholesterol level was available for most participants. Age, sex, and race specific five-year cancer incidence rates were computed for each cholesterol quartile. Rates were also computed by smoking status, education status, and percent ideal weight quartiles. In addition, these and other factors were investigated with the use of the multiple logistic model.^ For all cancers combined, a significant inverse relationship existed between baseline serum cholesterol levels and cancer incidence. Previously documented associations between smoking, education and cancer were also demonstrated but did not account for the relationship between serum cholesterol and cancer. The relationship was more evident in males than females but this was felt to represent the different distribution of occurrence of specific cancer sites in the two sexes. The inverse relationship existed for all specific sites investigated (except breast) although a level of statistical significance was reached only for prostate carcinoma. Analyses after exclusion of cases diagnosed during the first two years of follow-up still yielded an inverse relationship. Life table analysis indicated that competing risks during the period of follow-up did not account for the existence of an inverse relationship. It is concluded that a weak inverse relationship does exist between serum cholesterol for many but not all cancer sites. This relationship is not due to confounding by other known cancer risk factors, competing risks or persons entering the study with undiagnosed cancer. Not enough information is available at the present time to determine whether this relationship is causal and further research is suggested. ^

AN ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF RACE, INCOME, EDUCATION, AND FOOD STAMP PROGRAM PARTICIPATION/NONPARTICIPATION ON THE FOOD AND NUTRIENT CONSUMPTION OF A NORTH FLORIDA URBAN CLINIC POPULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURVEY OF NUTRITION RELATED HABITS AND ATTITUDES

The relative influence of race, income, education, and Food Stamp Program participation/nonparticipation on the food and nutrient intake of 102 fecund women ages 18-45 years in a Florida urban clinic population was assessed using the technique of multiple regression analysis. Study subgroups were defined by race and Food Stamp Program participation status. Education was found to have the greatest influence on food and nutrient intake. Race was the next most influential factor followed in order by Food Stamp Program participation and income. The combined effect of the four independent variables explained no more than 19 percent of the variance for any of the food and nutrient intake variables. This would indicate that a more complex model of influences is needed if variations in food and nutrient intake are to be fully explained.^ A socioeconomic questionnaire was administered to investigate other factors of influence. The influence of the mother, frequency and type of restaurant dining, and perceptions of food intake and weight were found to be factors deserving further study.^ Dietary data were collected using the 24-hour recall and food frequency checklist. Descriptive dietary findings indicated that iron and calcium were nutrients where adequacy was of concern for all study subgroups. White Food Stamp Program participants had the greatest number of mean nutrient intake values falling below the 1980 Recommended Dietary Allowances (RDAs). When Food Stamp Program participants were contrasted to nonparticipants, mean intakes of six nutrients (kilocalories, calcium, iron, vitamin A, thiamin, and riboflavin) were below the 1980 RDA compared to five mean nutrient intakes (kilocalories, calcium, iron, thiamin and riboflavin) for the nonparticipants. Use of the Index of Nutritional Quality (INQ), however, revealed that the quality of the diet of Food Stamp Program participants per 1000 kilocalories was adequate with exception of calcium and iron. Intakes of these nutrients were also not adequate on a 1000 kilocalorie basis for the nonparticipant group. When mean nutrient intakes of the groups were compared using Student's t-test oleicacid intake was the only significant difference found. Being a nonparticipant in the Food Stamp Program was found to be associated with more frequent consumption of cookies, sweet rolls, doughnuts, and honey. The findings of this study contradict the negative image of the Food Stamp Program participant and emphasize the importance of education. ^

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEGREE OF BLOOD PRESSURE REDUCTION AND MORTALITY AMONG HYPERTENSIVES IN THE HYPERTENSION DETECTION AND FOLLOW-UP PROGRAM

The relationship between degree of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) reduction and mortality was examined among hypertensives, ages 30-69, in the Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program (HDFP). The HDFP was a multi-center community-based trial, which followed 10,940 hypertensive participants for five years. One-year survival was required for inclusion in this investigation since the one-year annual visit was the first occasion where change in blood pressure could be measured on all participants. During the subsequent four years of follow-up on 10,052 participants, 568 deaths occurred. For levels of change in DBP and for categories of variables related to mortality, the crude mortality rate was calculated. Time-dependent life tables were also calculated so as to utilize available blood pressure data over time. In addition, the Cox life table regression model, extended to take into account both time-constant and time-dependent covariates, was used to examine the relationship change in blood pressure over time and mortality.^ The results of the time-dependent life table and time-dependent Cox life table regression analyses supported the existence of a quadratic function which modeled the relationship between DBP reduction and mortality, even after adjusting for other risk factors. The minimum mortality hazard ratio, based on a particular model, occurred at a DBP reduction of 22.6 mm Hg (standard error = 10.6) in the whole population and 8.5 mm Hg (standard error = 4.6) in the baseline DBP stratum 90-104. After this reduction, there was a small increase in the risk of death. There was not evidence of the quadratic function after fitting the same model using systolic blood pressure. Methodologic issues involved in studying a particular degree of blood pressure reduction were considered. The confidence interval around the change corresponding to the minimum hazard ratio was wide and the obtained blood pressure level should not be interpreted as a goal for treatment. Blood pressure reduction was attributed, not only to pharmacologic therapy, but also to regression to the mean, and to other unknown factors unrelated to treatment. Therefore, the surprising results of this study do not provide direct implications for treatment, but strongly suggest replication in other populations. ^

Community health workers: The critical link to sustainable, healthy societies in low-resource settings---A model for the Baylor Shoulder to Shoulder Foundation

Community health workers (CHWs) can serve as a bridge between healthcare providers and communities to positively impact social determinants of health and, thus, the overall health of the population. The potential to effect lasting change is particularly significant within resource-poor settings with limited access to formally trained health care providers such as the small, rural village of Santa Ana Intibucá, Honduras and surrounding areas—located on the geographically and politically isolated border of Honduras and El Salvador. The Baylor Shoulder to Shoulder Foundation (BSTS) works in conjunction with Santa Ana's volunteer health committee to bring a health brigade that has provided health care and public health projects to the area at least twice a year since 2001. They have also hired a full-time Honduran physician, a Honduran in-country administrative director, and built a clinic; yet, no community health worker program exists. This CHW program model is the response to a clear need for a CHW program within the area served by BSTS and presents a CHW program model specific to Santa Ana Intibucá and surrounding areas to be implemented by BSTS. Methods used to develop this model include reviewing the literature for recommendations from leading authorities as well as successfully implemented CHW programs in comparable regions. This information was incorporated into existing knowledge and materials currently being used in the area. Using the CHW model proposed here, each brigade, in conjunction with the communities served, can help develop new modules to respond to the specific health priorities of the region at that time, incorporating consistent modes of contact with the local physician and the CHWs to provide refresher courses, training in new topics of interest, and to be reminded of the importance of community health workers' role as the critical link to healthy societies. With cooperation, effort, and support, the brigade can continue to help integrate a sustainable CHW system in which communities may be able to maximize the care they receive while also learning to care for their own health and the future of their communities.^

Sacred vocation program follow up evaluation at the Baylor healthcare system

Background: The Sacred Vocation Program (SVP) (Amick B, Karff S., 2003) helps workers find meaning, spirituality, and see their job as a sacred vocation. The SVP is based on Participatory Action Research (PAR) (Minkler & Wallerstein, 1997; Parker & Wall, 1998). This study aims to evaluate the SVP implemented at the Baylor Healthcare System, Dallas-Fort Worth. ^ Methods: The study design is a qualitative design. We used data from study participants who have participated in focus groups. During these focus groups specific questions and probes regarding the effectiveness of the SVP have been asked. We analyzed the focus groups and derived themes. ^ Results: Results of this study demonstrate SVP helps graduates feel valued and important. The SVP has improved meaningful work for employees and improved a sense of belonging for participants. The program has also increased participant spirituality. The coping techniques developed during a SVP class helps participants deal with stressful situations. The SVP faces challenges of implementation fidelity, poor communication, program viability in tough economic times and implementation of phase II. Another sustainability challenge for SVP is the perception of the program being a religious one versus a spiritual program. ^ Conclusion: Several aspects of the SVP work. The phase I of SVP is successful in improving meaningful work and a sense of belonging for participants. The coping techniques help participants deal with difficult work situations. The SVP can increase effectiveness through improvements in implementation fidelity, communication and leadership commitment. ^

Effects of a health advocacy program to promote physical activity and nutrition behaviors among adolescents: An evaluation of the Young Leaders for Healthy Change program

Background. This study was designed to evaluate the effects of the Young Leaders for Healthy Change program, an internet-delivered program in the school setting that emphasized health advocacy skills-development, on nutrition and physical activity behaviors among older adolescents (13–18 years). The program consisted of online curricular modules, training modules, social media, peer and parental support, and a community service project. Module content was developed based on Social Cognitive Theory and known determinants of behavior for older adolescents. ^ Methods. Of the 283 students who participated in the fall 2011 YL program, 38 students participated in at least ten of the 12 weeks and were eligible for this study. This study used a single group-only pretest/posttest evaluation design. Participants were 68% female, 58% white/Caucasian, 74% 10th or 11th graders, and 89% mostly A and/or B students. The primary behavioral outcomes for this analysis were participation in 60-minutes of physical activity per day, 20-minutes of vigorous- or moderate- intensity physical activity (MVPA) participation per day, television and computer time, fruit and vegetable (FV) intake, sugar-sweetened beverage intake, and consumption of breakfast, home-cooked meals, and fast food. Other outcomes included knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes related to healthy eating, physical activity, and advocacy skills. ^ Findings. Among the 38 participants, no significant changes in any variables were observed. However, among those who did not previously meet behavioral goals there was an 89% increase in students who participated in more than 20 minutes of MVPA per day and a 58% increase in students who ate home-cooked meals 5–7 days per week. The majority of participants met program goals related to knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes prior to the start of the program. Participants reported either maintaining or improving to the goal at posttest for all items except FV intake knowledge, taste and affordability of healthy foods, interest in teaching others about being healthy, and ease of finding ways to advocate in the community. ^ Conclusions. The results of this evaluation indicated that promoting healthy behaviors requires different strategies than maintaining healthy behaviors among high school students. In the school setting, programs need to target the promotion and maintenance of health behaviors to engage all students who participate in the program as part of a class or club activity. Tailoring the program using screening and modifying strategies to meet the needs of all students may increase the potential reach of the program. The Transtheoretical Model may provide information on how to develop a tailored program. Additional research on how to utilize the constructs of TTM effectively among high school students needs to be conducted. Further evaluation studies should employ a more expansive evaluation to assess the long-term effectiveness of health advocacy programming.^

Health outcomes, quality improvement and cost-effectiveness of the Community Diabetes Education (CoDE) program: Results of a randomized controlled trial

The objectives of this dissertation were to evaluate health outcomes, quality improvement measures, and the long-term cost-effectiveness and impact on diabetes-related microvascular and macrovascular complications of a community health worker-led culturally tailored diabetes education and management intervention provided to uninsured Mexican Americans in an urban faith-based clinic. A prospective, randomized controlled repeated measures design was employed to compare the intervention effects between: (1) an intervention group (n=90) that participated in the Community Diabetes Education (CoDE) program along with usual medical care; and (2) a wait-listed comparison group (n=90) that received only usual medical care. Changes in hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and secondary outcomes (lipid status, blood pressure and body mass index) were assessed using linear mixed-models and an intention-to-treat approach. The CoDE group experienced greater reduction in HbA1c (-1.6%, p<.001) than the control group (-.9%, p<.001) over the 12 month study period. After adjusting for group-by-time interaction, antidiabetic medication use at baseline, changes made to the antidiabetic regime over the study period, duration of diabetes and baseline HbA1c, a statistically significant intervention effect on HbA1c (-.7%, p=.02) was observed for CoDE participants. Process and outcome quality measures were evaluated using multiple mixed-effects logistic regression models. Assessment of quality indicators revealed that the CoDE intervention group was significantly more likely to have received a dilated retinal examination than the control group, and 53% achieved a HbA1c below 7% compared with 38% of control group subjects. Long-term cost-effectiveness and impact on diabetes-related health outcomes were estimated through simulation modeling using the rigorously validated Archimedes Model. Over a 20 year time horizon, CoDE participants were forecasted to have less proliferative diabetic retinopathy, fewer foot ulcers, and reduced numbers of foot amputations than control group subjects who received usual medical care. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $355 per quality-adjusted life-year gained was estimated for CoDE intervention participants over the same time period. The results from the three areas of program evaluation: impact on short-term health outcomes, quantification of improvement in quality of diabetes care, and projection of long-term cost-effectiveness and impact on diabetes-related health outcomes provide evidence that a community health worker can be a valuable resource to reduce diabetes disparities for uninsured Mexican Americans. This evidence supports formal integration of community health workers as members of the diabetes care team.^

The number and timing of time -dependent covariate measurements for the Cox regression model

The problem of analyzing data with updated measurements in the time-dependent proportional hazards model arises frequently in practice. One available option is to reduce the number of intervals (or updated measurements) to be included in the Cox regression model. We empirically investigated the bias of the estimator of the time-dependent covariate while varying the effect of failure rate, sample size, true values of the parameters and the number of intervals. We also evaluated how often a time-dependent covariate needs to be collected and assessed the effect of sample size and failure rate on the power of testing a time-dependent effect.^ A time-dependent proportional hazards model with two binary covariates was considered. The time axis was partitioned into k intervals. The baseline hazard was assumed to be 1 so that the failure times were exponentially distributed in the ith interval. A type II censoring model was adopted to characterize the failure rate. The factors of interest were sample size (500, 1000), type II censoring with failure rates of 0.05, 0.10, and 0.20, and three values for each of the non-time-dependent and time-dependent covariates (1/4,1/2,3/4).^ The mean of the bias of the estimator of the coefficient of the time-dependent covariate decreased as sample size and number of intervals increased whereas the mean of the bias increased as failure rate and true values of the covariates increased. The mean of the bias of the estimator of the coefficient was smallest when all of the updated measurements were used in the model compared with two models that used selected measurements of the time-dependent covariate. For the model that included all the measurements, the coverage rates of the estimator of the coefficient of the time-dependent covariate was in most cases 90% or more except when the failure rate was high (0.20). The power associated with testing a time-dependent effect was highest when all of the measurements of the time-dependent covariate were used. An example from the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program Cooperative Research Group is presented. ^

Neocortical hyperexcitability defect in a mutant mouse model of spike-wave epilepsy, {\it stargazer}

Single-locus mutations in mice can express epileptic phenotypes and provide critical insights into the naturally occurring defects that alter excitability and mediate synchronization in the central nervous system (CNS). One such recessive mutation (on chromosome (Chr) 15), stargazer(stg/stg) expresses frequent bilateral 6-7 cycles per second (c/sec) spike-wave seizures associated with behavioral arrest, and provides a valuable opportunity to examine the inherited lesion associated with spike-wave synchronization.^ The existence of distinct and heterogeneous defects mediating spike-wave discharge (SWD) generation has been demonstrated by the presence of multiple genetic loci expressing generalized spike-wave activity and the differential effects of pharmacological agents on SWDs in different spike-wave epilepsy models. Attempts at understanding the different basic mechanisms underlying spike-wave synchronization have focused on $\gamma$-aminobutyric acid (GABA) receptor-, low threshold T-type Ca$\sp{2+}$ channel-, and N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDA-R)-mediated transmission. It is believed that defects in these modes of transmission can mediate the conversion of normal oscillations in a trisynaptic circuit, which includes the neocortex, reticular nucleus and thalamus, into spike-wave activity. However, the underlying lesions involved in spike-wave synchronization have not been clearly identified.^ The purpose of this research project was to locate and characterize a distinct neuronal hyperexcitability defect favoring spike-wave synchronization in the stargazer brain. One experimental approach for anatomically locating areas of synchronization and hyperexcitability involved an attempt to map patterns of hypersynchronous activity with antibodies to activity-induced proteins.^ A second approach to characterizing the neuronal defect involved examining the neuronal responses in the mutant following application of pharmacological agents with well known sites of action.^ In order to test the hypothesis that an NMDA receptor mediated hyperexcitability defect exists in stargazer neocortex, extracellular field recordings were used to examine the effects of CPP and MK-801 on coronal neocortical brain slices of stargazer and wild type perfused with 0 Mg$\sp{2+}$ artificial cerebral spinal fluid (aCSF).^ To study how NMDA receptor antagonists might promote increased excitability in stargazer neocortex, two basic hypotheses were tested: (1) NMDA receptor antagonists directly activate deep layer principal pyramidal cells in the neocortex of stargazer, presumably by opening NMDA receptor channels altered by the stg mutation; and (2) NMDA receptor antagonists disinhibit the neocortical network by blocking recurrent excitatory synaptic inputs onto inhibitory interneurons in the deep layers of stargazer neocortex.^ In order to test whether CPP might disinhibit the 0 Mg$\sp{2+}$ bursting network in the mutant by acting on inhibitory interneurons, the inhibitory inputs were pharmacologically removed by application of GABA receptor antagonists to the cortical network, and the effects of CPP under 0 Mg$\sp{2+}$aCSF perfusion in layer V of stg/stg were then compared with those found in +/+ neocortex using in vitro extracellular field recordings. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^

Predicting smokeless tobacco cessation in a blue -collar population

The use of smokeless tobacco products is undergoing an alarming resurgence in the United States. Several national surveys have reported a higher prevalence of use among those employed in blue-collar occupations. National objectives now target this group for health promotion programs which reduce the health risks associated with tobacco use.^ Drawn from a larger data set measuring health behaviors, this cross-sectional study tested the applicability of two related theories, the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), to smokeless tobacco (SLT) cessation in a blue-collar population of gas pipeline workers. In order to understand the determinants of SLT cessation, measures were obtained of demographic and normative characteristics of the population and specific constructs. Attitude toward the act of quitting (AACT) and subjective norm (SN) are constructs common to both models, perceived behavioral control (PBC) is unique to the TPB, and the number of past quit attempts is not contained in either model. In addition, a self-reported measure was taken of SLT use at two-month follow-up.^ The study population was comprised of all male SLT users who were field employees in a large gas pipeline company with gas compressor stations extending from Texas to the Canadian border. At baseline, 199 employees responded to the SLT portion of the survey, 118 completed some portion of the two-month follow-up, and 101 could be matched across time.^ As hypothesized, significant correlations were found between constructs antecedent to AACT and SN, although crossover effects occurred. Significant differences were found between SLT cessation intenders and non-intenders with regard to their personal and normative beliefs about quitting as well as their outcome expectancies and motivation to comply with others' beliefs. These differences occurred in the expected direction, with the mean intender score consistently higher than that of the non-intender.^ Contrary to hypothesis, AACT predicted intention to quit but SN did not. However, confirmatory of the TPB, PBC, operationalized as self-efficacy, independently contributed to the prediction of intention. Statistically significant relationships were not found between intention, perceived behavioral control, their interactive effects, and use behavior at two-month follow-up. The introduction of number of quit attempts into the logistic regression model resulted in insignificant findings for independent and interactive effects.^ The findings from this study are discussed in relation to their implications for program development and practice, especially within the worksite. In order to confirm and extend the findings of this investigation, recommendations for future research are also discussed. ^

Dinoflagellate cyst counts and age model from sediment samples of ODP Hole 175-1085A

Sediment samples from ODP Site 1085 were investigated in order to obtain more information on the initiation and development of the Benguela upwelling system during the middle and upper Miocene. In particular, our intent was to establish the causes of the upwelling as well as the response of the upwelling regime to the development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Based on changes in the calcareous dinoflagellate cyst association, we found an initial increase of the dinoflagellate cyst productivity, probably related to the initiation of upwelling about 11.8 Ma ago. Two distinct increases in cyst productivity in conjunction with temperature decreases of the upper water masses reflect upwelling pulses off Namibia and occur at the end of the Miocene cooling events Mi5 (about 11.5 Ma) and Mi6 (about 10.5 Ma). Both cooling events are associated with an ice volume increase in Antarctica and are thought to have led to an increase in southeasterly winds, possibly causing these two upwelling pulses. We demonstrate a decrease in dinoflagellate cyst productivity and enhanced terrigenous input via the Orange River after the Mi5 event. At about 11.1 Ma, the dinoflagellate cyst productivity increases again. The polar cyst species Caracomia arctica occurs here for the first time. This implies an influence of subantarctic mode water and therefore a change in the quality of the upwelling water which allowed the Benguela upwelling to develop into modern conditions. From about 10.4 Ma, C. arctica forms a permanent part of the association, pointing to an establishment of the upwelling regime.

Age model and Nd isotope ratios of DSDO Hole 43-386 and ODP Hole 210-1276A

Modern thermohaline circulation plays a role in latitudinal heat transport and in deep-ocean ventilation, yet ocean circulation may have functioned differently during past periods of extreme warmth, such as the Cretaceous. The Late Cretaceous (100-65 Ma) was an important period in the evolution of the North Atlantic Ocean, characterized by opening ocean gateways, long-term climatic cooling and the cessation of intermittent periods of anoxia (oceanic anoxic events, OAEs). However, how these phenomena relate to deep-water circulation is unclear. We use a proxy for deep-water mass composition (neodymium isotopes; e-Nd) to show that, at North Atlantic ODP Site 1276, deep waters shifted in the early Campanian (~78-83 Ma) from e-Nd values of ~-7 to values of ~-9, consistent with a change in the style of deep-ocean circulation but >10 Myr after a change in bottom water oxygenation conditions. A similar, but more poorly dated, trend exists in e-Nd data from DSDP Site 386. The Campanian e-Nd transition observed in the North Atlantic records is also seen in the South Atlantic and proto-Indian Ocean, implying a widespread and synchronous change in deep-ocean circulation. Although a unique explanation does not exist for the change at present, we favor an interpretation that invokes Late Cretaceous climatic cooling as a driver for the formation of Southern Component Water, which flowed northward from the Southern Ocean and into the North Atlantic and proto-Indian Oceans.