Wikileaks and the challenge of the “Fifth Estate”

The Time magazine ‘Person of theYear’ award is a venerable institution. Established by Time’s founder Henry Luce in 1927 as ‘Man of the Year’, it is an annual award given to ‘a person, couple, group, idea, place, or machine that ‘for better or for worse ... has done the most to influence the events of the year’ (Time 2002, p. 1). In 2010, the award was given to Mark Zuckerberg, the founder and CEO of the social networking site Facebook.There was, however, a strong campaign for the ‘People’s Choice’ award to be given to Julian Assange, the founder and editor-in-chief of Wikileaks, the online whistleblowing site. Earlier in the year Wikileaks had released more than 250 000 US government diplomatic cables through the internet, and the subsequent controver- sies around the actions of Wikileaks and Assange came to be known worldwide as ‘Cablegate’. The focus of this chapter is not on the implications of ‘Cablegate’ for international diplomacy, which continue to have great significance, but rather upon what the emergence of Wikileaks has meant for journalism, and whether it provides insights into the future of journalism. Both Facebook and Wikileaks, as well as social media platforms such as Twitter and YouTube, and independent media practices such as blogging, citizen journalism and crowdsourcing, are manifestations of the rise of social media, or what has also been termed web 2.0.The term ‘web 2.0’ was coined by Tim O’Reilly, and captures the rise of online social media platforms and services, that better realise the collaborative potential of digitally networked media. They do this by moving from the relatively static, top-down notions of interactivity that informed early internet development, towards more open and evolutionary models that better harness collective intelligence by enabling users to become the creators and collaborators in the development of online media content (Musser and O’Reilly 2007; Bruns 2008).

Standardisation of digital human models

Digital human models (DHM) have evolved as useful tools for ergonomic workplace design and product development, and found in various industries and education. DHM systems which dominate the market were developed for specific purposes and differ significantly, which is not only reflected in non-compatible results of DHM simulations, but also provoking misunderstanding of how DHM simulations relate to real world problems. While DHM developers are restricted by uncertainty about the user need and lack of model data related standards, users are confined to one specific product and cannot exchange results, or upgrade to another DHM system, as their previous results would be rendered worthless. Furthermore, origin and validity of anthropometric and biomechanical data is not transparent to the user. The lack of standardisation in DHM systems has become a major roadblock in further system development, affecting all stakeholders in the DHM industry. Evidently, a framework for standardising digital human models is necessary to overcome current obstructions.

Models of collective cell behaviour with crowding effects : comparing lattice-based and lattice-free approaches

Individual-based models describing the migration and proliferation of a population of cells frequently restrict the cells to a predefined lattice. An implicit assumption of this type of lattice based model is that a proliferative population will always eventually fill the lattice. Here we develop a new lattice-free individual-based model that incorporates cell-to-cell crowding effects. We also derive approximate mean-field descriptions for the lattice-free model in two special cases motivated by commonly used experimental setups. Lattice-free simulation results are compared to these mean-field descriptions and to a corresponding lattice-based model. Data from a proliferation experiment is used to estimate the parameters for the new model, including the cell proliferation rate, showing that the model fits the data well. An important aspect of the lattice-free model is that the confluent cell density is not predefined, as with lattice-based models, but an emergent model property. As a consequence of the more realistic, irregular configuration of cells in the lattice-free model, the population growth rate is much slower at high cell densities and the population cannot reach the same confluent density as an equivalent lattice-based model.

Robust performance analysis on YAWL process models with advanced constructs

The importance of actively managing and analyzing business processes is acknowledged more than ever in organizations nowadays. Business processes form an essential part of an organization and their ap-plication areas are manifold. Most organizations keep records of various activities that have been carried out for auditing purposes, but they are rarely used for analysis purposes. This paper describes the design and implementation of a process analysis tool that replays, analyzes and visualizes a variety of performance metrics using a process definition and its execution logs. Performing performance analysis on existing and planned process models offers a great way for organizations to detect bottlenecks within their processes and allow them to make more effective process improvement decisions. Our technique is applied to processes modeled in the YAWL language. Execution logs of process instances are compared against the corresponding YAWL process model and replayed in a robust manner, taking into account any noise in the logs. Finally, performance characteristics, obtained from replaying the log in the model, are projected onto the model.

Accuracy of rate estimation using relaxed-clock models with a critical focus on the early metazoan radiation

In recent years, a number of phylogenetic methods have been developed for estimating molecular rates and divergence dates under models that relax the molecular clock constraint by allowing rate change throughout the tree. These methods are being used with increasing frequency, but there have been few studies into their accuracy. We tested the accuracy of several relaxed-clock methods (penalized likelihood and Bayesian inference using various models of rate change) using nucleotide sequences simulated on a nine-taxon tree. When the sequences evolved with a constant rate, the methods were able to infer rates accurately, but estimates were more precise when a molecular clock was assumed. When the sequences evolved under a model of autocorrelated rate change, rates were accurately estimated using penalized likelihood and by Bayesian inference using lognormal and exponential models of rate change, while other models did not perform as well. When the sequences evolved under a model of uncorrelated rate change, only Bayesian inference using an exponential rate model performed well. Collectively, the results provide a strong recommendation for using the exponential model of rate change if a conservative approach to divergence time estimation is required. A case study is presented in which we use a simulation-based approach to examine the hypothesis of elevated rates in the Cambrian period, and it is found that these high rate estimates might be an artifact of the rate estimation method. If this bias is present, then the ages of metazoan divergences would be systematically underestimated. The results of this study have implications for studies of molecular rates and divergence dates.

A tan in a test tube -in vitro models for investigating ultraviolet radiation-induced damage in skin

Presently, global rates of skin cancers induced by ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure are on the rise. In view of this, current knowledge gaps in the biology of photocarcinogenesis and skin cancer progression urgently need to be addressed. One factor that has limited skin cancer research has been the need for a reproducible and physiologically-relevant model able to represent the complexity of human skin. This review outlines the main currently-used in vitro models of UVR-induced skin damage. This includes the use of conventional two-dimensional cell culture techniques and the major animal models that have been employed in photobiology and photocarcinogenesis research. Additionally, the progression towards the use of cultured skin explants and tissue-engineered skin constructs, and their utility as models of native skin's responses to UVR are described. The inherent advantages and disadvantages of these in vitro systems are also discussed.

Chinese online literature : creative consumers and evolving business models

Purpose – The internet is transforming possibilities for creative interaction, experimentation and cultural consumption in China and raising important questions about the role that “publishers” might play in an open and networked digital world. The purpose of this paper is to consider the role that copyright is playing in the growth of a publishing industry that is being “born digital”. Design/methodology/approach – The paper approaches online literature as an example of a creative industry that is generating value for a wider creative economy through its social network market functions. It builds on the social network market definition of the creative industries proposed by Potts et al. and uses this definition to interrogate the role that copyright plays in a rapidly-evolving creative economy. Findings – The rapid growth of a market for crowd-sourced content is combining with growing commercial freedom in cultural space to produce a dynamic landscape of business model experimentation. Using the social web to engage audiences, generate content, establish popularity and build reputation and then converting those assets into profit through less networked channels appears to be a driving strategy in the expansion of wider creative industries markets in China. Originality/value – At a moment when publishing industries all over the world are struggling to come to terms with digital technology, the emergence of a rapidly-growing area of publishing that is being born digital offers important clues about the future of publishing and what social network markets might mean for the role of copyright in a digital age.

A hierarchical evolutionary algorithmic design (HEAD) system for generating and evolving building design models

This thesis develops a detailed conceptual design method and a system software architecture defined with a parametric and generative evolutionary design system to support an integrated interdisciplinary building design approach. The research recognises the need to shift design efforts toward the earliest phases of the design process to support crucial design decisions that have a substantial cost implication on the overall project budget. The overall motivation of the research is to improve the quality of designs produced at the author's employer, the General Directorate of Major Works (GDMW) of the Saudi Arabian Armed Forces. GDMW produces many buildings that have standard requirements, across a wide range of environmental and social circumstances. A rapid means of customising designs for local circumstances would have significant benefits. The research considers the use of evolutionary genetic algorithms in the design process and the ability to generate and assess a wider range of potential design solutions than a human could manage. This wider ranging assessment, during the early stages of the design process, means that the generated solutions will be more appropriate for the defined design problem. The research work proposes a design method and system that promotes a collaborative relationship between human creativity and the computer capability. The tectonic design approach is adopted as a process oriented design that values the process of design as much as the product. The aim is to connect the evolutionary systems to performance assessment applications, which are used as prioritised fitness functions. This will produce design solutions that respond to their environmental and function requirements. This integrated, interdisciplinary approach to design will produce solutions through a design process that considers and balances the requirements of all aspects of the design. Since this thesis covers a wide area of research material, 'methodological pluralism' approach was used, incorporating both prescriptive and descriptive research methods. Multiple models of research were combined and the overall research was undertaken following three main stages, conceptualisation, developmental and evaluation. The first two stages lay the foundations for the specification of the proposed system where key aspects of the system that have not previously been proven in the literature, were implemented to test the feasibility of the system. As a result of combining the existing knowledge in the area with the newlyverified key aspects of the proposed system, this research can form the base for a future software development project. The evaluation stage, which includes building the prototype system to test and evaluate the system performance based on the criteria defined in the earlier stage, is not within the scope this thesis. The research results in a conceptual design method and a proposed system software architecture. The proposed system is called the 'Hierarchical Evolutionary Algorithmic Design (HEAD) System'. The HEAD system has shown to be feasible through the initial illustrative paper-based simulation. The HEAD system consists of the two main components - 'Design Schema' and the 'Synthesis Algorithms'. The HEAD system reflects the major research contribution in the way it is conceptualised, while secondary contributions are achieved within the system components. The design schema provides constraints on the generation of designs, thus enabling the designer to create a wide range of potential designs that can then be analysed for desirable characteristics. The design schema supports the digital representation of the human creativity of designers into a dynamic design framework that can be encoded and then executed through the use of evolutionary genetic algorithms. The design schema incorporates 2D and 3D geometry and graph theory for space layout planning and building formation using the Lowest Common Design Denominator (LCDD) of a parameterised 2D module and a 3D structural module. This provides a bridge between the standard adjacency requirements and the evolutionary system. The use of graphs as an input to the evolutionary algorithm supports the introduction of constraints in a way that is not supported by standard evolutionary techniques. The process of design synthesis is guided as a higher level description of the building that supports geometrical constraints. The Synthesis Algorithms component analyses designs at four levels, 'Room', 'Layout', 'Building' and 'Optimisation'. At each level multiple fitness functions are embedded into the genetic algorithm to target the specific requirements of the relevant decomposed part of the design problem. Decomposing the design problem to allow for the design requirements of each level to be dealt with separately and then reassembling them in a bottom up approach reduces the generation of non-viable solutions through constraining the options available at the next higher level. The iterative approach, in exploring the range of design solutions through modification of the design schema as the understanding of the design problem improves, assists in identifying conflicts in the design requirements. Additionally, the hierarchical set-up allows the embedding of multiple fitness functions into the genetic algorithm, each relevant to a specific level. This supports an integrated multi-level, multi-disciplinary approach. The HEAD system promotes a collaborative relationship between human creativity and the computer capability. The design schema component, as the input to the procedural algorithms, enables the encoding of certain aspects of the designer's subjective creativity. By focusing on finding solutions for the relevant sub-problems at the appropriate levels of detail, the hierarchical nature of the system assist in the design decision-making process.

Extending persistent monitoring by combining ocean models and Markov decision processes

Ocean processes are complex and have high variability in both time and space. Thus, ocean scientists must collect data over long time periods to obtain a synoptic view of ocean processes and resolve their spatiotemporal variability. One way to perform these persistent observations is to utilise an autonomous vehicle that can remain on deployment for long time periods. However, such vehicles are generally underactuated and slow moving. A challenge for persistent monitoring with these vehicles is dealing with currents while executing a prescribed path or mission. Here we present a path planning method for persistent monitoring that exploits ocean currents to increase navigational accuracy and reduce energy consumption.

Outsourcing and cutting choice in private hospital menus – does it impact on patient foodservice satisfaction?

Patient satisfaction with foodservices is multidimensional. It is well recognised that food and other aspects of foodservice delivery are important elements of patients overall perception of the hospital experience. This study aimed to determine whether menu changes in 2008 at an acute private hospital, considered negative by the dietetic staff, would affect patient satisfaction with the foodservice. Changes to the menu, secondary to the refurbishment of the foodservice facilities decreased the number of choices at breakfast from six to four, and altered the dessert menu to include a larger proportion of commercially produced products. The Acute Care Hospital Foodservice Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire (ACHFPSQ) was utilised to assess patient satisfaction with the menu changes, as it has proven accuracy and reliability in measuring patient satisfaction. Results of the survey (n=306) were compared to data with previous ACHFPSQ surveys conducted annually since 2003. Data analysed included overall foodservice satisfaction and four dimensions of foodservice satisfaction: food quality, meal service quality, staff/service issues and the physical environment. Satisfaction targets were set at 4 (scale 1–5) for each foodservice dimension. Analysis showed that despite changes to the menu, overall foodservice satisfaction rated high, with a score of 4.3. Eighty-six percent of patients rated the foodservice as either ‘very good’ or ‘good’. The four foodservice dimensions were rated highly (4.2–4.8). Findings were consistent with previous survey results, demonstrating a high level of patient satisfaction across all dimensions of the foodservice, despite changes to the menu. The annual ACHFPSQ was of value to this practice question.

Applying Bayesian hierarchical models to examine motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections

Motorcycles are overrepresented in road traffic crashes and particularly vulnerable at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to identify causal factors affecting the motorcycle crashes at both four-legged and T signalized intersections. Treating the data in time-series cross-section panels, this study explores different Hierarchical Poisson models and found that the model allowing autoregressive lag 1 dependent specification in the error term is the most suitable. Results show that the number of lanes at the four-legged signalized intersections significantly increases motorcycle crashes largely because of the higher exposure resulting from higher motorcycle accumulation at the stop line. Furthermore, the presence of a wide median and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of four-legged intersections exacerbate this potential hazard. For T signalized intersections, the presence of exclusive right-turn lane at both major and minor roadways and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of T intersections increases motorcycle crashes. Motorcycle crashes increase on high-speed roadways because they are more vulnerable and less likely to react in time during conflicts. The presence of red light cameras reduces motorcycle crashes significantly for both four-legged and T intersections. With the red-light camera, motorcycles are less exposed to conflicts because it is observed that they are more disciplined in queuing at the stop line and less likely to jump start at the start of green.

An investigation on multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes using log-linear models

Motorcyclists are the most crash-prone road-user group in many Asian countries including Singapore; however, factors influencing motorcycle crashes are still not well understood. This study examines the effects of various roadway characteristics, traffic control measures and environmental factors on motorcycle crashes at different location types including expressways and intersections. Using techniques of categorical data analysis, this study has developed a set of log-linear models to investigate multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes in Singapore. Motorcycle crash risks in different circumstances have been calculated after controlling for the exposure estimated by the induced exposure technique. Results show that night-time influence increases crash risks of motorcycles particularly during merging and diverging manoeuvres on expressways, and turning manoeuvres at intersections. Riders appear to exercise more care while riding on wet road surfaces particularly during night. Many hazardous interactions at intersections tend to be related to the failure of drivers to notice a motorcycle as well as to judge correctly the speed/distance of an oncoming motorcycle. Road side conflicts due to stopping/waiting vehicles and interactions with opposing traffic on undivided roads have been found to be as detrimental factors on motorcycle safety along arterial, main and local roads away from intersections. Based on the findings of this study, several targeted countermeasures in the form of legislations, rider training, and safety awareness programmes have been recommended.

Bayesian hierarchical analysis on crash prediction models

Traditional crash prediction models, such as generalized linear regression models, are incapable of taking into account the multilevel data structure, which extensively exists in crash data. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations can lead to the production of models giving unreliable and biased estimates of unknowns. This study innovatively proposes a -level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level – Traffic site level – Traffic crash level – Driver-vehicle unit level – Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To properly model the potential cross-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of Bayesian hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is introduced and recommended. The proposed method is illustrated in an individual-severity analysis of intersection crashes using the Singapore crash records. This study proved the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and demonstrated the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical method in modeling multilevel structure of traffic crash data.

Isotactics as a foundation for alignment and abstraction of behavioral models

There are many use cases in business process management that require the comparison of behavioral models. For instance, verifying equivalence is the basis for assessing whether a technical workflow correctly implements a business process, or whether a process realization conforms to a reference process. This paper proposes an equivalence relation for models that describe behaviors based on the concurrency semantics of net theory and for which an alignment relation has been defined. This equivalence, called isotactics, preserves the level of concurrency of aligned operations. Furthermore, we elaborate on the conditions under which an alignment relation can be classified as an abstraction. Finally, we show that alignment relations induced by structural refinements of behavioral models are indeed behavioral abstractions.

Numerical methods and analysis for a class of fractional advection-dispersion models

In this paper, a class of fractional advection–dispersion models (FADMs) is considered. These models include five fractional advection–dispersion models, i.e., the time FADM, the mobile/immobile time FADM with a time Caputo fractional derivative 0 < γ < 1, the space FADM with two sides Riemann–Liouville derivatives, the time–space FADM and the time fractional advection–diffusion-wave model with damping with index 1 < γ < 2. These equations can be used to simulate the regional-scale anomalous dispersion with heavy tails. We propose computationally effective implicit numerical methods for these FADMs. The stability and convergence of the implicit numerical methods are analysed and compared systematically. Finally, some results are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of theoretical analysis.